Hey gang, it’s me, Dr. Steve, your back porch professor. I hope you’re all having a wonderful weekend, and I’ve got some breaking news here that’s promising to make it even more wonderful. There is a brand new pullout on Alberta independence and the larger Wexit movement, which involves the Western provinces seceding from Ottawa, and it’s absolutely shocking Canadian liberals. It’s a poll from the Western Standard. They’re a Canadian conservative pro-independence website, and the poll is astonishing for sure. 94% of respondents believe that Alberta is being shortchanged by Ottawa. Get this. 86% said Alberta should take further steps towards full sovereignty.

And here’s the shocker. 87% of respondents said they would vote for independence if a referendum were held tomorrow. 72% said that Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP, the United Conservative Party, the main party in Alberta, should lead the sovereignty movement, and 62% said it should be a core priority for the party. And the poll found comparable independence support in BC and British Columbia, not in the urban or cosmopolitan areas like Vancouver, but in the more rural areas for sure. Again, an astonishing 70% of British Columbians in this poll supported a referendum on independence, and 90% of Saskatchewan respondents favored a referendum.

So if this poll is anywhere near to being accurate, this is an absolute bombshell. Now, the polling that was done shortly after Mark Carney’s and the Liberal Party’s re-election showed more modest support, around 40% in both Alberta and Saskatchewan. Still a very formidable number, but that’s polling from the more liberal outlets like Angus Reid. If the Western standard has its fingers accurately on the pulse of independence sentiments among Albertans and the Western provinces, again, Canada is going to split apart mere months from now. And it’s going to be one of the single biggest political earthquakes in our lifetimes.

Now, if you don’t know what’s really at the heart of this dissatisfaction with Ottawa and the Confederation is the sense that Albertans and the West as a whole have that they are constantly taken advantage of by the East. So over the past 23 years, Alberta has sent $540 billion to the rest of Canada. That’s more than the entire GDP of most countries. Alberta is just about 12% of Canada’s population, but it contributes a disproportionate 17% of all federal tax revenues. That’s 43% more than their fair share based on population alone. Every single year, Alberta sends between $17 to $27 billion more to Ottawa than it receives back.

To put that in perspective, Nova Scotia receives $1.7 billion every year in what are called equalization payments. So that allows them to offer the same social services to their population as the rest of the country, despite their economic or population status. But that $1.7 billion represents nearly 30% of Nova Scotia’s entire provincial budget. And where does that money come from? Alberta’s oil workers, their taxpayers, the same provinces that lecture Alberta about dirty oil and green energy and environmental apocalypticism have no problem cashing checks funded by that very same oil revenue. And that’s precisely why Albertans increasingly want to leave and it’s exactly why Ottawa can’t afford to lose them.

Alberta isn’t just any province. It’s an energy superpower. In 2024, Alberta’s energy production was worth $140 billion. Alberta contributes over $70 billion to Canada’s GDP through energy production alone. And Premier Danielle Smith revealed that if Alberta had built the pipelines that it needed, so that would be the Northern Gateway, the Keystone pipeline, of course, the Energy East pipeline, the province would have an additional 2.5 million barrels per day of production capacity. That translates to $55 billion per year in additional GDP and $17 billion for the provincial government alone. But of course, like we saw during the Biden era, the Liberal policies in Ottawa are deliberately impeding all of these pipelines.

And so separation isn’t just talk anymore. Alberta has officially lowered the threshold for their referendum petitions and the Alberta Prosperity Project is already collecting the 177,000 signatures needed to trigger a vote. And most analysts agree that if Alberta goes, SASQ will shortly follow and then Manitoba and then possibly BC. BC would be completely alienated geographically from Ottawa. So there would be little point in staying, especially given the fact that if Alberta leaves, Ottawa is going to be broke. The financial devastation for the rest of Canada would literally be catastrophic. The federal equalization program, it would lose billions of dollars annually just from Alberta’s direct contribution.

Ontario would have to shoulder an estimated additional $1 to $2 billion per year just to maintain current transfer payments to the recipient provinces. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, he’s already indicated he’s not standing in the way of a separation vote in his province. And if the Western standards latest poll, this bombshell poll is accurate, then it looks like a referendum like that is inevitable. It’s just baked into the cake of those pro-independence sentiments. And remember, we talked about this last week, but it’s not just the West that’s considering independence. Quebec nationalism is back with a vengeance, particularly among young people.

And Quebec’s support for sovereignty among young people has skyrocketed 56% among 18 to 34 year olds. The highest since the 1995 referendum when the no side barely won by half a percentage point. Again, Quebec nationalism has been surging of late. There have been a number of articles and reports on this. It’s a surge that inevitably fosters secessionist sentiments, which themselves lead inevitably to independence referendums. And independence referendums have the highest voter turnout of any election. The last one in 1995 in Quebec had a 90% voter turnout. Independence referendums consistently exemplify the highest voter turnout for any election.

Those voters disproportionately vote in favor of the referendum. So obviously, we keep it going very closely on the latest developments going on here because this is happening. Separation centers in both the West and the East do appear to be growing, which means we may be just months away from one of the biggest political earthquakes of our lives. So what do you guys think? You got to let me know in the comments down below. Do you think there’s going to be a referendum in Alberta in mere months? Let us know in the comments down below.

And as always, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button for breaking news and analysis. You’re not going to hear anywhere else. Love you guys. God bless. [tr:trw].

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