It’s almost like the media could quiet itself, and that worries me. I don’t think the media is going to be meaningful constraints on Trump. I think the one real constraint on him, because he loves ratings, is going to be the bond market and its impact on the stock market. Hey guys, Rafi here from The Endgame Investor, and today we’re going to talk about a very special situation in the bond market that we haven’t seen for decades. I had to look back in history to see if what is happening now has ever happened before, and the answer is yes.

And I came across a clip which we’ll get to at the end of the video from MSNBC that most wonderful of all mainstream media channels that has signaled that they are going to attack President Trump using this angle, and they will be partially correct in their attacks, and because of Trump’s weak points, he probably will not be able to counter those attacks. And so the most important thing for people to keep in mind is that Trump, the Trump administration, no matter how good the cabinet picks are, and some of them are very good.

Some of them are not good at all. It’s a mixed bag, which is Trump, which is what he was last term, and he will be this term. Hopefully it will be better than last term. That’s not that much of an act to follow. And before people accuse me of being anti-Trump, I did not vote in this election, though I do have the ability to vote technically. I’m a Florida voter, so I’ve figured that it wasn’t really worth it for me to go through the trouble. But had I voted, I would have voted for Trump, and I was very relieved that Trump was elected.

So no, I don’t have Trump derangement syndrome. I’m just realistic. And though I’m very happy about Matt Gaetz, and especially Robert F. Kennedy, and some of Trump’s other cabinet picks, I do understand that he is a very flawed economic individual that does not understand economics, certainly not Austrian economics, and he will not stop the endgame, and the left will attack him on this for the wrong reasons for sure, but we’ll get into that at the end of the video. For now, we’re going to go into the bond market and that special situation, which is rates being cut, and at the same time, long-term interest rates rising.

Has this ever happened before? The answer is yes, it has, but not for a very long time. We’re going to get into it right now. Let’s roll the tape. By the way, this video is sponsored by nobody, but if you want to support this channel, then sign up to subscribe to the endgame investor link in the description below. You will get a more literary form of this video in better terms because I’m a better writer than I am a video maker. I just do this on the fly off the cuff. Never thought I was going to be able to do this.

The free post on the endgame investor, which you can read without becoming a paid subscriber, is on my thoughts about the Trump administration and where America is headed now. I think you will find it very honest and balanced, and it’s actually what I think. And if you also want to support this channel another way, you can buy a dirty man safe using the code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off. Use the link in the description below, and you can also become my patron on Patreon, where I give a biblical angle on monetary and economic topics from the Bible.

Well, what else would be biblical? Anyway, let’s go on with today’s situation in the bottom market that hasn’t shown up since 1981. First of all, this is being recorded on Monday, November 18th, and this is the thinnest possible trend that I could draw on this chart here. This is 10 year yields, and you can see that the trend line touches exactly going back to October 2023, which was a very bad month and touching again around May, April, May 2024. And then finally, we’re touching it again. This is 10 year yields and the trend line is being touched right now.

If this trend line breaks, we should have a pattern of higher highs confirmed in the 10 year yield that could break any day. And in that context, let’s see what’s happening to the bond market today that hasn’t happened in decades. So has this ever happened before two months so far? What is this talking about? You have the red line, which is the effective federal funds rate. That is the rate that the Fed either hikes or cuts when they say they’re hiking or cutting rates. That’s what the hiker cut. And you can see that since September, it has been cut 50 basis points here, another 25 basis points a few days ago.

And since then we’ve had 10 year yields going up from about 3.7, 3.8%, something like that to what are they now 4.43%, meaning 10 year yields are headed higher as short term yields, the overnight yield in specific is headed lower. Has this ever happened before? The answer is yes. If you go back to the chart going all the way back to the 1960s, this is the first time it shows up on the chart that is from July 1969 to June 1970. The red line here is the effective federal funds rate. And we see that it is being cut here from 1969 to 1970.

And during that time, 10 year yields are headed generally higher from what looks to be about 6% or so, 6.5% to it looks around 8%. They went up substantially. They zigzagged a little bit, but overall, 10 year yields were higher as overnight yields went lower in the late 1960s to June 1970. And that was a total of 11 months. The next time this happened was July to September 1974. You can see here on the red line that the effective federal funds rate went down for about 12.5% to about 11%. That was substantial cutting by the Federal Reserve back then.

And 10 year yields went up from about 7.5% to what looks to be about 8.2%, something like that. We have still the general trend here where at the beginning of a rate cutting cycle, 10 year yields head higher and they kept heading higher into the 1970s gradually. The next time this happened was twice in 1981. You have January to March 1981 here and also June to October 1981, two months over here, three months over here. The effective federal funds went pretty wild here because Volcker was responding to monetary aggregates rather than to economic conditions.

So it wavered up and down in a little bit of a volatile pattern. But overall, you see here that the effective federal funds rate, the overnight rate went from about 18%, 19% down to 15%. And during that time, 10 year yields went higher. And also here as rates peaked out at about 18% or higher, went down to about a little below 15% here and 10 year yields went from 12.5% to just over 15% in that same timeframe. Both happened in 1981. And what do all those dates have in common? Well, consider that it has not happened once.

We have not had a situation where the effective federal funds rate, the rate that the Fed hikes or cuts, we have not had a situation since 1981 where that rate is cut and the 10 year yield goes up. That has not happened at all since 1981, but it is happening now. Now, what do these dates all have in common? 1981, 1974, 1960, 1970, they all happened in the context of a bond bear market. The bond bear market lasted from 1946 to 1981. And the only time when 10 year yields went higher as short term yields, the overnight yield that is controlled by the Fed went lower was cut.

The only time that ever happened was during a bond bear market. So what is this signaling to me that we are in a bond bear market? I think we’ve known that since 2020, but the fact that 10 year yields are headed higher while overnight yields are being cut by the Fed and that is actually happening is a signal that this is definitely a bond bear market. Now let’s get to that clip from MSNBC. I think the one real constraint on him because he loves ratings is going to be the bond market and its impact on the stock market because Trump loves ratings.

Well, you know who doesn’t love ratings? MSNBC. The New York Times. Viewers flee MSNBC and flock to Fox News in wake of election. I thought I’m a fan of Fox News. I can’t stand Fox News, but it’s not as bad as MSNBC for sure. Let’s just gloat a little bit. The Rachel Maddow show featuring the world’s most famous lesbian, the liberal network’s highest rated program drew 1.3 million viewers on Monday, about a million shy of her October average. According to Nielsen, in a crucial ratings metric, viewers under the age of 54, it was the least watched edition of the show since April 2022.

That performance mirrors much of what has been happening at MSNBC in the weeks since Trump’s election win. MSNBC has averaged 500,000 viewers since election day and 39% decline compared with the network’s average in October and prime time. MSNBC’s audience has declined 53% according to the Nielsen data. And so let’s listen to this again, folks. I think the one real constraint on him because he loves ratings is going to be the bond market and its impact on the stock market. What is that? Are they like the Pillsbury dual boy or something? They sound like it.

When it comes to deportation, when it comes to excessive tax cuts, when it comes to excessive tariffs, all that is going to be wildly inflationary. The bond market’s not going to tolerate it. The bond market driving interest rates, mortgage rates, et cetera, is going to have a real damaging effect on the stock market that he will pay attention to. Okay. So there’s three things here. When it comes to first deportations, he thinks that’s going to affect the bond market negatively. No, not so much. A country needs its borders. People that are there illegally need to be deported.

Otherwise, the country doesn’t have any borders in a country that doesn’t have any borders does not survive. So no, that’s not going to negatively affect the bond market. And how pretty do you attack excessive tax cuts and excessive tariffs in the same sentence? A tariff is a tax. So you’re saying that both excessive tax cuts and excessive taxes at the same time are going to mess up the bond market. What the hell is wrong with these people? Doesn’t anyone notice this? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. How can both excessive taxes and excessive tax cuts both impact the bond market negatively? Does that make any sense? No.

And what is an excessive tax cut? Is excessive tax cut, you know, you’re not going to steal as much from your people. That’s that you’re going to call that. That’s that’s disgusting. Tax cuts are justice. Any tax cut is good. There is no such thing as an excessive tax cut. There is such a thing as excessive idiots from MSNBC. But one thing he does have a point about is that excessive tariffs are going to negatively affect the bond market. And that is Trump’s main weakness that he does not understand trade, does not understand global trade.

This is a weakness that he had in his last administration. It’s a weakness that he’s going to have in this administration. It seems sadly an evil always attacks from the weak point and they’re going to attack Trump on this. But the fact is that we are in a bond bear market due to the excessive spending and the insane monetary policies of the United States since 1971. This was a long time coming. There is nothing Trump can do to stop it. There is an endgame coming. The left is going to attack him for it, even though he’s not fully responsible for it.

But the point is, is he’s not going to stop it. You have to be prepared for that. You have to be prepared for the left’s attacks on him due to the incoming endgame. And as we see long-term yields spiral out of control, the Fed will have to embark on one final printing round under a Trump administration who will oversee the hyperinflationary end of the dollar, the end of the American monetary empire. This is going to happen no matter who is president. Trump cannot stop it. But what he can do is cut off the pharma industrial complex, cut off the military industrial complex, cut off the education industrial complex, and get people to at least go back to understanding that there are two genders, there are men, and there are women, and mutilating the genitalia of children is a bad thing.

That much he can do, and I support that. In the meantime, don’t stop stacking. Trump is not going to save the dollar. Gold and silver are the real money. The dollar is just a derivative, and that will be revealed under a second Trump administration. And by the end of this administration, I don’t think outlets like MSNBC are going to exist anymore. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.