Are Tariffs Already Hurting the Economy? | I Allegedly

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Summary

➡ Dan of I Allegedly attended a hardware show in Las Vegas and noticed a significant decrease in attendance. He speculates that this could be due to tariffs affecting travel, as the top three countries traveling to Vegas are Canada, Mexico, and Great Britain. He also mentions that air travel in February was down by 13%, and even places like Disney and Orlando are seeing fewer visitors. Dan wonders if this is a sign of economic trouble, as credit card delinquencies are at a 13-year high, suggesting people might not have enough money.

 

Transcript

Hey, it’s Dan. Welcome back. You’re watching I Allegedly, and I got a good one for you today because I was invited to the hard work show, and in Las Vegas, and this show is amazing, first of all. But, guys, it’s dead. Absolutely dead. I had lunch over the weekend with some friends that are in this industry, and they were blown away. Oh my gosh, you got a ticket to that. You’re so lucky. And so, guys, is this the terra faction that’s making this place dead? Now, think about this. As I’m sitting there walking through this place, I mean, there’s everything.

Bunch of cool stuff. And I’ll show it to you later. I’ll do a side little video to show you everything you’ve seen here. The thing about this is that there is a local economist, Mike McQueen, that wrote an article that I included below talking about how, hey, are the tariff actions already showing up? Is this the result of the tariff actions? In other words, are people not traveling around the country to places like Las Vegas because of the tariffs? Now, think about this. Number one, you know, traveler to Vegas, out of the country, Canada, okay? Well, number two is Mexico.

Number three is Great Britain, which blew me away. I thought it would be Asia or someplace else, but that’s the same. Read the article, because it’s really, really well written and good. But the point is that you’ve got, you know, an area that’s completely off. When I hopped into the cab to get here, I was talking to the cab driver, and I’m like, hey, do you think it’s off? Do you think it’s slower? And he says, oh, it’s like 70% off. Now, here’s a guy that sits there and tells me that he waited an hour at the hotel to pick up a fare, which is crazy.

He said, doesn’t happen like this. Every fare is a short trip. Everybody that’s picking up right now has one person in the cab. That’s it. Where back in the day, you would have five people from one company that were coming out and would travel to an event like this. Now, again, you can sit there and say, oh, what’s the cab driver know? No, no, these are the guys that know everything. And you can sit there and say, oh, Uber and everybody’s doing different things like that. No, no, no, no, no. People want the convenience of a cab.

It’s on your expense account. But this is crazy, guys. So air travel in February, we have those numbers, is off 13% right now. Significant. Noticable. You know? Guys, check this out. I mean, this is the big trade show for the hardware industry. And it is, it’s very cool, guys. I mean, one thing that was really nice was they have the new product top secret area, and you’re not allowed to film in there. And I’m like, I mean, I saw all these different cool gadgets and cool things for the house. But I’m like, oh, my God, I want to film that.

I want to film that. You can’t film any of it. And they literally walk with you and make it so that you don’t pull your camera out and copy things. But you know those little propane tanks that are a pain to refill, people buy them and throw them away? A company that developed a six-pack, you plug it in, you can refill six of them at a time. I was like, that is super cool. Unbelievable. But okay, you know, you’ve got the Taiwan section here. So you have Asia really well represented. But you just don’t have people walking through the show.

Now, midday, you know, just amazing. Absolutely amazing. So Mike McQueen, the economist, had talked about how this is going to destroy everything, because the airlines are having major problems getting people booked. And you’re seeing, you know, places from around the globe that are not traveling. Now, the next area that’s having a big hit, you know, and you can say Vegas. Nobody has any money to gamble. Nobody is doing things like that right now. So it always blows me away when you go to a trade show and somebody didn’t show up for their booth. Trust me, they sold that booth.

But Orlando, you know, going to the whole Orlando area, Disney’s off right now. Disney’s outrageous. We talked about this how it costs so much money to go there. And the Disney cruise is outrageous. My daughter’s friend is getting married on a Disney cruise as we speak. And it was, you know, there’s a destination wedding where people were expected to pay for a ticket on the cruise ship at seven grand. Ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow, ow. I don’t like her that much. You know what I mean? It’s kind of funny. So is this the tariff or is this the beginning or the end? Look at this, guys.

This is the big show. This is it. Again, my friend said, get there early. It’s going to be packed. And again, this is not taking anything away from this show because this is, I mean, it’s super cool. And I mean, just everything you can see, I mean, from knives to the different products to different things that blow up for Christmas. I mean, there’s everything’s here except for people. So now they had the builder show a couple of weeks back last month. Did this take away from the audience? Totally different clientele, different buyers and things like that.

But wow, this is this is really something. So, you know, the other thing, great article was sent to me about credit card delinquencies are up right now. And you’ve got everything at a 13 year high as far as the amount of people that are behind. We’ve never seen this type of debt before. And here’s the thing that’s crazy is when you when you look at, you know, 2008 and you talk about, you know, that in their credit cards right now, one point three five, I believe, is the total number right now. But everybody’s behind. So a lot more to cover in this video.

But let me know what you think is this carrot related or is it just people just don’t have the cash? Let me know. Let me know. I want to remind you guys of a couple of things. And that is that if you are on the email list and everybody should be on the email list. Check your spam filter. Make sure you got the latest email in the video that I send out. And don’t forget that we have a private channel called I allegedly live and you can sign up at I allegedly TV. Put that in your browser.

And it’s all the uncensored stuff that we can’t talk about other places. I love doing that content and hearing back from you guys on that. But aren’t you just blown away by this, guys? Because I am. You know, just nobody here is just absolutely dead, absolutely dead. And everybody’s telling me they think the show’s off 70 percent. 70. And not just Canadians, guys. Wow. Now, a couple of things that are really interesting. Spoke to someone with a laminate floor company that didn’t want to go on camera. But they were talking about how the show is lighter than normal.

And I said, OK, is this a problem? What do you think? The economy is the guy scoffed and used a bad word when I brought up the carrots and said it has nothing to do with that. You’re seeing that less people are traveling, less people are sending people to events like this. And it’s the economy. So interesting theory. But he just scoffed at the tariff thing. It’s too soon to tell. Ask me that in six or eight months and then we’ll be able to have that conversation. OK. Now, the other thing is U.S. manufacturing output.

Reuters has a story that’s included below. And Reuters pulled a bunch of economists in that sector. And they thought originally think about this. Originally, they thought that U.S. manufacturing for the month of February would be down one tenth of one percent. Down, down, down. Then two weeks ago, Reuters does a story where they say manufacturing is going to be up three tenths of one percent. OK. Well, the numbers came in and they were up nine tenths of a percent. And they’re like, wow, this is amazing. You’ve got complete turnaround three times better than the economists thought.

But I love economists because one thing I always say is why don’t you tell us beforehand what you think is going to happen. What they thought was going to happen didn’t happen. So kind of fascinating. And then there is everything here. But guys, show’s open. OK. Not here half hours or anything like that. But the number one sector that went up. You guys want some safes? Jeez, look at that. The number one sector that’s up right now, automotive. Automotive manufacturing, automotive parts, automotive pieces. It’s amazing. That’s a safe. Look at that thing. So, very cool. OK.

Great, great event. And I like the tiny homes are great, I think. I think that that’s going to be huge. But what do you think about this? Is this a sign that the economy’s turning around or is it going to get worse? What do you think? But if you see a trade show like this, man, I think it’s odd. I really do. I’m not in the smaller section. I’m in the west hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center. Wow. Little handheld chainsaws. Those are super cool. Funny, last night there was a Tesla dealership here in Las Vegas that was attacked.

And they burned, you know, half a dozen cars. And the police presence here issued a press conference and stepped forward and said enough is enough. You know, I did that video on Tesla and I had people like me and they were furious with me. Oh, it’s good for one side, but not for the other. Hey, bonehead. And again, I would insert bad work here. I’m talking about the violence. You know, tell me what your opinion is. You know, let’s sit down and talk about it. But you want to sit there and burn a Tesla? Come on.

That’s insanity. Man, this is just super cool. I’m going to block the show and enjoy it, but there’s more to cover on this video. Well, it looks like my lawn guy is going to get fired. Look at this place. Look at this whole booth. Very cool. Now, a few things before I finish this video. And the first one is I spoke to someone that sells Christmas gear. Everything Christmas related to the sandwich you hang on your door, to the blow up stuff, to the lights, to the little figurines, to everything. And I said, oh, wow, people got to start ordering this stuff now so they can have it for Christmas.

He said, no, now would be too late. If you if you tried to order this stuff now, it would have been way too late. You’ve ordered this month and a half, two months ago. Wow. So but one thing that he said was he’s been to the show many times and is absolutely dead. And I said, do you think it’s, you know, related to the tariffs? And he used a bad word again and said, no, but you’re seeing a lot of people that have, you know, from Canada that don’t want to buy American manufactured products because of the tariffs.

And the 30 percent is just too much at this point. So I mean, you got barbecue, you just got everything, you know, how cool is the little robot that mows your lawn? And, you know, anyways, you haven’t seen anything yet. I mean, so much is going to happen with this. But when you see these companies that are affected by this, it does make you think. And J.D. Vance last Friday was in Michigan at a plastics manufacturing company. And he was talking about how they’re going to have a made in America section for the small business administration and that this is going to be a real big thing.

Now, here’s the thing about the SBA guys is that, you know, to get a loan to the SBA used to be like pulling teeth and jumping through hoops. And basically, you didn’t need the money if you got the money and then COVID hit and they just threw it out of an airplane, you know, and anybody living could have gotten it. Well, what they’ve done now is they want to deal with the manufacturing that we already have. There are 600,000 small manufacturers here in the United States that employ 6.6 million people. That’s wild to think about. And, you know, they do $277 billion right now in business before they do anything else.

So stay away from the drums. Wouldn’t that be a great thing to put in your booth with nobody walking on drums? Oh, yeah. Oh, my God. Let’s stay away from that. Anyways, the point of this manufacturing thing is that it’s going to be buy American, make it in America, get financing. Well, the SBA knows the drill and Loeffler, the new SBA, you know, chairman, president, whatever she’s called. She is talking about improving financing and making it easier. Now, here’s the thing that doesn’t make any sense. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is getting closed down. And basically, all these employees have been let go, and you’ve got, you know, bills shed.

You’ve got all these different things that are happening with that right now. And what they’re concerned about is risky lending. You don’t want to go out and borrow money at a high interest rate for your business. And that’s been there forever. People get turned down by banks all the time and have to resort to other things. But I’m just a huge believer in not borrowing money unless it’s going to propel things forward, even in your personal life. Buy a house, buy a car, that’s one thing. But you just pay off bills. A lot of people don’t have the discipline to do that.

So let me know what you think about this. I mean, again, I’m blown away. I’ll cover more of it. But, you know, everybody that’s here, that’s been here before, has told me how dead this is right now. Is this the shape of the economy, or is it something else? Let me know. Hello at iAllegedly.com. Don’t forget to like, subscribe to the channel, and I will see you guys very soon. Bye-bye. [tr:trw].

See more of I Allegedly on their Public Channel and the MPN I Allegedly channel.

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