➡ The article discusses the escalating conflict and potential for war, focusing on the impact on oil and gas facilities and the potential humanitarian crisis that could result from a destroyed power grid. It mentions the possibility of a ceasefire deal, but suggests it’s unlikely due to mistrust. The article also highlights the potential global impact, including civil unrest and political instability. It ends by questioning the cost and effectiveness of current military actions.
➡ The text discusses a costly military operation, possibly aimed at rescuing a pilot and probing for nuclear material. The author criticizes the use of funds for such operations, suggesting they could be better spent on healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The text also mentions failed peace talks and speculates about the true objectives of the operation. The author questions the perceived invincibility of the US military and suggests that the full story of the operation may never be known.
➡ The text discusses a complex military operation, suggesting it was aimed at gathering information about nuclear locations or capturing individuals for interrogation. It also mentions various attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Russia, Iran, and other locations, which could lead to a significant delay in oil supply even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The text also speculates about potential political implications, including the possibility of a military takeover in the U.S. and the postponement of elections.
➡ The text discusses potential political and military actions involving the U.S., Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries, and their possible effects on global oil supply and economy. It suggests that if conflicts escalate, Iran might target key oil facilities, disrupting oil supply and causing a global economic crisis. The text also mentions the potential for a food crisis due to the disruption of fertilizer transit. Lastly, it suggests that these issues could lead to increased global tensions and conflicts.
➡ The article discusses the escalating global tensions, starting with Russia, then the Middle East, and now the energy crisis. It suggests that these conflicts could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, particularly if the Iranian government falls and rogue elements decide to build a nuclear weapon. The author expresses concern about the current situation and encourages preparation for worst-case scenarios. He ends by mentioning upcoming interviews and thanking his audience for watching.

This is your World War 3 update. So here we are once again, another Sunday night, trying to find the signal through the noise. It looks like we’re staring down the barrel of a gun this week, guys, because it seems as though the decisive moment in this conflict very well may be coming today. I’m going to talk about the exfiltration of the pilot and what that all means and all the conflicting accounts with respect to that. I’m going to talk about the numerous oil and gas facilities that have been hit over the weekend, the prospect that is currently allegedly being deliberated by negotiators, according to the American and Israeli side.

Now, whether or not that is just an attempt to manipulate the markets or whether it’s real, and also highlighting what’s happening in Russia because not enough attention is being paid. The amount of attacks on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, their port infrastructure, in just the last two weeks. If it continues at this pace, I can’t see how Vladimir Putin does not take very serious escalatory action, because 4 million barrels of Russia’s 6 to 7 million barrels per day goes via sea. And the Ukrainians are just systematically chipping away at that. I mean, the volume and the scale of the attacks on Russian ports has been astounding.

And if that frequency and intensity continues, nobody’s going to be talking about what’s going on in Iran, believe it or not, even though that situation is really about to go off the rails, potentially. Unless there’s a taco situation. You just never know with these things. You really don’t. It’s a roll of the dice. History would dictate that, indeed, Trump will taco, but at the same time, right now, it seems like they’re just proceeding with reckless abandon and they very well could just flip the table, which they pretty much already have, because over the weekend, so much has happened.

I didn’t even bother making a video yesterday because there was so much controversy circulating. As many of you know, Trump made some very bellicose threats to the Iranian government, the Iranian people, the Islamic people, on Easter Sunday, of all things, and Easter Sunday, which is respected and treated with deference by Muslims because they revere Jesus as a prophet. Okay? Something that I can’t say is the case for all practitioners of the Judaic faith, but that’s another story. It’s just interesting that this whole mythos of Judeo Christian values is something that is acting as an ideological foundation for a lot of these conflicts when the evidence just simply doesn’t bear that out.

Now, to get into the details of what’s going on at the time of making this video. It is 9pm Central Standard Time. And there, there have been rumors circulating that there is a last ditch attempt to create a 48 hour or 48 day ceasefire deal. 45 day ceasefire deal. Excuse me. And all of this information is coming through Axios primarily. I believe it’s probably Barack Ravid and these guys are known to assist in their gaming of the markets, to leak this various information. A lot of this is coming from the western side, okay? And the Iranians have outright rejected any proposals from the United States, which should go without saying, because remember, even if they do accept a proposal, a ceasefire proposal in particular, they would have to assume that it was an attempt in order to shore up forces for the next round of escalation and, or just to commit more acts of perfidy and, and stab the Iranians in the back.

So this is why I think it is very unlikely that we are going to see a ceasefire. But you never know. We have to hope so, because quite frankly, this is the final rung of the escalation ladder. If Trump makes good on his promise and puts the Iranian people In the dark, 90 million people in the dark. I don’t think people truly appreciate, I mean, all of those books you read about electromagnetic pulse bringing down the power grid and how 90% of people would die after a year. And while those numbers might be slightly exaggerated, it still would be a humanitarian crisis on a scale probably never seen before.

These are not people that live in huts, okay? These are people who rely on a civilized, high value infrastructure which is there to support a higher standard of living and an urban lifestyle which does require electricity in order for everything to work. And if you don’t have, going into the summer season, if you don’t have air conditioning, this is a humanitarian crisis on a scale never before seen. If they do permanently destroy the Iranian power grid, this will be the biggest humanitarian crisis in history and it is going to cause a refugee crisis unlike any, but anything anybody has ever seen.

Okay? It’s not like these people are just going to be able to, you know, revert to a lower standard of living. It doesn’t happen that way because you need power to power the water pumps to grow the crops, to, you know, to transport things. If they’re gasoline and their diesel refinement facilities are taken offline. You know, they can’t do logistics to get food in the country. Millions of people will die and millions more will, will flee the country. And so what this means is that for you. In addition to all of that weighing on our collective conscience, we also have to deal with the fact that the Iranian response is going to be brutal.

They are going to destroy Saudi Aramco, they’re going to destroy the Yanbu port, which effectively right now is where they’re rerouting a lot of the oil that would have went through the Persian Gulf. So the Saudis are rerouting millions of barrels a day via this east west pipeline that they built, which was functioning I think at around 20% capacity prior to the war. It is going to be now functioning at full capacity, which I believe is 6 to 7 million barrels of oil per day and still falling well short of, you know, what they could have shipped through this raider for Moose.

And so that’s going to be a target. You’re going to see some of the biggest petrochemical facilities in the world, the biggest LNG facilities in the world taken offline. It is going to be the most destructive crisis in human history which could potentially see the deaths of tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of people, just by virtue of the epidemiological effects of lower standard of living in, in terms of the food prices, in terms of the social instability and political instability that will be caused as a result of this. Some of the knock on effects are going to be civil unrest across the globe in countries you ain’t never heard of.

All right? It is going to exacerbate every single point of contention across the map and it is going to increase the likelihood of a flare up of hostilities in places where there already are tensions. North Korea, in Japan, in China, in Taiwan, and what’s going on in Russia and Ukraine is already unprecedented. But that situation could very well go nuclear when nobody’s paying attention because Vladimir Putin, people are looking at him wondering like, what the hell are you doing? You’ve had 40% of your seaborne oil taken offline. And that was before the attacks of this weekend, which were numerous and it appears they’re only getting worse and worse.

So Iran today informed both Qatar and Turkey that their services mediators are no longer available and the messages from the US should no longer be relayed to Iran in the future. Now, I’m not sure if this is an attempt to game the markets, but of course the markets opened and oil was up about 2 to 3%. It then started to gradually drop to where it is now, where it’s trading kind of flat. And this is because Axios came up with the story that Witkoff was exchanging text messages with an intermediary from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, these places, and this is all from the Western side.

The Iranians are denying all of this as they have all along and as I’ve already articulated. I think we should presume at this point that he’s going to do it. And I still, it still seems even insane even for him, if he actually follows through with this. Because understand what this means. This is staring down the precipice, guys. This is it. I mean, the world changes forever if they proceed with taking this approach. And I think that one of the reasons why they’re thrashing around, despite the. The demonstration over the weekend of the American exfiltration prowess and their ability to drop a billion dollars to exfiltrate one pilot who is doing God knows what in there, bombing bridges, bombing power plants, doing whatever manner of war crime.

A lot of people are celebrating this. And I say to you, that billion dollars that it cost, first of all, it’s like shooting yourself in the foot and then bandage bandaging yourself up and then saying, look, we’ve. Look what we did. Yay, you lost a plane and you lost many planes. In fact, all told, probably about a dozen planes, because all of the ones that surrounding the initial incident and the smaller helicopters and the transport aircraft and, you know, everything else, the Warthogs. So it was a very costly operation, if that was the main objective. I’m still not entirely convinced that the main objective was just to rescue a pilot.

I think that was a bit of a side mission because it seems as though they were doing a probing operation for possible heist of some nuclear material or something else. But, you know, if there’s enough time today, I’ll talk about that in a moment. But just think about that billion dollars they say. No man left behind. Well, when you walk around in your cities in America, and I don’t just mean, I’m not just throwing shade on the United States. You look any major city in Canada, there’s a lot of people who’ve not just been left behind.

Because I’m not a person who thinks that the government should, you know, I think the government should stay out of people’s business. But there are things that they could have done with that billion dollars. Like, you know, made healthcare more affordable so thousands of people could get that transplant they needed, or make better schools that can actually teach people things and prepare them for the future, build better infrastructure to improve the quality of life. There’s a lot of people being left behind. So don’t fall for this Pyrrhic victory that they’re putting in front of us as a patriotic invocation in order to gin up more support for more pointless war.

In my personal opinion, that’s exactly what is going on. The US and Iran and a group of regional mediators were discussing the terms for a potential 45 day ceasefire. But again, this is all from Axios, so take it for what it’s worth. It later came out that intermediaries to Iran signaled that talks were no longer positive and were effectively terminated. So, you know, I. Let me just check at the time of making this video if there’s been any new developments. You really just have to look at the price of oil. That’s the best barometer of this stuff to see where things are going.

And even then, even if they were to agree to something at this point, don’t count your chickens until they hatch. So Axios is reporting that, yeah, Barack Ravita. So there’s nothing new that’s come out. So that’s where we’re pretty much at with that now. People are calling this pilot fiasco a Iranian defensive failure. But when you really look at the topography of Iran, you know, I think it was Malcolm Nance, who’s a, a vet, a very renowned combat veteran, he said, look, we can take a lot of, like, we could take Carg island with relative ease.

We could probably get a bunch of guys in there into, deep into Iran and come out unscathed with relative ease. The hard part is staying there. It’s like Jerry Seinfeld, when you ever see that episode of Seinfeld where he’s like, you know, anybody can just take reservations. The important part is the holdingers of the reservation, right? So the fact that they had to blow a couple of their aircraft because they got stuck in the mud, or later they said it was a mechanical failure. I think that’s proof positive that there’s a lot more to this story than we’re being told.

A lot of people are observing that maybe the planes had bullet holes in them. It’s hard to determine whether that was bullet holes or whether it was shrapnel. And this is going to be one of those things where we never have the, the full story and both sides are going to claim victory on it. But you could well see a case where there is an infiltration corridor into Iran because you got to understand, imagine the Rocky Mountains. If you guys have ever been to the Rocky Mountains, there are places in the Rocky Mountains that are hundreds of miles from a road.

So if you’re the Iranians and You have actually had all of your air force destroyed. There ain’t no way you’re getting deep into those mountains for days on foot. I mean, probably weeks in some cases. So there’s a lot of scenarios where you could potentially have, like, desert, and then it could be surrounded by these mountain barriers and there could be nobody for hundreds of miles. And if there were people or were threatening corridors of entry, you could put down suppressing fire on those, because, of course, despite the fact that the Iranians are shooting the odd jet down, they appeared to have air superiority locked down, they being the United States and Israel.

So you could easily put down suppressing fire, which they did. And so it’s not outside the question if you’re going to spend a lot of money and send in your absolute top of the hop, cream of the crop, Praetorian Guard, of course, you can probably pull something like this off, presuming that the planes don’t get shot down with a manpad on the way there, which they didn’t. Because again, not only is there a lot of disconnection in Iranian communications, but these distances, I mean, this is just a vast country. You really have to go and look at it on Google earth in the 3D mode to get a sense of what I’m saying.

When you’re supercharged by artificial intelligence and the best, most sophisticated isr, it’s not hard to imagine a situation where if you have a tracking beacon that, you know, can locate a guy down to the centimeter in terms of his GPS location, and especially if he’s hiding up in the mountains in places like you can’t even climb some mountains if you wanted to, there’s just simply no pathway up. I climbed mountains before, and I used to climb mountains a lot back in the day in my 20s. And there’s just. Finding a pathway up is virtually impossible in some cases.

So if this guy went down and he went down in a place where only a helicopter could reach, that’s actually quite ideal. So, you know, and then you got to think of historical examples, like I always joke about the air balloon that. That traversed the United States for a few days. Now, admittedly, they were holding back on making a decision on that. Nonetheless, even once they made the decision, it still took 24 to 48 hours to shoot down a Chinese weather balloon. Right, so. Or if you look at Russia, I mean, the size of Russia, the Iranians were able.

Or. Sorry, I always say the Iranians when I’m talking about the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians did that invasion into The Sudzet territory, where they were able to capture the territory because of the geographical barriers that surrounded it. It was a very defensible position once you took it. Eventually the Russians sent him packing in the same way. Eventually we shot the balloon down. It didn’t take long. It took 36 hours for the Iranians to muster a response and send the U.S. packing. And we don’t even know exactly what happened in that case. So, you know, these are things to keep in mind that don’t be fooled and think that you can extrapolate that to other operations.

For anybody who thinks that the US military is this invincible godlike force, then why can’t they open up the Strait of Hormuz? You know, I mean, that’s, that’s, that’s, to me, the litmus test to that would prove that they in fact, were an indomitable force to be reckoned with. Until they’re able to do that, then, you know, I’m not really buying it whatsoever. So they claim that they went scorched earth on the, the planes because they didn’t want them to fall in the hands of the Iranians. And of course, they’ll make all kinds of movies about this someday and it will be dramatized.

You can believe that. Now the big issue here was this a dual purpose mission because apparently we don’t know the exact geolocation, we know the geolocation of where the temporary base was, but we don’t know if, if that was a staging area where they were going from there. According to Rafael Grossi today, who’s the International Atomic Energy Agency chief, he claims that Iran’s new underground nuclear facility in Isfahan, which apparently they’ve yet to be able to destroy with all these fancy dancy, massive ordnance penetrating weapons. Well, they requested access, but they were never able to make it in there.

And they don’t know whether it’s empty or operational. Now, there are some indications that this material is distributed over several different sites, but these 200 commandos that were sent in were very proximate to one of these facilities. I mean, as far as the crow flies, right? Would have been a helicopter ride or two. But nonetheless, there are rumors that this was the main objective and that the rescuing of the pilot was kind of a side mission. The question is, would they have, you know, would. Unless this pilot, I presume these guys run a need to know basis.

You know, they, they give them the strike package, they give them the, the target and then they go put the, the strike package on target. I don’t know how much these pilots are told above and beyond that in terms of the overall scope of the operation, that were they captured, they would risk divulging very critical information. There were 600 POWs in Vietnam, there was a few dozen, you know, POWs in Iraq. The notion that they would make such a massive investment would only be justified for if it was to be used as a Pyrrhic victory. So they could, you know, kind of rally the troops a little bit and in enhance this aura of invincibility which they need in order to keep everybody in line.

Because as soon as people smell blood in the water, that’s when you got to watch out, right? And people are smelling blood when they start seeing American planes get shot out of the sky. So rumor has it, and this is just rument, that the primary purpose of this operation was to do, to go and try to acquire either information about nuclear whereabouts. Maybe they wanted to because I mean, these guys don’t know where it is. I would presume maybe US intelligence and Mossad and all of their spies and moles within the Iranian ranks, maybe they have some information about that.

But it could even be just to capture some people to try to get that information out of them because even if you did, you would, you would be of course then tasked with infiltrating that facility, getting down however many hundreds of meters deep, presuming it’s not entombed in rubble, which would require all kinds of heavy equipment in order to excavate. And yeah, it just seems a little odd that they would make such a massive investment even for the very short lived patriotic win. Now it does kind of reinforce that horror maduro level of special forces capability.

But I just don’t think that it, it doesn’t seem to stand on its own as a reason as to why they would do that. And again, the whole we don’t leave any man behind. I think I provided enough reasoning as to why I don’t think that’s the case because they leave millions of people behind all the time. So that’s what’s going on. And at the time of making this video, it doesn’t look like anything is progressed in terms of, yeah, it looks like we got another strike on the Haifa oil refinery here. Cluster submunitions have hit it.

So. Yeah, it doesn’t seem like there’s any, a very low likelihood that these talks are going to, to yield any positive results and Steve Witkoff still involved. So I mean if they were really serious, I think they would put somebody else in charge of negotiating, because these guys do not have any. Any love for Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. So we have a strike on the Russian port of Novorossisk, which is a massive port, two piers, and this is going to constrain loading operations. So while damage to the crude metering nodes and shutoff valves disrupt flow control, taken together when disabling the piers and disabling the flow control, this basically results in an immediate operational shutdown rather than a partial reduction in throughput.

So we’re talking about a total shutdown of another major Russian oil port. Russia is claimed to be amassing forces, large columns of military equipment in the Zaporizhzhia direction from the Donetsk side. So this is the portion of the Donbass that I believe. Is it the Donetsk or Luhansk? I think it’s the Donetsk, where they have yet to fully take that oblast. So it looks like 50 to 60 vehicles, which in Russian terminology is not that much. But, of course, Russia must be getting ready to do a big arrow maneuver, because right now it appears they’re just twiddling their thumbs and they are.

Something is loading. We just don’t know what. I probably don’t have to remind you of the profane tweet that Trump made on Truth Social, but basically, here’s what he said. Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Exclamation marks. Open the fucking straight, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah. President Donald Trump. So, as I indicated yesterday, Trump is not worried so much about war crimes because of the SCOTUS decision in 2024. However, I think that.

I think that there’s something else that is motivating them to throw caution to the wind, whether it is their own personal effects or the possibility of just being impeached, causing them to ramp this war up to the point where they could potentially postpone an election and possibly, like I said, with the military, the sorting out of the ranks and the. The militarization of the policing of the military, as it would appear, could be a setup for some kind of military takeover. And I don’t say that lightly because I know a lot of liberals have floated that for the longest time that, you know, Trump is a tyrant and he wants to crown himself king.

And I never really seen a pathway towards that. It just seemed very implausible, especially in 2020, where, yeah, you had the J6 thing, but you knew that wasn’t going to amount to much. And there wasn’t really a clear pathway there that that could happen. But I’m not so sure about the robustness of the US system of governance at this point in time because it seems as though it is starting to show cracks. And if this thing progresses and we, if this is the beginning of the global reset, then we very well could see a situation where they have to declare some quasi level of martial law which slowly kind of works its way into a continuity of government issue, and then they postpone elections, then all bets are off.

So here’s a list of some of the oil and gas infrastructure that’s been targeted in the last 72 hours. And it’s really astounding. We have Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, the Lukehorn oil refinery in Russia. We have the Primorsk oil port and terminal and infrastructure in Leningrad. We also have the Olga or UST Luga facility in that region. We have oil terminals in Nova Rasisk and Shiskaris. So we just have across the board, they are systematically trying to take out all of the Russian ports, both warm and cold water. We have the petrochemical complex in Iran, which was hit very hard, okay? And this is something that they used to produce, I believe, 70% of the nation’s gasoline.

And one of the ways that they keep the population pacified in Iran is they have very low cost gasoline. It is only, I think it’s like a cent a liter. It’s dirt cheap. It’s almost nothing. And so now, of course, the price of that is going to be going up. Bandar Petrochemical ancillary utilities in, in Iran. We have an oil refinery in Kuwait that went up in smoke. We have a gas facility in Abu Dhabi in the uae. A petrochemical plant was hit in the uae. The Babco Energy petrochemical complex was hit in Bahrain. Haifa was hit multiple times.

Their oil refinery, I believe there was a couple desalination plants that were also hit and another petrochemical complex in Israel. All right? And one thing that people don’t factor in is that the tankers that used to be making their way to the Strait of Hormuz, depending on where they’re coming from, if they’re coming from Asia, they take two to three weeks to get there. And so now those tankers have basically stopped and have been rerouted elsewhere if there’s anywhere else to go, instead of going to the Strait of Hormuz empty to fill up with oil. So what that means is that even if by some stroke of magic we seen the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow.

It would still take 20 to 25 days for those ships to get to the Strait of Hormuz. And then once you, you know, you factor in all of the logistical backlog and the cluster show, that’s going to be, never mind. Is there going to be the, the facilities there, the pumping facilities, they’re, they’re operating at a lower level because of course there’s been many attacks on these facilities and so maybe even maintenance has not been able to be done in the way that it’s supposed to. So you’re looking at at least a two month turnaround just to get the ships there and then to get that oil back to its destination.

Then you still have to refine it, usually in a lot of cases, or turn it into whatever you want to use it, diesel, you know, gasoline, propane. And so that takes more time. So this has created a huge backlog which is not going to be resolved probably for months. Even if the Strait of Hormuz was open tomorrow, maybe in futures, you know, the price would decline significantly, but in the spot price, the spot price could keep going up for a long, long time as a result of this. So there’s that. Now, there was a post made on X that kind of went viral and I want to just kind of tease it apart here because I think some of it’s BS and some of it gives us a little bit of a illustrative framework to understand what could potentially happen.

And it’s basically talking about what happens if Trump hits the power plants come Tuesday morning or Monday, because usually when he creates these deadlines right now It’s Tuesday at 8pm Usually they stab them in the back 24 hours prior to that. So we can presume that all bets are off on the 24th. Now, if the deadline expires and Iran rejects all the deals and they can’t create a ceasefire, then effectively what happens is Iran goes dark. So Trump claims. Now, is that going to be permanent or are they going to use the micro filament aluminum filament bombs, where they try to short circuit the power lines and the transformers by sprinkling it with this metallic dust? It’s a weapon that’s been used to temporarily dismantle a power grid.

Will they use something like that or will they just blow it to smithereens? I think they’ll just blow it up because I don’t think they’re going to be that surgical with this. And so if that’s the case, and if they actually can bring down the power grid. Even if they bring it down for, you know, 25% of the population, it is going to be a massive disaster. And the Iranians at that point have zero incentive to do anything but light the entire Middle east on fire. I mean light it on fire, hit every single oil and gas power station, everything.

And right now they’re amassing all the forces that they’re about to do a ground invasion. This was, this last thing was a trial run to see what the response times of the Iranians would be and etc. Etc. So it’s looking like that’s what’s going to go down. Either way, we know that they’re not stopping. Even if there is a 45 day ceasefire, they’re just going to use that as cover for the next round of escalation. I, I presume that they would rather not, you know, destroy the power grid because that could make, you know, the situation more chaotic for not only for the, you know, the future government, whoever takes over, which, you know, I’m, I’m not even a believer that they want to put this Shaw get character in.

I think he’s just a useful idiot. He’s a patsy and his whole purpose is to, you know, bring out these protests and amplify the casualty numbers of the alleged crackdown on the militant protesters inside Iran, make the Iranian government look really bad, give everybody a sense of false hope and ultimately what happens is this turns into another Syria situation. Then you have the Kurds coming from the north and you know, Special Forces doing their thing all around in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf and maybe they launch an invasion from the UAE into some of these islands that are in the Strait, possibly have something happen in Baluchistan.

But then this, this antagonizes the countries on, on their periphery, which are Afghanistan and, and Turkey. And so it creates all kinds of knock on effects. But essentially what Iran does is they hit Yanbu Port, where right now, if they hit Yanbu port, I mean that’s really all they have to do. They don’t even really have to do much in Saudi Arabia. They just got to take off that port because at least for the foreseeable future, until the US is going to send some of their Praetorian Guard into the Strait of Hormuz and open it up, well that’s going to completely take another 7 million barrels of oil a day offline and that’ll absolutely crash the global economy into oblivion.

And of course this is where you get into desalination plants. And the Iranians are only, I think it’s 5% dependent on desalination. They have a water crisis, make no mistake. But I think they have more water in the ground, more well water and other reservoirs, whereas all of these other countries, they’re totally dependent on seawater desalination. So in that case, he thinks that that happens in the next two to three days. And honestly, this whole timeline was something some guy pulled out of his ass. It’s just one of these faceless. This accounts on X, but because the post got 2 million views, because it, it lacks a lot of depth.

Of course, things like that seem to get traction on X, then Iran would target Ras to Nura, the largest oil terminal on Earth. That one is actually in the Persian Gulf. And it’s pretty much not doing anything right now. It has 6.5 billion per day capacity. And again, it’s, it’s not doing anything right now because it’s not able to ship oil out. So that one’s already effectively been taken offline. But yeah, they would see that it was permanently taken offline. What could very well happen is the Houthis would close the Bab El Mandev Strait, which would not be that difficult.

If they have the same Shahid drone and naval drone technology. They’ve already demonstrated the ability to target ships and commandeer vessels in that area. So they could easily shut that down. And then that just makes, that creates a real powder keg of problems in East Asia, especially because that’s where a lot of that traffic goes. Now you could reroute it all the way around Africa, but then you’re adding millions upon millions per day. I can’t remember what the exact price is, but to send one oil tanker, I think it’s like $30 million. Right now. It costs 30 million just for the trip, never mind the, the fees that you have to pay now to either the Houthis or to the Iranians.

Strategic oil reserves will continue to run low. And right now they’re draining them. So the clock is ticking. We don’t know what, how much is being released from these reserves yet, if anything, but it’s, it’s nowhere near the limit that meets the needs of the shortfall from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And I believe that there is, they have to be very careful, especially in the United States, when they drain those strategic oil reserves. They have to inject salt water in order to bring the oil up, in order to extract it. And if they do it too fast or if they try to get too much oil too fast, fast it risks collapsing the entire structure.

And that could be a total disaster unto itself. So there’s a certain limit in terms of how much they can take out of the strategic oil reserve. And quite frankly that’s a good thing. That forces us to kind of ration a little bit. But of course what this means is that, you know, we are going to see see prices go higher and everybody thinks Venezuela is in the bag. You know, I was talking to, I think it was Brendan Weickert who was saying that Venezuela is not in the bag. You know, you have this Delsey Rodriguez who’s playing ball right now.

But if economic conditions become more dire and people don’t see real change fast, and if they feel they’ve been betrayed, it just takes a few drones or guerrilla groups to start targeting these oil facilities for no country company to want to do business there or make any investments. And if that happens, then, you know, all bets are off. Plus the U. S needs the lighter crude from the middle east in order to dilute its heavier crude from Venezuela. Yeah, so this guy predicts that by April 11th or 13th, oil hits 250 and all these strategic reserves are empty, which is BS that’s just not going to happen.

It’s not physically possible to do that. China still has its oil reserves and it hasn’t tapped into them at all. I don’t think, because it doesn’t really have a vested interest in doing so right now. That ultimately might change, but who knows? Global food crisis 30% of fertilizer transits the Hormuz. Obviously we have all of those in, in some cases it’s more than 30% depending on what type of fertilizer Asian economies collapse. And here he says something funny April 14, his prediction is, is that if oil hits $300, a global recession is 30% probability. What? Dude, if oil hits $300, it’s Mad Max, okay? It’s mad max if oil hits $300.

Now at some point you get demand destruction, but there’s a certain element of that that’s inelastic, that is famine based. And so it’s not like, okay, yeah, there’s a point where people maybe stop driving less and don’t go on vacation. But if oil scarcity becomes so extreme that there’s just no diesel to go into tractors to sow and cultivate crops, then that’s when food riots start. That’s when the refugee crisis all around the world becomes intensified. That’s when people start looking to conquer surrounding territory. And wars flare up. And so this whole thing is like a domino effect.

All of this really stemmed from COVID in a way, because, and I heard survival Lily say this and I’ll never forget, you know, she said Covid was like the wound and it was just a wound, but it allowed an infection to move in. And it just caused so much displacement in the, the geopolitical sphere of things, economically and otherwise, that it just had this snowball effect, this cascade effect throughout, throughout the entirety of the system. And it puts so much stress on all these pre existing points of friction, these tectonic geopolitical points of friction. And that increased the likelihood of the Russian war happening.

And you know, and then that happened of course, and that increased the likelihood of shit popping off in the Middle east and that increased the likelihood of the trade war popping off. And now here we are, really, the final domino is falling and that’s energy and that is just going to open Pandora’s box around the world. So then we potentially are looking at actual nuclear weapons use. And that really is the end of the line. Because once you get rid of the Iranian government and if you’ve yet to acquire the enriched uranium material, at that point it does strictly become ideological for a lot of them and it becomes a situation.

Well, if we don’t have a country and if there’s just rogue elements who don’t have the strategic forbearance of the current leadership and the, the more measured responses they may be inclined, if they have the means to do so, to build a nuclear weapon and use it somewhere, or just demonstratively use it in one last ditch attempt to establish deterrence. But you know, I’ve always thought that it was foolish to believe that if the Iranians couldn’t build a nuclear weapon during peacetime, it seems unlikely that they could do it during a wartime while under constant bombardment.

But who knows. Anyways guys, that’s pretty much what I got for you right now. I’m just going to do one final check here to make sure anything significant has transpired in the last few minutes that I’ve been making this video. It looks like nothing good has transpired. There is just. This is bad. I. It’s like a Clockwork Orange. You know, today it’s. It’s been staggering, absolutely staggering. So I feel like I should be doing more prepping videos. I was gonna do a video on fuel storage. It might be a little bit too late, but I think I’m gonna, gonna try to do some, you know, just updates to videos that I’VE done in the past for a contemporary audience.

I think right now we really need to start focusing on what we’re gonna do if this, the worst case scenario unfolds. And we’re this close, we’re that close to the worst case scenario unfolding. And a lot of us, even people like myself are somewhat stricken with the normalcy bias because on the one hand I don’t think he’s that crazy to do what he could potentially do this week. At the same time, it seems like that’s where this is destined to go. It’s just a matter of when they decide to pull that trigger and what the protocol is going to be.

So my friends, take it easy. We got a lot of interviews, some special guests coming up this week. And no, I don’t just do these videos in my car. It’s just on the weekend I’m on the homestead and this is my studio. Thanks for watching.
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