Hormuz Strait Chaos Is Starting To Put Food At Risk…

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Summary

➡ The discussion revolves around the rising costs of food and the factors contributing to it. The increase in fuel prices affects both the farming process and the transportation of goods, leading to higher food prices. Additionally, disruptions in the supply of fertilizers and plastics for food packaging are causing a decline in crop yields and difficulties in food distribution. The speaker suggests that these issues are global and warns that current food prices are the lowest they will ever be, urging listeners to prepare for future changes.
➡ The text discusses the potential for a global food crisis, suggesting that disruptions in agriculture and food supply could lead to societal collapse. It emphasizes the importance of food as an energy source for civilization and suggests that a lack of food could lead to societal stagnation, similar to the Dark Ages. The text also discusses the role of media in alerting the public to a potential food crisis and suggests that without media attention, the public may remain unaware of the crisis until it’s too late. Lastly, it highlights the current issues in India, where a shortage of durable bags for food transportation is causing disruptions, illustrating how even minor issues in the food supply chain can have significant impacts.
➡ In India, due to food shortages and business disruptions, people are moving away from traditional investments like the stock market and are buying gold instead. This shift is due to concerns about company performance and a desire for a more stable investment. Meanwhile, discussions are ongoing about the potential for bonds to be issued in commodities, like food or lumber, instead of traditional currencies. This would mean that the repayment would be in the commodity itself, not in money.
➡ During a crisis, people often trade valuable items for food and essentials. This story tells of a time when people traded items like grand pianos and silverware for food. The value of silver increased as it became scarcer. The article suggests that growing your own food and trading excess produce with neighbors can be a good strategy during hard times. It also mentions the potential value of medicinal herbs and tobacco. The author encourages thinking beyond just growing basic vegetables, and considering how to add value to what you produce, similar to how companies operate.
➡ The text discusses the importance of growing your own food, like herbs and microgreens, especially in times of crisis. It emphasizes the need for oils in our diet, which can be hard to secure during famines. The text also talks about the impact of rising fuel prices on fishing and how innovation in food production won’t happen until prices rise. Lastly, it discusses the potential difficulties in determining the value of silver or gold in a crisis situation, suggesting it would come down to individual negotiation if established markets fail.
➡ The speaker discusses the undervaluation of silver, suggesting it should be worth more due to its historical value as a form of currency. They also touch on the potential for a food crisis, which they believe will only be recognized when mainstream media reports on it. The speaker emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and self-reliance, warning against reliance on algorithms and mainstream narratives. They also advise listeners to prepare for rising prices and potential crises by having a plan, including the possibility of moving to different continents.
➡ Please make sure your family has enough food. It’s important to plan carefully. Thanks for letting me share this.

Transcript

Most farmers in America, the news articles keep coming back and forth. They keep pretty much saying the same thing. 70% of the farmers can’t get 100% of what they need this year to plant in America. All right, welcome everyone. This is David Morgan. The morganreport.com with David Dubine. David Dubine is an independent researcher, analyst and founder of Adapt 2020 30, a platform focused on global food production, climate cycles and supply chains resilience. His work centers on the intersection of solar activity, historical climate patterns and the impact on modern agriculture. David and I have a pretty strong history.

We have gone knowing each other for quite some time and one of, I think one of the best interviews I did for say PSA public service would be way back when. David, I don’t remember probably six years ago or so I was in Mexico on a working vacation doing a mining tour. Came back, got in the condo, we hooked up and we talked about the coming food crisis. Way before anyone was talking food crisis. And still remembering that interview, not specifically everything but that one thing that I did, the, you know, the one handed salute, like what, tell me that again, was that in a food crisis I forgot exactly how you define it, that the average I think increase was sevenfold and that took me, almost knocked me off my chair.

Sevenfold. I would say right now based on me doing my own shopping, I would say from about two years ago, not everything. But generally speaking here in you know, a regular town, in the regular US of A’s doubled. I mean I can’t say every single thing is exactly twice as expensive. But when I get the same, when I get two bags of groceries for 100 bucks and now I get one bag of groceries for 100 bucks and my shopping habits are pretty similar, that’s a pretty good indicator that more or less it’s doubled. Anyway, thank you for coming on board.

Let’s get this thing rocking and rolling because we got a lot of ground cover. So we’re going to start with. Is anchoring the discussion on something familiar to you more than me? And I’ve talked about it numerous times. Energy drives everything. Fertilizer, transportation, mechanical agriculture and disruptions in oil, natural gas and geopolitics ripple into the food supply. So food inflation is not just monetary, it is physical scarcity and declining yields. So my question number one is are we looking at another inflationary wave or something more structural? Yeah, thank you for having me on. And just a quick answer.

Inflationary wave because you have to think about the repricing in steps because going back to Your point, Take it back to the year 2019 and now do an assessment on your food costs. Everything would have doubled since that because you got to think the COVID was that step up and what I would consider like a stair step, a level up. And this was, you know, we talked about this long ago that you were going to get these stair steps going up into. Well, at that point you’re going to have to have something more valuable to trade than just your time or the fiat pieces of money to be able to get your, your foods in.

Now as we come through, you have to think about it’s not just the fuel up that there’s a pincer effect happening with everything where the diesel prices themselves, the gasoline prices, okay, now you take that into consideration on the farmer side. Farmers are going to pay more just to plant, just to run the machines and get that to a farmer storage facility. That’s just going to cost more because diesel costs more to get the final end product into your supermarket. Gasoline and diesel are going to drive the price on that. So then you have two legs up just on that one shortage alone or that disruption.

But then we come into the fertilizers and remember it’s about a 1 to 1. It’s not exactly. But for napkin math it’s a 1 to 1 1% application deficit on crop yields or on your crops leads to a 1% decline in the yield. So if you remove 1% of your fertilizer application, you’re going to lose 1% of your yield out. So take it down 10%, you’re going to lose 10%. Most farmers in America, the news articles keep coming back and forth. They keep pretty much saying the same thing. 70% of the farmers can’t get 100% of what they need this year to plant in America.

So we are in like a driver’s seat wheelhouse of access to these types of farm inputs. But what about other countries that don’t or they can or it’s too expensive or their trade agreements are off or their, they’re 100% imports at that point, you know they’re going to be looking at substantial declines 10, 20, 50% down where we’re looking totally in America, somewhere around 12 to 18% this year that they’ve quantified and said look for disruptions. So now we got the fertilizer, then we got the plastics and anything plastics for the food packing. Excuse me, I need to hold the mic and see how windy it is.

I thought a typhoon was coming today, but it’s just the wind on a high pressure system coming in, but the plastics being disrupted as well. So then you got, you can’t even pack the foods in a normal supermarket environment because we don’t have the plastics for that. And you know, you can just run this all the way down as far as you want to go. What about the herbicides, the pesticides, the fungicides, these sort of things? That’s all disrupted too, right along with the fertilizer. So as you start to subtract crop yield amounts out because of the inputs aren’t available.

What if you got a whole bunch of insect problem out there? Well, this year, I’m sorry, the insects are going to win. What if you have a bunch of it was raining too much and everything’s moldy and blighty and you want to get rid of that molding in the fungicides? Well, I’m sorry, that’s not there. So if you got too much water on your crops, they’re just going to mold right away. So it’s not just a single like the fuel’s gone up. It’s just dove to like this pincer effect of three, four or five layers coming in on top.

And it affects everybody, everywhere in the whole world. Now normally, you know, it would only be in one specific continent or place that’s normally disrupted. But at this point it’s as widespread as Covid would be. So if we’re looking at the second step up, this is it. Like the food you buy now is going to be the cheapest it will ever be the rest of your life. Like think about if you knew that at Covid in 2019, that was the cheapest our world will ever be again. This is the next step up to this is the cheapest it will ever be again.

So how would you position yourself to get ready for some of these massive changes inbound? That would be my question to everybody. Do an assessment. Yeah, you’ve done a great job. This is slightly a repeat, but a little more clarification. I mean the whole system has been optimized for just in time inventory. And yes, we do have food storage facilities and we do have some, you know, runoff or overage you might call it for, you know, some crop yields. But those are going to be pretty, pretty quickly here. So my question is this system is built for efficiency, not for resilience.

Obviously we don’t have resilience in all the things you just described. Thank you. So what happens? I mean, do we starve? I mean, what does it look like to you? I Mean, you’ve studied this stuff for quite some time. I mean, I don’t want to be a doomer, but I also want to be of service to others that look, let’s get real about this thing. So what does it look like going forward? Well, I would be the realest camp with you. And I am trying to look at numbers because the United States Department of Agriculture, the USDA like the carryover stocks that they have listed on our well records that they release publicly.

You know, the mission statement of the USDA is not to give you the true information. It’s about to stabilize markets. So I am questioning now, are the numbers that they have given us for the last several years true or are they not true? Because this is going to dictate whether we come into this, what you’re talking about really incredible inflationary push on foods. If they have been lying to stabilize markets, like telling us, oh there’s an extra 100 million tons laying around because if it was 100 million tons minus, then prices might have spiked already last year or two years ago.

But to stabilize markets they would have put a, shall we say an error in accounting on it to be nice and politically correct on purpose to stabilize versus allowing markets to run away. Because everything is under control in these markets. It’s not really free market. You know, that’s a misnomer. The free market. Everything’s controlled in every way, shape or form. So would you want ag commodities to run away? That would signal for me that there was a disruption in some sort of crop yields. If ag commodities a couple of years ago, we’re going to run away and we didn’t have this crisis.

But if you were looking at a 400 year or a 2000 or 6000 year cycle and you knew it would disrupt agricult and now we’re at the rollover point where it’s going to be noticeable. The war gives a perfect excuse why everything gets disrupted. And it won’t be blamed now on any cycles due to solar activity or cycles in time that have taken down great civilizations through our history. You know, go back the last 4,000 years and look at the greats of our world. Why did they rise to the apex and then collapse? There’s none of them left.

And if they are, they’re shards of their previous selves. You know, you really need to ask like what allowed them to rise to the pinnacle and what took them off the pinnacle? And I think we’re at that point again. I believe it’s all back to the point of food if you can’t feed your populace or your army, you really don’t have anything to run on because they can’t solve problems, they can’t do work if you’re malnourished. We’ve seen a million videos on, you know, people without enough food. They’re. You just kind of stop and you don’t do anything.

That’s why the dark ages occur, because when you don’t have enough calories, you, your society stop, literally. Like the engine unit associated for the human in the civilization machine. And when that gets energies, we’re talking about calories. That is the most important energy source on the planet, that which drives civilization. And there’s a, there’s a mismatch in it. Right now we’re going to start to see when that energy source is depleted, how the world’s going to move or not. They’re going to sit still because they’re going to be hungry and they won’t move, they won’t have the energy.

How do you see the timeline? Do you see this as a two or three year event or a decade long trend? It depends how quickly the media allows the panic to start. That’s truly the catalyst because right now, as everybody has become so complacent, you think people would have woken up after Covid and gotten more ready. You know, just the common sense of you being a dad, you being the charge of the family. Did you get your families ready? If you didn’t, you failed your families because you had fair warning. If Covid didn’t wake you up, I’m sorry, you’re never going to wake up.

So what was with the media push? The whole Covid? Oh, it’s everywhere. It’s all scary. It’s got to comply. You got to. That was a media push that caused that panic and compliance now so far, until the media starts to push that, there’s food shortage. Hey, you got to get your food, you got to stock up on food. Everybody’s got to grow a garden. Until that messaging occurs, the timeline is going to be slower than it would be with the media push to get everybody panicked. But you and I have talked. Is it going to come sort of.

Will it be a ration card, a digital rationing card? Will there be a toe into the digital system, this thing? I think somehow that’s tied together. But you know, your guess is as good as mine. It’s all about media messaging on the timeline. Then at that point it’ll be slow. If there’s no media push, it’ll be fast. If the media pushes it starting tomorrow. Yeah, you kind of answered this, but, you know, the public is not that aware yet, in my opinion. And, you know, I talk to people randomly and so what. What kind of a trigger would we need where people say, oh, my God, there is a food crisis? Is it empty shelves? Is it.

Coca Cola isn’t available for two months. I mean, what would it take to wake up? You know, I mean, we know it’s here, we see it, we. But yet, as you said, manipulation of markets keep prices relatively in a boundary, let’s say, and the real crisis hasn’t manifested where most people recognize it. What would it take for them, the general public say, oh, my God, there is a food crisis, because price doesn’t seem to be doing it. Maybe it does. What? What do you think? When the media tells them there’s a food crisis, they will believe it until then? They won’t.

Because even water cooler talk, you would think the people that are in your closest circle, that would be talking about it. But I don’t understand. There’s just maybe, maybe that’s just the human settlement mechanism for dealing with something that’s unthinkable for them is just say, all right, it’s going to get better. It’s not that bad yet. It didn’t touch me yet. I don’t need to really prepare. Came back after Covid. This is just another thing. I don’t know, it’s just probably going to brush on by. But if five of your closest friends are telling you, hey, there’s something wrong with the food, if they’re in a prepper, you know, sort of mind frame, that sixth person or whatever is probably going to take the word.

But if it’s just your regular normie consciousness soccer mom going out on the weekend, you know, whatever it is, they might say, well, I’m paying a little more for potatoes. I’m paying a little more for, you know, the biscuits or the cookies in the store. But that’s about it. Until the media messages it, nobody will believe it. Even if the store shelves are running bare in there like they did in Covid, they’re just like, oh, there’s just. That’s only one thing. That’s only one. No, it’s only two things. Oh, wait, it’s only three things. It’ll come back.

But one thing I’m going to say out living out here in Asia now is the plastic shortages are going to hit. They’re hitting around the world. They’re hitting here first. So the films, the packing films, what you call Saran Wrap, that kind of film or just wrapping meats that’s getting thin, that’s going to probably be one of the first ones that’ll be noticeably like diminished. You might not see as much fresh food out in the aisles. You know, the steaks or the hamburger or whatever the pork loins are under that Saran Wrap. Under the. Was that Styrofoam thing with the absorbent that’ll disappear first films.

So the ledp, the HDPE got the Mylar bags, that sort of stuff, potato chips, you, you’re going to watch some of that stuff. And the cookies is. I keep coming back to the example of cookies because inside you have a hard see through plastic that the cookies slot in and then on that there’s a thin film around it. But then on the outside that’s a Mylar backpack or some type of, or some sort of pack. Depends on which I’m going to say Mylar because that’s generally the industry standard. That’s three different types of plastics to wrap one cookie to get it to your supermarket.

So those things that involve multiple layers of plastic packing inside the process to move it. Because I would say one thing. Over in India right now, they’re having a tremendous, tremendous problem with these polypropylene woven bags. They come together and those things are incredibly durable. You could drop it off the Empire State Building, that thing would smash the ground and still keep on moving. I think you’d lose a couple of grains of rice. These things are like insanely durable. They’ve run out of these bags. Like they come in different size, 100 pound, 50 pound, 25 pound, 10 pound.

But over there it’s, you know, 50 kilo, 25 kilo, because a different measurement system. They’ve run out of those bags. So there’s a tremendous upheaval in Indian society. The food’s still there. The food’s still there. They just can’t put it in the right size bags to get it to supermarkets or to transport it across the country. So now they’re having to rethink this entire delivery system of rice where they’re going back in. And the thing is, they have to wait in an enormous extra amount of time in line because they’re doing it the old fashioned way again.

They’re pouring it in, putting it on the scales and then dumping it out in a bag and taking payment and then moving it that way. But this time instead of one vendor that’s doing it, they got a whole line of people, one to weigh it One, to collect your cash security in the lines to keep them in line from cutting. And this is what they have to do. For every distribution point now, which completely through is just. People are losing their minds in India because they can’t get their rice in a bag. The food’s still there.

Put that in perspective, too, on how much of a disruption this all is. I want to continue on that food shortages create unrest. You’re talking about it right now. What do you see further social and political consequences? You just gave us one in India. What else do you see? Well, everything investment wise is going to be affected. I mean, so if we’re coming into food difficulties, like just take India, for example, I understand there’s big companies, but if you’re just the average person and a lot of people there put their wealth in gold, a lot of people aren’t going to be jumping into the stock market like right now, the push for gold, there’s like a record draws or even pulling in silver in India now, which they normally didn’t do.

You know, that was more of a Thailand kind of Lao. Everybody’s silver over in Southeast Asia, but specifically in India, they’re always after the gold. This is their second substitute from at least what I’m reading on some opinion pieces out of like the Delhi Times and where, where was another one, Maharasht? You know, there’s. And if you can go out west, Jaipur Times, they all have their individual newspapers for their individual provinces or districts out there. They’re all talking about the same thing. People aren’t going to be investing in businesses or investing in the stock market like they did.

The huge pull is because these. They can’t get the food in the polypropylene bags. People are waking up going, whoa, what’s going to happen with the companies? They can’t even make deliveries. So how are they going to. And there’s like, we’re not even going to invest in the companies anymore on the stock market. We’re going to go back just to buying gold again. That’s the only way to survive this. And there’s. That’s why there’s so much gold being pulled into India, because instantly these people have gone away from, you know, they’ve dissuaded them from holding gold into taking on, you know, traditional, like stock market bonds, this sort of thing.

They’ve, they’ve convinced the people that’s the best way to go compared to paired buying gold. But now they’re buying gold again and they’re like, we don’t want to do traditional investments. The rest of the system starting to fail. We’re going back to gold again. All right, so let’s get into the investment implications. We started talking about that and actionable items of course agricultural commodities are important. Grains, fertilizer, all those inputs hard to do can be done in the futures market which I don’t recommend for the average investor at all. But you can buy like adm, Archer, Daniel Midland.

There are other food companies, Kellogg’s. I mean there’s all kinds of them out there. That’s one way to hedge. Another is farmland and or water rights. Another one of course is energy, oil, natural gas, fertilizer, links, that type of thing. But let’s go to my wheelhouse for a while and that’s precious metals as a protection against systemic instability. And you looked at in the past as I have but you went one step further. At the end of the great Weimar Republic inflation there were people that get very inventive which people do during these great inflations. And they had a methodology to trade within the commodity itself.

Would you go into that for us? Yeah, I was trying to just before we come on air. My whole thing now is understanding the inflationary events of the Weimar Republic because I do believe there’s going to be a lot of similarities here. But at the end of it we I do believe I really Hashgraph is where they’re trying to take us. Blockchain is the intermediary step. But the entire world moving over to Hashgraph and the Internet of things because it’s real time of everything in the world for I guess the digitization of all assets on the planet in real time to know where an entire planet is moving by the second or by the goods conceived.

Money is on a ledger. Money’s subtracted from the ledger swapped. This is the direction they wanted. It’s not enough advance. But the thing that has to come in is they have to come to a new system to to finalize that system which is already they the plans are every destination is so if you know where the final destination is like a map you start here and you know you’re going there. But the thing is it involves a hyperinflationary event which Internet of Things ledgered settlements is because of the inflation needs to be wiped out first they need to settle off debts.

It’s not that it’s not going to be repaid. It will be repaid and hyperinflated money. So once you understand that this move into stable coins for the US to buoy up artificial let’s say demand for it. It’s all tied into inflating away our debt like they did after World War II. They really pushed it away. A lot of that war debt was swiped clean in the 1950s, but they were running 18 to 21% interest at the point too. So what happened in Weimar? Well, it got to the point where the money was so worthless that anything issued in the native currency wasn’t issued in the native currency any longer.

I was reading something specifically about rye bonds where the commodity that was the bond was issued payable in a certain amount of kilograms of rye. So their contract was 1000 kg at 4% interest payable after three years. So even though it was a small amount of food, it was still the point. It wasn’t a currency, it was a commodity that was payable forward. And at settlement time, you had to give me, in addition, the extra grain off of that as the settlement. They also were doing lumber at the same time as well. So the two that I was able to specifically fight and cite sources for were rye and wood lumber.

Building wood lumber as the payable in the future. Not the money. Not the money. So I’m wondering how that brings us into today’s world. Like, could we even move over to such a thing? I understand that they got the CME and cboe, these sort of, you know, agricultural edges of things being settled, but that’s something very different. Can you actually issue a bond not with the US dollars or not through Australian dollars or euros, but can it be issued in a commodity payable for the same commodity years later with the percentage built in 10%? Okay, I’ll take an extra hundred pounds rye that you pay me.

If it’s a thousand kilograms and it’s on, let’s say, a one year note at 10%, then at the end of that next year I will claim it. You’re going to be 1,100kg of rye and it’s payable in the food, not the money. So could we even facilitate such a system today? Because everything’s moving digits, even the. So you know, way more about, you know, the gold and silver settlements, which I’ve heard you talk eloquently about, and the way that can things can be rolled over and masked, even though, you know, people want that delivery to not really create a panic in the market.

So you talk the same thing, gold and silver, about not creating a panic. So why couldn’t they do the same thing with food and not create a panic and just keep artificially, you know, moving those numbers down the road or forcing you to settle in cash instead of taking the food deliveries. See, there’s a lot of overlays. History is the best way. You know, people keep saying, like, how do you see the future? I don’t. I look in the past and I look at the plans of the future and then those two, you know, meet in the middle somewhere.

That’s where your study should be is in the future of arti. They’re telling you where it’s going to go. The final plan is this. And look in the past to see how that’s going to roll through the present time to get us there. Well, I want to go into more of a specific here. I write for the Executive Review. It’s every quarter and it’s an in flight magazine, pretty well known in Europe. And he had me do one of the paragraphs about, you know, what is 500 ounces of silver do for the average person? So I’m going to ask you kind of the same question.

How much silver do you think you would need, let’s say in Southeast Asia to mitigate the food crisis? That’s it. I see. I don’t know. Okay, so on the on, if you go back in Weimar, people did not want to part with their precious metals to do the day to day. They would do approximately one coin to get them through. But nobody ever converted all of it to get the currency of the day. They converted it as one was needed and the rest of it was hoarded. They found that the central bank also, at the time they were asking people prior to the 1922, 1923 hyperinflation to turn in the gold.

Right. Will you please, king and country, monarch and country, please turn in. So everybody turned in their gold voluntarily. It wasn’t even confiscated. It was like, do it for the good of the nation. So a lot of the gold was already up and controlled by the banking at that time in the central bank. It wasn’t even out in the hands of the people, but the ones that were smart enough to keep it, they didn’t convert everything at the same time. They did one little piecemeal and they found there was like almost no gold out in the real world because people weren’t trading it in.

The food was the big thing. People were trading wedding rings and, you know, tabletop silverware. That was another big thing of silver plated silverware. They would go and trade to the farmers directly for food. And there was a story about as one farmer, he got like three grand pianos in his house because people were Trading all this, anything they could trade from their homes for food and the farmhouses filled up with all these antiques and grand pianos and like all these china sets, silverware sets, plated silver, because people were piecemealing it out. So again, how long do you think the crisis would last? And what would the exchange rate be for a piece of monetary metal that holds its value through? And then most people would know by the next week, two weeks, a month from now that that piece of silver is going to be worth more and could be on traded.

So they’re going to hold it. They’re not going to part with it unless they have to. And at that point, what kind of scarcity does that create where there’s even more of a premium on it when you go into cash in your neck? I would say if you’re gonna do, let’s do a weekly 52, say you needed a piece of silver per week to survive through. And as you went through, the silver became more and more valuable. 150 ounces, maybe to get you through three years if you were going at a piece per week. That’s my guess.

Silver ounces, Troy ounces. There’s no one knows. I mean, I’ve a good thought experiment. Nobody knows. That’s a hard thing. You know, better guesses and it’s a guess. But so if you go back in like the 1880s or whatever, you get a dollar a day was, you know, pretty good wage. So that’s 365 silver dollars. Remember, silver dollar is only three quarters of an ounce. It’s 0.77 fine ounces. That’s the weight of a silver dollar. 371.25 grains of fine 999 fine silver. So a dollar is not announced. Now, the government doesn’t know that anymore because the new quote, unquote, $1 stamped Liberty Coin called the eagle at all times is one ounce and it says $1.

But that’s not the true constitutional or the act of 1792 Coinage act definition of a dollar. Dollar is what I just said. So anyway, so let’s make that 300 ounces. Well, that’s for everything. 300 ounces in a year is your food, your shelter, your transportation, you know, entertainment, whatever. So let’s say your food budget was 50% of your, your outflow just to eat for your family. Well, that would bring it to just what you said, about 150 ounces a year. So I think you made a pretty good guess. And I think in hard times, the way we’re going where we really revalue things.

Things. I mean a quart of rye is worth a lot more than you know, a new flat screen TV when you don’t have enough to eat. So I think it’s a decent. Just a guess, but I think the point to make for everyone is that you don’t need, you know, 10,000 ounces of silver to get by. Probably 100 ounces alone would probably go a long ways. And what I learned from a long time ago, it didn’t even occur to me being you know, American and I’m world traveled, probably not quite as much as you, but pretty close was all the jewelry that’s used in barter, you know, because a lot of people that outside of North America when they buy precious metals, they’re buying rings or bracelets or earrings or whatever and those are still gold and or silver and they have value.

But you know, I was thinking well it’s this many ounces or whatever. So back. So what is the clearest way. We made some notes before we got together and one of them was to ask you the best way to get through this. Of course that’s growing your food. But you know, let me ask you that question. Why don’t you elaborate on it? Yeah, Growing food is such a broad type of thing. When people say grow your own food, okay. Proteins and oils are also something that are more. You have to raise that. But if you can get the loop of growing feedstocks or feedstuffs for your whatever it would be your food animals or leg egg layers if you’re growing that.

So your first line of defense and want to grow food to support yourself and your family. But nature is very abundant. So you’re going to have to think also how could I when I have an over abundance of that, store it correctly or get my own supply chain out to neighbors or my community to trade that off for something else like growing food right away. Most people just think I’m going to grow it for me it’s in my garden, it’s only going to stay in my house and my family. You need to think super far outside that envelope of you’re Even if you put out like an 8 foot long bed by 4 foot wide bed of just lettuce, there’s you’re going to have probably 80% of that.

That’ll be too much for you and you will. At that point you have a great source of trading something else. So look at it in that way. Anything that you grow like how do you grow more of it and who do you trade it with and if you can’t, then how would you be able to dehydrate that or store it? Because freeze drying is really outside of the possibility for most people. Just a simple dehydrator for 100, 200 bucks on Amazon, you know, with multiple trays to get that, to keep it into something else on a higher value.

Okay, that’s low hanging fruit really when you’re thinking that direction, then your whole supply chain out to the community, what’s it worth? What’s somebody willing to trade buy it from you for Unknown. You’re going to have to work that out. Secondly, medicinal flowers and medicinal herbs, like a lot of people are just thinking, you know, lettuces, carrots, tomatoes, that kind of thing. That’s awesome. And it is in its own right, amazing. But if you’re thinking higher up the chain and more value, you got to start to think of medicinals. Once you start thinking of medicinal, actually herbs, roots and the actual flowers, then you start getting into the teas and the different types of herbal teas and also medicinal teaspoons.

Then you’re bringing it up, but you are going to have to dehydrate a lot of that. So you already have to have your second mechanism in place when you get the medicinals to be able to dry them, pack them and keep them, you know, dry. Thirdly would be tobacco, of course, that’s been, you know, cherished and traded through I mean 8,000 plus years that we know of at least. If you’re able to grow your own, are you able to grow grapes or fruit to be able to turn into tinctures or I should say after you distill them, you know, ferment them down, distill it out, do you have the capability to distill it to turn it into something else? I mean when you say grow, grow food, it can take on so many different variants and then instead of growing it, you’re also think like a company does.

They don’t just grow something and that’s it, they turn it into something more valuable, like a pineapple thing, dole pineapple. They just don’t grow pineapples and sell you whole pineapples. They take it all the way up the value chain there. They bring it up, they can it for you, they put it in different sizes, it’s bulbed, it’s, it’s drinkable, it’s, it’s edibles. You know, you got to think like how do companies do it when they have produce to turn it into something that People will buy. And how do you store it? You know, that would be my easiest answer is, you know, there’s so many levels of the tart.

Start to dissect the level. You might think that’s best for you, what you’re most comfortable with. Because I’m up into the distilling realms already where we got a huge fruit orchard and that was planted specifically to grow fruit to distill. Because even in the distilling range, the first, you know, the four shots itself you can’t drink. That’s methanol, that’s good for cleaning. Secondly, when you get in the head cut on the first cut. That’s really strong proof alcohol like 160, something like that. Arrange that’s great for the medicinals. When you can then tincture that first bottle is always your tincture bottle.

And then the middle heart cut as well. Everybody likes to drink and hard times and you got that going on. So I mean the level of products that you can get off of different foods that you grow is just amazing. And you got. You really have to start thinking outside of just growing lettuces and tomatoes. If that’s enough answer for yeah, that’s great. I’ve won. I thought of first of all, the municipal herbs I think is excellent. And I’ve thought of that as, you know, for anyone that’s rural. I mean you could probably do it in an apartment, I don’t know.

But you know, those are very high value in a very short, you know, very space challenged area. I mean to grow certain herbs that you could turn into tinctures and use as, you know, as medicine. Really one that you didn’t mention and one I’ve done on and off is microgreens. You know, it’s taking those seeds, putting them in a jar and watering every day and put the bottle in the sunlight and all of a sudden, you know, a few weeks later, weeks, few days later you got alfalfa sprouts or mung sprouts or whatever. And those things are highly nutritious.

Really doesn’t take much effort whatsoever. But of course you have to have the seeds in order to do it. But you know, you can buy these seed packs off of I’m sure Amazon or other places. And that’s something you could do in any apartment anywhere with very little effort. Do you want to add on to that? I’m ready to move on to the next one unless you want to add anything further. No, please move it. Yeah, your nutrition is going to be one thing and just historical Records for thousands of years. During times of famine, the hardest thing to secure are oils.

Oils, because you need that oil and that fat in your brain so you can function, you can have all the food in the world. That’s why a lot of vegetarians and vegans, if you’re not cooking with olive oil, if we’re just kind of doing something out of soups with very little oil, they start to not their cognitive abilities kind of diminish. Well, the same thing. Famine after famine after famine. Read through any part of the world at any time, the biggest number one thing they had difficulty. They could go. They could go get different types of, you know, proteins out of the forest.

But everything they would do, as soon as they would like get a hog or get any kind of birds or any kind of fish, they would harvest to get the oil first because the oil is the most difficult thing to get. No oil, your brain shuts down, your brain doesn’t think, so how can you get. And the last thing is, you know, you got to focus on oils more than just like, you know, roughage, veg or something. Yeah, good idea. Thanks for the micro proteins. Yeah, microgreens. Thanks for bringing that out. Yeah, that’s extremely important. So we have, we maybe oversold this.

You know, famine, hard times. I mean, you know, there is human innovation, human ingenuity. People adapt. But you know, you can adapt all you want. If it’s not enough to eat, you don’t have enough calories, you’re back. As you said in the dark ages. But have you challenged your own premises? Like the late, great Ayn Rand said, check your premises. Is there something out there that maybe we’re missing or that you’ve thought of that might mitigate this situation? I would say I was guilty of my own bias, talking about the Hunga Tonga eruption and the effect it would have on ice crystal clouds in the mesosphere and depletion of ozone.

I was too egregious on that call. Check myself to. There’s going to be more ice crystal clouds that’s going to deplete the ozone. Maybe I made, I did make a couple bad calls on that, which made me look like a fool of sorts, you know, so checking your own bias is a great thing to do because of times. I’m guilty of that as anybody out there. Even more so because people are listening to, you know, what I might have to say because I have an audience out there. So I need to be very cognizant of that.

After innovation will be there. But until the prices go up. It won’t. And at what point are you so far behind the curve? By the time the price point gets there for people to innovate and install new ways to grow food. Think about biodiesel and the biofuels. Way back in say 2005 and 6, great financial crisis time, oil skyrocketed to like 147 a barrel, I think was the ultimate number. But nothing moved in the biofuels arena until it got to that pinch point. Even at 100, 120, no, whatever, we’ll just pay it. But once it got and eclipsed a certain point, but it was way too thin by the time this whole biofuel thing started.

The crisis was already here and done and gone before. And then all those like the switchgrass projects, which Bush was all famous for, and you know, the algae biodiesels and that whole genre of it’s going to fix the problem and add to the fuel supply. The, all the funding dried up immediately after the oil price dropped back down. Now if it would continue into Infinim, perhaps we would be on a different, you know, ball playing field here. But until that price point’s there, and I let me tell you right here in Taiwan, the fishing fleet’s not going out as far.

They’re willing to catch smaller fish and they’re repricing by the week. Now it has, it’s been stable for the last two weeks. But when I first got here, the price of fish was going up every single week because the price of diesel for the fishermen was going up and they were very clean. Until the price of the fish goes high enough for us to cover the diesel costs, we’re not going out any further. So fish was off the plate. And so there’s a lot of things going on with fish fishing fleets. I mean even over in the Netherlands over there, I believe it was €13,000 was the average bill for, you know, fishing fleets weekly went up to 36,000.

So their entire fleet stayed in. Why? Because the fish wasn’t expensive enough to cover the diesel cost. Now if that flips and the fish becomes so expensive that it does then go cover the cost and then gives in some profit for the fishermen for their time and energy. You’re going to be paying 2, 3, 4, 5 times as much for those fish for them to cover that cost. So you get into this feedback loop everywhere you look. Innovation won’t go there until the prices are high. Proteins from the oceans aren’t coming anymore. They’re going to greatly diminish until the, until the prices go incredibly high where it can, you know, offset the fisherman’s time and they’re not going to lose money going out to catch like wherever you’re looking at it, it’s, it’s hitting us every single place on the food chain now.

No pun intended. But I, I do believe this one’s going to be a little bit different animal. This one seems more planned to bring us into a new system than just some organic kind of set of events happening. Just my own opinion, you can agree or disagree but like I say I, I burnt myself being too egregious on the call. So this time I’m reeling it way, way, way back and this is my assessment even after I pulled way back now. Appreciate it. Well, we’re pretty much covered everything I wanted to, everything I outlined, everything I made notes on.

Is there anything that I haven’t asked you that we need to bring to the fore before we close out? Well, I would just like to pick your brain on history as you know talking about the convertibility of silver in a situation like this. I mean how is anybody going to know the, the spot price that even be there any longer? Like if we truly get into some sort of crisis situation where people are now trading, stock markets aren’t functioning correctly, bond markets in a tizzy like how do people really find the price of silver if the established market going to be pricing lack of or those just don’t anymore it’s coming.

How does anybody determine the price of silver in such a situation? Or gold? Well it’d be tough. I mean first of all I think that as long as the Internet is up, you know there’s all kinds of websites out there. There’s one called Coin inflation and you can go on there and at any time of the day you can put in what’s a silver dime worth. And right now it’s worth $5 and 35 cents fiat. So you know what it’s worth there. But let’s say the grid goes down and now what do you do you and that’s going to be one on one looking the farmer in the eye and say, you know, last time I paid silver, the last time the Silver Mart was open it was at $75 the ounce.

But I’m really hungry, I’m willing to pay you, you know, instead of one ounce per pound, I’m going to pay two ounces per pound. Do you accept that offer? So just go back to real basics, you know, bid offer or maybe it’d be an auction method but, you know, people say, well, you know, I got a real problem. I need to eat. Well, the farmer’s got a problem, too. I mean, here in the Palouse and I’m just north of it. I mean, they got a wheat problem. These farmers grow I don’t know how many bushels a week.

They can’t eat it all. They can’t bake that much bread. They’re farmers. They’re not going to have make a bakery. So they’re going to take grand pianos for bushels of wheat. They’re going to take, you know, china for bushels a week. They’ll take silver for bushels a week. We. And not that you, you know, live on bread alone. My point being that we will, you know, make do, make the best of what we have, barter, whatever we have. But your question’s an excellent one. I don’t have a solid looking the eye answer. This is what’s going to be.

That would be like any other time. You’re gonna say, hey, two pieces of fish is worth, you know, 10 apples. And the guy will feel, I’m not doing it. You know, give me two and a half fish and I’ll make the trade. You know, so it’s going to have to go back to that in that kind of a condition. Now, I guess my last question would be then, with the current, you just hit it on, you say 75, but. Or even when it was at 100 and plus 115. I mean, do you really think that. How undervalued is it? I mean, I’ve seen you on a few other shows talking to people that you think that this price that we’re seeing here is tremendously undervalued, that in the future it is going to go multiples of hundreds of dollars higher than it is now, just in a very short order of time.

Like, do you have any Apex on the price or can it just. Yeah, well, you know me, I think about it all the time. Sorry if I interrupted, but no. So going back to what we talked about earlier. So you go back to, like I said, the 1880s through the early 1900s. A dollar a day. So a dollar a day again, is 3/4 of an ounce. Well, what is the average price? And I did this little thought experiment about a year and a half ago. I was surprised. The average wage in the United States, according to Google, is 25 the hour.

So an eight hour day is 25 times eight, that’s $200. So if we round it up that the new dollar by the US Mint announce of silver is, is one day’s labor, that’s $200. So that one ounce is equal to a day’s labor. The day’s labor for the average person is 200. And one ounce would equal 200. It’s that simple. So was that mean silver’s undervalued? And I would argue absolutely it is. The problem with silver is no one, very few think of it as money. And so it’s not priced as money. It’s priced as a, as an industrial commodity.

And the industrial sector wants it down as low a price as it possibly can force it down to because that way they get a better margin on their solar panel or their DVD player or the flat screen TV or their silver battery, and that’s what they want. So they got these two forces really. One that’s basically industrial side saying, you know, let’s keep it down. And that’s 60 of the market now. And then you’ve got the other side, which is jewelry, which is kind of neutral, maybe biased a little bit to the upside. And then investment side it says, wait a minute.

Silver’s historical mean average price was one ounce would buy a day’s worth of labor. If you go back into Roman times, it was one tenth that amount. 1/10 an ounce was a soldier’s wage. So I’d be very generous at one ounce for one day’s labor. So 200 is the number. As a thought experiment, it’s undervalued on that metric. It should be about triple what it is now at 70. 3 times 7 is 210. And I do believe that we haven’t seen the top, but you know, so many black swans are out there in this food one.

And I think he gave really the best answer. I mean, I totally agree with you. Doesn’t make us both right. But you know, until the mainstream media tells people there’s a food crisis, no one’s going to know it. I mean, not no one, but the masses won’t. And that’s sad. That’s a very sad, sad, sad situation for the way the world is really so dependent on the authority figures telling us what to do and what to think, rather than have the raw courage and the native intelligence of critical thinking on our own to use discernment and figure out what’s really going on ahead of time.

Thanks for your time. I’m glad I’m your friend. It’s always a pleasure. I’ll give it back to you to close out. Just tell people where they could find more of your Work. And how long are you going to be over in Asia? Yeah. Thank you. And you know, my last clumsy comment of it. See, it’s probably going to be the media to tell people that the silver is now worth monetary value before they figure it out themselves that it was money in almost the last, the entire history of humanity from at least the last reset until now.

Same thing with the food. Nobody’s going to believe the food shortage until the media tells them. And then, you know, it’s just, why is it that everything is reliant? So I think powers that be understand the reliance on the human thought that they can just push society any direction it wants to go. And I talk about this on the Civilization Cycle podcast because it is a cycle of our civilization. Up and down, up and down, up and down. School officials turn it right, turn it left, bend it up and down. That’s exactly. The media has so much control over the narratives and how people think and they’re even, you know, funneling us into smaller and smaller and smaller and smaller channels.

If you notice that the algorithm now is really pushing everybody and just like micro channel of information. I think the algorithm of today is trying to dissuade you, doing rightly and smartly being a generalist, trying to use and look at all the information across there to get on a wider view, to try to put these dots together. They’re trying to funnel you down into one single line that you belong in so you won’t see like blinders, so you won’t see the outside. And I’m not talking about just the normie consciousness. I’m talking about smart people too, that every time you turn on a Focus User algorithm right back into the thing you commented on last you looked at last.

It’s hard to like wiggle your way out. And I want to see something new. And why is that? That’s the whole thing. And please, everybody out there, take heed. The prices are going to keep going up. This is the next step up. And how do you protect yourself? So if we just double what we. If we do the exact same that we did from 2019 through Covid to now, and then it layers on top the exact same amount. Not anymore, but the exact same equal percentage of our entire life doubling and tripling and it does it again.

What’s your plan for that? What’s your mechanism to deal with all these higher prices? Like hit the escape button, boosh. I can get out of inflation by going to another place. By the way, setting up the second residence here is the Safety net. Two places on the planet in different continents with different variables moving forward. One’s a BRICS line, you know, Asian area. The other one’s, you know, western aligned, you know, western centric area. So which one will survive, I’m not sure. But to have it, if you have the ability to have an escape plan or a mood, not an escape, but just a movement plan between continents that are disrelated in politics and disrelated in economy.

I know it’s a world economy, but. But generally things are moving in different directions in the Asian economy is really growing much more than, you know, what the western nations are now, especially Europe. So it’s a plan of movement for the best choice. If something were to go wrong in one of those places, everybody should have that ability. And that’s the way you can protect yourself. And you and the fathers listening out there. You as a household, you really need to take care for your families. Like it’s your responsibility to find these plans and get them ready in case you do have to move your families or do have to do something with these higher prices, you can’t rely on taking that money and the universal basic handouts because they are going to require so many hoops to go through.

You need to be of your own volition that you set your life up and your set of circumstances knowing the inbound impacts that you don’t have to take the gift that is going to keep on giving because it’s going to be atrocious. What they’re going to ask you to keep your family fed. And I would not wish that on anybody. So please prepare wisely and that’ll be my thank you for having me on. My pleasure. Thank you, Sam.
[tr:tra].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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