I have a friend that needs to plant and he said, he’s located in Oklahoma and he said that his fertilizer costs have doubled. Now, a lot of farmers may be saying, hey, I’m good. I’ve got fertilizer. But the problem is for those that didn’t think ahead and they’re paying these higher prices, those higher prices have to come ultimately to the end user, which is all of us, right? Eating. And we just saw that the government put out the fact that produce, both fresh and frozen produce went up over 40% last month alone.

This is not a joke. I believe this is going to get worse, not only because of the cost of fertilizer, but the cost of diesel fuel to transport all of this. It says here, around one third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz according to the United Nations. That’s a massive amount. The waterway, a critical shipping route now that runs along Iran’s border has been severely disrupted since the war. It says here, since the US and Israel launched the strikes on Iran on February 28th, the price of fertilizer, much of which is produced in the Middle East, has skyrocketed.

Then the amount it skyrocketed, what? I know. They’re angry. Angry geese. I get it. Fertilizer may come down in price. All right, let’s get back to it. The amount that it’s happened, fertilizer contracts, futures contracts, are less liquid than other commodities, making prices more opaque. But analysts working in the sector told CNBC that they’ve seen the cost of FOB granular urea in Egypt, a bellwether of nitrogen fertilizers, jump to around $700 per metric ton up from between $400 and $490 before the war began. So you’re looking at almost a doubling of just that one part.

But because there’s such a supply chain in the creation of fertilizer, it’s going to cause it to go even more. I’m trying not to step in geese crap. All right, with that being said, I better get out of here. The economy ninja is out. [tr:trw].

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