The dollar is up 11. The S&P 500 is down 13. The NASDAQ is down 103. The VIX is up 54 basis points. Gold is up $10 from COMEX. Sorry. Gold is up $10. Silver is up 50 cents. $49.86 and $77.70 respectively. They’re off their highs of the evening. WTI is up $1.16 and $66.20 above an important threshold for me. A bullish threshold I should say. Natural gas $3.29 up a penny and a half. Platinum down $1.55. Palladium down $12 and change. Gold silver steady at $64 and change. Grains are all up. So we’re trading soybeans trading $11.32, coin $4.24 and change and wheat $5.62.

Bitcoin which is down the list now. Unchange at $66,473. Really not much keeping it up right now. I don’t know why it’s going down but it is going down. From page we’re going to be discussing the top right hand story. Hartnett’s client base says gold is the most crowded trade. We’ll go through the permutations of that and what is and is not consistent. The February global fund manager survey that Bank of America puts out monthly shows long gold as the most crowded trade for a second straight month, surpassing long tech and short dollar positions.

Investors expect a cycle peak over $6,200 with meaningful trade and upside tails above $7,000 while fewer now view gold as overvalued despite rising prices. Fewer now view gold as overvalued despite rising prices. Still number one on the way down. Commodity allocations are the highest since 2022, reinforcing gold’s strength. However, contrarian indicators flash caution with position risk prompting suggestions of long bonds versus short gold pair trades. Now I’m going to give you a take on this. It seems like there’s contradictions. On the CTA side everybody is very under invested in gold.

On the hedge fund side everybody is under invested in gold but the global fund manager survey which is your long only equity guys are saying too many people are long gold. The professional take on that is this. They think it’s overbought not that there’s too many people long it. There’s a difference in the wording and it’s my job to parse those words. They think gold is the most overbought that makes it the most crowded but they’re not long it. Do you follow? When you’re not long something and it’s up you say it’s overbought and mysteriously last week it was 51% said it was overbought then the market rallied and now only 50% say it’s overbought.

So you have to look at these things as contrarian and I say that because in the report Hartnett was quick to note that the last time well he didn’t note it this time I did the last time they thought gold was really overbought was in June of 2025 and gold was trading 32.75. Now the market went sideways to slightly lower for about five weeks after that and then August 26th it started to explode higher. So take it for what it’s worth this might be a good contrarian indicator for gold bulls. Moving on other news that we had yesterday gold and PGM mining earnings forecasts were put out you know there were a lot of good mining reports that came out yesterday and the miners are acting very volatility you know heckler up five percent down five percent.

Um uh Ken Ross earnings came out really well I believe. Look if you’re looking to invest in the precious metals area I would say to you without being an advisor I would say to myself that the next money I put in will be in miners and I’ve been threatening to give a list of miners and you should know that I’ve made some progress on that. I’m actually going to be sitting down with CEO technician and doing that next week in a joint podcast for both of our audiences. But we believe I believe and he believes that um that the next run in metals will be because the people who aren’t investing just throw in the towel and say wait a minute silver and gold are still up here maybe we should buy the miners and then the next forecast will be based on probably juniors and smaller than juniors you know the real juniors the explorers being purchased upstream by all these companies that have a lot of extra cash flow.

So look for the bigger guys to return dividends bigger dividends and some of them to start acquiring explorers because let’s face it you really can’t press a switch and pump oil out of pump gold out of the ground like you pump oil out you need to acquire explorers and that’s probably going to be the next level of that silver story so far we went through that founders why cheap silver is that we sent that out this morning to founders this has to do with price floors we will have another piece on this coming out later today or early tomorrow on why price floors are a factor in the silver price now and it’s one of the reasons that we are bullish the way we are or at least violently neutral the way we are.

Yesterday Wednesday Fed minutes came out and you’ll notice that after the Fed minutes came out or even before the Fed minutes came out silver and gold were smacked down at 130 when the COMEX closed well the fact that the market is back up so if you’re looking at futures you’ll see that silver and gold are down because they’re down from the 130 close but they’re up from the COMEX close so the bottom line here is the selling at 130 didn’t really have a lot of strength to it and now the market is climbing back up but let’s do a little bit of chart work here okay so we’d be remiss to not mention oil again because you know I’m bullish oil but I don’t have anything on there’s my level above 66 and change is where I have a signal to pay attention now I’m bullish I have been bullish but I haven’t had a position on so my opinion means nothing right I have an opinion in no position that’s just an opinion right but now we’re at an area where I need to take it make a decision that decision is either to get long or do nothing some people might want to consider shorting it here but I look at this for those of you who are familiar with this from silver it’s not a measured move but it’s similar right so you have a depth equals distance 66 down to 62 that’s $4 we can actually go all the way down to here but I’m going to 62 you can add $4 to this $70 and be on the radar if you went to the lower price which is 61 you’d be a 70 $71 okay so I am of the opinion that this market can run to 70 and $71 which also coincidentally works with my floor concept now silver great day yesterday I can’t tell you how good of a day it is for me from my heart from my heart condition let’s put it that way this was the area that I said below 75 I start to pay attention and I get really nervous below about 71 $70 and of course the market of course the market stopped turned around and rallied now the day’s not over yet the week’s not over yet but I believe that given that this is Monday was up Tuesday was down Wednesday was up Thursday and Friday should be higher this should be higher if it’s a trend week higher and it feels like a trend week higher there’s your knife being caught right drop and catch drop and catch not really catching a lot drop and catch and now the buying remains there we believe the buying is real we believe the buying is there but that’s not to say that we think the market’s getting over $90 we think the market’s gonna have a hard time getting above $82 but above $82 it should go to $84 so that’s that’s our take on silver gold looks better right remember there’s your bear flag there’s your bear flag violated there’s your hiccup there’s your catch the knife catch the knife catch the knife a little bit less catch the knife a little bit firmer so I believe I could say with a high degree of confidence based on these chart patterns that there is big buying in gold and silver the question is is it patient or not and it has been patient here became a little less patient a little less patient a little bit more patient but it stopped it’s not getting back to here at least for now I’m not going so I believe there is big buying in these markets uh and that that buying will return uh when the Chinese New Year uh wraps up Happy New Year by the way also I want to drop a thank you to Jake for um a couple guys had asked us to put up ways to donate and we’re not one to do that too much but we put up a coffee to buy a coffee for people and that’s specifically for the uh Jake uh uh bought a couple coffees for Charlie and he bought a couple coffees for the uh uh the boobs and bullion girl uh a half yet so we appreciate that and we forwardage your well wishes as well as your money um I’m Vince have a great day well thank you Vincent for another great show this morning and thank you to you at home for being out there and joining in here and watching along with us fun to talk with so many of you in the chat and if you enjoyed the show go ahead and hit that subscribe button and the notification bell so that you can stay posted as these different events continue to unfold in the precious metals markets and just in case you miss what Vince had to say yesterday well that one is coming your way now
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