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Summary
➡ The project will start making money in a few months and is financially strong at $2,750. Discussing a higher amount of $4,600 seems unnecessary. Jorge also mentioned production figures, a legal case, and a plant expansion at Seguela.
Transcript
Over 300 irreplaceable artifacts were stolen in minutes. As silver prices rise, history is disappearing. We take you inside the heist that erased centuries of craftsmanship in a single night. That man is not wanted for questioning. Start with the markets. Tenure yields are up one. The dollar is down 10. The S&P 500 is up 32. The NASDAQ is up 140. The VIX is down another 76 basis points. Gold is down 10 at 4822. Silver is down 8 after being up some of the night at 93 cents. Okay, just stopping right there. Gold has been down for most of the night.
Silver opened and continued selling another 75 cents or so in another dollar. I’m sorry, 75 basis points, another dollar or so. Washout as Shanghai opened and then it recovered. Now it’s hovering around on change. So I think everything is taking a breath today. Copper is down 7 cents. WTI is down 116. Natural gas is up another 11 cents at 518. Bitcoin is up 500 and change. Theorem is up a little bit. Palladium is up 6. Platinum is up 19. Gold silver is lower and you can see the grains there. I went through in very in detail last night in the recap what happened and why silver and gold did what they did and ostensibly what the news items were tied to that.
I’m not going to go through those again today. You can read that. It’s all there. But just suffice to say, in summary, silver and copper saw the news coming out of the White House out of Trump and said, oh, less tariffs, less concern about future tariffs. And they tumbled. Gold tumbled as well, but from a much higher level. And then gold stabilized, stopped and ended up finishing up on the day $50, even though it was up, I think, almost $100 at one point. So silver fell and fell. But near the end of the day, they had a very nice long wick that pulled it back up.
So we assume that’s physical demand that pulled it back up, but all of the selling was New York based. So it doesn’t mean it’s bullish or bearish. Just giving you a fact. OK, the market dropped. Shanghai is here. US is here. And Shanghai stayed wider as New York dropped. OK, now, why is that? Because it’s like an EFP. Pretend this is London and pretend this is New York. The EFP winds in a drop because the physical demand is there. So Shanghai, for better or worse, is the epicenter of the market. Shanghai is the fucking market now.
I mean, at least in this moment, silver drops in the US. Silver is the tail. The dog is here. So if nothing else, the bid here is sticky because no one is selling over there. It’s just like the EFP. Anyway, it’s not over yet. It’s far from over. But right now, the demand in China determines the price, not the supply in the US. And that’s why that dip was a buy. And that’s very good. That’s very good to say very often. I’m not going to throw water on it. I’m just going to say, you know, if you see enough of these, eventually this will crack.
And when this cracks, then you want to see who buys it. So for now, it’s like this. It’s like stretch, pull, right? So this is the anchor and this. So it’s reverse of an anchor concept. This is the person of the bridge with a bungee cord, and this is the bungee cord. Boom, boom, keeps pulling it back up. And that’s what’s going on in the markets now. Second, so there’s the here’s the museum story, right? The museum story. The silver museum Duisburg, Duisburg was emptied overnight as Steve stole its entire antique silver collection.
More than 300 historic objects vanished in a pre-dome burglary inside a 13th century church. Museum leaders call it a loss of craftsmanship, memory, and cultural heritage, not just silver. Can’t believe they’d say that. Not just silver. Silver’s worth more than a lot of other things out there. Now, this is actually interesting because it was pretty, we have, we have the full story. Okay. And in the full story, we give you some pictures and then we also give you the break in how they went through the building. So it’s kind of interesting.
And that’s why the De Niro picture came to mind, even though I don’t think Jimmy the jet was involved next. And this is going to be a story that’s coming out later today. We have a hunch above ground silver we believe is increasingly spoken for, meaning there is none available. It’s all in someone’s hands. There is no more available. That’s our opinion. It’s not a complete opinion yet, but we’ll tell you why now. The price rise is designed to bid the silver out of people’s hands. And here’s the early proof. Copper and silver are no longer trading as separate stories.
Their industrial roles and electrification grid build out and advanced manufacturing are tightening their price correlation. It’s all in the price correlation because most silver is produced as a by-product of mining. Other metals, copper is like 20 or 30% of it alone. Any constraint in copper supply mechanically tightens silver supply as well. At the same time, silver’s industrial importance is rising just as global awareness of its compatibility with gold as a store of value grows. That’s the stuff that Eric and I are talking about in Asia, that silver could be a HQLA.
I don’t think it will be, but silver is definitely going to be a store of value that’s used monetarily. So copper is setting the pace. And silver is increasingly magnifying and multiplying the move. Silver has moved from the most ignored metal on earth to the Goldilocks metal. It is industrial when the world needs productivity, monetary when the world needs protection, and uniquely portable for both roles at once. No other metal sits as comfortably at the intersection of technology, capital preservation, and physical scarcity. We have a piece that we’re putting out to demonstrate the correlation.
The correlation has always been a three-metal correlation, gold, silver, and copper. So how is silver acting like copper or like gold? And it always acts like gold and it always acts worse than gold until 2025 when now it acts like gold and it acts better. And we suspect that’s copper doing the work. And by the way, both of those metals were listed as critical. So tune in for that. That’s going to be around noon today. That’ll be out. It’s going to be a full beta analysis as well as an industry comparison. Coming soon.
That’s the second and third ones there. And we’ll do the tariff later on. Data on deck. What’s today? Is today Thursday? Today’s Thursday. GDP first revision. So that could have some effect. By the way, it’s 804. And there’s the four markets, gold, silver, copper, dollar. And I’m going to create a grid, a correlation grid with gold as the x and y axis and silver and copper as a scattergram in the middle. And we’ll see how that looks today. Don’t miss it. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thank you, Vincent, for another fantastic week of coverage here on the Arcadia Economics channel where our beloved Vince brings us not only the activity in the gold and silver markets, but made sure if anything happens in Sawyer wheat, that you’re kept up to speed on those as well.
Did want to pass along an update from Fortuna Mining where they did just release their fourth quarter production numbers. We came in with production in line with guidance and actually press release also talks about two of the projects that they are rapidly moving forward that will likely be a big part of their production in the next coming years as they get to that 500,000 pounds per year mark. And here’s a quick note from Jorge talking about what’s going on in Fortuna. The big story for us is with the outlook because we have a very strong organic growth pipeline.
We have two paramount projects for the company. One is the construction decision for the AMBA suit project, which we are quite sure that we will be making a positive decision and full investment decision by mid-year. We are well advanced with our permits and we are so encouraged by the strong economics of the study, the PEA preliminary economic assessment we delivered last year that we have this year allocated a $100 million budget to advance the AMBA suit. The AMBA suit is a project that at $2,750, that’s a price we used in the study, yields an internal rate of return of 72 percent.
The payback on the project is a few months. So it’s a project of robust economics at $2,750. I don’t even want to plug $4,600 into that financial model because, you know, what number are we going to get? Well, thank you Jorge. Sure appreciate everything he shared there. And Jorge talked about the production numbers, the AMBA suit, the plant expansion at Seguela, and more. Well, that one is coming your way now. [tr:trw].
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