➡ Goldman Sachs has released a report suggesting that silver, like gold, is experiencing a change in its traditional correlations, indicating a shift in the market. The Department of Justice is investigating Fed Chair Powell, causing market reactions such as a weakened dollar and record gold prices. Other news includes a potential increase in uranium demand, a possible merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore to form the world’s largest mining company, and new restrictions on gold trading in Thailand. Lastly, there are predictions of a strong January for gold, based on historical patterns.
➡ Michael Oliver visited and discussed his weekend report on energy, stocks, bonds, and commodities, with a focus on metals. This was beneficial for subscribers and those considering subscribing. The discussion also touched on the market trends and potential targets for investments. The session will be released to founders and later to the general public, offering valuable insights and actionable ideas for trading.
➡ The CEO of Dolly Barton Silver, Sean Kunka, believes that the merger of two companies will create a larger platform and lead to a significant increase in the company’s value. They have a robust plan for 2026, including 70,000 meters of drilling, which will generate growth and earnings from a joint venture with Kinross. The market is already showing positive signs, with increased stock volume and price appreciation. More information about the deal can be found on their website, dollybardensilver.com.

Goldman Sachs put out a report that closely mirrors what the bank wrote about gold in 2024. At that time, we had highlighted that gold’s beta was changing and traditional correlations were temporarily suspended. Goldman stated then that the beta of gold is resetting higher. That language validated what we had already seen observing in 2023 and 24. The same framework is now being applied to silver. The old neo-Keynesian correlation structure is resetting at higher levels. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here is Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Golf Fix Market Rundown. It’s 7 40 in the a.m. Monday morning. I hope you had a good weekend. We have a lot of topics to go over, so let’s get to them in short order. First up, and this is potentially earth-shattering for the stability of markets, the Dow, the Dow. The Department of Justice is investigating Fed Chair Powell. We’ll go into that. Goldman’s Silver Secret. That’s a piece that we wrote over the weekend breaking down a Goldman Sachs report. Gold’s January Effect.

That’s an opinion by Deutsche Bank that we break down. There are three other news stories. Uranium Squeeze, EuroTinto, Ice, Glencore, and Thailand’s Cold Restrictions. And then, of course, there’s the market reaction function to these news items, which has been nothing short of extremely bullish. There’s the home page. Let’s look at the markets. Ten yields are up three. The dollar is down 37. The S&P 500 is down 38. The NASDAQ is down 155. Gold is up 75 at 45.85, another new all-time high. That’s 96 since 2024. But who’s counting? Silver, $8,407, a $4.17 above the previous all-time high, which puts us on a path to $92.

We’ll get into the potential for that later on. Copper up 2.6%. That’s $0.15. WTI up $0.02. Natural gas up $0.05. Bitcoin down $300. Ethereum down $7. Palladium up $42. And platinum up a mere $78 at $23.47. Gold, silver down almost $2. And grains are all up with the $1.4%. The first and most important story, the Department of Justice is opening a criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been subpoenaed as the Justice Department opens a criminal probe into the Fed’s headquarters renovation and related congressional testimony. Powell says the case is politically motivated and tied to monetary policy pressure.

Markets reacted swiftly with the dollar weakening, gold hitting records, and equity slipping. Very briefly. Whether it has merit or not doesn’t matter. It was done. And that shows to the rest of the world that the rule of law is bendable. By who? We don’t know, but it’s bendable. Over the weekend, we put out an analysis. We consider it must read if you’re a silver person. We view the development as important. Goldman Sachs put out a report that closely mirrors what the bank wrote about gold in 2024. At that time, we had highlighted that gold’s beta was changing and traditional correlations were temporarily suspended.

Goldman stated then that the beta of gold is resetting higher. Quote, that language validated what we had already seen observing in 2023 and 24. The same framework is now being applied to silver. The old neo Keynesian correlation structure is resetting at higher levels. Business, as usual, is no longer operating under those old assumptions. Structural change is now expressing itself in silver, just as it previously did in gold. We maintain our standard caveats and list them at the bottom of our analysis. The beta reset pattern is spreading and monetary metals will never be viewed the same way again.

Next up, the bullion banks are now talking about seasonality. Does gold have a January effect? January has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for gold. Over the past 10 years, approximately 70% of January’s have closed in positive territory. This pattern remains consistent when measured across longer horizons of 1520 and 25 years, according to Deutsche Bank. Meeting returns in January over the past 25 years have been close to plus 3% positioned in January as the most reliably bullish month for gold on a seasonal basis. Those of you who have been reading gold fix since 2022 know that we covered this very, very, very early on.

Actually, in an interview with Daniella Cambon, we went into the seasonality and why buy season starts in November and ends in February, and why sell season starts in August or September and ends in November. Since then, we’ve gone into that many times and explained it. We tell you here, in addition to what they say, why there is risk this analysis. While January and February are where the big money is made, but it’s not the easiest money to make. We would suggest you read that if you’re thinking about buying silver or gold right now.

Three pure news items. Uranium squeeze is set to intensify in 26 out of Toronto. The global uranium market entered 26 with a widening structural supply deficit as production constraints, geopolitical shifts, and rising nuclear power demand tightened availability, reshaping fuel procurement strategies across utilities, and reinforcing the strategic value of advanced uranium assets. We would say this as well. Uranium purchasing for nuclear power is at the margin very impulsive. It’s such a small percent of the actual expense going into developing nuclear power that they want to buy a little bit more, they don’t care what the price is.

Keep that in mind. Rio Tinto may buy Glencore to form the world’s biggest miner. Out of London, Rio Tinto confirmed it is an early-stage discussions to acquire Glencore and a potential all-shared transaction that will create the world’s largest mining company, underscoring intensifying consolidation pressures driven by rising demand for copper and other energy transition metals. We remind you that Glencore is the firm created by Mark Rich that avoided the oil embargo that got Mark Rich banned from the US, eventually that got him permitted back in by Bill Clinton, and now they’re going to be potentially partnering with Rio Tinto.

Look at Glencore as, there are a lot of things, but look at Glencore as the supply chain. They get it from point A to point B, they have the relationships, they have the warehouses, and look at Rio Tinto as the creator of the metal. Very important development and would be a signal for other companies to consolidate. Third story, Thailand begins gold restrictions. Now, Thailand is preparing new restrictions on gold trading and financial data reporting as authorities seek to contain currency distortions, speculative capital flows, and money laundering risks linked to a surge in gold transactions during a second rally in the precious metal, a record rally.

Okay, that’s pretense, that’s bullshit. China has been pulling gold and silver from all the satellite BRICS countries for the last year and a half now. You could see that in the kilogram bars that are just completely disappearing off the market. You could see that in eastern refineries being blocked up and only being able to make a certain size bar. You can see that in the locals in countries like Thailand are now hoarding gold because they see it disappearing. You can see what Thailand is doing is, Thailand is making sure that the Thai bot doesn’t get quote too weak compared to gold, but the truth of the matter is the gold is earmarked for China.

They want to make sure that they’re taking out the marginal competitors to it. Why is that important? Because it’s capital controls, because it’s the beginning of restriction of ownership of gold unless it’s sanctioned by the government itself. There’ll be more of that. More news and analysis over the weekend. Founders, we just sent this out, geopolitics, rest in peace, Pax Americana, that’s a breakdown of the NSS and our assessment of what it implies and it implies we’re not building nations anymore. We’re tearing them down or put it this way, we’re acquiring the resources from within them.

Ideologically speaking, we don’t give a shit anymore and that’s all part of the Don Roe doctrine. Hardnet, long boom economy, short bubble stocks. Interestingly, hardnet has a lot of sell signals on his contrarian indicators, but he’s telling his clients to stay long stocks but to move into cyclicals. Interesting because yesterday we had a conversation with Michael Oliver in the founders discussion, which I’ll be making available later on today, once I do some editing on it. And in that conversation, Michael and I were discussing one of the concepts of the fact that, well, let me just paraphrase what he said.

Stocks aren’t necessarily going to roll over tomorrow, okay? They can actually go up a little bit. They need to breathe a little bit higher before they set up for a sell off and keeping that in mind, that is a different way of saying what Michael Hardnet is saying, which is, don’t be short yet, but if you’re going to be long, be long safer stocks. So we discussed the leadership and many other things. We’ll talk a little bit more about that in a second. Data on deck this week, CPI and PPI, Monday, today’s speakers, CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, speakers on Thursday and Friday speakers.

I’m not sure if it’s related to the pal defense mechanism or not. Please buy new mugs and sweatshirts in addition to our hats and support independent media. MAGA, MAGA, we have the new, we have the new, I don’t know how to call it yet, but the gold, the Santiago gold mug, all the proceeds from that will go to charity, however many three that we sell. On Sunday, Michael Oliver visited us, spent about an hour, an hour and a half. And what we did was we, he took questions from everyone. And the format was we went through his weekend report, which is energy, which is stocks, bonds, and commodities.

And there was a big feature on metals in there as well. And he went through his premise and we discussed many things in those areas. So it’s kind of like a walkthrough of his report, which I think was very beneficial for people who already subscribed to him. You know, it gets you a feel for how to walk through it. And for those that are considering subscribing to him. Anyway, that was tremendous time. I really appreciated that. Thank you for dropping by. And well, you know, we recommend his work and well, we’re reciprocal in that regard.

But there you have it. Again, it was about an hour and hour and a half. I’ll be releasing that to founders later on today and then unlocking it for the general public later on in the week. Lots of some, lots of good insight, some insights in there that he hasn’t mentioned before yet. We actually discussed some particular, particular minors. We discussed silver, SIL versus SILJ, for example. SIL juniors, I think Michael said that 35% of SILJ was in SIL. So there’s really nothing junior about it. But then also that reminds me something that Jordan Roy Byrne had said.

Anyway, so that’s it. Let’s look at the markets. But I want to start with an actionable idea. Your action, not mine. I’m not telling you what to do. Common sense disclaimers. I said if we get above this all time high, the wick that we had a measured move. You know what? We do. I mean, it doesn’t get any more perfect to have this conversation. Whether it happens or is profitable or not, we don’t know. But this is the perfect moment to have this conversation. So here’s how it works. When a market is in a trend and makes a new all time high or low, and you have a rejection off the high, especially when I know who’s selling it.

And the market has a violent retracement, stabilizes, then works its way up in a semi-orderly fashion. Well, this is a cap, trade, and accumulate. When it gets above here, a lot of people are looking for what’s my next target. Now, your next target could be $144. Your next target could be $300. It could be $500. I don’t care. Not everybody can stay that long-term focused all the time. Some people, excuse me, need signposts along the way. And so this is another signpost. These have served us very well. Okay, pickups. Above this high, you have depth equals distance.

So you have $83.70. You go wick to wick on these. Down to $70.30. So that’s $13. That puts us at $96. Now, let me just back it off a little bit, just to hedge my own enthusiasm. $83. We’ll put a fine point on it for everyone. That needs to be pinpoint on this. Above $83.75, $71.50. So let’s call it $71.75. $12. $92.75. That’s a target. Your targets on the upside, they can be based on Fibonacci. They are at $166. What have you. But there are three ways to look at markets when we’re at this stage.

It just doesn’t matter. We’re going up. That’s the I’ve been long and bullish forever mindset. They don’t need to have this conversation. They’re not watching the show. Then there’s the people like Michael Oliver that say, look, I’m very convinced that it’s going to anywhere from $150 to $300. And he has his indicators that say that. And those are things And I have this I have a similar mindset Stemming from my understanding of critical minerals and what happens to them And then there’s people who want to think like us But who have to get up and look at shit for a living and are trying to not react to it And I’m saying to you that if you have nothing on if you’re not bullish or bearish This is a measured move trade.

The measured move trade is you get long Not you me. I got long Right here right now The problem with these trades is when do you get out if you’re wrong? and The answer is it depends Technically not technically Fundamentally one way to do this is you buy it right here 84 or 4 bang. We’ve all bought it right here and You stop yourself out But a tight stop if the market goes below 83 75 intraday That’s an aggressive stop loss and not stop loss is something that you’ll get out and get back in you’ll keep getting You’ll chop yourself up as we get and that’s the Paul Tudor Jones way.

I mean, I’m out. I’m in I’m out I’m in and out. I’m in and then when it starts to work, he just triples down and it goes his way That’s the first way not everybody can watch a screen all day, right? I don’t even do it anymore that way Second way as you say if it settles below 83 75 I’m out But what if it’s early in the day in the markets blow a 375 well you save it settles boy 375 I’m out or if it trades and you find another price the price might be 8275 the price might be how much money you’re comfortable losing on any one trade, but that’s the way to do it Okay, so for me I have been for the last week putting on I mentioned this in the chat I’ve been putting on short a IQ and long Si LJ and Si L So I’ve been putting this trade on pre-emptively Because I’m bearish stocks and I wanted to do it with miners.

You guys know that I wanted to do miners anyway So the trade right now, which I will do if we’re in this area here is to buy it with a stop out And And if it if it’s going to work, it’ll work rather efficiently It won’t be like six months of sideways movement because the lot sideways is bad for this even though sideways is bullish For silver in general sideways is bad for this. You don’t want it to think and hesitate Maybe we put maybe we go ahead and pull back once then go up who knows but you don’t want it to go sideways This should happen in short order.

That’s how measured moves work at least in my experience And of course, you can look at other things like trend lines or what have you but that’s that’s the trade Uh that i’m going to do I recommend you do nothing except except see a therapist if you’re thinking about doing something that I just Uh said and i’m not joking um gold Oh by the way This is these kind of get You know people talk about uh cup and handle like this is a little bit of a deli cup and handle There’s your cup and there’s your handle.

There’s your breakout. You know what? That is what that is It’s also a measured move Broken and a measured move broken. So the measured move it’s very fractal this market right now. You could say above 82 30 We’ve got nine dollars in this on the upside as long as we stay above uh 82 30 and we’ve got potentially up to 13 dollars if we stay above 83 80 I don’t want to blow smoke up your ass. Just be aware that News items will change this i’ll give you a date to think about January 16th, the u.s government’s going to announce likely whether they are tiring or not tiring silver Let’s assume that they’re not tiring silver But doesn’t mean we’ll stop buying it, but let’s assume we’re not tiring silver and you will shake out speculative longs doing that i’m vince Buy a hat subscribe All those good things.

Have a great day Well, thank you vince for bringing us the mercantilism as only vince and can and thank you at home for joining in and watching as We’re really in the midst of history Quite a volatile time in the golden silver markets But hopefully you’re enjoying the action and I guess it’s a lot more fun than in the 2010s decade And we had some volatility although with a much lower price. So Anyway, thanks for being here Hope you had fun and just wanted to pass along a note from dolly barton silver One of the proud sponsors of the arcade economics show that helps make vince’s broadcast each morning possible And dolly barton as you may have heard announced a merger with contango ore back in december 8 which has a nice synergy of bringing the production from contango re along with the portfolio of projects to dolly barton and Lying them to have a great source of funding and being able to move those forward and creating a larger entity which Certainly with the current price environment is an incredibly good time to have access to that And to hear a little bit more about the deal Here is sean kunka and the ceo of dolly barton silver just highlighted here chris.

Um, I think there’s a huge opportunity for a re-rating and I think before you know, we look beyond Our existing portfolio which is already for big mining districts and you know, we’ve got A a very very robust 2026 planned where we’ve got seventy thousand meters of drilling which will generate a lot of catalysts a lot of growth you know, we’ve got the the earnings coming from the the joint venture with kinross and So we’ve got we’ve got an opportunity here to get out and we’re already seeing it You know the market is celebrating the the transaction, you know, we’re seeing price appreciation We’re seeing big volume come into the stock and and what’ll happen is when these two companies come together It’ll be even a larger platform.

So we think there’s a big opportunity in the spring for a big revaluation That’s coming And you know look if we find ourselves in a place where the market values combined co In line with its peers, maybe we’ll continue to look for more opportunities. But you know, I think for the next six months We’re really excited about the drill programs and lucky shot the new mre And and just getting out and sharing the value proposition with our existing investors But for many of the investors who you know need things like, you know, 10 million dollars a day liquidity Billion-dollar market cap there is a huge world a huge community in the investment community that you know We did not qualify for prior to this merger that we now do Well, thank you sean and that was rick van newen heist That was also on the screen with him there who is the head of contago or e and to find out A little bit more about the deal link in the description field below and we’ll also be having sean on the show later this week To talk more about it So thanks again for tuning in and you can go to dollybardensilver.com to find out more about what they’re doing there And we’ll see you again tomorrow You
[tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.