It’s 7.38. There’s the front page. We’re going to be talking about the top right hand post-mini pod. Well, next week’s Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing kills Silver’s rally. And there is noise involved in that. It is material. There are a couple bank reports out there discussing it as written up by Zero Hedge. Breaking down why it could or should be bearish. And we in our mini pod discuss that report, discuss the context of it, and give an opinion or two on what we think is going on. Let’s start with the markets. 10 yields are up one. The dollar is up five.

The S&P 500 is down 18. NASDAQ is down 66. The VIX is up 37 base points. Silver is down in China. And it’s down in the US. Trading $74.81 in the US, down $335. Gold $44.26, down $30. So over 4% in Silver. It’s a second down day in a row. We haven’t had one of those, I think, in forever. Copper is up 11 basis points. WTI is up $0.40. Again, that’s also part of the rebalancing. Natural gas is down $0.09. Bitcoin down $1,500, below $90,000 again. That’s disappointing. Ethereum down $0.74. Palladium down $0.50. Platinum down $1.14.

There’s such a war going on right now over control of metals pricing and metal supply. And even though the metals are doing all the movement, a lot of this is about energy. We’re capturing tankers now. Whether they’re tankers or not is irrelevant. We’re throwing ships out of the Western Hemisphere. Hands off. Gold silver up over two. And grains are down for the most part. Before we do the main story, we just want to remind you that coming soon, Bank of America likes the gold that loves the silver in 2026. Michael Oliver will be stopping by for the founders on Sunday to discuss metal stocks and bonds.

That’s an exclusive. And we’re going to get into what does the Bloomberg rebalancing mean for silver, gold, and oil. And we also did an interview with Michael, sat down with Michael, interviewed by Tom Bodjerviks. And that should be out sometime either today or tomorrow. Recent silver weakness reflects the annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing, not a breakdown of fundamentals. Forced ETF selling is a known mechanical event that happens every January. History shows it does not determine direction. It’s not to say it can’t affect the market. Physical demand remains intact, meaning any rebalancing driven sell off is likely temporary rather than structural.

Now, just to put a little bit, a little bit finer point on it without giving away the whole podcast and analysis. There’s a write up in there as well. Intervention, we contend and have said for years, decades, even that intervention only helps in the direction of the trend already existing. So in this case, the intervention is the mechanical rebalancing that happens every year. Now, this is a big rebalancing because silver and gold have had such huge moves. And if you go back and you do some regression analysis historically, the rebalancings do tend to make what rally drop than what sold off rally.

They do tend to mitigate trends that are already in place. They do not reverse trends. What I mean in English? Well, in the past, the rebalancings mattered a lot, a lot. In fact, if you are a goldfish subscriber for a long time, you know, I talk about by season by season starts in November and ends at the end of February. However, I will frequently say I’m out by January 5th. I’m out by January 5th. And that’s because the easy money for by season is Thanksgiving to New Year’s January 5th onward. You have conflicting flows. You have by coming in.

You also have selling on the rebalancing coming in. So while the bigger money historically is made from January through February, because you have sometimes these 10% moves and the market makes a high in February. The easier money, the way I trade, is made Thanksgiving to New Year’s because there is no indigenous selling that’s going to hit the market. There’s only buying. This market can be really affected by that. Now, they put this in even more clear historical terms. In the past, this has mattered until 2025. See 2025, I’m sorry, the end of 2024. The 2025 rebalancing was a big seller of gold and no one talked about it because gold went up.

See how that works? It doesn’t matter when it doesn’t matter. When there’s bigger trends going on, it doesn’t matter. Now, am I trying to say to you, don’t worry, go out and buy it? No, that’s idiotic. What I’m saying is that it will dampen a rally if there is a rally. It will accelerate a sell off if there is a sell off. It will not end anything. It will not start anything. But it’s important. So ask yourself as a trader and then as an investor. As a trader, do you want to trade this? Well, then you should be short now.

Should be short two days ago and you should be buying the news when it comes out sometime next week, scale into your buys. If you’re a longer term trader, which is what I essentially would consider myself, you either ignore it or lighten up your longs so that you can prepare to buy the dip. If you’re an investor, drink some coffee, sit back and watch the people obsess about something that they didn’t even know about six months ago. And there’s plenty more on that. We covered Dan Golly’s opinion on it. We covered Deutsche Bank’s opinion on it.

And we even touched on Goldman Sachs, which implied implicitly says it’s just noise. They implicitly say that. And that was recorded this morning at six twenty. So forgive the noise, the background noise, if you hear a siren or two. Anyway, that’s we would say that’s listen, if you have interest in that, as well as reading the zero edge post, which breaks it down only as they can. News and analysis. Trump’s big show in Greenland. Silver’s new reality check. That is the new reality that Michael Oliver is now framing the silver move. And we discussed that in context of what happened to copper in 2006.

China’s solar silver used to be cut as prices soar. It’s got to happen. It has to happen. But when a new technology is implemented, they only care about the top line. How much electricity can I get? But when price go up enough, they care about the bottom line. So they try and cut costs less silver, more aluminum. They’re going to do that. That’s going to happen now. But once and technology is going to figure out a better way to do it with even less silver. And that’s going to be bearish for silver. No. Well, if you can do it with less silver, then you can make solar panels for everyone.

The more efficient the technology gets, the more prevalent the use of silver becomes. So instead of one person buying a house, it’s 50 people, a building, it’s 50 people buying a condo. Anyway, there you go. Data this week. The big day is tomorrow. That’s the jobs number. Today’s initial jobless claims and productivity. The growing gold fixed store. There’s the MAGA hats. We have a coffee mug. I have one that I ordered for myself to see how it works, meaning is it dishwasher safe? And the hoodie is actually pretty cool looking. I’m probably getting one of those.

So we also have a couple more announcements for the founders in terms of coin dealers that we trust. And we’re making a list of that and sharing that with people going forward. Let’s move on to the charts. OK, so let’s go to the four hour. To give you the last today’s behavior in context of the last several days. Where is that? All right. So you may recall. Let’s get rid of these moving averages. We don’t need them like Bob Ross. When we broke above here, I said that this was a poly level that if we stay above this, the market could run up to 77.

Seventy seven fifty but seventy seven. And then I said the kicker is if we get above here, ninety two ninety three is on the is on the board. Now, this happened. We got above it. We stayed above it. We retested without going below it. And we went up to seventy seven. We went up as high as, you know, eighty two and a half eighty three, which is just crazy. It’s crazy. Anyway, I was happy with the market going to. Here. Here. And then it just kept going. So but that’s that’s what happens when you’re in a bull market.

There is no resistance in a bull market. Now. I’m going to fill you in on what happened since then. I had said that if we get above here, ninety two ninety three is on the table. And I describe the situation as cap and trade. There was a big seller there. And that big seller capped the market and everyone’s trading in here. And the question is, would that big seller be up there again? And the answer is somebody’s up there still. So that selling is real. Is it a producer? Could be. Is it say someone with a lot of gamma selling it? Could be.

Is it someone like a bullion bank that’s long silver saying, you know, I’ll let you have it at eighty three. Is it someone like a bullion bank who knows rebalancing is coming and want to keep a little because they have physical to go. Yeah. There’s is it the Bank of International Settlements helping out? Could be. But the point is strip away my stories and my narratives. They’re selling there and it’s real. So once that selling reasserts itself. Remember, we have the ledge here. We have the ledge, which starts here. And goes here. And how did I describe this? I said, this is noise.

This is panic buying. And this is fundamental buying. We got above here. We ran up. We found selling. We went back down and held at seventy seven yesterday. And now we’re back below seventy seven again. We’re in the range. You should assume we’re going to test seventy two. If we get back above seventy seven and start ratcheting higher, that’s fine. But just look at this. Technically, it’s a sideways channel that was broken, threatened to create a new structure. New structure. One, two, three, four, five. There’s your new structure. But if it stays below seventy seven for any length of time, the structure will break down and the market will reassert back to this.

One, two, three, four, five. And if it goes below it, you have to ask yourself, where will it be bought? And that’s the situation we’re in. So if you’re trading this macro six months to a year position, you are looking for a level to buy. Maybe you buy some a year. Maybe you buy some at seventy two. Maybe buy some lower. Depends on how you look at things. If you are short term bullish, then you shouldn’t be doing anything. You should be looking for what your stop loss is if you’re wrong. If you’re short term bearish, well, you should have sold it yesterday.

Or you could sell it right now. And you could say we can go from seventy five to seventy two with a stop out of seventy seven. If you’re a long term bullish, you don’t care. Have some coffee. Vince, have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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