➡ China and India are seeking alternative ways to buy silver, bypassing middlemen and potentially paying a premium. This is due to the West restricting access to non-trade partners. The demand for silver is spreading and it’s becoming a leading indicator of how natural resources are being weaponized. The article also discusses market trends and advises against buying or selling silver on leverage.
➡ The market is unpredictable right now, making it risky for traders. Despite this, there’s potential for profit if risks are managed well. The value of silver is fluctuating, but it’s expected to increase to $140 in the next five years. Lastly, the year has been eventful and the team wishes everyone a Happy New Year, expressing gratitude for the support and looking forward to the next year.

There’s a story we want to talk about, but I think rather than talk about it, let’s just play the clip that Chris put out and we’ll give you also the link to the full video. Let’s roll on that. Hopefully you’ll be able to hear it all. So just going back to Friday, they either need a little bit of silver quickly or they’re really trying to make relationships with companies that can be longer term players and essentially get the get the metal directly and circumvent the middle man. One of the one of the Chinese companies was in fact a solar panel manufacturer that was that we’re talking to.

And then yesterday we were approached by an Indian firm this time. Again, similar premium they were offering in the low 80s for silver when silver was in the low to mid 70s. So probably another eight to ten dollar premium there. This morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancy and this is the Gold Fix Market Rundown. It’s Wednesday, New Year’s Eve, 752. We have two stories to cover for you on the top of the page as well as the market activity. The first one is front and center.

It’s breaking news by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics confirming that not only is China is seeking alternative means to buy silver outside their sphere of influence but so is India. The west is cutting off access to non-trade partners and silver is the canary proving it. That is the story breaking silver weaponized crisis expands. In the lower right hand side we will touch on a new report covered by, first we saw by Zero Hedge and Market Watch. We will break it down and spell it out. The question is if silver is in a bubble is asked and the answer is no by sock gen even though they won’t phrase it that way.

Before we get to the story, here’s the stories I should say. Here’s the markets. Ten year yields are down a penny, the dollar is unchanged. All for the S&P 500 is down nine. Handles the NASDAQ is down 35.36, the VIX is 14.71 up a little bit. Gold is down $22.76 at 43.15. Spot silver, 71.84 down $4.36 that’s 5.73. The spread between London and Shanghai remains bid but below its highs. Copper is $5.59 down $0.67. WTI is up $0.11 at $58.18. Natural gas is $3.90, excuse me, down $0.21. Bitcoin stable. It really is gold 2.0.

It’s not going anywhere right now, which is I guess not a bad thing. 88 spot $6.61, Ethereum $29.81. Palladium also hit down one and a half percent at $24, down $25, $15.75. Platinum $2,005 down $177. That’s 8%. Gold silver is up, which is what you would expect at 60, up five and a half percent. And grains are down. Thank God no one’s weaponized food yet, to be honest with you. A quick bit of business, please buy a hat and support independent media. There is a gold hat and a silver hat, MAUGA and MAGGA.

Those of you who are worried about family members and friends saying, are you a Trump supporter? You can say, I’m a chemist, grow up. Thank you very much. Please support. There’s a story we want to talk about, but I think rather than talk about it, let’s just play the clip that Chris put out and we’ll give you also the link to the full video. Let’s roll on that. Hopefully you’ll be able to hear it all. So just going back to Friday, the other need a little bit of silver quickly, or they’re really trying to make relationships with companies that can be longer term players and essentially get the metal directly and circumvent the middleman.

One of the Chinese companies was in fact a solar panel manufacturer that was that we’re talking to. And then yesterday we were approached by an Indian firm this time. Again, similar premium. They were offering in the low eighties for silver when silver was in the low to mid seventies. So probably another eight to $10 premium there. Hopefully that came across on your screen. The brand new news is as Chris just interviewed, Dan Stein, the same, that same minor Kuru was contacted yesterday by an Indian national looking for silver. And of course he doesn’t have any, but the point is the silver demand is basically spreading because we’re restricting flows.

Now, this is extremely important. Natural resources in the Western hemisphere have been weaponized similar to rare earths by the bricks and silver is the leading indicator. We’re going to include the link to that full interview on YouTube and kudos to Chris for getting it. We’ll talk more about that a little bit. The second story, according to soft gen models may initially suggest bubble like behavior, but those signals require careful interpretation and should not be treated as forecasting oracles. Now we sent that post out today and we’re going to tell you right here why we really liked that analysis.

The empirical data is corroborating the intuitive feel. We are in a regime change models that have historically linear models that have historically measured silver as being overbought and oversold are also very similar to the same model that’ll say this is in a bubble. And all they really do is they mark extremes. So this is an extreme that isn’t extreme. And if you’re in, for example, a neo Keynesian extreme, or you’re in a global market where the prices will correct a lot more quickly, you’re going to get an overbought signal. That’s right.

Or a bubble signal. That’s right. And their previous bubble signals in the chart they give were right. But you could see as you go forward in time, the bubble drops a lot less, drops a lot less. And so now they’re pretty much saying it. They’re saying that the model says it’s a bubble, but they know it’s not. They understand it’s a regime change. It’s an excellent breakdown and of the logic behind what makes a bubble versus not makes a bubble. If you’re looking for a bottom line analysis, pull up a log chart.

Silver’s $75, $80, $70, $80, whatever you want to call it today. And then pull up a log chart, not a log chart, pull up a notional versus real value and inflation adjusted terms. Silver’s about $140 to be at its peak as it was in 1980. So that’s that story. You can read more about that. News and analysis, precious metals list. It’s the silver fix, right? Okay. So there’s the stories. You can see that. The chat. Happy New Year to everyone in the chat. Thank you so much for building the community that we have.

And hopefully everyone has benefited from the community that you’ve created. And I’ll be seeing more of you next year, hopefully. All right. Data on deck. Jobless claims. New Year’s Day is tomorrow and there’s nothing scheduled for Friday. I’d like to give a special congratulations to Chris Marcus. It shows that if you keep your head down and your content high quality, then industry professionals will trust you to handle sensitive information properly. And it looks like as the world seeks more reliable information, Chris is now in a position to give it to them.

So congrats and Happy New Year, Chris. Thank you very much for everything you’ve done for me as well this year. Let’s move to a market action, right? Here’s where it gets kind of sketchy. I have some notes here. Let me see what I have. All right. All right. Couple, I have bullet points that I just want to share with you. This is reminding me of the London pool scheme fighting its battles over gold in the 70s. Now we didn’t have charts like this back then, but this is what happens when a market is being battled over.

You have many players. It’s like a battle royal and the whippy volatility shakes all the smaller players out. And in the end, there will be two men standing or two players standing. Let’s put it that way. I’m not so sure there are men. That’s where the whack-a-mole comes in. If you look at this chart here, very high signal to low noise. This is where your physical demand is buying. And this is where your panicked physical demand is buying. Inverting it, this is where the US doesn’t want to sell. And this is where the US is selling.

Or let me just try and put a little bit differently. The US will sell at 80. Whoever has metal will sell it at 80 or higher. When they get it, whoever needs the metal will buy it at 70. And everything in between here and here is panic. It’s not to say they’re wrong, but it’s panic. Everything between here and here, 76 down to 71, that’s paper. That’s my opinion. That’s paper. What’s another way to put this? Well, let’s start with a little free advice that’s not advice. Do not buy or sell silver on leverage.

Do not spend money you need. Do not assume it will go higher in the next six months. Assume it will be higher in the next two years if you can wait that long, but not on your schedule. These are big boys playing now. And if you must trade it, cut your size down to one-tenth of normal, wind your stops, and know your bar risks. The market’s very high signal right now. So if you’re an intraday, if I were a younger man, I would be pulling out my systems and trading 15-minute and hour charts.

Because there’s probably a lot of money to be made if you keep your risk tight. However, if you’re looking at this saying, I think it’s going to go up tomorrow, you’re out of your mind. If you think it’s going to go down tomorrow, you’re out of your mind. You just take your risk if you want. If you’re trying to figure, for years, the metals people have talking about things like value versus price. The price is this, but the value is that. Well, this is an example of that. The market is being chewed up right now, and all the under-capitalized people and under silver-capitalized people are getting their asses handed to them.

And so as the market’s getting chewed up, these people are falling by the wayside. And I go back with the value versus price. The value of silver, to use a boating analogy, is an anchor. That’s the value of silver. Where is the anchor? Well, for years, the anchor was perceived to be within X amount of the price. Well, the anchor has been dragged higher for slowly. And the tether on the rope is now pulling it, and the volatility is yanking it higher. So we don’t know where the anchor is going to be, but we know that the tide is really messing with the rope, attaching it right now.

I personally think, I believe, and I understand that everything that’s working out will eventually, this market has to be higher, $140. That’s my level. And it’s going to happen in the next five years. If it happens in the next six months, so be it, then I’ll sell. But the value of silver is moving. So here’s the water, and here’s the anchor, and here’s the boat going back and forth, right? Well, the anchor is moving. The earth is moving under the boat’s feet. And the rope is pulling and starts. And it’s going to overshoot, and it’s going to undershoot.

Is value 74? Is value 84? Is value 140? Well, I think value is going to 140. Do I think it’s going to happen tomorrow? No, right? Do I think it could drop to $50? Yeah. Robert Sin, CEO technician, I had a nice little conversation the other day. One of the things that traders will ask themselves when I’m trying to figure out what their own bias is, they’ll say, what’s the next $20 going to happen? Or usually you say, what’s the next $0.20 going to happen in silver? And you’re like, oh, next $0.20 is going to be higher, but the next dollar could be lower.

So you’re saying to yourself, the market could be at its highs right now. But he made a comment. He said, the next $20 could be higher or lower. I have no idea. And he’s right. The anchor is moving. The question is, who will it end in tears for? And it will end in tears for everyone who’s not owning silver on the leveraged. Finally, we’d like to say Happy New Year to all of our viewers and subscribers. It has been an eventful year and we’re grateful to everyone who has made it possible.

We hope to see more of you and do the same next year. Have a good one. That’s it. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.