UBS says that more gold would go to Asia. Because if they can’t sell it to the U.S. without paying a tire, they’re going to sell it to someone who will accept it. And that’s the bottom line. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. It’s 8.13. CPI day. We’re going to keep it tight today. There’s the front page. Special founder of CPI Prep. Premium CPI on the right.

And we’re going to talk about the post in the lower left-hand corner. UBS put out a piece the morning of the tariffs being rescinded. So Friday morning. And they said, well, basically, they said new U.S. tariffs on imported bars to the U.S. That’s not revolutionary for you to hear. Some people have already reduced their shipments seeking clarity on the ruling. UBS expected tighter domestic supply would lift New York futures premiums. Again, we know that, right? But while not a long-term price driver, tariffs may amplify bullish sentiment if physical tightness persists. Also, obvious but needs to be said.

We trust these near real-time pieces from the CIO office as consistently having two messages. One, the facts and risks as they see them. Two, the meta message that if they are or are not raising prices as a result of that. Now, there’s some insights from that, and we share them in the post. But we also will share a couple of them with you here. First of all, it’s a nice little educational paragraph in there. It describes the mechanics of the LBMA, COMEX, EFP, as we’ve described it here in the past, but a little bit more eloquently, and delivery smelting and what have you.

We’ve also added our own personal interpretation as they politely intimate. That full analysis in the premium post, more gold will go to Asia if tariffs. Now, two reasons you don’t tariff gold. One, it’s money. And two, it’s money. And I’m not trying to be funny. It’s money that actually is used as money. It’s money because we feel it’s money, and it is money. It’s also used as money, okay? It would seize Western trade if not permitted to flow. London, if they can’t hedge their gold or they get… London needs gold, uses its gold as collateral for funding.

So I have a million dollars in gold. I need to free that million dollars up so I can loan it to someone in my banking side. Make a mortgage loan for you. So what do I do with that money, with that gold? I hedge it in the COMEX, I take the million dollars plus the 3%, 4%, whatever you get on carry, and then I use that at the banking level to lend out. And this is something that Zero Hedge had brought up. It’s a funding source for London. It would cascade into Europe. Every bank that operates in Boyin would freeze.

I wouldn’t do business with them anymore. I don’t know if they’ll be calling mortgages. It would be a problem. Anyway, that’s how important gold is globally. Now, another side point I want to make, I’ve noticed, and I don’t want to give him credit where credit’s not due, but I have noticed that Trump has a habit of throwing stuff out there and then changing it. Now, yeah, that’s taco. I understand the taco concept, but I also want to say this. Whether he’s doing it intentionally or not, it’s a gift because when he does it, you get to see where everyone’s lopsided, right? Copper tariffs, copper went up.

Gold tariffs. London seized up. It’s almost like he’s testing the water to see what would happen. And here’s what would happen. Scrolling up a little bit. I didn’t leave it there. All right. UBS says that more gold would go to Asia because if they can’t sell it to the US without paying a tire, if they’re going to sell it to someone who will accept it. And that’s the bottom line. So when Trump announced tariffs or had them announced whether intentionally or not to test the waters to show who the weekend was, he showed that we will get the gold if we keep doing that.

And he actually showed how it would accelerate. Anyway, let’s go through the markets quickly here. Gold is up a buck and change. Okay, so disaster yesterday. I’m using the word disaster. I guess I should be careful the words I use. Not a disaster. We knew this would happen. I knew this would happen. And as I mentioned, I had a target above here. Well, above 3390. I had to get out yesterday. I took a profit on the futures and I took a loss on the GL day. So that’s the way it goes. Trade’s over. We’re still in the middle of a range.

There’s a 50-day moving average. Note, it really hasn’t moved in terms of direction. And we’re holding. Again, this is the area that I was concerned about. Below 3347 was my level. So at this point, I am biased bearish, but I have no opinion directionally. I have no position directionally. And today is CPI. This is the stats. So it’s adflationary fear played out, as I said, right? Okay. And it got a little help from the tariff that now if the inflation comes in hot, look to see what gold does. It could rally because if the inflation comes in hot, then the inflation is hot and the Fed can ease.

If the inflation comes in cool, you can look for gold to rally because if the inflation comes in cool. The Fed can ease. So it’s fear will drive the market if inflation comes in hot, out of equities in the gold. Recession, stagflation. Hope will drive gold higher if the inflation is low. Now, I’m not so sure. Now, it could go the other way. Gold could react negatively in both situations. And that would be very bad. So keep your eye on that. I’m Vince. Have a great day. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here.

Hope you enjoyed the show. We’ll see you again tomorrow. Thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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