Why Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Explode (missing signal)

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Summary

➡ Bitcoin Treasury companies, which are publicly traded firms that hold Bitcoin, are currently the fastest growing stocks. Their value doesn’t just depend on the amount of Bitcoin they hold, but also on a hidden factor called the “fit score”. This score measures how closely a company’s stock price is linked to the price of Bitcoin. Understanding this can help investors identify potential high performers in this market.
➡ A medical company is buying a lot of Bitcoin, making it seem like a good investment. However, the market sees it as a healthcare company with Bitcoin, not a Bitcoin company. This means its stock isn’t increasing like other Bitcoin companies. To understand if a company is a good investment, you need to look at its fit score, which shows how much the stock price is linked to Bitcoin price. If the fit score is below 50%, you won’t get Bitcoin-like returns.
➡ The Blockchain Group, a company whose stock has risen over 2000% in the past six months, is creating ways for retirement funds and other large pools of money to invest in Bitcoin. Despite fears of a market crash, the company believes this is just the beginning, as only a small fraction of the available $300 trillion has been invested so far. They suggest finding successful investments by filtering companies with a high model fit score, sorting by Bitcoin yield, and checking the growth rate. They are tracking over 50 companies and adding more each week, indicating a large potential for growth in the future.

Transcript

This is exactly why some Bitcoin Treasury stocks explode 1000% and others barely move. Now, you probably already know that Bitcoin Treasury companies are the fastest moving stocks in the market today. Now, they’re the new crypto plays and they have their own set of metrics to find and value them. New terms like BPS, MNAV, BTC yield and more. And those are all super important if you want to find the big winners of this cycle. But there’s one hidden indicator that no one’s talking about. That’s the glue. It’s the catalyst that ties all these together.

It’s the reason why some Bitcoin companies with huge Bitcoin stockpiles don’t even move, while small companies with barely any Bitcoin are exploding higher. And if you miss this one signal, you’re going to be stuck holding companies that look cheap but never move. But if you get it right, you could catch the next 10X before institutional money even knows it exists. My name is Mark Moss. I’m a partner at a leading Bitcoin venture fund, investing in these exact companies. I’m an officer of my own publicly traded Bitcoin Treasury company and these are the same tools that we use to spot winners early and you can too.

So let’s go. All right, we’re going to jump right into it because we are going to talk about the most exciting thing happening in the entire market today. We’re talking about not just Bitcoin, which is already exciting. We’re talking about the Bitcoin Treasury explosion. Now, the biggest gains in the market. Now, these treasury companies, like I said, they’re the most explosive, meaning they’re going up the fastest, right? This is where you want to be making the money. And most people don’t understand what’s even happening. So I’m going to break that down for you and I’m going to tell you the one missing link that everybody’s missing.

But basically, I’m calling this the new cryptocurrency. Why is that? Well, Bitcoin came out of the scene. It’s been the best performing asset in history. But some people wanted even more yield. They wanted the next Bitcoin. So they went to cryptocurrency to try to get even more gains. And you bought all kinds of junk, Cardano and XRP and Ethereum and who knows whatever, hoping to make more money for it to go up faster than what Bitcoin is doing. But now, of course, those have been dead for a while and all of the money has gone into now Bitcoin public plays.

These are publicly traded companies with real founders, SEC registrations, publicly traded on exchanges, New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, but they’re moving just like crypto. I’m going to show you how fast some of these are moving. Now, these are the fastest moving stocks today. So let’s just take a look. If we compare it to the S&P 500, the main index, we can see over the last three months going, giving it the benefit of the doubt here, going to the absolute lowest point when Trump’s tariffs fears dropped the market. In the last three months, the S&P 500 is up 20%.

If you put 100 bucks in, you made 20 bucks. Not bad for the S&P 500. It’s actually pretty amazing when it’s done, you know, seven or 8% per year for the last 30 years. Okay. Bitcoin, on the other hand, obviously goes up much faster. In the last 18 months, it’s gone up 300%. So that means if you put $100 in, you made three times that way better than the 20% that this S&P 500 is. However, these new treasury companies aren’t just following the S&P 500. They’re not just following Bitcoin. They’re trading multiple times that.

Let me show you what I’m talking about. Here’s MicroStrategy. I’m sure you’ve heard about MicroStrategy at this point. Michael Saylor’s company, in the same 18 month period that Bitcoin went up 300% or three times, MicroStrategy went up 1200% or 12 times. It’s the S&P 500, 7, 8% or 1200%. Which would you rather have? I think the answer is pretty obvious, but it’s not just MicroStrategy anymore. Here’s the new one on the scene. I’ve talked about this one extensively, Metoplanet. In just the last three months alone, when the S&P 500 did 20%, it did 551%.

In just the three months, that’s five times on your money in three months. Here’s another one, a little Canadian company, a fast mover, Matador. In the same three month period, it’s up 400% or four times on your money in the same time period. Here’s a little lesser known company. This is a little UK-based company called Smarter Web Company, a little web development company. It’s up 5,000% in only one month, 5,000%. This is blowing away what crypto used to do, and now it’s all happening in the Bitcoin treasury space. It’s levered exposure and you get the liquidity of the publicly traded markets.

You get the options that you can do to hedge your bets and get even more leverage in the publicly traded markets. And you can go into retirement accounts because retirement accounts typically couldn’t buy cryptocurrency, but they can buy equities. This is why this is completely game changing. All right, let’s talk about the missing piece. Now, there’s a whole new set of metrics. If you’re looking at this, like you would look at a traditional stock. If you’re looking for PE ratios, or you’re looking at EBITDA or DCF, if you’re trying to look at it like a traditional stock, you’re going to be completely missing the mark, right? Cryptocurrency had its own set of metrics, and this is an entirely new set, has its own set of metrics.

So instead of price to earnings ratio or earnings before interest in taxes, right? Now we have something called BPS. That’s Bitcoin per share. This is per share of stock. How much Bitcoin do I get? We have multiples of net asset value or what’s called MNAV. And that means for the valuation of the tire company, how much Bitcoin do they have? We get Bitcoin yield. This is how fast is the company growing its Bitcoin stack. We get days to cover MNAV. So this is an MNAV, meaning the multiple of the net asset valuation.

Why are some companies two times and some companies are six or eight times like a PE ratio will comes down to how many days or months will it take to cover that MNAV. So you need to understand there’s all these new sets of metrics. If you don’t want to understand what all these are, I have an entire video and a downloadable guide that you can have. We’ll link to it in the description down below if you want to go check that out. Okay, but there’s a hidden metric. Why do some companies with a high MNAV that look expensive and some companies with low MNAV that look cheap, why do some move and some don’t? Well, there’s a piece that’s missing.

There’s a hidden metric that I’m going to break down for you right now. This answers all the questions that you might have, and it’s going to help you determine which of these companies are expensive or cheap. Okay, the missing link is something I’m calling a fit score. Now the fit score is what determines how well a company and the company stock fits to the Bitcoin price, right? These are Bitcoin treasury strategy companies. So they’re trying to have leverage over Bitcoin, but not every company is a good fit for that. What am I talking about? We want to look at the model fit is the R2 correlation or how correlated is the stock’s price to Bitcoin.

It’s the stock price versus the Bitcoin value per share. All right, so what we want is we want to see that the stock is moving with Bitcoin, but at a leveraged ratio. So if not every company does this, why? Well, because they’re missing this and it determines how pure the play is to Bitcoin. So let me break this down for you. We have some companies that are Bitcoin treasury companies, meaning Tesla. Tesla bought some Bitcoin and put on the books. Okay, so they own Bitcoin, but they’re not a Bitcoin treasury strategy company.

Then we have companies like GameStop and GameStop is like a failing business that’s now deciding to put Bitcoin in the balance sheet. Okay, but it’s not a Bitcoin company. Then we have companies like MicroStrategy, like MetaPlanet, like SmarterWeb, like I showed you before, like Matador that are pure plays, meaning the entire business is being built around the strategy of acquiring more Bitcoin. Now, what am I talking about here? Well, we have the R2 correlation between the stock price, the price of the company, divided by the Bitcoin on the balance sheet versus the business.

So we have a company like, like I said, like Tesla, but we have to look at the business, not the Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Let me show you what I’m talking about. To give you a good example, we’re going to use a company that’s pretty hot in the industry right now. Similar scientific. Now, similar scientific is grown super fast up on the leaderboard. They have more Bitcoin than most companies that are out there today. They’re acquiring Bitcoin at a very rapid rate. However, similar scientific is a scientific company. They’re in the medical space.

So it’s a medical company that’s aggressively adding to their Bitcoin position. Now, when you look at it to the MNAV, you look at it and go, well, the market valuation divided by the Bitcoin they have looks relatively cheap. It’s like one times where a company like MetaPlanet is trading at like a six times. So all by similar, because they own a ton of Bitcoin and they’re adding to it very aggressively and it’s super cheap. But then you wonder why the stock isn’t moving up, why the MNAV isn’t moving up like MetaPlanet. And the reason why is because of the fit score.

All right. Micro strategy has like a MNAV of 2.5 versus their one. But the problem is that similar only has about a 45% fit score. Meaning the company values it only about half of their Bitcoin business. The market doesn’t see it as a Bitcoin company. Instead, they see it as a healthcare company with Bitcoin on the balance sheet. All right. That’s the thing. So even though it looks cheap, like it’s a cheap Bitcoin treasury company play when you compare just the MNAVs, which is what most people are looking at, without understanding how well the fit is, how much the stock correlates to Bitcoin price, you miss out.

So the Bitcoin per share metrics, they look solid, the company looks undervalued, but again, you’re missing out on that. So warning, you can have the lowest MNAV in the world, but if your model fit is below 50%, you’re not getting Bitcoin like price returns. All right. So let me kind of break this down for you. You can go onto a website called Bitcoin treasuries.net. And this lists all the publicly traded companies or most of them that have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Now this is sorted by which public companies have the most Bitcoin.

So at the very top right here, micro strategy has 592,000. It’s crazy. Almost 600,000 Bitcoin they hold on their balance sheet. The next one below that is only 50,000. It’s quite a big difference. Down here we have MetaPlanet. They have 11,000. Okay. And then down here at the bottom, we have our sample model company, similar scientific with 4,400. Okay. That’s how many Bitcoin they have on their balance sheet. Now we can look at their Bitcoin per share, but what we’re looking at right now is the MNAV. Remember the market cap divided by the amount of Bitcoin they have.

So we have micro strategy with a 1.7. We have MetaPlanet with a 5.4 and then we have similar scientific at a 1.1. That’s the multiple. So you might think, well, similar scientific seems very cheap. It must be undervalued. Maybe I should buy that one because the MNAV is so low. Whereas MetaPlanet right here, 5.4 is trading way higher, even though similar has a lot of Bitcoin. They’re adding a lot of Bitcoin. Now, if we go onto similar’s own website right here, we can pull even more data. And what we can see here is they show the amount of Bitcoin they have.

They show how their entire holdings, but what we’re looking at right here is their yield to date, year to date yield. This is how fast they’re adding more Bitcoin. So we can see they’re adding Bitcoin pretty rapidly, 26%. But again, why is it so low? And the reason why is because again, it’s not a pure play. So if we compare micro strategy right here, we can see the orange line is the Bitcoin value per share growing pretty rapidly. And then here is the stock price, the micro strategy stock price. We can see it has about 300 days to cover that determines how fast they’re adding Bitcoin to cover that price.

Now, if we take a company like similar, again, our example company, we can see where this really comes into play. Now here we have the similar price. And look, it’s basically stuck. It’s not moving anywhere. And this means that the Bitcoin value per share, even though it’s growing, the stock isn’t moving. And the reason why is because the market doesn’t know how to value it. Instead of looking at it as a pure play Bitcoin company, it understands it as a medical company that’s potentially facing like a DOJ investigation. And so they’re neither a medical company, nor a Bitcoin company.

All right, so how do we calculate this on our own? How do we go find this? Okay, what we do is we want to calculate this by ourselves. Because again, this is the glue, this is the caddis that holds all these together. So there’s three pieces of data that you’re gonna need. Number one, you need to know what the stock price is. That’s pretty simple, go into Yahoo Finance, or whatever, find out what the stock price is. Number two, when you know what the Bitcoin price is, again, pretty simple, going to coinmarkerkek.com, going to Coinbase, whatever, and find the Bitcoin price.

Then we want to find the Bitcoin per share. Now again, you can go to similar scientific or any company website, and you can find this information, you can go to Bitcoin Treasuries, and you can pull that data, you can find the quarterly reports, their investor relations page, and you can get that data. Then what you do is you take the share price, which is equal to the MNAV times the Bitcoin price times the Bitcoin per share. All right, so here’s how we do it. Here’s a real example. We take the last 200 days of data, we’ve gathered the data.

We take the Bitcoin value per share, let’s say it’s ranging between 85 to 142. We take the stock price ranging from 95 to 165, and then we use a dot plot, and we map this out to find out what this score is, this model fit score. Here’s using micro strategy as an example, and what we can see here, we have the Bitcoin value. This is diluted per share here, and then over here we have the micro strategy price, and we can start to see where the fit score is. We can see how correlated the price is to Bitcoin.

All right, now then what we want to do is we want to sort of take this measurement and compare it against all the other companies. So we have micro strategy, 98%. We have MetaPlanet down here at about 85%, and then we have similar all the way down here at 45%. All right, so these are going to be more pure plays moving with Bitcoin, and these are ones where the market doesn’t really know how to price them in. All right, now that we have that data, we want to look at all the companies that we’re comparing, all these Bitcoin treasury companies, and we want to filter them by model fit.

I say, I put anything less than 40, I’m really saying probably anything less than 50, we want to just sort of filter right out. Okay, eliminate those because they don’t move with Bitcoin’s price specifically, they’re still moving based off the company. Number two, then we want to sort by the Bitcoin yield and the days to cover. So most people are only looking at MNAB and days to cover, but I want to sort first for fit. Then we take those and we sort them by Bitcoin yield to days to cover, and then we can start to understand what a fair market price is.

So let me show you what we’re looking at here. So once we understand this market fit, we can start to sort them again, like I said, anything above 80 is going to be a pure play. Anything in the 40 to 80 range could be good, we might want to look at it. Anything below 40 or 50, we’re getting rid of those all together. Then once we have that information, we can take the companies that we’re evaluating, and we can start to understand is it a pure play, emerging or a mixed play, we can look at the stock price and we can start to determine what a fair market value for these companies are.

Without this, you’re left guessing, and you’re just probably never going to make the money that you want to make. All right, so how do we find the gems now that we have this data? Well, a couple things. Number one, we understand that institutional investors that are the main buyers of these, they can’t buy small cap stocks, right? They can’t buy small caps because of compliance requirements, they typically need at least a two to $5 billion market cap, otherwise they’re going to move the market too much. All right, they need that for the liquidity they need.

And this gives retail investors you and I first access, institutions can’t get in, you and I can get in first. So I like small cap companies that have the model fit. So this is typically micro cap less than 1 billion. Number two, I want to make sure the fit, the model fit is more than 80%. Number three, I want to see that the Bitcoin yield is at least 1%. And then if it has that, then I believe we have at least a 10x return profile in front of us. All right, we can take a look at example right here.

This is alt B G or this is the blockchain group. Right now we can see the initial market cap was 200 million, a 92% model fit score, a Bitcoin yield of 1.7 higher than 1%. And their stock went up over 2000% in the last six months. This is what we’re talking about 10x moves when we can find these that fit. Okay. There’s a massive tidal wave coming. Most people are looking at this market thinking it’s too bubbled up, it’s probably going to crash. Any moment now, I would say that it’s just getting started.

Why is that? Well, because this is the right strategy for this time. These companies aren’t just taking advantage of Bitcoin. They’re creating a way for stuck pools of liquidity and pension funds and 401ks in retirement accounts that aren’t able to buy Bitcoin. They’re creating ways for those stuck pools of liquidity to now get into the space through equities, through creating financial products for trapped pools of liquidity. All right. And how much is there? Well, there’s over $300 trillion. How much have we pulled out so far? About 40 billion. That’s a blip. It’s not even a rounding error in that bucket.

So again, this is just starting to come on board. You’re at the very beginning of this. And here’s what we’re going to do. Number one, filter by the model fit. Remember, at least 50% or more, I like 80%. Number two, sort by the Bitcoin yield. Number three, check how long or how fast are growing that yield at least 1%. And then we can start to find what a six-month moving average or fair price will be. All right. I’m tracking over 50 different companies. They’re adding more. They’re adding dozens per week.

Follow this framework. You’ll find the gems. If you want to know more about how big this opportunity is going and how far Bitcoin is going by 2030, 2040, and 2050, you probably want to watch this video right here. All right. That’s what I got to your success. I’m out. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.

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