➡ This article discusses the potential for a continued rise in platinum prices, despite some banks suggesting it’s only temporary. The author believes that high gold prices are driving Chinese demand towards platinum and silver, seeing value in their relative prices. The article also mentions a trade initiated in platinum and plans to take off two-thirds of it due to the rally in platinum. Lastly, it highlights several articles written about platinum’s potential and the author’s belief that the market will be bought on dips if the 50-week moving average stays up.
➡ Portuna Mining, led by CEO Jorge Ginoza, has seen a significant increase in their free cash flow due to successful drilling and high gold prices. They reported a record free cash flow of $96 million in Q4 2024, which further increased to $111 million in Q1 2025. This resulted in an increase in their free cash flow margin from 31% to 38%. The company appreciates the support from viewers and looks forward to sharing more updates in the future.

In yesterday’s morning premium post, gold and silver, the outlook for 2025, that’s the one with the dragon on it, we laid out why the platinum rally would likely continue. One factor not properly processed by banks calling for it to be only temporary, in our opinion, was China demand. We continually hear of the high price of platinum and silver being detrimental to further Chinese demand, but we believe that is wrong. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone, I’m Vince Lancey and this is the market rundown, the gold fix market rundown. We’re running a little late today, it’s $8.41, so we’re going to skip the markets. How about this? The dollar is weaker, metals are stronger, and oil couldn’t give a damn. Stocks are up a little bit. Okay, let’s get right to it. There’s the front page, there’s the homepage, we just sent the post down on the top right-hand corner. We’re going to be discussing that post, as well as platinum, as it was a big part of yesterday’s conversation with subscribers.

We initiated a trade and we’re going to be taking some of it off, so we’ll be probably a little clipped in our conversation today. All right, here we go. Starting with Howard Marks. Here is an exclusive breakdown of basic economic concepts that may seem obvious to most gold fix readers, but since financial wisdom is cyclical, sadly, basic economic laws must be repeated from time to time. In a private letter to his fund investors this month, Howard Marks delivered a comprehensive critique of interventionist economic policy, emphasizing that efforts to override fundamental economic laws, such as supply and demand, incentives, and market pricing tend to produce more harm than good.

Through examples ranging from rent control, he goes through that, the fire insurance in California and how that failed, and tariffs and fiscal responsibility, which is where we are right now, Marks argues that markets, while imperfect, yield more optimal societal outcomes than government-mandated distortions. That story continues in the premium post, Howard Marks, The Logic of Free Trade. Platinum’s turn. All right, we’re going to talk about platinum now. I’m going to start with a clip from yesterday’s market rundown. Hopefully, you’ll be able to hear it. If you’re playing this game, you’re long now. I’m not long now. If you’re playing the game more cautiously, you’re a buyer above 1327, and you’re a seller below 1297.

That’s it. Above 1327, 1390 should not be a problem. There you have it. Hopefully, you heard that. In yesterday’s morning premium post, gold and silver, the outlook for 2025, that’s the one with the dragon on it, we laid out why the platinum rally would likely continue. Quick side note, if you look at the graphic that we threw in there with the dragon, it’s gold, silver, and platinum. Okay, this was not just about gold and silver. One factor not properly processed by banks calling for it to be only temporary, in our opinion, was China demand. We continually hear of the high price of platinum and silver being detrimental to further Chinese demand, but we believe that is wrong.

Continuing from that analysis, the price of platinum and silver are not high. We believe the high price of gold is driving Chinese demand into the white metals, seeing value in their relative price. We’ve made the case that gold is the king metal, and it’s going to rise all the metals higher, and that’s one of the goals that China has in the longer run. People see how far gold has moved, and they are now looking at the whole commodity complex to follow the pace set by gold. Not you, oil, not today anyway. Who are we to argue with them? Certainly, the banks are not long silver.

We know this for sure, and many others have also identified it. Chris Marcus has been on a rampage, noting that he’s been right. Most banks were short platinum before the face ripping rally that just happened. Continuing from that analysis, you can read the attached. Moving on to what happened next yesterday. We put on a trade yesterday. Trading-wise, we put on a position. You can read the words there. We got long platinum with the spot market trading, 1338, as a reference point. We’re taking one, we’re risking one, I should say, to make two and a half in this idea.

The market certainly seems overbought, but didn’t gold seem overbought a year ago? When these sort of things started happening, the banks at first sometimes during denial. Anyway, the two positions we have on currently are long silver at approximately 36 spot and long platinum at the equivalent of 1338 spot. Because of the rally in platinum today, assuming that it holds, it’s holding, we will be taking off two-thirds of this trade today. If you want to know more about the platinum situation, our focused coverage on platinum started in March, advising readers to keep an eye out on the forgotten metal.

In June alone, Golfix wrote six pieces extolling the virtues of platinum. Here are the ones to read if you seek to get caught up on this delayed but increasingly strong move. In March, we were breaking down the Hartnett Report and we saw something in silver and platinum that was far more interesting and so we let readers know. In March, platinum, forgotten but not gone, was the June 10th rally analysis that made us say it’s not over yet. June 15th, platinum Goldman asked if the rally is structural or temporary. They asked. Their answer was they believe it was temporary.

Well, we believed and said back then we think it is structural. Again, it probably is temporary, but we don’t think it’s going to get back to 1300 anytime soon. And if it goes to 1300, you don’t want to buy that dip. We think it’ll probably go below that. Other related posts, gold and silver outlook for the rest of 2025, we mentioned that. And Powell will keep waiting to cut. That’s an analysis of based on Powell’s data biases. He’s going to ignore cooling inflation and focus on interest rates, not interest rates, unemployment to make his decision going further.

Why? Well, because he cut too soon and he’s got to wait. He cut before the election. Okay, data on deck. Friday is the data we care about. That’s PCE, although I’m not so sure the markets will care about it as much. We’ll go through the charts very, very quickly. All right. There’s this is the one month platinum chart that you can see we’re butting right up against. We’re in this range. So if you’re looking to be out of longs, well below 1333, which is the way things are looking now, the break even level for the 1300 straddle longs is where you want to get nervous.

So back up under 1333, you want to be flat and under 1300, you want to be short. But right now, between say 1333, give or take, right? And 1528, it’s on. Okay, I wouldn’t expect any big selling. If we stay in here for the rest of the week, I wouldn’t expect any big selling until we get to 1525 or so. And, you know, it’s really not that hard to get there. When you think about it, and then above that, it’s just, you know, I have no idea, I got to be honest, we haven’t looked at it in a long time.

Here’s a weekly chart, the market here mentioned a couple moving averages that we want to draw to your attention. If you look at these are weekly moving averages, 50, 100, 200, the 50 week moving average has crossed over everything now. We believe this is significant. Because, well, generally speaking, when the moving average is kind of cluster up and go know where you get a lot of noise, well, the 50 week moving average has decidedly turned up. And the 100 has turned up and the 200 is kind of flat and kind of going up a little bit.

I would expect if the market dips and the slope of the 50 week moving average stays up, doesn’t turn down or doesn’t lessen its degree of slowness, well, then this market is going to be bought on dips. I’m not sure. And as I said, I’m taking off two thirds of my own trade today. So have a great day. Well, thank you for joining us here on the Arcadia channel for another episode of Morning Markets and Metals with our dear beloved Vince Lancy. Sure hope you’re doing well out there. Before we wrap up, I did just want to thank Portuna Mining, who has had quite a year and also kindly brought us this morning’s show with Vince.

And last few weeks alone, they had an announcement that they completed a strategic investment in a Walle Resources, which is increasing their footprint in Cote d’Ivoire, allowing them to pick up assets in certain sections of the still somewhat depressed mining equities markets. Of course, they also continue drilling at their d’Amosu project that they got from Chester Resources, which is in Senegal. And where back in a month ago, they got 8.6 grams per ton over 13.6 meters and continue to have drilling success there. And of course, especially with the combination of their success at their Tsuguela mine, as well as the elevated gold price, which has stayed in that range.

Fortunately, that’s really filtered into their free cash flow. And here’s a quick word from the CEO of Portuna Mining, Jorge Ginoza. We went from record to record. In Q4 2024, we had record free cash flow of $96 million. And into Q1 of 2025, we reported as pointed in the news release, record again in free cash flow of $111 million. That means we’re we increased our free cash flow margin quarter over quarter from 31% to 38%. That’s margin of free cash flow over sales. Well, thank you to Jorge. Thank you to Portuna for their involvement in the show.

And most of all, thank you at home for watching. Sure appreciate you being here. And with that said, we will wrap up for today. But we’ll look forward to closing out the week with you tomorrow. [tr:trw].

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