➡ The video creator discusses the current economic situation, highlighting that despite negative media reports, data shows a strong market with increased consumer spending and savings. He also points out a significant rise in business investments, particularly in information processing equipment, indicating a positive outlook for future economic growth. The creator believes this is the start of a new industrial revolution, driven by advancements in AI and data processing, and predicts a period of prosperity as the US becomes a global hub for these industries.

➡ Despite media-induced panic about economic downturns, data shows that risk assets like Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have remained resilient. Global liquidity, which drives asset prices, is at an all-time high and is expected to peak in mid-2026, benefiting risk assets and cryptocurrencies. Wages are rising faster than inflation, indicating a healthier economy, and consumer credit is expected to increase due to rising liquidity. The media often uses fear as a tool for clicks and political leverage, but understanding the data can help avoid falling into this trap and missing out on significant investment opportunities.

The headlines say the economy is crashing again, but what does the actual data say? Because when I dug into the numbers myself, what I found was shocking. Now it’s nothing like the headlines would have you believe. In fact, there’s one stat that would flip the entire narrative upside down. And if you’re just doom scrolling headlines, you’re sitting there in fear, then you’re going to miss the biggest wealth window of this decade. Real quick, I’m Mark Moss. I’ve spent over 20 years tracking boom and bust cycles, helping investors cut through the noise to find the signal, and what I’m about to show you might completely change how you see the economy.

So let’s go. All right, so we’re going to jump right into it, and we’re going to show you, well, first, the doomer headlines. That gets all the headlines, and the reason why is it gets all the clicks. And to be honest with you, it’s hard for me getting you to come watch this video if I don’t have some sort of doomer. So we’ll start with the bad news, and then we’ll get to the real data. Now, the big bad doomer headline is GDP, gross domestic product, went negative. Now, this is after 11 quarters of positive growth.

It’s a big deal. Trump is crashing the economy. What is he doing? How dare he wreck the entire world economy? Don’t you know that other nations are going to hate the United States and leverage to trade with us again and all of those things? Well, yes. So here is a government statistic. This is from the BEA, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. And what this is showing is GDP, gross domestic product, for the first quarter of 2025. And what they’re showing is that we have now a negative quarter. After all these positive quarters, this line here is about 3%.

So a little bit less than 3%, and now we have a negative print. Boo-hoo. The media headlines love to pick up on this, and it’s true. Now, if we go out a little bit further, you might remember this. By the way, I’m using some charts here from my friends over at the Bitcoin layer. You should check them out. We’ll link to them in the description down below. Also, my friend Pete St. Onge, we’re using some stuff from his newsletter as well. But what we can see here is that we have this negative GDP print after all these positive GDP preprints, except for this one over here.

Now, you might remember this one when Biden was president, and everyone starts talking about the US is in a recession. And then Biden says, the Biden administration says, well, that’s not a technical recession. You might remember that. Anyway, so now we have a negative GDP print. However, that’s the headline. What we want to do is we want to peel back the data what’s in the GDP so we can understand what’s really going on. Is this something that we should be alarmed for? Or is this something that we should think about differently? Okay, so the data.

We want to go into the data. That’s why I show you the charts. I show you the graphs so you can see the size, the speed, all those things. And we first of all want to understand GDP. So GDP is gross domestic product, G domestic product, right? The reason why I say that is because first of all, GDP is all messed up. Like if the government is taking money from you and I from tax dollars and spending that, should they be counted as gross domestic product? It’s not really producing any product. It’s just redistribution, right? It certainly shouldn’t be counting Toyota trucks that were made overseas and then brought into the United States.

And so the whole GDP basket is a little bit messed up. As a matter of fact, Howard Lutnick, the new Secretary of Commerce says he wants to redo the entire GDP basket, which I think I’m welcoming. Okay, but understanding that because it’s domestic product, then we can start to understand the data. What am I talking about? Well, what we can see is that when we peel back the curtain and look at the data, what we see is that imports surged 41%. So again, from the BEA contributions to the percent change in GDP for the first quarter.

And what we can see is that we have consumer spending was positive, investment spending was big time positive. We’re going to come back to that. Government spending was down. That should be good, right? Government spending was down and exports up a little bit. But here, look at this one right here. This is a big negative imports. The imports were a big negative to GDP. Why? Because it’s supposed to be domestic product. So if we’re importing from someone else, that sort of takes away from the domestic product, which is why it counts as a negative.

But here’s the problem. We have this 41% surge in imports, so it takes away from GDP, giving it this negative thing. But why is this a massive surge of imports? Well, because of tariffs. Because tariffs were announced, massive tariffs, maybe 100% to 100% on China. And so everybody is front running. Everybody’s trying to import all the goods they need right now because they don’t know what the prices will be later. And so we have this, what I’m calling a sugar rush, that’s all happening now. It’s important to understand this is like a one-time thing.

This isn’t like a new trend. This is something that will continue. It’s a one-time thing. And it’s because of this unusual circumstance of, like I said, of these tariffs and not knowing what’s going to be next. So what we want to do is, what does that mean? If it’s a one-time thing that was because of this tariff, it’s not an ongoing thing. Well, what would happen if that wasn’t there? Let’s take a look at that. What we can see is that all the pain was caused by a 41% surge of imports.

This is from Pete St. Anj, front running tariffs, and this counts as negative GDP. So it counts against it. The actual GDP, if we take that out, the actual GDP soared by a blistering 4.5%. Now, I just showed you the historical GDP for the last couple of years. 4.5% is massive. It’s way bigger than we’ve seen in the last several years. Blistering, as he calls it. But it actually gets better than that. Hold on, there’s more. Because government spending dropped for the first time since 2022. I showed you that in the chart.

Why is that a good thing? Well, because remember, the government spending is only spending money that it’s taken from you and I. So one, it shouldn’t be double counted. Number two, the government’s running massive deficits. So there’s about $2 trillion, roughly, of spending per year that’s debt. It’s added to the debt. So if the government can spend less, then one, we bring the debt down, number one. But number two, it gets even better than that. Because consumer spending outpaced government spending by 3.2%. So private spending, consumer spending, that’s the real data.

Not the government spending. Not the fiscal spending. It’s you and I. So that’s why government went down. Consumer spending picked up. This is also the best number since 2022. The Biden administration was hiring massive amounts of government workers, bringing the government spending numbers up to sort of goose the data, goose the numbers. So a lot of the bad numbers that we’re seeing are getting back to like real data, which is why we’re seeing the best numbers since 2022. Now control for that drop in government spending and the economy grew by nearly 5%.

So now you take out the one time sugar rush, you adjust for the difference in consumer and government spending. And now we have an economy growing by nearly 5%. Sounds really good. There’s more in the data. We’re going to get to it. Remember, there was one stat I was going to show you. So now we’re about 5%. Now, I want to just say real quickly, before we go too deep, I like to look at the data. If you’re new to the channel, you may not have been watching me for very long.

Here’s some videos that I pulled going back to October of 22. Now you might remember in October of 2022, the whole world was going to end. Now the markets were going to crash and all these things. And I made a video said there is no market crash coming. And here’s why. The real data the Fed doesn’t want you to see. The data showing you is time to buy. The central banks are going to be forced into this playbook, easing the markets. Breaking data shows the Fed pivot is here. It’s time to start buying. The new data tells us it’s time to buy.

So this is from October of 2022, going all the way forward. We have one, why aren’t the markets crash coming? Breaking that down. My prediction for financial markets. On and on and on. Bear markets canceled. On and on and on. Now, that was at a time, again, when the whole world thought the markets were going to crash. And it was right here in the lows. October of 22 is when I started making those videos. And of course, the NASDAQ is up about 100% since that time. Also, some more receipts here. These are videos I made telling you it was historic time to buy Bitcoin.

6, 7, 22, 19,000. 7, 19, 22, 19,000. Bitcoin is 15,000, 20,000, 26,000. Of course, now it’s up over $100,000 or around $100,000 right now. So I just want to show you that. I haven’t always been a doomer. I have the receipts to prove it. And those videos are all still up on my channel. You can go watch them. So why do I say that real quickly? Because we can look past the headlines and look past the media and look past the hysteria and look at the data. We see something different. Okay. Before I go on and tell you about this hidden bull market and what the data is really telling us is going to happen.

I want to let you know that next week, I’m going to have a live event like I do about every four to six weeks where I can go in depth here. We’ll go about an hour. I’m going to have about 30, 35 charts. Show you exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio. It’s one thing to have the knowledge, but if you don’t apply the knowledge, if you don’t know what assets to buy to take advantage of this bull run, it doesn’t really do you a lot of good. So come hang out.

I’m going to break the entire case down, show you all the charts, the graphs, what I’m buying, and then we hang out live Q&A. It’s super fun. I’ll answer all your questions. It’s all free. There’s a link down below if you want to come join me. Join me live. Hope to see you there. But what is the data showing us? And why do I think there’s a hidden bull market ready to emerge? Well, a couple of reasons. Again, back into the data. Number one, we want to look at the sales to private domestic purchasers, the consumers, the private domestic purchase, the PC.

And what we can see here, going back to 2022, we can see that we are still above sort of normal, right? We don’t have this big sugar rush that was kind of the snapback reversion of mean here, but we’re doing really well. The market’s looking actually really, really strong. Nothing like you would hear on the news that the consumers stretched thin, the economy’s crumbling, all those things. So it’s up 3%. We can see that PCE, we can see is up 1.79%. This is a personal consumption expenditures. We can see here the green is the consumer spending services of almost 2.4%.

The red here, consumer spending goods total, a little bit low, and then consumer spending non-durable goods up 2.7%. So the spending is looking really good. Again, past the headlines, past the media-driven polls and looking at the data. What we can see is that there’s kind of a difference in shifting of purchases, but we can see here there’s a rise in personal savings. So on top of that, personal savings has also gone up. So the consumer’s still spending, they’re still buying. On top of the spending, on top of the buying, holding up, we have savings going up.

So that tells us something very different. That tells us that the economy is not crumbling, that the consumer is doing pretty good. Now, look, I understand. There’s millions of people that are not doing good. There are also millions of people that are doing really good. And so this is not a model that everybody’s a little bit different, but the data is showing us that the economy is not crumbling like they want to say it is. However, this doesn’t even break down what I really think is happening. Okay, the businesses, the business spending, the business investments are going parabolic.

Consumer’s holding up. Businesses are going parabolic. Let me break that down. All right, what we’ve seen here, I talked about this on a previous video, that private investments, businesses investing into their future production into factories and equipment things that are up 22%. 22%, we are talking a massive number. This is the biggest spike since 2021. Again, from my friends over at the Bitcoin layer, US business capital spending. And so what we can see here, Q1, look how big those numbers are. Look how big those numbers are. I mean, you don’t even compare.

This is just on Q1. Now, what does that mean for us? Well, if businesses, the smart consumer, the one that’s paying attention, the one that has skin in the game, if they’re making this big of investments into the future, new equipment, new buildings, new manufacturing, things like that, they are expecting big things to happen. All right, there’s more to that. We’ll break down that. But that’s big. Equipment spending is up 22.5%. Again, this is long-term thinking. This is the big businesses, they see positive economic growth in the future.

The big one here, information processing equipment, information processing, think data centers, think computers, is up 70% annualized. This is an all-time record, all-time record spending in information processing services. And I recently did a video on Trump announced $8 trillion has already been committed to be invested into the United States, $8 trillion. Over 22%, massive in new deals. We’ll link to that video right here if you want, or check it out in the description down below, the $8 trillion tsunami that’s about to hit, we’ll call it that.

And really what we’re seeing is this new industrial revolution. This is just the beginning. We have $8 trillion just being invested into the country right now. But what does that mean? Where does it go? And so much more. Well, number one, we have an AI boom, and it’s an onshore and boom. So as I said, the information processing, the computers, AI is driving the capex, the capital expenditures. We have this massive surge, 71% on an annualized basis, an all-time record on that. And why do you think that is? Well, because AI is taking off so fast, we have physical compute is needed, right? So in order to build all these large language models, all these LLMs, you need lots of compute, you need lots of servers, you need warehouses, you need data centers, you need lots of materials to build these things out.

We can see again, let’s take a look at a chart courtesy of the Bitcoin layer, US real private fixed investment for information processing equipment. And look at this number right here compared to some mean right here since 2008. Now, obviously AI is something new, but since 2008, we had the iPhone and we had cloud computing all that take off as well. This is taking off at a whole other level like we’ve never even seen before. And really, we’re seeing this new wave of onchoring.

Like I said, over $8 trillion has been announced to be built here. And a lot of that is in this information marketing. Now, if you follow my work, it shouldn’t be a big surprise to you. Of course, I always talk about the quantum leap cycle that happens about every 50 years. And the one that is just starting, so this happens six times, one, two, three, four, five. We’re on the sixth one right now. And this is the decentralized revolution. This is the convergence of Bitcoin. And AI coming together and how they work together to give us a whole other set of building blocks to build things that we don’t even know about.

So if you follow my work and you understand the cycles, this AI boom shouldn’t be a big surprise. It’s more of a confirmation of that. Okay. And we have this new wave of onchoring and this is again, even for blue collar construction workers, right? We need to build the warehouse. We need to build the data centers. It’s the largest relocation of capital since World War II. I just did a video on this talking about how after World War II, the US sort of had this wartime economy and re-industrialized.

And now we’re doing the same thing right now. I expect another massive era of prosperity. The reason why is because the US is becoming the global hub for this, the global hub for AI, the global hub for processing, the global hub for data processing. It’s all happening right here. Okay. So that’s the data was a little bit of my opinion on top of it, but the data is the data. So what we’re trying to do as investors is we’re trying to find the signal through all the noise because there’s plenty of noise out there for anyone saying one thing you can find someone saying the other.

What do they say about opinions? Fill in the blank. I’m not going to answer that, right? But we’ve all this noise. And again, what gets media headlines, what gets YouTube views, what gets you to click on these videos is talking about sensational doomer stuff. But we want to find the signal and we do that by understanding what’s fact, data, and then what’s opinion. All right. So that’s what we want to understand. The noise is all the negative headlines that gets you to click, but the signal tells us something different and we can choose to interpret the data differently.

But what we can see is by looking at some of these charts, it can give us more information. So for example, when this was announced, the negative GDP brand and all the news media ran into hysteria telling you how bad things are and Trump’s going to crash the entire world. What we saw is that risk assets, which would typically sell off quickly like the Bitcoin, like the S&P 500, for example, they didn’t sell off. As a matter of fact, they’re really very resilient and they’ve only been going up since then.

Huh, that’s interesting. So the media is trying to whip us up into hysteria. The YouTubers and the Twitter people are trying to put us in that hysteria, but the data, huh, the assets were pretty resilient. We also know that if we look at global liquidity, again, if you watch my channel on a regular basis, you know that I always talk about global liquidity because it’s global liquidity that pushes asset prices higher. So we always want to keep our eye on that. One of my favorite people to follow for global liquidity is Michael Howell.

This just came out a couple of days ago. Global liquidity is rising. That’s the headline. It’s rising. How much is it rising? It reached a new all-time high of $177 trillion, a new all-time high in liquidity. It’s still coming on, but it gets better. Expect the current liquidity cycle. Oh, he expected the current liquidity cycle to peak around Q4 this year. So he’s been talking about this. Of course, I talk about his research all the time. We typically have about these four-year liquidity cycles, not to the day, plus or minus. And because of that, he’s been expecting it to peak sometime around the end of this year.

Of course, if you’re a Bitcoin bull, you understand there’s a four-year cycles as well. It’s a lot of people think that maybe Bitcoin would peak around the end of this year as well. However, he says, however, the rapidly deteriorating global economy, which will likely spur central banks to ease, we’re already seeing it, has caused us to reconsider. Maybe it’s not going to end in 2026. All in all, we now expect the cycle to peak in mid-2026 because right now the central banks are just starting to fire up their money printers, if you will.

The Federal Reserve has just been easing lately. This is all getting going. And so he thought it might peak in the end of the year. Now he says mid-2026. And because of that, risk asset markets and liquidity sensitive cryptocurrencies, so basically risk assets, Bitcoin, are benefiting. Okay, so that’s the data. That’s the data. Global liquidity is rising. We also can look at the data and go, well, the bonds, the bond market, they didn’t crash. They hold steady. As a matter of fact, they eased a little bit. So all of the data points are telling us that the signal tells us that things are really good and not just really good.

They’re loading up for a slingshot. That’s what it’s telling us. We see rising wages and stable inflation. So if wages are going up and inflation is stable, so wages are going up faster than the cost of goods, that means the consumer has more money to spend, which means a better economy. Now we can also see, because of this, because of liquidity easing rising, we can also see a change in consumer credit lags by about a year. And so because liquidity has been going up, we can expect consumer credit to be going up next.

And again, if the consumer gets credit, what do they do? They spend it on things, more cars, more vacations, more going out to eat, whatever, more clothes, etc. They should be buying assets. You and I, we’re buying assets, the consumer though. Okay, so what we want to understand is that there’s a fake trap. The media is incentivized to get you in fear, to get clicks. They’re also, unfortunately, in the United States, heavily politicized. And they use the media politicized as a weapon. So one, they want clicks, two, they use it as a weapon.

So we don’t want to get trapped in that fake trap. We want to understand that they weaponize fear and learn how to separate fact and fiction, fact and opinion. The GDP is a headline number. It’s a lagging indicator. And it’s also a distorted metric. I’ve explained that to you and why that is. Fear equals clicks, clicks equals you stay broke. Again, I started making videos in October 2022, told people it’s time to buy, I was putting money back in, and so many people sat on the sidelines. One of my good friends, he’s a big macroeconomic YouTuber.

You might know who I’m talking about. We do a lot of videos together. We had dinner in August of 2023, after I made that video called the bear market is canceled. And they told me, Mark, how irresponsible of you to make that video right now. Don’t you know the yield curve is inverted and blah, blah, blah. Yeah, but Bitcoin was like 35,000 now. It’s tripled since then. So how much money do you lose sitting on the sideline crippled in fear because the media is weaponizing these headlines against you, instead of just looking at the data.

Now what I see, because I study history, I see this mirrors past moments like 2009 or like 2020. Those were historic times to be buying and pushing into the markets, not sitting on the sidelines crippled with fear. The cost to following the fear narrative is what we call lost opportunity cost. It’s missing this window. That’s the cost. And ultimately, you’ll miss generational buying opportunities. This only comes around every 50 years. The 50 year quantum wave cycle tells us this. So you can sit on the sideline crippled of fear because of the news headlines, or you can learn how to read the data and understand this only comes around in 50 years.

Or you can let me interpret the data for you. Come hang out with me next week. I’ll break down about 100 charts. We’ll go live. I’ll tell you exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio where I think the very best investments are. And then we’ll hang out. We’ll do all the live Q&A so you can figure out exactly how to answer your questions and apply to your portfolio. There’s a link down below if you want to come hang out and hang out for free. Hope to see you there. But otherwise, if you want to understand this a little bit better, you probably want to watch this video right here about where $8 trillion is actually going to go.

And I hope to see you over on that other video. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.