Quote we’re raising our gold price target to US dollar 3500 across our forecast horizon and remain long the metal in our global and Asia asset allocation. We are also lifting our upside and downside targets by 300 dollars to be 3800 and 3200 respectively Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince lancey where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news get you ready for your day And now here’s Vince Good morning of Vince lancey. It’s Monday morning. This is the gold fixed market rundown Today, we’ll be discussing China’s insurance buying as being locked in in context of a UBS report that we’ll be sharing with you Ten year yields are 444 Up five and a half the dollar is 99 52 down 25 the S&P 500 is 54 25 up 64 the VIX is 33 35 down 4 gold is 32 23 ish down 14 silver is 32 25 offered 3 cents lower copper is 458 up 5 WTI is 62 30 up 71 natural gas is 351 and change Down a half a percentage point, which is basically a penny and a half Bitcoin is 84 890 up 1200 Plating is 933 up 18 Platinum is 948 Up five and a half gold silver hovering below 100 soybeans 1030 down a penny 1036 I should say corn 483 down a penny a little bit more weed 561 down 5 cents almost a full percent Okay, if you look here at the board That’s the sign of a market that is expecting Some sort of stimulus or relief or easing from the Fed industrial commodities are up Even silver is up right industrial commodities are up stocks are up bonds are up the dollars down And that’s it.

So whether it be Hope or reality will find out soon enough Okay home page We have About nine stories this weekend and of the nine years history that we think are very interesting We’re going to talk about Chinese insurance pilot plan How it’s really a mandate? That’s the Sunday founders discussion that we shared with everyone with premium. I should say Lower left-hand side American gold is German gold. That’s a piece that Centers or repatriation of gold to the US and what the purpose of it is the top left-hand side is a founders post We just over the weekend received some information about Goldman’s upgrade Goldman’s new upgrade and we share that with founders.

We’ll be going through that again in more detail today for premium Again those are the post from last from over the weekend that we think matter the most China’s insurance pilot plan is really a mandate UBS raises gold targets by $500 American gold is German gold founders Goldman re raises We said that already in heart net all the way at the bottom believe it or not Says to stay short stocks until pal pivots Alright The main event UBS gold analysis China insurance buying locking in UBS’s CIO put out a brief note late last week as an entree into a longer note And that it’s titled taking the gloves off raising our forecast Quote we’re raising our gold price target to US dollar 3,500 across our forecast horizon and remain long the metal in our global and Asia asset allocation We are also lifting our upside and downside targets by three hundred dollars to be 3,800 and 3,200 Respectively, and so that’s basically their range their risk range They’re a 200 they think is a base case now for 2025 and 3,800 is a topside Just a quick note Other banks have higher topsides.

Goldman as high as 4,500, but that’s a separate conversation staying with the bank Another excerpt aside from safe haven demand and tactical speculators positioning We see signs of a more structural shift in gold allocations For example Beijing allowing insurance funds to invest in gold and central bank systematically raising gold share of total reserves This significantly supports demand while supply is unlikely to respond much to higher prices There’s a lot in that paragraph It’s essentially their bigger report Consolidated into one paragraph quite nicely and you can lose a lot of the emphasis Of it because they’re just trying to get something out and give people a summary But without going through all of it, but just curse in a cursory fashion The key word in this sense is structural Right.

That means China’s market structure is changing to encourage gold to be owned Specifically insurance funds. We’re going to focus on the word allowing Allowing is the word and that they use Encouraging is the word that we used last week and Mandating is the word that we’re going to use today for this very brief Observation Okay, so central banks And central bank systematically raising gold share of total reserve Reserves, that’s right Where where once we thought that gold was being bought by central banks. We everyone thought that gold was being bought by central banks and They would stop buying at a point Well, they’re not and they’re not because they’re changing their mix of reserves.

They are literally De-dollarizing they’re diversified. That’s the way you’ll hear is the word you’ll hear is they’re diversifying FX reserves, they’re de-dollarizing. They’re not selling Anyway, you get the point. Okay, so For example Bank of America says they could go as high as they should be about 30% of their reserves When this is over and it will take anywhere from two to five years So that’s not something that’s gonna make gold spike to 5,000 tomorrow, but it raises the floor and then this sentence here Significantly This significantly supports demand while supply is unlikely to respond much to higher prices.

That’s right That’s because the supply Of their miners is Scrap and that’s being spoken for as well Now Another observation we want to make which is very specific to the title Two hundred and fifty to three hundred tons of gold supply will be taken off the market. That means fresh mining supply indefinitely by end of 2025 as Mandated that’s our word by China’s governing party to its insurance industry in Continuing process of gold liberalization and de-dollar ization we Had a conversation. What are we talking about there? We had a conversation with Bayh Jiajung a written conversation and We were trying to get some insight into him about China’s change in plans You see about around March 25th gold started to rocket Again, and it coincided with an analysis that came out and that analysis Or came coming out of China was about the insurance companies plan and it went from being the short and long of it is China announced that after the pilot plan is satisfied.

We’re going to Ramp it up to five percent. We’re going to include every insurance company and That was that’s step four Step one is one percent step two and three are essentially them saying hurry up get it done now We can’t really wait much longer. No I mean, I’m making it a little bit hyperbolic, but the fact of the matter is The one percent cap that those in the know we’re talking about the one percent cap insurance companies can only put 1% of their assets into Gold that wasn’t a cap.

That was a mandate. They want them to have 1% of their assets in gold by the end of 2025 so Pilot programs for China are not really tests. They’re We’re rolling it out and we’re going to stress test it and we can’t stress test it unless you people buy Faster, so I think that might be one of the reasons that gold started to take off starting March 25th And one of the reasons that the banks the bullion banks Began to roll out higher prices for gold we have more on that We have more on the UBS aspect of that and UBS raises gold targets $500 the two charts there are from their longer report, which we’re not sharing Visible gold stocks of love that are lower probably even lower than that You Know visible is not available.

I think they’re being very careful with their words there and there’s the comax gold intake coming in So there you have it Moving on market news US chip makers are outsourcing manufacturing that are outsourcing manufacturing will escape China’s tariff US chip We highlight that because If you’re trying to figure out what’s going to get tariff that what’s not if your industry is important For the US economy, it will not be tariff. So we’re not going to tariff or at least not temporarily We’re not going to tariff energy On a global basis We’re not going to tariff things that help our economy go like things that make iPhones work on a global basis We are going to tariff energy on a case-by-case basis.

We don’t like Venezuela Tariff it or where we want to call sanction Right. So globally you only tariff that which you do not need You do not tariff what you need. So you tariff Pistachio nuts from Iran Because or global you tariff pistachio nuts because who makes them Iran and Turkey, you’re like, I don’t give a shit about them. We have our own right you do not tariff Critical minerals you do not tariff Things that you need to grow your manufacturing economy. So you can see the flip side of that is China is Not going to tariff US chip makers because China wants China needs our chips So what we have that they need will not get tariff and what we have what we need that they have We will not tariff and that’s how it works.

That’s really how it works. It’s what you need versus what you want and And then after you do your blanket tariffs you You do car mounts with individual countries, and that’s what that’s what Trump is doing rather. I think sloppily I can’t say that Trump is doing it sloppily, but I can’t say that Voices that he’s let loose into the wilderness Are not doing a good job of it. Anyway, so there you go That’s the comment about the the tariffs data on deck retail and housing this week You can see that’s all the data summary and final market check This week Last week the end of last week we saw several important bank reports come out UBS JP Morgan Goldman Sachs and probably others that we haven’t seen yet Those reports signify a realization and a ramping up of locked in demand by China as well as increasing reliable ETF demand out of the West Those things in combination are raising the floor and right now raising the ceiling We would say that This week will probably be dominated by looking at the markets themselves here put some charts up for you This week will probably be dominated by Looking for the concerns about the Fed to do something to bear fruit and That could happen But we need a stable bond market first and one of the reasons one of the ways you stabilize upon market is by removing tariffs On Apple another reason another way to do it more substantially would be possibly Doing having private conversations with your trading partners like like Japan and Europe But one thing that will happen if they can’t get other things to happen Will be a way to stabilize long-term bond yields is yield curve control And we’ve talked about it before yield curve control is a way to create inflation if you want it it’s also a way to stop runaway long-term bond yields, so yield curve control if you’re not familiar with it is similar to quantitative easing and that it’s targeting to keep your long-term bond supported if You do it the main difference Between quantitative easing and yield curve control is quantitative easing Targets volumes we’re going to keep buying bonds until we decide we don’t have to buy them anymore.

And that’s Why you have all that extra money in the economy? Going into stocks during QA yield curve control is a game of chicken yield curve control says We’re targeting a rate. It’s not going above 4.5% and every time it gets there, we’re gonna buy bonds until we break you So it becomes a game of chicken and China. I mean at Japan had done that for years It also creates inflation But it hides it in the bond market. I’m not sure if those things will happen but those are the the nuclear options that the US has and and they will do them if they have to The markets top right hand side.

These are weekly charts gold is had a great week, obviously It looks like visually a little bit of a capitulation But if you look at the capitulations that gold has had over the past year and a half You’ll note that the capitulations are met with sideways movement not big drops Maybe big drops for a day Left hand side silver a little more volatile, but silver is going to recover You’re probably gonna see the gold-silver ratio drops significantly if The Fed Continues to or if the markets continue to believe that the Fed will ease Lower left hand side.

That’s the Swiss Frank. We’re watching that particularly because of the safe haven currencies again the Swiss Frank verse the dollar gold is not outperforming the Swiss Frank, so That would indicate to us that There’s more upside to gold Out of Europe. There’s more buying in Europe for gold that hasn’t bought yet And they will buy if the ECB cuts and the SMB cuts and those those entities are very likely to cut not a hundred percent guarantee of a very likely to cut Because well if this continues their currencies are going to continue to strengthen and that will just cause Greater recessionary risk for them.

They don’t want to be safe the euro and the Swiss Frank don’t want to be Safer than the dollar because safer than a dollar means Recession for them right now and they can ill afford to have one Japan as well lower right-hand side ten-year yields explosive weak on the yields right cause for alarm The market is pausing today. We’ll see what happens Vince have a great day. Well. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince lancey You sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here.

Hope you enjoyed the show. We’ll see you again tomorrow Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes Only please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching You
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