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Summary
➡ The Democrats are losing support and the Republicans are gaining more electoral votes, especially in red states. Some states that were previously Democratic are now leaning towards the GOP. However, the Republican party needs to adapt to this change and focus on populist campaigns to win over independent voters. The party also needs to replace traditional Republicans with more conservative ones to continue their success.
Transcript
And I’ve built a whole amazing event around it so I want you to come and join me at the Kingdom Builders Experience April 9th through 11th. You’ll get an exclusive invite to the school’s ribbon cutting. You’ll be invited to a special Scotch and cigars meet up with yours truly. I’ll be lecturing at the school plus we’re hosting a business makers summit where education meets opportunity. Now seats are limited. Click the link below to learn more and I can’t wait to see you there. And that is why today, although I am still a Democrat, I am announcing that I will forego the Democratic primary for mayor and appeal directly to all New Yorkers as an independent candidate and the general election.
I firmly believe that this city is better served by truly independent leadership, not leaders pulled at by the extremists on the far left or the far right. But instead, those rooted in the common middle, the place where the vast majority of New Yorkers are firmly planted. The Democrats lose another one. Yet another high profile big city mayor is leaving the Democrat Party. New York City Mayor Eric Adams has formally announced that he’s going independent for his re-election run. The move comes less than 24 hours after a judge permanently dismissed a federal corruption case against the mayor.
Following, of course, Trump’s Justice Department dropping their charges in exchange for Adams cooperation with Trump’s immigration crackdown. Now, unfortunately for Adams, his total 180 on illegal immigration has made him, shall we say, rather unpopular with their rabid woke far left base of New York’s Democrat Party. So he’s finding respite as an independent. Now, I noted that Adams is the latest big city mayor to abandon the Democrats. He’s certainly not the first. Back in September of 2023, the mayor of the great city of Dallas, the ninth largest city in the nation, flipped from Democrat to Republican. In an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, Mayor Eric Johnson announced that he was leaving the Democrats and switching parties, writing, quote, the future of America’s great urban centers depends on the willingness of the nation’s mayors to champion law and order and practice fiscal conservatism.
Our cities desperately need the genuine commitment to these principles, as opposed to the inconsistent poll driven commitment of many Democrats that has long been a defining characteristic of the GOP. In other words, American cities need Republicans and Republicans need American cities. And what’s so interesting there is that literally just a few weeks after that op-ed and that switch, another city agreed with Mayor Johnson. In November of that year, the city of Charleston, South Carolina, elected their first Republican mayor in over a century. William Cogswell defeated a two-term Democrat incumbent in a shock election that saw the defeat of what was then a staunch Biden ally and a major U.S.
city mayor. It’s the first time Charleston elected a Republican mayor since the 1870s. And of course, this anticipated the massive national swing to the right via the MAGA movement that was to come back this past November. And that’s the key. What’s so amazing here is that all of this is actually part of a nationwide trend that we’re seeing, particularly now, with voter registration advantages, particularly Republican voter registration advantage, that are absolutely crushing the Democrats. I’m serious. Wait until you see the latest numbers here. You’re not going to believe your eyes. It’s going to blow you away.
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And you know the best part? It starts at just $11.99. No prescriptions, no hassle, just natural relief. Visit the link below and use code Turley for 25% off and finally enjoy the sleep you deserve. Click on that link below right now. You’re going to absolutely love this. So, Mayor Adams appears to be a part of the growing trend that’s leaving really the Democrat Party in the dust. And nowhere are we seeing that more than in this trend of voter registrations. Now, take a look at the latest in neighboring New Jersey. Over the past month, Republicans once again posted more gains over Democrats in terms of net registrations.
And we’re talking significant numbers. They’ve out-registered Democrats by 4.5,000 votes. That’s crazy. Republicans registered over 5,200 new voters. Whereas Democrats, they registered just shy of 700. Now, remember, Jersey came within five points of voting Trump in November. Jersey is consistently now voting to the right of New York. They’re voting to the right of Connecticut. To an extent, they’re even voting to the right of Virginia. And this is because of the working class realignment around MAGA. The working class realignment around MAGA, both white working class and non-white working class, means that Jersey is indeed on its way to turning red.
Speaking of, take a look at the latest numbers coming out of New Mexico. Now, no Republican presidential candidate has won New Mexico in 20 years since 2004. Like Nevada, by the way, but also like Nevada that just flipped, New Mexico is moving solidly in the Republican camp. Look at these registration numbers. Since November, Republicans have gained, get this, nearly 20,000 voter registrations. They netted a plus 5,000 in the month of March alone. Now, why is that significant? Because when we go back to November 2025, or 2024, Republican registration has nearly cut in half Harris’s margin of victory.
She won by just over 55,000 votes in New Mexico. So at this rate, New Mexico will clearly enter into the category of a swing state ready for the GOP to take it over in 2028, if not sooner. Again, we did the same thing with Nevada. Nevada was, we had not won Nevada since 2020, since 2004. And it always looked like, oh, we’re getting there, we’re getting there. But, you know, for the last 20 years, it would always disappoint every four-year cycle. And then all of a sudden, boom, November 5th, 2024, Trump gets it. He wins Nevada by a few points.
The same thing looks like, the same pattern looks like it’s happening here now in New Mexico. And that’s the key in all of this voter registration strategizing. It’s all about shifting the electoral map to new swing states, states that were once very reliably blue, now becoming purple. States like Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Jersey. If the Republicans solidify their Sunbelt dominance and take Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina off the map, which it looks like they’re effectively doing right now. I mean, heck, Arizona is reaching like a 10-point Republican voter registration advantage right now.
It’s absolutely insane. So, if they take off the Sunbelt states, and if Pennsylvania truly becomes the new Ohio, which by the way, it looks like it is doing, look at the latest voter registration stats from Pennsylvania. Republicans have out-registered Democrats by over 6,000 in the month of March. That’s cutting the Democrats’ lead in Pennsylvania down to just over 93,000. Now, keep in mind, it was just a few years ago, right, when Democrats had a million voter registration advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania. It’s now been reduced to 90,000. And the estimate, the projection is that Pennsylvania will officially flip red by the summer of 2026, just in time for the midterms.
And keep in mind, the Republicans have been able to win Pennsylvania even with those massive voter registration deficits over the last several years. So, I mean, can you imagine what’s going to happen when we become the official majority in terms of voter registration? It’s the same thing that happened in Ohio. We don’t actually have to guess. We have sort of a model here in the state of Ohio. Pennsylvania is following in the footsteps of Ohio. Ohio was always a swing state, and then just a couple of election cycles back, it went solid red and it’s never looked back.
So, it’s only a matter of time before Pennsylvania becomes comparably red, as Ohio is, I mean, Ohio is a super majority Republican legislature, governor, attorney general, the Republican presidential candidate wins it by double digits now. Frankly, with Pennsylvania taking off the map, Pennsylvania alone, Democrats are screwed. In fact, electoral reapportionment in 2030, it’s even worse. The electoral reapportionment in 2030, it so heavily favors red states that Republicans could actually lose Pennsylvania, they could lose Wisconsin, they could lose Michigan, the so-called the three blue all states, they could lose all of them and still win the White House easily because red states are gaining so many more electoral votes, I think upwards of a dozen.
But regardless, Pennsylvania is nevertheless, to make matters worse, swinging the way of the GOP, as is New Jersey, as is New Mexico, as is Virginia, as is New Hampshire. I mean, by the way, with New Hampshire, it looks like we’re going to gain the Senate, pick up there in 2026 with Chris Sununu, as is Maine, as is Minnesota. I mean, Minnesota, Tim Waltz’s Minnesota is so right for the taking. They actually have been voting to the right of Virginia of late, let that hit you. So all of this is key to understanding where we are politically right now.
The Democrats are literally hemorrhaging voters, voters and candidates, as we could see with New York, right? Adams, RFK, Tulsi, Elon, they’re all Democrats. They’re gone. They’re gone. The party is in a death spiral. It’s in an 80-20 doom loop, as it were. Now, in light of what happened this week, the only question that now remains is whether the state Republican parties that are still owned and operated by neocon Rhino leadership and neocon Rhino donors, the question is whether those state Republican apparatus are going to adjust to this new reality. I mean, we saw the disappointment here this week in Wisconsin, and I really appreciate Robert Barnes analysis here.
He tweeted out judicial elections require populist campaigns, but GOP legal establishment, and I’d also say their political establishment as a whole, hates populism and the donor class gate keeps the political consultants that campaigns can utilize. In other words, if you want to run for state Supreme Court in a place like Wisconsin as a Republican, the donors will only allow you to do so using the political consultants they approve of, which of course are bought and paid for by that donor class. And so the result of this gatekeeping is that these candidates are never allowed to campaign on populist themes to consistently win judicial elections in the Midwest.
Brilliant, brilliant bullseye. And he said, you know, it comes as more and more data reveals that Republicans actually did show up in Wisconsin. Republicans did. Brad Schimel got more Republican vote than the Democrat got back in 2023 when she beat the Republican by 11 points. Brad Schimel got more votes than the Democrat got back in 2023. He should have won that election on Tuesday with that kind of voter turnout, but he didn’t because independence turned against him. Independence went with the Democrats and that was the difference. The very independence that voted for Trump mere months ago, they turned against the Republican because he came across more as a Paul Ryan Republican that the Rhino donor class is very comfortable with rather than the Trump Republican that Wisconsin independent voters are comfortable with.
So it’s a combination of infrastructure and ideology. We have to run MAGA populist while running at the same time and amazing get out the vote operation like Scott Pressler always does. Running Rhino Republicans is going to kill this party at the state level because particularly Midwestern populations want nothing to do with that. Nor should they. So I think Barnes is absolutely right. There needs to be a major shake up among all of these Republican parties at the state level if we’re going to see the MAGA success at the federal level translate at the state level.
The good news is that when it comes to voter registration trends, we’re on our way. Now it’s time to replace the Romney Ryan Republicans with the rising ultra MAGA faithful. But in this new conservative age, I want to know what’s on your mind. Call me at 717-844-5984. Just leave your question. I’ll be checking in every single week to answer as many as I can. Again, that’s 717-844-5984. Your chance to be a part of the conversation. One more time, 717-844-5984. Give me a call and let’s talk. [tr:trw].
See more of Dr. Steve Turley on their Public Channel and the MPN Dr. Steve Turley channel.