➡ The text discusses the analysis of market trends using momentum charts. It explains that if certain numbers are hit, it confirms a continuing trend. The text also discusses how momentum can indicate new highs, even if they’re not visible in the price. It further explains that sideways movement in the market can be bullish, indicating a potential upward trend. Lastly, it discusses specific price points for silver, suggesting that if these are surpassed, it could signal the end of a downward trend.

➡ The text discusses trading strategies for gold and silver, focusing on momentum and trend lines. It explains that the market is currently overbought, but the momentum is still strong. The text also mentions a pattern of seven days up, two days back in the market. Lastly, it provides a brief market recap, noting that the Dow and S&P 500 remained stable, the dollar gained value, and oil prices increased due to concerns about Iran sanctions and OPEC’s output plan.

Continuation or topping is the pause or topping is the behavior to this to ascertain. And we’ll be doing. We’ll be giving you some numbers that we’re looking at. Plus we have some special insights from Michael Oliver’s 360report which came out over the weekend for gold and silver. Welcome to the morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now here’s Vince. Morning everyone. It’s Monday. I’m Vince Lany and this is the Go Fix market rundown. There’s the homepage. We’ve been a little bit busy over the weekend.

You can see we have there today we will be discussing doing a little technical analysis work especially after a new high. And then a week close on Friday. We want to see if continuation or topping is the pause or topping is the behavior to this to, to ascertain. And we’ll be doing. We’ll be giving you some numbers that we’re looking at. Plus we have some special insights from Michael Oliver’s 360report which came out over the weekend for gold and silver. All right, Tom, let’s start with the markets. Gold is. Oh, all the financials are gone. Ten year yields are up 5 at 430.

The dollar is 104.10 down 4. The S P 500 is 5732 up 62. Nice. The VIX is 1898, down 30 basis points. Gold is 30, 27 up 3 and change. Silver is 33 11, up 10. Copper is 5 11, up 6. WTI 68.99, up 38. Natural gas 392, down 5. Bitcoin is 87. Spot 400 of 1400. Palladium 958 up 4 and change. Platinum 978 up 1 and change. Gold, silver 91 and change. Soybeans 996. Corn 452 and wheat 557 down 3, down 1 and a half, down 7. There’s the front page over the weekend. I’m sorry, there’s the featured stories.

The World Gold Council released a report discussing gold reaching 3000 in record time and calling for perhaps a regression to the mean in terms of momentum. We, we know where that’s coming from. It’s actually a pretty good report. There’s some nice statistics there and we think that that’s the basis for some trades that Goldman Sachs is recommending to clients. Now we might talk about that tomorrow. Partnet Stocks are very vulnerable to April 2nd. Bonds and gold should perform best. You wouldn’t know it from today’s behavior so far, but that’s where he stands. Although he’s not saying that a big sell off is coming, he is saying that stocks are very vulnerable for the April 2 tariff deadline.

Founders, clients, CTAs and macro all, all watching April 2. Now, we think that’s a sign of a kind of a signpost on the way to Basel 3 on July 1. So a little bit pause. Gold is proxy. Where’s gold headed and what does it mean for my 401k? That’s a free post we put out specifically for you to give family members Easter Passover, whatever. When they start saying what’s going on with gold, just tandem, that, you know, it’ll be, it’ll be, it won’t be mainstream media, but it won’t be like incredibly obscure stuff. They’ll be able to understand that.

All right, technical analysis. Now, we will give levels once in a while, but when we do our own work, we give levels. So first of all, here’s our bias. Pre April 2, buy dips, sell strength. Post April 2, sell dips, buy strength. Meaning if you’re a macro discretionary trader or someone who thinks like one, you’re buying dips in anticipation of a spike as we approach April 2nd. And you’re selling strength because, hey, you’re going to take some profits when the market rallies, especially when you have profits going back to, say, March of 2024. Post April 2nd.

If whatever happens is bearish for gold. While people are going to be selling dips, that’ll be CTAs, right? And then CTAs will be buying strength. So CTAs dominate the trade immediately after an event and macro discretionary dominates the trade before an event. Now, this is all within a range. It’s not like the end of the world or the beginning of infinite pricing, although it could be some levels between 2988 and 3000. That’s unfilled buying. And we think that buying is macro discretionary. That still has more to buy and they’re not chasing it right now. Above 30, 40, we’re going to have new CTA buying.

So you could call that a reignition of momentum and selling. We don’t really see any selling until after April 2, especially with stocks up. Silver should catch fire if this continues. I mean, copper’s up, stocks are up. All right, let’s take a look at that chart. So what I just described in chart form, the yellow rectangle That’s a buy zone. It doesn’t really show up as obvious on a daily. You can see it on an intraday. That’s where there’s unfilled buying, unfinished buying. Above this yellow line here, we think there’s going to be a reignition of momentum, meaning the high won’t hold if we get above 30, 40.

That’s what it looks like right now. We only get concerned below 29. It’s like 29, 42. Okay. By concerned, I mean it shouldn’t get below there before April 2nd, and it certainly shouldn’t get below there, stay below there before July 1st. This is all trend line type of stuff I’m looking at. Okay, next, silver between 3230 and 3194, there is buying similar to what we’re talking about in gold. There is some selling at 3380. But above 3380, the recent high of 35 should not hold. Right. The only thing that, that I have, that I’m concerned about only because we’re close to it is that because we have those measured moves that I talk about.

And A close below 3,294 negates the measured move that has been for me, predicting or implying $35. So let me, let me show you that. So there’s a zoom up, a zoom in of that. There’s the measure move. It goes from here to here. Right. There’s one of those V’s, right. And above here, I said $35 should happen. Well, we got to, you know, 34, 30, 34, 20. This is on spot and it pulled back. It may be. It is a healthy pullback when you look at it this way. But on my measured move concept, it is not.

So, for example, if we break here, if we break here and settle below here, it’s a daily chart. I would be looking for the market to go as low as. I’m not predicting it as low as here. The point is, if we get below here, my measured move is technically negated. Could it go back up? Of course it could, because this, this structure here is still obviously in play. And this structure here would still be in play if the market goes below here and holds and comes back up. Right just in my little V is not holding.

Those hold a lot more in gold. But there are new phenomena in silver. We think that it’s a growing comment on momentum in silver. So speaking of momentum, we’ll get to Michael Oliver now. All right, so I’m going to throw a couple Quotes at you from his report. And let’s make sure I’m recording, I am recording the subtitles. They’re mine. My interpretations of what he wrote. Gold Weekly. New highs in price equal new momentum. So making new highs means acceleration potentially. So let’s, let’s read his quote first. Closing out. This went out Sunday, closing out this week at 3055.

Now he’s in futures. All right, so I’m giving you spot prices. We’ll go to the futures in a second. Closing out this week at 3055 would clear the April peak. Weekly closing readings on momentum. Lower horizontal. That’s this chart he has here. Or trading Intra Week to 3085 would take out the prior intra week and almost identical flat highs. These trigger levels are by no means primary, but signal levels. Our last major upside trend resumption by level was back in March of last year. So there’s, there’s a lot of meat in that paragraph. So I want to, I want to break it down by sentence for you so you can get the most out of it.

Right. We’re looking at April futures. Right. So I guess June, right? It’ll be April. I think it’s still April for him. He might not have rotated over to June, but let’s assume it’s April. I can check later on. All right, so here we go. If the week closes above 30:55, that would re. Engage momentum that’s already in place since March of 24. If it trades above 3085 intra week, well then you should just be long assuming that It’ll close above 3055. Same similar signal. Different signal. Different, different, similar signal, different time frames. All right, it would take out the prior intra week, almost identical flat highs.

All right, we’re going to draw, we’re going to show you that in a chart in a second. These trigger levels are by no means primary, but signal levels, okay, they’re a sign. This is my interpretation. The signal that he got was in March of 24, which is very similar to when Macro D came in and very similar to when we noticed something really weird going on. This is when the bullying bank started to get running in a big way. This is when we started actually seeing press reports, not pressure. It’s news stories by people, respectable writers that were saying, well you know, China’s buying, you know.

All right, so back to, back to this. So if these numbers were to hit 30:55, 30:85, this is not a new signal. This is a continuation of a signal that’s there well, does, what’s the difference for you? Well, difference for you is zero if you’re trading short term. If you’re trading long term, just know that it’s a confirmation of something that’s been going on. So how much longer it can go on is a different story because these things have a, have a lifespan. Okay, so here’s his chart. I’m going to bring up a similar chart later on, but here’s his chart.

This is a momentum chart. Right. So that’s his proprietary stuff, how he looks at it. And so let me say this properly. He’s adjusting price action for momentum. So when you adjust price action for momentum, you see that you’re not getting new highs. You know, here’s March of 24, here’s October called November of October, November of 24th. And here’s now, so you see three of the same price. You say, well that’s not new highs. No, that’s because he’s adjusting price for momentum. When you adjust price for momentum, you see that the momentum peaks and backs off.

Peaks and backs off. Right. And so we’re in the middle of, we’re in the middle. We’ve, we’ve, we have a flat top in short term momentum. Again, my interpretation, you’d have to ask him flat top and short term momentum, maybe it’s intermediate term. That’s, I’m not really sure. It’s three quarter average. So he might be looking at short term numbers to reconfirm longer term signals. So if we get above his two prices, 3055 and 3085, whether it be on a weekly or a daily trade, you’re going to see this signal continue that he’s gotten for a long period of time.

So I think the helpful part of this chart is on a momentum basis, the market breeds up and down, up and down, up and down. Now these last two are new highs. New high, new high, new high. Right. But it’s not showing on a momentum basis. So price follows momentum. Right. You know, using his discipline and yeah, there’s his chart. Now I want to go through this and I want to, I want to explain a little bit of momentum versus other things that you can look at that don’t compare, but at least explain what he’s talking about for a normal person with momentum versus price.

All right, so gold intra week, little to show for quoting him. MSA momentum oscillators are now old in terms of the number of downside days and have reached normal low level readings. We give the sellers through Monday to prove Their stuff or this pullback, a one day phenomenon for them is probably over. Okay, when I say to you sideways is bullish, that’s what I’m saying. Okay, so if the market makes a low and then goes sideways in the past that would be what we call the marble drop sideways, low, slow, sideways, and then roll off the table.

Now it’s down sideways, downside, momentum goes away and then the market goes back up. So sideways is bullish. So we say if he is right, the swing low may be in the rally. The swing low and then the resumption. Silver, we’re going to get. I want to talk about what we use. We use volatility, he uses momentum. But there’s another indicator out there that’s really not easy to find. But we have it called a demarc sequential. And no, it doesn’t measure momentum. It does show how momentum manifests when Michael’s numbers are right. So when I see something that happens, I go, oh, Michael’s momentum indicator probably also turned up.

But it’s an, it’s a look back measure. All right, so Silver, downside, momentum, bottoming. This is him talking, right? Right now there is a dual set of price highs at 35. The prior peak was at the same level back in October. This is, he’s in May now this is the May sil. That’s not the way price usually tops. If we see it for a third time back at 35, expect the lid to come off. Okay, there are three things in here I want to mention. Momentum peaked the last time we were at 35 and it peaked again.

So. But that’s not the way price usually tops. Price usually tops in a bull market by, you know, a spike high and then down. But rolling tops, distribution tops don’t happen on such a short term basis. So that’s not the way price usually tops. If we see it for a third time, call it a triple top. Back above 35, expect the lid to come off. Now what are the other two things that I wanted to say about that that I thought were interesting at. Okay, I know, I know. It’s funny that he says, he says, I’m going to actually add a phrase.

I’m going to correct him. He’ll get the joke right. Silver topping at 35 and then backing off, saying it in the way I would say it. It didn’t really back off the way it should. The market didn’t really make a top the way it should. It did not signal that the market was done its upside move. And then he says, that’s not the way price usually tops. And I want to say, and I know he’s not a conspiracy theorist, but I want to say, well, that’s because historically that was always the way price usually tops in silver short term.

Because it never really. It never really rallied. It never really got to move anyway. It was funnier in my head. If we see it for a third time back above 35, expect the lid to come off. So for different reasons, he’s saying what we’ve been saying. We think the markets are 35. 30, 39 is not a problem, but it has to get to 35. Right. I mean, you saw my measured move thing. If it doesn’t get to 35, then for me, for me, sideways makes me nervous. For him, I think sideways is bullish. But in silver, sideways makes me nervous.

All right, so here’s his levels on Monday. Again, we’re talking about May Silver, right? 3,354 trades on Monday. That equals momentum resistance broken. That has happened. So the downside. Momentum resistance. I think that’s what he means. Oh, resistance, Right. I wrote those words. Right. So the downside in terms of momentum is done at least short term. If we get above 3354, which you have if.3378 trades on Monday, downside, pre. This is my words downside. Price action is likely closed out. Okay, so before I get to my little chart there, I’ll show you what, what he’s talking about in silver.

He’s, He’s a silver futures. Right? So we’ll go to silver features. It’s at the bottom of my screen so you can see his prices. Let me just zoom in a little bit for you. Right. We’re trading 3374. So despite the market being well off its recent highs. Right. Despite my nervousness that my structure is my, my measure move, structure is in danger of being broken on spot. I look at it on spot, right? He’s saying that despite this weekly sell off this momentum lower, the lower momentum, where the capped upside momentum is already tired, the market should be a lot lower, given the move in momentum lower.

So the market has really. It’s kind of like the market is pushing on a wall and it’s not getting there. Where that wall is, we don’t know. But it would seem technically it’s in this area which is pretty much coinciding with on spot. My measured move thing. Now we’re above his first level, right. And we’re knocking at the door of his Second level. So I want you to think of it this way. That’s a weekly. Let’s go to a daily. I want you to think of it this way. If we get above his level, I was like, was it 3384? Hold on, let’s find out.

Let’s get it exact for you guys here. 3378, right? If we get above 3378, you know we’re like $0.03 away from it, right? We get above this area here. He’s saying that the downside momentum, while the downside momentum is stopped or the upside momentum is safe again. When the market got above 3358. Okay, if the market gets above 3378, the downside price action. This is me paraphrasing him. The downside price action should be over. So if you’re bullish, 3,378, the trades above that. I would, this is what I would do. I would get long and then I would find a stop out to make me safe.

Whether it’s the low of this day on Friday or whether it’s the close of this day on Friday or whether it’s some intraday signal. That’s it. He’s saying that the price action is probably negated to the downside and the momentum which led it was already negated. So we could go sideways or we can have a quick spike and then go sideways or we could just have a spike. So the move would be to get long above 3,378 on looks like May futures and then from there you trade the structure going up. So if you’re, if you want to do it for a simple technician’s point of view, here’s your daily trend line.

1, 2, 3. Right here. I’ll draw it for you. I’m not going to draw it. I’m too busy with this. So we’ve got three lines here, right? Well, if we break this trend line, then his levels have been renegaded. But he’s saying this is a safe momentum, tells him this is a safe trend line to buy in silver touching on gold for one more thing. Where is that? There it is. Gold’s really the same thing, you know, like not this trend line, but it’s that trend line. So here we are, I think. What’s the expression he said nothing to show for it.

So here we are, Thursday and Friday. Essentially, I think on his momentum structure, you’ve got three days where momentum is weaker. Weaker even though made a new high weaker, weaker Right. And the, and the, the bears, to paraphrase him, have nothing to show for it. And so that’s good. Which brings us to the momentum concept and how to understand that for people that aren’t that familiar with it. All right, so this chart here, this is a gold weekly chart. There’s something called the Tom DeMarc sequential. He has one that goes out to 13. Now we’re using the one that goes out to nine.

All I want you to focus on for this conversation is the pink eights and the red nine. So eight, nine signal a top, not necessarily top momentum, but a top. Right? So overbought, right. So when the market. And see this line here? This is March. This is March right there. See my cursor right there? That’s March. That’s when the whole thing changed. Right? So watch. Think about momentum before March and 8 and 9 meant a long sideways move lower or it’s an 8, 9 or a steep and lower move. Right? 8 and 9, steep and lower move.

But it’s not as big, but it’s pretty steep. Right? Eight, nine long. So it took a long time to go from oversold to buy it again. So there’s three nine to eight, nine in green and yellow. That’s the, that’s the buy side, right? So look at these lines. Look at how long and how steep the lines are. Long and steep, long and long and steep. You know, steep but not too long. Long and steep March, his momentum signal trips. Right. And you know, something tripped for us as well. And now you have eight and nine. The market is clearly overbought.

So think about what he says. The momentum is a little overbought and you have shallow and sideways. The market is clearly overbought. Shallow and sideways. Right. Very small debt. Right? Eight, nine. So we’ve gone from eight nines on my system causing a 10 to 30 day sideways or lower move to eight nines on my system causing A one to three day measure lower. And that’s on a weekly, on a daily. It kind of manifests this way. We discussed this over the weekend, but we also discussed it. Randy brought up something. I talk about V shaped bottoms on the Dallas.

Like this is crazy. You don’t see that gold. You don’t see that. Usually you see the V shape and the stop. Right? Well, now we’re getting V shape and higher. So what we’ve noticed or what Randy actually put. I noticed the V’s. Right. Well, Randy’s noticed that if you want to look at it from a, from a, a quant From a regression, from a, a systems analysis. Seven days up, two days back, seven days up, two days back. It looks like that. So seven days up, two days back. So how do you trade that? Do you buy the second day? No, you don’t do that, do you, do you sell the first day down? No, you don’t do that.

You wait for the second or third day lower and then you say I look for a signal to buy. Right. So seven day, I’m making a number of seven days up, two days back, seven days up, five days back, you know, 24 days up, two days back, two days up, two days back. So you get into things like this, you get into again, this is Randy who noticed as you probably studied like, as well, you get things like four days up, one day sideways. The point is when the market retraces, no matter how big the retracement, Whether it be $1 or $1,000, it’s two to three to four days of retracement.

So look, big red candle, big red candle. Here’s one that’s, you know, this is, this is, you know, four red candles. But there’s really not a lot of these. Right. So it’s, it’s basically two days and sideways. Higher. Two days and sideways. And then it went lower again. We’re in the middle of when you have events coming up. This is a reflection of there are buyers in the market who are impatient so they’ll only wait two days. The first day they buy the dip and the second day they say, well I don’t want to wait anymore.

They start to chase it higher and who’s been doing that for the last month? Bullion banks. This is bullion banks saying I’m not going to let it go any lower. What have we been saying for the last year? Bullion banks. The floor has been raised. Bullion banks have not competing buyers against them and because of that, Tom, they’re just going to be a little bit forced to buy sooner than they would normally do that. Okay, moving on. I’ve spent enough time on that. There we go. Market recap. The Dow and The S&P 500 on Friday ended nearly unchanged recovering from earlier lows following President Donald Trump’s comments on tariff reprieve.

The benchmark 10 year treasury yield rose but traded in a tight range on tariff and economic concerns. The dollar gained, putting pressure on gold prices. Oil edged up as fresh Iran sanctions and latest output plan from the OPEC raised supply concerns. There’s the market news. We have those full stories at the bottom I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purpose.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching.
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