Summary
Transcript
My plan is about saying that when you invest in small businesses, you invest in the middle class, and you strengthen America’s economy. Small businesses are part of the backbone of America’s economy. But pardon me Madam Vice President, the question was how are you going to pay for it? Well one of the things I’m going to make sure that the richest among us who can afford it pay their fair share in taxes. It is not right that teachers and nurses and firefighters are paying a higher tax rate than billionaires and the biggest corporations.
And I plan on making that fair. But we’re dealing with the real world here. But the real world includes… How are you going to get this through Congress? You know, when you talk quietly with a lot of folks in Congress, they know exactly what I’m saying. Their constituents are those firefighters and teachers and nurses. In other words, I’ve got no flipping clue. As you can see, the Kamala interview train wreck tour continued over the weekend. And now CNN is sounding the alarm. And it gets even worse. We’ve now got new polling coming out of two swing counties that have predicted the winner in the last six presidential elections in a row.
We’ve got the latest. You’re going to absolutely love it. Hey gang, it’s me, Dr. Steve, your Patriot professor here to help you stay sane in these insane times. So you know what to do. Make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button before we dive in here gang. Obviously Americans are tired and frustrated by a stalling economy, inflation, endless wars, and the relentless assault on our values. But thankfully there’s companies like Patriot Mobile that still believe in America and our constitution. I’m proud to partner with Patriot Mobile because they’re on the front lines fighting for the first and second amendments, sanctity of life, and our military and first responder heroes.
Take a stand for conservative causes and put America first by switching to Patriot Mobile today. You’ll get the same nationwide coverage as the big providers because Patriot Mobile operates across all three major networks. Plus they back their service with a coverage guarantee. Their 100% US based customer service team will find the best plan for your needs. Keep your phone or upgrade. Go to PatriotMobile.com slash Turley Talks or call 972 Patriot. That’s 972 Patriot right now. Get a free month when you use the offer code Turley Talks. Don’t get fooled by other providers pretending to share your values or have the same coverage.
They don’t and they can’t join me. Switch to America’s only Christian conservative mobile provider Patriot Mobile. CNN is frankly starting to freak out here as Mark Mitchell over at Ras Mus and Caesar. We’re starting to see a loser narrative emerge where networks are trying to position themselves as the ones who called Kamala’s loss early and are therefore the most trustworthy. Here is their chief polling analyst Harry Enten on Kamala’s dwindling chances in November. 28% of Americans think the US is on the right track and I want you to put that in a perspective right.
When does the average when the incumbent party loses the election. Look at that. It’s just 25%. That looks a heck of a lot like that 28% right that currently think the country is on the right track. When the White House party wins i.e Kamala Harris’s party the Democrats 42% on average think that the country is on the right track. This 25% looks a lot more like 28%. It doesn’t look anything like this 42%. This to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’s campaign. The bottom line is it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.
Yeah those are some brutal numbers and and it’s one of the key reasons why Kamala has been polling so disastrously in 2024. Again we can never ever lose sight of the fact that no matter what poll you’re looking at doesn’t matter national poll or a state poll a swing state poll or even a poll from an otherwise reliably blue state like New York or Jersey or Virginia it doesn’t matter what poll you’re looking at they all show the exact same thing. Trump has never been stronger than he is right now and the Democrat has never been weaker than they are right now against him.
Kamala is polling with single digit leads in states that Biden and Hillary won by double digits and what Harry Enten just showed there is a big part of the reason voters don’t trust this administration and they don’t like its economic and immigration policies period bottom line and Kamala is simply unable to unhook herself from being blamed as part of the problem rather than being seen as a solution and so it’s no wonder that the warning signs surrounding her campaign are popping up everywhere even in my own backyard we talked about this on our live stream Friday broadcast last week but the Philadelphia Inquirer just reported that Democrats are struggling even in the city of Philadelphia and they’re struggling among particularly Latino working class districts and what’s so interesting here is that this trend toward defecting to Trump among the Latino working class it’s been going on and filling out for the last few years we actually saw it in 2020 when Biden actually performed worse than Hillary in 41 of Philadelphia’s 66 political wards and what the Inquirer realized here is that working class non-college grad voters appear to be de-aligning themselves away from the Democrats and it’s a trend that’s happening across all racial groups blacks whites hispanics.
but again particularly most pronounced among large majority Latino neighborhoods that saw a significant uptick in ballots cast for Trump in 2020 and that trend that uptick is only growing for 2024 which is of course another alarm bell for Kamala but one of my favorites is this one talk about a five alarm fire this is from the daily wire they just published an exclusive poll of two swing counties in Pennsylvania that have predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 2008 I don’t know if you know this but there there are two swing counties in Pennsylvania that have together forecasted the election winner in the last six elections in a row and these two counties are Erie and Northampton we’ve talked about this before they predict both the winner of Pennsylvania and the winner of the electoral college as a whole according to the latest polling Trump is beating Harris 49 to 48 in those two counties and he’s absolutely running away with it.
on the issues he’s leading by 15 on the border and immigration he’s leading by seven on the cost of living six on the economy six on crime but data analyst Seth Keshall has actually run the numbers in these two bellwether counties and he sees Trump leading there by at least five so the one-point lead that the signal poll that the daily wire just published that show that is suggestive of a much much bigger lead in actuality Keshall is a former intelligence analyst he’s great with data and what he did recently is he ran the numbers of both iris and Northhampton’s voter registration trends and then compared them to their election outcomes that again what’s really neat about this kind of analysis is that it’s dealing with actual elections right it’s not a poll because we don’t know who’s going to show up you know polls just give you a sense of what the data set that these guys focused on these focus groups or whatever gave us this what what what he’s doing here.
Keshall’s doing here is he’s actually drawing from how people voted with actual registration voter trends so let’s let’s start with the voter registration trends because these are interesting so in Erie back in 2008 registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by almost 40,000 just over 39,000 it was a 21-point lead in registration but then notice the column in the blue that’s how much the Democrat won by so Obama won Erie County with just over 25,000 votes so notice the discrepancy there there’s 39,000 registered Democrats but only 25,000 voted for Obama now that’s going to be absolutely key because both Erie and Northampton do that every single election they always vote to the right of their voter Democrat registration advantage so if you go to the column all the way to the right you’ll see an average out total of all the elections on average Erie votes 17,754 votes to the right of their Democrat registration and Northampton averages 19,683 votes to the right of their Democrat registration but as Seth points out in the past two elections in 2016-2020 Trump bested those average swings to the right Trump averaged 27,496 votes to the right in Erie and 25,452 votes to the right in Northampton so if that’s the average swing to Trump in both
Erie and Northampton then the only question that remains is what is the current Democrat registration number for 2024 and the answer is gang it’s the lowest it’s ever been it’s the lowest it has ever been it’s currently just 10,000 in Erie I mean seriously think about that the Democrat advantage has gone from 40,000 in 2008 to now barely just 10,000 and it’s almost as bad in Northampton the Democrats have a 12,000 voter registration advantage and so based solely on the numbers based solely on the data in terms of the average swing to Trump in these two counties if we use that average Trump is poised to win Erie by anywhere from six to thirteen points and he’s poised to win Northampton anywhere from four to eight points so even if we just took their average swing in general to the right he wins or if we were to take Trump’s unique average from 2016-2020 he wins by even more so this poll that came out that shows Trump with a small lead may be a harbinger of what’s to come which is an absolute electoral blowout
[tr:trw].