So what happens if China actually invades Taiwan? Ever since Biden’s disastrous troop withdrawal in Afghanistan, Chinese media like the Global Times have warned Taiwan in no uncertain terms that should war break out in the straits, the island’s defenses would collapse in mere hours and the U.S. military, weakened by liberal incompetence and mismanagement, simply won’t come to help. But what would that actually look like? The Daily Mail just featured a graphic extravaganza on what it would look like if China invaded Taiwan. It was a stunning War Games deep dive into how China could pull it off and it was a stark reminder of how we are truly living in the midst of a new multipolar world with China and Russia as very serious military competitors.

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Book a free consultation with Alex to learn more by clicking on that link below or by visiting alexalberon.com forward slash Turley. So how would China pull off a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? Well, according to the Daily Mail’s war games, it would all start with a Chinese blockade of the island. The Chinese navy would begin by deploying a massive fleet of cruisers, frigates, and destroyers to besiege Taiwan’s eastern coast surrounding the island and cutting it off from US supply chains. The ships and the missiles they carry would act as air defense barriers shooting down any American aircraft that gets too close to the island and any incoming American missiles aimed at Chinese landing ships or troops.

An entire fleet of Chinese submarines would deploy even further east using stealth and torpedoes to stop any US battleships or aircraft carriers from approaching Taiwan or trying to break the Chinese blockade. Then, according to this analysis from the Daily Mail, we would see a shock and awe campaign. The Chinese would launch a huge decapitation strike targeting every airfield and port in Taiwan with the aim of destroying all aircraft, ships, radar, air defenses, command posts, you name it. And here, most controversially, the war games predict that Chinese missiles would also target US bases in Japan and Guam in order to thwart the US from coming to Taiwan’s aid.

Now, in war games, the Daily Mail informs us that Taiwan’s entire navy and all but a few of its fighters would be completely destroyed during this stage of the battle because of the sheer number of missiles that China had at its disposal. Of course, the striking of US air bases in Japan alone would immediately spark World War III. But next, China would seize the skies and establish total air dominance. Chinese jets would swarm the skies over Taiwan aiming to achieve total air superiority by shooting down any remaining Taiwanese jets and blowing up air defense missile batteries.

This would allow Chinese fighters, bombers, and plane transports to operate freely in transporting troops to Taiwan and bombing Taiwanese ground forces. The biggest threat, according to the war games scenario, the biggest threat to Chinese aircraft would come from Taiwan’s ground-based air defense missiles as well as shoulder-mounted missiles that individual troops could carry. Also, American bombers could still launch missiles at Chinese ships and troops from a distance. But with all of that, then the invasion. Dozens upon dozens of ships carrying hundreds of thousands of Chinese sail across the Taiwan Strait to land. The Daily Mail notes that the number of landing sites is actually limited because of the many steep cliffs which cover most of the eastern shore.

The Chinese will most likely opt for a handful of beaches in the west and in the south. The sea landing would be accompanied by a mass number of paratroopers dropping from planes and a handful of long-range helicopters which land troops on the west coast. And then, once having established control over the cities in the south, Chinese troops would then begin the long and slow process of fighting their way north ultimately to Taipei. Taiwan’s west coast is heavily urban and densely populated and so the war games predict very fierce and costly street-to-street battles with massive military and civilian casualties.

The humanitarian crisis would obviously, of course, be horrific. But once the capital city of Taipei is captured, China would declare victory and announce the full annexation of Taiwan into mainland China. Now, needless to say, this is obviously a very detailed and very dramatic scenario and I do think at least one very important dimension of the conflict was actually left out. There are reports that if China invades, that invasion would include a massive cybersecurity attack on us, on the United States, on our vulnerable infrastructure to at least partly shut down our retaliation capabilities.

At a recent security conference in Munich, the FBI director made it absolutely clear that the cyber threat posed by the Chinese government is absolutely massive. With our 3,300 utilities and sprawling web of 5.5 million miles of distribution lines, the United States is particularly vulnerable to cyber incursions. One of the groups, perhaps the most pernicious, is a Chinese group known as Volt Typhoon. They’re a CCP hacking group which the United States Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency notes is actually lurking even now in critical infrastructure across the country. And the concern here is that this cybersecurity breach would be part of China’s overall offensive against Taiwan were they to launch one.

So there actually is a whole other front in this war that could open up in this potential conflict. Now all of that said, the good news is I don’t think China is going to embark on something like this. As you saw, the urban warfare that invading Taiwan would necessitate would alone dissuade Chinese officials from attempting something like this. And in fairness, China, while it certainly talks tough with regard to Taiwan, no question, China has already signaled that they’re playing the long game here. We have to remember that the second most popular party in Taiwan, the KMT, is actually a pro-China party.

There are also some fringe parties that are also very pro-China in Taiwan. And so Taiwan believes that over time there will be a natural and organic unification, one that requires no military aggression whatsoever. That is, according to Chinese officials, as long as the United States stays out of meddling in the affairs between the two nations. Unfortunately, that’s what the adults in D.C. tend to do best. Metal and mess up. Just ask the Middle East. So while I do believe that China will continue its policy of strategic patience towards Taiwan, let’s hope that our current batch of incompetent leaders in D.C.

don’t end up making this war game scenario a reality. [tr:trw].

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