9.8.24: LT w/ Dr. Elliott: Debt skyrockets Housing BUBBLE Manufacturing is down Silver needed PRAY
Summary
➡ Reagan’s budget director, Stockman, warns of a major real estate correction due to the all-time low affordability of homes. People are spending a high percentage of their wages on mortgage payments, leaving little for other expenses. This situation is causing concern among investors, including Warren Buffett, who recently sold a significant amount of Bank of America stock. Despite these challenges, investments in gold and silver have seen substantial growth, offering a glimmer of hope.
➡ The article discusses the economic struggles faced by low-income Americans, with rising inflation and a decrease in savings rates since 2020. It highlights the increasing reliance on credit cards and debt, leading to a negative savings rate. The article also touches on the fading belief in the American dream, with half of the population feeling it’s unattainable due to poor tax policies and societal issues. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of community support, personal responsibility, and investing wisely, such as in precious metals like silver and gold.
➡ Dr. Elliott and his team are greatly appreciated for their efforts in helping communities globally, especially during these tough times when many are struggling financially. They are recognized for their personal care towards those they assist. There’s also a prayer for their safety as they operate in dangerous areas filled with gangs, asking for divine protection for them.
Transcript
You can have the same conversation I’m having with Doctor Kirk Elliott or somebody on his team. Just click on that link. Welcome back, Doctor Kirk Elliot. You know, glad to have you. No, it’s so good to be with you. Lt. Yeah. So much going on. We’ve had some, some strange, you know, just a strange week. I’ve talked a lot about how President Trump and RFK junior have been basically doing interview after interview to get the word out on what’s been happening with the deep state and what they’re trying to do to destroy America. And it’s been really good and especially with RFK junior joining in.
We talked about this briefly before, but it’s just a huge move for many. And it just brings the hope bubble up a little bit on the political side for many. Well, it does. And, you know, we need hope, right? We need something to look forward to when the foundations around us are eroding. You know, I was, I was just reading through some stuff this week and doing some research and, you know, going back to Monday, it’s like, why is it so important that Trump and RFK junior are wanting to bring hope? Well, because people have lost it, right? I mean, even, even here in Denver, I mean, beautiful weather.
It’s amazing, right? It’s, people are relatively healthy. They hike, they mountain bike, and these woke liberal policies that have brought like armed venezuelan militants in basically gangs from prison and they’re shooting up the streets. I mean, I hear gunshots literally three times in the last two weeks, just randomly at night. I, you know, you hear pop, pop, pop, pop, pop. It’s like, oh, boy, that’s not just one shot, right? That’s like something bad is going on, right? And it’s like, it’s like watching, watching news clips of like, what it must feel like in Israel when there’s drones and missiles being shot off.
And it’s like, this is like a war zone and. Correct. Colorado. What’s that? It’s Colorado you’re talking about, right. Yeah, Denver. So Aurora, which is, I mean, all you have to do is Google any of it, and you’ll see videos of armed militants, you know, commandeering apartment buildings, going door to door at gunpoint, telling people. I mean, just as, like, you know what I would envision, like, old school, hell’s kitchen, you know, New York City, you know, where the mafia is in control. Like, you’re going to pay me the rent or else don’t pay your landlord, right.
And that’s what they’re doing. And so, so then you’ve got, you know, masked people with machine guns, right, with, with, you know, assault rifles and high capacity magazines and, you know, doing what? What? Oh, the left doesn’t want anybody to ever have, but no, these gang members can have them and they’re not doing anything about it because we’re a sanctuary city. It’s like, what, what’s going on, right? And so, so there’s this fear that’s just, like, bubbling not even under the surface anymore. It’s, it’s over the surface. And when you hear gunshots and, and just outside our office two, two weeks ago, we heard like eight gunshots right outside of our window.
And we go down there and there’s somebody laying on the sidewalk, blood coming out of their chest, like, and this is in the middle of the day, in broad daylight at 06:00 at night. And it’s like, what is happening? What is happening in this world? Well, what’s happening is when you allow lawlessness and no morality, no ethics, where, where you criminalize good behavior, almost, right. And bad behavior is almost like, I just look the other way. I mean, that’s what I feel like the world is, is at right now. Yeah. Yeah. It’s crazy. Yeah. When it goes into, on the monetary side, I wonder if this has an effect on our stock market.
I mean, the Dow closing 600 points lower to begin September s and P 500 drops 2%. We’ve got live updates. I mean, sometimes I wonder if that fear bleeds over just to how the stock market plays out or what, what do you think that is going on? In a sense, yes, it does. And in a sense, there’s, there’s bigger issues at play right now. When people are fearful, they’re not going to go out and shop. Right? They’re just going to stay home. They’re going to hunker down. But it’s the, when people are fearful, they automatically pull in the reins and everything, investing and going out and eating.
And you’re fearful about your job, so you’re going to start saving more money or you don’t even have a job. And it’s like, what about wars and rumors of wars? How’s that going to affect my investment portfolio? I mean, fear does things to a person’s psyche that they just don’t, they really just don’t do anything. They just want to sit in cash and sit on the sideline and don’t do anything. So that’s certainly part of it. The other part of what happened on Monday when this report came out was the manufacturing numbers came out and lt, they’re abysmal.
They’re not good. We’re looking at a big economic slowdown when the manufacturing numbers, it’s like if people aren’t buying stuff, there’s no warehouse orders. Right. And so that’s what this number is looking at. It’s like we don’t have any need to manufacture things because the retail sector is not buying it. So that’s where these numbers started to come out. Then what, so this was on Monday. Right. So what are they forward looking to on Friday? Just a couple of days ago, what came out? The job numbers. Right. And so there’s always, this, this has been going on for months, literally month after month after month after month.
Job report comes out by dynamics is great. We beat expectations. We can’t believe it. Everybody. There’s more jobs than we thought there was going to be, right? And so always this happy, cheery message on CNBC and Bloomberg and everything else. And, but the same day, the underlying message, and we’ve talked about this numerous times, of the revised numbers from the month before are also come out. And nobody looks at those revised numbers, which is like, oh, we didn’t actually increase jobs by 140,000. We actually lost like 200,000. It’s like, what, how could they be that far off, right? It’s like, good grief.
So, so there’s nobody looks, this is what I start to look at now. I don’t give a flip about their, their expectations and beating expectations because the number is phony, baloneye. I look at the revised numbers that come a month later because that actually tells a closer reflection of what’s going on. So all of this to say these bad numbers came out, the Dow is down 600. Nvidia was down like 10% that day. It’s like, what, that’s a big deal. When one of the largest cap stocks in the world, it rivals Microsoft and Apple as large, the largest of all companies.
They were down 10% in one day. Not good. Looking forward to the economy. What this tells me, though. Lt is, we’ve heard for months, actually a year, that they’re going to lower interest rates. We’re going to lower interest rates. We’re winning this battle against inflation so we can lower them. No, they haven’t, or else they would have done it already. But now they have to. They can’t go into election with a massive recession. And so. But to me, it’s too little, too late. That’s right. You can’t just lower rates by half a point or whatever they want to do.
Right. And expect that you’re actually going to fix things. When we’ve got this much. It’s like window dressing to me, but it’s a talking point and people are going to think, ooh, wow, cool. They’d lowered interest rates, and that means that the economy is going to be stimulated. They beat this battle against inflation. It’s like, no, they have not. When you lower interest rates and you haven’t won the war against inflation, inflation is going to persist. They’re lowering them because they think it’s going to help speed up the economy. That’s really sluggish. And we’re in a massive recession, but it’s not going to work.
We have too much debt. So it’s going to be a catch 22 scenario. It’s not looking good. And that goes to the economy on the home side. Zero hedge. The bubblicious economy will soon hit another milestone of sorts. $50 trillion mark with respect to the market value of owner occupied residential real estate. Yeah. So this projection forecast was made by David Stockman. So David Stockman was Reagan’s budget director for the United States budget. Right. It’s like, okay, this isn’t, lt’s budget. This isn’t Kirk’s budget. This is, this is a big deal. Right. So what did he say was going to happen? Remember in 2009 when we had the subprime lending bubble? Yeah.
And it collapsed. Stocks, bonds, real estate. You know, it was, it was a bad recession. Well, he said, this is going to be the mother of all real estate corrections. It’s like, oh, my word. What? And this guy looks at source of funds, use of funds, the allocation between different things. Everything the government spends, all that the government brings in. He looks at the budget for the United States and he said, this is bad. This is going to be really bad, because down further in this article, there’s a chart that shows the affordability of homes is at the all time low.
All time low, meaning you have your wages, right, the money that you make every month and the percentage that you actually spend on your mortgage payments is as high as it’s ever been. Literally. People already living hand to mouth, right. They can’t afford to make ends meet. They have to. Most families in America have to make this hard choice of, do we eat or do we go out to eat or should we just, well, we can’t afford to pay our rent or our mortgage. And what’s, you know, so these are these hard choices. That’s the chart right there that shows the percentage of mortgage payments compared to wages is as high as it’s ever been.
Because you go back on that chart to, like, the 1970s and it was kind of like gradually going up. Well, that just means that people are spending a little more. They can still afford it. But then, you know, since then, since, like Covid, it’s gone straight up. It’s like people can’t afford anything, right? And so this is why he thinks when you get to that level of unaffordability, the housing market’s going to collapse. And I would agree with him. This is just math. It’s not rocket science. It’s basic math. People can’t afford to spend because they don’t have any disposable or discretionary income.
Right. Right. So this chart right here, again, this is the one that we’re talking about. You got a red line above it goes up to like 12,000. You got the black line that goes to like, a little bit above 10,000. What is this again? Household mortgage debt, mortgage percentage weight. And so it’s, it’s a function of how much debt you have. What is your mortgage payment compared to your wages? Right. So, so you, you look at that, it’s like, okay, there’s a lot of teal space on that, above it up until about 2020. That means that’s all extra income that you have, right.
That you can spend on something else. But where we are right now, where that those red and black lines are, it’s close to the top, which means we don’t have much income left at the end of every month because most of what we are bringing in is doing what it’s going to pay for your mortgage and housing expenses. I mean, this is just an awful trend moving forward, which is probably why last Friday, not a couple days ago, but the week before Friday, Warren Buffett sold another billion dollars worth of bank of America. Another that puts him up to $6 billion of this one stock that he sold.
Right. What does he think about bank of America that’s going to happen? Well, he doesn’t expect it to do well. That’s why he’s dumping it. Why isn’t it going to do well? Because people can’t afford to live. They can’t even afford their mortgage payments. They’re going to be delinquent on it. It’s going to go into default. Warren Buffett’s not a stupid investor. He’s a very smart one. And he’s seeing the writing on the wall. Lt. And he’s getting out of Dodge. To me, the Warren Buffett watch, right, or whatever you would call it, it’s like a leading indicator to me, it’s like, okay, if he’s getting out of Dodge, he’s one of the wealthiest people in the world, and he, unlike other investors, he doesn’t invest in these companies that have artificial value.
Right. It’s like some tech stocks never made any money, and they sell for these amazingly high valuations. He buys value. He buys things that make money. I mean, it’s his style. And he knows, or else he wouldn’t. He would keep them, that the banking sector is going to get hit pretty hard. That’s right. So I would look at that. But why does he think that? Well, because when you look at everything that’s happening with banks, with under capitalization, with high taxes, with high interest rates, with wages coming down, with. With unemployment skyrocketing, under bidenomics, people start to look differently at how they spend money.
They start to look differently how they invest. Right? So I’ve gotten a bunch of, like, I don’t know, negative comments. I would say people in chat rooms, whatever. Say, Kirk, you always say the golden silver gonna go up, and it didn’t. It look. It went down today, $0.80. It’s like, okay. I mean. So the way that I would answer that is. I hear your concern, but you’re wrong. So I don’t know what else to say. Because if you look back at where silver was four and a half months ago, it was like, 22, and now it’s like 29, all right? Up over 30% in just four months.
You look at where it was a year and a half ago, 1797. It’s now 29. It’s like, man, we’re seeing some massive growth here, right? But I just saw this research paper earlier this week, and of all the asset categories all over the world, right. The things that you could invest in. Guess what’s number two and number three, gold and silver. I mean, they’re number two and number three out of all the different options, right? So it’s like, don’t let. And here’s. This is just human nature, right? And so when people think, oh, silver went down and, you know, I bought it yesterday, and then they tend to complain.
This is human nature, where people tend to look at the negative more than they look at the positive. Right? So, so I just want to let everybody know with the message of hope, that those are inaccurate perceptions of what’s happening in the market. Whether you look at it, what’s happened over the last four or five months versus the last year and a half versus the last three years. I mean, silver’s up a lot. It’s up over 140% over the last four, three and a half. Four years. Right. It’s. It’s really amazing. So. So this is where there’s hope, but where are things continuing to falter, right? And so you look at people’s personal savings rate, right? Which I had shared that chart with you earlier, I.
It looks like somebody fell off a cliff, right? It’s like. And what does that mean? It means people have no money left at the end of the month. It’s like their personal savings rate is like zero, right? It’s like, it’s like people don’t have any savings. In fact, I would say the personal savings rate is negative. You know, you look back to the 1970s and 1980s, and people used to have savings accounts, right? It’s like, who has a savings account now? Because the people use their extra line of credit on their credit cards as savings accounts.
So it’s like, okay, let’s say you had a $30,000 credit line. You only spent 10,000. I mean, look at this chart. That’s ridiculous, right? So if you only have 10,000 that you spent on your credit card, 20,000 left to spend, people say, I’ve got a $20,000 that I can access. It’s like a savings account. It’s like, no, it’s not. It’s debt that you have to pay back, right? But this is the world that we live in, where people are viewing excess credit lines as savings, but it’s not. Lt, it’s debt. And this just tells me that people don’t have enough money to live.
Now, there’s another thing. I mean, I looked at so much stuff this week, I was like, information overload, right? So, so last week there was this number of how many Americans are looking for a job so I was doing this research and the numbers shocked me because I saw this article. 28.4% of everybody in America is now looking for a job. That’s one out of every four. A, they’re not happy with what they’ve got, or b, they don’t have a job at all. But to have one out of four people in America looking for a job tells us one thing about bidenomics.
It doesn’t work right. It tells us another thing about bidenomics is they’re lying to us when they say that there’s so many jobs being created when people are looking and looking and looking and they can’t find one. That’s right. This is a dangerous part of our economy that we’re living in right now. So you had this chart up earlier. Let me go back to this article regarding the health of us consumer. We were talking about two americas. High income consumers are thriving while the low income class has been crushed by inflation since 2022. All these retail names range from dollar general, Lululemon, to evercoming.
Fitch and Ultra Beauty received a mixed reaction this week after making cautious comments. The personal savings rate, this is the one that we were showing earlier, right? This chart, this right here is showing this chart again that we referred to earlier. I see a bunch of lines. But again, can you just take me down that road of what this actually means? Again, you’re going through it pretty quick. So I just want to make sure the audience understands. So just view that as in the past. Like you go back to 2010 or actually, I can’t see it.
It’s a little blurry on my screen. What’s the first line where it spikes? What year is that? 2020. Okay, so 2020. Up until Covid, people actually had a decent savings rate. Now, after Covid, when people had lockdowns, mom and pop stores were closing up, people were losing their jobs. The savings rate came down and down and down and down. Right. So that’s what this is showing us is now. I mean, this is as low as I’ve seen the chart ever. People have a very small amount of their income is in savings, which means they’re not saving.
They’re simply not saving. And why aren’t they saving? It’s not just because interest rates are low and they don’t want to have savings. It’s because they simply don’t have it. They’re spending more money on credit cards, more debt. They’re actually negative in their savings rate because they have more debt than they have income. It’s like this is a problem. This is truly a problem because when people have extinguished their savings accounts and they can’t afford to live on their regular income and now they’re starting to max out their credit cards, there’s nothing left to spend. And that’s where we’re headed in this economy.
So I was thinking of all of this number of people looking for jobs, negative savings rate, housing bubble, about Tiberius, it’s like, Kirk, stop talking about bad news. Right. So, but, but this is a feeling that’s permeating throughout all of America. Lt, so I saw this, this research study this week about the american dream, right? And it’s like, what is it? What is the american dream? Well, you know, you go back to Ellis Island, Statue of Liberty, people were fleeing Europe, right? They wanted religious freedom. They wanted private property rights. They wanted the freedom of speech.
They wanted the ability to work and create, and create not just a good income for their family, but a good retirement. They wanted to create a legacy for future generations, right? This is the american dream. That’s right. Well, I’m going to make a broad brush stroke here, and it’s not necessarily a totally fair statement to make, but most of the people coming across the border right now, that is not the in search of the american dream. It’s in search of, hey, if I can get across the border, I’m going to get free stuff. I mean, hate to be so blunt about it, but that’s how it looks and feels when you have this entitlement dependent state.
And in California, they pass the stupid bill to actually give undocumented people coming across the border $150,000 for their house, right? And if you pay back is optional. It’s like, what if I lived in California? It was my taxpayer dollars paying for some undocumented person to get $150,000 worth of a free house. I would leave that state so fast. It’s like, what? That’s not good. Wise use of tax dollars, right? So you look at this stuff in this poll that was taken is 50%, 50. Half of America no longer believes that the american dream is attainable.
It’s like, this is sad to me because these aren’t people coming across the border thinking is the american. These are us citizens who live here, who no longer think the american dream is attainable. And this is because of bad tax policy. It’s because you walk outside, you’re afraid that you’re going to get shot. You’re seeing video images of Seattle and Minneapolis and now Denver, where there’s gangs going through the city and there’s so much spending on stuff like entitlements and handouts. And I agree that people need a helping hand. From time to time. They do, but that’s the job of the church and the people to give a helping hand, never the job of the government, because then it creates a lifestyle because they don’t want to take it away or else they lose votes.
So it’s all out of whack. And when I see that half of America doesn’t believe that America is what the founding fathers envisioned it to be, and this is the land of property rights and the land to be everything that you wanted to be in Christ and. And work hard, and you could attain an amazing future for you and your family. It’s not there anymore. Lt and that’s the dangerous part in this slippery slope that we’re going down as a society. Yeah. Interesting. Just a sidebar before we close. We’re back watching little house on the prairie from the very beginning, season one with my daughter, my wife, and we just love that tv series.
And it takes you back to a different time where Michael Landon heads out across the country. He plants himself and tries to do it on his own. Then he ends up in a small town, and people work together. And the first couple of, you know, episodes, there he is trying to work hard, get a couple of jobs done. So you put some money in the pocket because, you know, things aren’t working out at home. And he was able to just go down the street. Hey, can I get some help? Yeah, we’ll help you. And then all the men joined together to help him pile up all of the seed for a local market.
You know, one episode after another just shows a community coming together to help each other out. Yeah. Nowhere does it say, write a letter to the government so we can get some money sent to Walnut Grove so everybody can and prosper. Every episode is the men and women working hard in the community to raise their children the best that they can through all the turmoil that they go through episode after episode. They always come through in the end as helping each other. And I just hope and pray that we can get back to that. That type of system.
I believe, even though it’s not reality per se, it’s just a tv show, but it was a sense of what America used to be like. It is. And we can hope and pray that we get to that point. Right. But. But at least, even if we don’t, as a whole, there can still be a remnant that gets to that point. Right. We just have to start to decide, this is how we are going to live. This is how me and my family, we are going to serve the Lord and this is what we’re going to do.
Right? So. So you have to start somewhere. Start with your own individual family and live like that, right. And then hopefully that spreads and it becomes a group think type, type of a philosophy. But if we don’t start, it’s never going to gain momentum, attraction. Right. So people do have to start taking personal responsibility. Um, I was thinking about this this week, right? And somebody asked me like this, you know, icebreaker questions, right? And psych. I was like, what are the things that annoy you the most? It’s like, hmm, no, great. I was like, now what am I going to say? So it’s like, I can’t stand the victim mentality.
I can’t stand it when people don’t take ownership, what they do. And I can’t stand it when people aren’t self aware. Right. It’s like, okay, you shouldn’t have said that out loud kind of a thing. Those things really annoy me. But of those, I think the victim mentality is the worst because people don’t take any ownership for their actions nowadays. Always somebody else’s fault, right. And we have to get rid of that. And so with personal finances, right, this is what we help people with. It’s like, okay, you can’t help it that the government’s doing what they’re going to do.
You can’t help it that things are happening, but what you can help is making a decision to allocate into the right thing at the right time, take advantage of that and just do it. Right. And so that’s what we try to help people with each and every day. That’s right. That’s right. Yep. Silver and gold, very important precious metals. It was even important in little house in the prairie, right. They found gold and they would get excited. So, so it’s always an asset that we should all own and we, and you should start even if you have a little bit of money, to get just involved with Doctor Kirk Elliott and their team.
And really, folks, look at the biblical values of silver and gold. It’s so important in this time when so many people are depending on cash, they’re going into debt and more. And we just learned so much from you, Doctor Elliott. We just so appreciate you guys, your team, for how, you know, you’re helping out communities around this earth and it’s just been absolutely amazing. Well, thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Yeah, let’s close in prayer. Heavenly Father, thank you so much once again for Doctor Kirk Elliot. His team, what you’re doing to use them to guide and direct so many homes, so many lives, one at a time.
Thank you. That they care about the people that call in, just almost on a personal level. And it’s just wonderful to see how you’re using him. And we just ask for their protection also as they’re around a dangerous area that’s been filling up with gangs and more, that somehow, some way that you’d bring in just mighty forces to protect, you know, surround them or protect them every second of the day. And we ask all this in the name of your son, Jesus Christ, our savior. Amen. Amen. Thank you, brother, so much. We’ll talk to you again soon.
Sounds good. Bye.
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