Hey, Ron, who’s driving? Oh, it’s okay. It’s on cruise control. Cruise control just regulates speed. It doesn’t steer. Come again. Hey, guys, Rafi here from The Endgame Investor. And today I wanted to go into two things. First of all, we are very near a major short squeeze in gold. We’re already seeing signs of it happening because open interest has fallen, but price keeps hanging around record highs. And if open interest in gold futures has been falling, while price still remains at all-time highs, that means that shorts, those who short gold sell gold short, which are the bullion banks, they are closing contracts, they are covering their shorts, while price is still at an all-time high.

So, at best, they are breaking even. And if price heads higher here, and they are forced to close more shorts, then they are in a short squeeze. It is not happening in full swing yet, but we’re seeing the seeds of it. And I’m going to show you the comparisons, the other three tops in gold recently since 2020, the triple top that we broke only several months ago, and why the bullion banks are in such trouble right now. And second, I’m going to show you two charts that suggest that we are only months away from the final recession, the final crash, the final bust, whatever you want to call it, it’s going to be serious, it’s going to be extreme, and it’s going to lead to the final money printing round, the final inflationary round, which I believe, in my personal humble opinion, will lead to the end game of the monetary system as we know it.

It couldn’t come at a better time with the world on the verge of World War III, and the United States possibly on the verge of a civil war come November after the elections. And in the end game investor on Substack, I go into the timing a little bit more, specifically a little bit more in depth, and I relay a number measured in weeks that I believe the next recession, the next crash, the next bust will start. Check the link in the description below for that post. It is open to paid subscribers, and on the end game investor for free subscribers, I do go into monetary philosophy once in a while, and I give you a nice little taste of that in the link in the description.

In the second link in the description, I give you a philosophical taste of what I write for free. You can also choose to buy a dirty man safe at the link in the description below and use the code endgame10 for 10% off a checkout, or you can open an account with monetary medals, a link in the description below where you can earn interest on physical gold and silver that you store with them. Anyway, let’s get into this short squeeze stuff. Okay, so you can see the three black rectangles here. This chart is from gold charts are us.

It shows the gold price in blue on top relative to the open interest and gold futures in the bottom here. I think that’s green, but who knows? So we have the first top at, I think it was 2070, 2080, whatever it was exactly, I can’t see here, but the point is when gold hit an all-time high in August 2020 over here, this little thing where my curse is moving around, you can see the open interest fell as that top was hit, which means that there was no short squeeze because if the price is falling while open interest is falling, you can see here I precipitated the price of gold, a sharp fall, it didn’t take that long, but it did spare the short bullion banks any losses as price falls.

When open interest falls, that means that sellers, short sellers are closing into a falling price, which means they are either breaking even or making a little bit of money on their positions. The same thing we see over here, this was March 7th, 2022. Nickel Armageddon, if you remember that when the nickel markets, there was a short squeeze in the nickel markets and all of the commodities complex kind of saw little local highs here. Same thing with gold also, March 7th, 2022. And we hit about the same high that we saw in August 2020, but we saw here a high in open interest.

And then as the high was passed, we saw a fall in open interest just below 600,000 to closer to 600,000. So about 50,000 contracts as the price fell. So there too, there was no short squeeze. And we’re seeing here, this is May 2023, the same top around the same value as August 2020 and March 7th, 2022. We’re seeing it one more time. And this was the triple top in gold that was only recently broken this year. And we see the same thing, but we see even in more extreme situation here where price fell and open interest really fell hard from about 540,000 contracts to looks like 430,000, about 100,000 contracts fell and price fell with it.

So no short squeeze there. Now we’re going to zoom in and see what’s happening. So if we go back here, you can see what was happening more closely on the two-year zoom in of the open interest, which went from about 540,000 to about about 100,000 contracts. As I said before, you can see it more clearly here. This was no short squeeze because price was falling and so was open interest. But now something different is happening. Let’s zoom in and see. So we’re zooming into this part of the chart here where price starts rising and rising with rising open interest over here.

So we’re going to zoom in and we’re going to see that is this. We see in May 2024, this year, we see another all-time high in gold, but still price fell and open interest fell slightly. So still we’re getting closer to a short squeeze there, but not quite yet because open interest is falling with price. So still the shorts are either breaking even or making a little bit of money, but here something different has been happening, especially since July of this year. So we see here another all-time high in gold at around 2,500 just below 2,500 and open interest hits a high here of just under 600,000 contracts.

And yes, the price falls and the open interest falls. So still no short squeeze quite yet there. However, what is happening now is we are wafting or floating very close to all-time highs here. Gold is in a very tight coil right around 2,500 between 2,500 and 2,550 for the last three weeks or so. And we’re seeing what are we seeing? And Chris Marcus pointed this out to me on Twitter or X or whatever the hell it is. So we’re seeing here a gentle fall in open interest from about 530,000 contracts in mid August to now just above 500,000.

So about 25,000 contracts open, 23,000 contracts closed, not open closed. About 23,000 contracts have closed and still the price has not moved. So if we are going to see a short squeeze, what we should see is a fall in open interest below 500,000 contracts and a rise in the price. That could happen any day, especially if there’s some kind of a panic. So no, we’re not seeing the short squeeze yet, but we are very close to it. But if you broaden it out and you count from July to now, in open interest, I put the trend line here from 600,000 contracts and now we’re down to 507.

So that’s about 90,000 contracts. And from then, since then, prices only moved higher. From here, the top was around just below 2,500. Now we’re at 2520, 2530 today. We moved up a little bit today. So this chart is slightly out of date. This point is we’re getting close to what looks like a short squeeze. Doesn’t mean it’s going to be the end. There have been short squeezes in the gold market before, especially at the end in 2011 at the end of the last bull market. Yes, getting close to a gold short squeeze here.

This is on the timing. This is the basic chart about timing. And this is not very complicated to understand. This is the Fed funds rate. This is the rate that the Fed directly controls. When there’s a rate cut, this is the rate they’re cutting. When there’s a rate hike, this is the rate they’re hiking. So we see from since the late 80s to 2008, we’re going to count the months from when rate cuts began to when recession happens. Why does this happen? Because the Fed starts cutting rates when it sees that a recession or their style of recession or bust or whatever you want to call it is ahead because we’re seeing weakening signs in the economy.

So they start cutting rates ahead of time, always aiming for a soft landing, which never, ever comes. Sometimes there’s the appearance of a soft landing, but it never actually happens because eventually there’s a hard landing in these little gray areas over here, which are called recessions. So in the 1980s, late 1980s to 1990, there were 14 months between the first rate cut and the official recession of 1990, 1991. In 2000, there were four months between the first rate cut over here and the first sign of official recession in 2001. 2007, 2008 was five months from the beginning of the rate cutting cycle, from the first rate cut into the official beginning of the recession as measured by their Keynesian metrics.

That was only five months. So 14 months, four months, five months. Now we’re going to go into what’s happening now, overlap a little bit. You can see here four months to five months as before in the previous chart. In 2019 to March 2020, it was seven months. We got four months, five months, seven months. It is widely believed and expected that the Fed will cut either a quarter point or half a point, meaning 25 basis points or 50 basis points. In the next week, September 17th, 18th is the next federal open market committee meeting, FOMC meeting.

So that’s eight days away or seven days away, depending on when you are watching this video. So then the next rate cutting cycle will begin in seven or eight days. And from then we should have between four and seven months until the beginning of the next session could be even earlier than that. And I believe that the next recession, crash, depression, whatever it ends up being, is going to lead once again to the final inflationary round of printing, which is going to be accompanied by a clog in the monetary plumbing in the repo market.

I highly believe. And during that final crunch is going to be your last opportunity to buy gold and silver with dollars. In my estimation, I don’t think that physical gold and silver will be much cheaper than it is now because premiums always rise spectacularly in situations like that. But if you’re dealing with derivatives and you do trade ETFs, then that will be your last opportunity to get them at a decent price in terms of dollars. And after that, we’ll head into the end game, which should be maybe around elections, maybe a few months after that.

But we’re in the month’s timeframe now. And if you want to check out the end game investor, I use other metrics related to the amount of reserves in the system versus the amount of repos that are being traded every night. Check the link in the description below if you’re interested in that. And you can also support me on Patreon for as little as $3 a month for a religious perspective on money, government, and economics. The next video that I’m putting up today for patrons is the usefulness of the NPCs, the non-playable characters of society.

You can call them sheeple, you can call them NPCs. They do have a use and I will show a story from the Bible that shows what their use is and why they are important. This is Rafi the end game investor. And I’ll see you guys next week or this week. We’ll see how much time I have to make another video. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.