Vince Lanci: Another Volatile Night For Gold Silver Copper | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ Arcadia Economics talks about how copper, silver, and gold are reaching record highs due to various factors such as supply shortages, hedge fund speculation, and increased demand from China and green energy sectors. Copper is also benefiting from a short squeeze on the COMEX. Gold’s rise is attributed to the return of usual drivers like real 10-year treasury yields. Analysts predict that gold could reach $2,500 if current trends continue.

Transcript

Copper, silver, and gold, the leading lights of the base and precious metals arenas, are in what Lloyd Smith puts as history making mode, as both power to record highs in early Monday trading. Here’s a handful of things to watch in what can be a compelling week. Copper, everybody’s favorite base metal, is benefiting from the fallout from a dramatic short squeeze on the COMEX. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince.

Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy. And in today’s morning meeting, we’re going to discuss gold, silver, and copper via charts. We’ll take a look at what’s driving these markets and what some possible price levels are for future behavior. We’ll also be looking at some of the news over the weekend that may have driven the continuation of last week’s tarred rallies. And well, let’s start with the markets first. The dollar is up 2 at $104.51. Ten-year yields are $442. Unchanged, essentially, S&P $553.12, up 7. The VIX is up $12.20. I’m sorry, the VIX is $12.20, up 22 basis points.

Gold is $24.35, up $21, up almost a percentage point. It was, it did make new all-time highs like 20, 24.50 and higher. Silver, $31.76, up 27 cents, up almost a percentage point. Copper, $5.05, up a little over one cent at up 24 basis points. Gold, silver, we’ll talk about that today. GDX, I’m going to put this up for you. All right, GDX settled at $36.87. It’s called right now at $37.35. And the silver is not trading yet. WTI down $18.79, natural gas, $2.57, up four cents. Bitcoin up $1,067, $2.76, and Ethereum, $31.10, possibly escape velocity from the $3,000 area.

Platinum, palladium mixed, palladium up six at $10.14 and platinum down almost four at $10.76. We’re looking at those two, looking at that pair now. All metals are being driven higher. So, platinum will be stronger if the market continues on the current path it’s on. And from time to time, you’ll see palladium play a little catch-up as the correlation remains robust because people are trading both of these. Grains are all stronger, soybean $12.22, up five and change, corn $4.44, up three, and wheat $6.74, spot $20, up what? $18, okay. Wow, wheat’s like silver now, up almost 3%.

Okay, let’s get going. All right, so today we’ll talk about silver, gold, and silver charts. Again, gold evaluation is a process, not an event, and we’re in that revaluation process right now. Today’s premium we’ll be talking about, we’ll be showing you some charts, why are copper prices rising from Apollo management? They manage billions of dollars and probably someone in your family’s retirement money is with Apollo. And in the commentary, we’ll talk about some charts here today. Here’s the homepage. Over the weekend, we put out this report. We might talk about this during the week.

Beyond $24.60, gold can hit $27.50 by US election. Analysts are catching on to the whole election concept. The election is the path for gold. People are going to be trading gold because of that. Of course, there’s some nice charts about Russia in there as well. Also, we have one of the stories over the weekend, Russia seized over 700 million euros of G7 assets. So it’s kind of a tit for tat situation now in the seized asset world. All right, premium markets, why are copper prices going up? All right, so the chart package, which is very complete, I should say, has some clean charts of supply shortages, hedge fund speculation, and physical demand, China demand, AI demand, and green energy demand.

There are several interesting charts in here. One of them shows relationship to LME. And that will be, I think, it’s kind of predictive of what’s going to happen to silver as we move forward. And some of it shows relationship in the spreads, you know, front month to second month. Again, also very predictive of the spread situation in silver, which will also be predictive of more upside in the market. Let me shrink this a little bit. China is the most important factor in this market now, so it goes through that as well. So I would recommend that you take a look at that.

Copper, silver, and gold. Now, this is not my writing. I borrowed this from zero hedge this morning. Very flamboyant today, but I thought it was great, so I want to read it. And I’ll show you some charts that explain some of the things going on here. Copper, silver, and gold. The leading lights of the base and precious metals arenas are in what Lloyd Smith puts as history making mode, as both power to record highs in early Monday trading. Here’s a handful of things to watch in what can be a compelling week.

Copper, everybody’s favorite base metal is benefiting from the fallout from a dramatic short squeeze on the COMEX that plays straight into longstanding hype about global deficits to come, given the energy transition. Still, some physical indicators remain weak, so watch to see if copper’s prompt spread, which has been marred in an ugly bearish contango, narrows more this week. I left the K off. All right, here’s a couple of charts that I have up for you to get some perspective on copper. This is the copper market, right? And the arrows start approximately in late February, early March for all the commodities.

So there’s copper, you have the three arrows, and that’s where we are now. That’s the home ex copper. This is the same chart and yellow line has LME copper. Now, if you’re looking to try and make sense of this, LME copper and COMEX copper, once you train your eye on it, pretty much track each other. The yellow line will be sometimes below, sometimes above, but never really out of range until here, the COMEX gets above the yellow line, leaves the yellow line behind, leaves it behind again, gets kind of knocked back a little bit, and now the yellow line comes up.

You will hear people say COMEX has to come down to meet LME, while LME can also go up to meet COMEX. And again, keep this in mind if you’re a silver person, this is what’s going to happen in our future. Gold, the godfather of metals, is up 18% year to date and is positioned to challenge 2,500. Its latest leg higher appears to stem from return to usual drivers. Real 10-year treasury yields are coming off a three-week drop, the longest run in a year, a decent batch of FedSpeak as well as FOMC minutes will help to set the tone.

Okay, gold is going up for all the reasons we talk about here. Where is that? Here, this is why gold is going up. Now, I’m not contradicting what they’re saying, what they are saying is that with all these unusual drivers in place to drive gold higher, when the old school drivers come back, it’s going to kick it into overdrive. And so they’re right about that. Let’s look at the gold chart. Here’s the gold chart. Starting in March, I was careful to start in March for gold because March 1st is when this all started.

So if you look at these two dates, if you’re looking for signposts, October, that’s when the Israeli Ukraine, Israeli Ukraine, the Israeli war started, right? So you had your run up, basing, squeeze in December, March 1st, macro discretionary got involved and now here we are. Next chart. A reasonable question to ask if you’re not a technical genius is to what could we expect from upside from here? And I’m going to give you some patterns to look at. Everybody’s familiar with the cup and handle by now, right? It’s a big saucer bottom and the bull flag that comes off of it.

So the cup and the handle, what the cup and handle measures among other things is it projects an upside move that’s as deep as the cup and handle itself. The cup and handle is a very complex version of a basic formation. And the basic formation is what I’m showing you on this chart here. Every time you have a dip, a pronounced dip, a rounding bottom, more or less, and a rally in short order, I mean, at the time it takes to get down is similar to the time it takes to get up.

Then your projection is the depth of this to the upside and we got it. The depth of this to the upside, we got it. The depth of this to the upside. Eh, maybe we got it. Not necessarily the depth of this to the upside. Got it. Depth, upside. This is extra. Okay. Depth. This is where we are now. We broke that line upside. So your projection from here would be 60, 80, 40. So another 60, another hundred dollars above 2400. So this, if this formation holds, it should go to a 2,500.

So this is a behavioral pattern in the market. People are bullish. It gets sold off. It’s bought now. See these cells here, these are being bought by banks and funds, banks and funds. This is, you know, I won’t call it manipulation, but I will say that this is orchestrated to give the market a breather, market a breather. See how they’re all red. And then it reverses with chop, red reverses with chop, mixed red reverses with chop. This one is not really that pronounced. This one is not really that pronounced, but it’s deep. Okay.

So we could have a nice big blow off here before we’re going in lower. Now, I don’t think the market’s going to go much lower until the election, but you have to keep that in mind. Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. Here’s the cup and handle depth, right? There’s your handle and the market’s broken out. This, you know, this is probably, this might be the purest biggest breakout of all time in any market, the cleanest chart breakout of all time. Cup handle. There’s your V, right? That measure brings you to, that measure should be this high up here, this measure this high.

So we’re, we’re at mission accomplished on the monthly already, meaning that market’s not over, but meaning a pullback would not be unheard of. But I’m not betting on it going into, going into the election. All right. Silver, silver is flexing its muscles with gold up 12% last week and roaring higher again on Monday. Watch to see if the ratio to gold realigns with the longstanding average. That gauges now back to 75 close to the 68 since the start of the millennium. I think that’s a significant point. Okay. We’re going to show you what they’re talking about there.

So there’s silver, right? Also starting in March, March, right? Caught fire. And now this is the gold silver ratio. Now, Michael Oliver has a line here. Now this, this is my line. It’s been a channel I’ve been trading, but we break below this line and he was basically saying silver’s off to the races below this line. And that’s true. What it also means is the below this line, the whole complex goes up. Okay. So right now we’re on the way back to 68. So this gold silver trend line that has been broken, the lower this goes, the higher silver goes relative to gold and the higher gold and silver go in general.

So we’re about right here right now. This is a, this is a monthly. Okay. So on a daily basis, we’re probably lower. So I would say that this, this is a confirmation, uh, that not only is this a, you know, bull markets don’t leave silver behind silver has to catch up with it. Doesn’t lead. All right. Going to the market news in the market news. Well, none of this is particularly about metals itself. But if you go through the news year, just look at the headlines. These are not my headlines. These are headlines of what they continue to put on the public to talk about.

We’re going to talk about artificial intelligence and how much money they’ve spent. Americans are kicking the can down the road on some more costly, traditionally finance purchases. They’re not kicking the can just not buying, not spending money. There are enough unsold homes in China to house every family hot shot at China. Fine. When us markets open next Tuesday after the long weekend, everyone will like everything will likely seem normal. Okay. GameStop has announced plans to sell. So everything here is paper money, losing buying power relative to physical money. I don’t know what that means.

Well, issuing more debt, spending more money. It’s just, you know, things are circling the drain. More consumers are saving their workday lunch money to burn when they’re off the clock. I mean, they’re making it charming. It’s not charming. It’s a real problem. Geopolitics. Well, this is what happened over the weekend. This is probably one of the things that made you likely to not sell your gold or silver. If you were long and coming on Monday, the president of Iran, Raisi and foreign minister Emil Abdullah Hayn crashed due to adverse weather conditions, according to state TV.

Now, no one’s taking any responsibility for it or claiming that it’s part of an act of war. But of course that’s going to cause problems and possible fears of instability within Iran as well. Anyway, Israel said it is not involved in the death of Iranian president Raisi. If I’m saying it right, according to an Israeli official cited by Reuters, Russia’s defense ministry said Russian forces took control of Star Tzia in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. All right. So over the weekend, you had the Iranian president dies in a helicopter crash. You had Russia confiscate US, not US, G7 assets in a tit for tat for what we’ve been doing.

So the world is taking its money out of paper assets and putting it to physical assets because that and this trend will continue. We’re now in the all the secular stuff I’ve talked about for like the last two years is now in the macro area and people are waking up to it. But there are a lot of people that will not wake up to it until it’s too late. You shouldn’t be one of those data on the week. It’s a very, very light week, right? You can sleep on it if you want to on these speakers.

But this is the highlight. I think the information will be stale. But because it’s the only really big thing this week, the market could have an overreaction to it. So pay attention to it. PMI comes in on Thursday. PMI is going to be another another proof that we’re either in a recession or coming or staying out of it. The PMI meeting manufacturers index, that’s probably going to come in soft and the markets will react again as if the Fed’s going to ease. And when the Fed eases, people are going to say, I’ll buy stocks.

And then they’ll say, well, I’ll put some money into physical markets as well. And that’s it. And in premium, we have the report to share with you guys. I’m Vince. Let’s check the markets again. Right. So gold is going to give back some of its gains now. Right. This is all healthy. This is fine. Now, see this trend line drawn here, we discussed it this weekend. This trend line comes in at around the 50 hour moving average. Okay. So the market can drop all the way back to 2400 and you don’t care. I mean, you don’t care unless you’re trading it from the long side and you want it to go up above 2600 today.

But this market has no sellers in it. The banks aren’t selling anymore. They’re only selling when they can buy. If you can make sense out of that. All right. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Take care. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lansing brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals where this week’s special is 2023 dated one ounce silver Cougarands from the South African Mint for only $3.10 over spot. And even with the price rallying, fortunately the premiums are still on the lower side and to get a full price list or place an order for silver Cougarands at $3.10 over spot.

Just email us at Arcadia at miles Franklin and we’ll be happy to get you set up with anything you need. And as always, thanks for watching. Hope you’re having a great day out there. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching
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See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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China's increased demand for metals copper silver gold record highs current trends in gold market gold price prediction $2 gold rise and real 10-year treasury yields green energy sectors boosting metal demand hedge fund speculation in metals short squeeze on COMEX supply shortages driving metal prices

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