Vince Lanci: MSA Says July Silver Over $29.54 Could Reignite Rally | Arcadia Economics

If we see the price of July silver trade this week to $29.54, that will take out this past week’s highest reading on this meta-oscillator, including the upturn process is starting and downturn is drying up. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy. In today’s Market Rundown, we’re going to look at gold and silver in context of last week, this week, and hopefully next week.

And we’ll talk a little bit of geopolitics, and then we’ll look at some market driving news as well. But first, let’s look at the markets as they currently exist. The dollar is $105.27, continuing its rally from Friday up 34. Ten-year yields are up three basis points at $446, continuing their rally, where bonds getting crushed from Friday. S&P 500, $53.42 down two handles, extending a little bit of Friday’s downside. The VIX 13-14 up 93. That’s a nice move for the VIX. Gold is $22.99 up $6.10. Obviously, it got crushed on Friday. This is a bounce.

We’ll talk about this in context of all the markets in a second. Silver is $29.70 up 54 cents, impressive at 1.89%, but it was down over 6% on Friday. Copper is $4.49 up 1.5 to 1.75%. WTI is $76.16 up 55 cents, another bounce. Natural gas, $2.86, defying everything. Up 11 and change, cents, that’s 4%. Again, above $2. People are buying dips all the way up to, I guess, the next hurricane season. Crypto, $69,491. Bitcoin is down 137. Ethereum, $36.76. Ethereum is down 29. Platinum and Palladium are both up. Palladium is playing catch-up, trading $9.18 up 7.

Platinum, $9.68 up 2. Those markets also got slammed last week on Friday. Grains are upside down. Soybean is up and wheat is down, and corn is slightly higher. So soy is $11.77 up corn is $4.45, up almost $3, and wheat is $6.35 down $3. So the tentative headline is the Michael Oliver technical update. Now, I want to be completely fair. We’re not going to tell you everything that Oliver says, but we do subscribe and receive his reports. We’re going to share with you an excerpt or two focused on precious metals, and we’re not going to give everything away.

This is how the man makes money, right? But we are going to share enough with you to say, oh, that’s cool. And you’ll be able to think a little bit more and think about what your decisions are from there. Okay. Commentary, that and CTA sold level to hold. All right. Let’s go to the front page. Front page, I did a couple, I did three podcasts this weekend. I guess it came out of me verbally instead of written this weekend. So Yellen’s disastrous China trip. That was about her giving away the fact that we have gone from wanting to buy Chinese goods cheap to wanting to sell goods overseas and complaining about cheap Chinese goods.

It just showed our hands on how vulnerable we are. And this one, Hartnett, Hartnett’s report, one flew over the one flow over the Cuckoo’s nest related to the fact that he’s we’re getting closer to being overbought in stocks. And also he sees oil as being drastically cheap if there’s a geopolitical surprise. And I’m going to call back to that in my geopolitical comment. And there’s one more in there somewhere. Where did that go? China has yet to show its hand. Now that’s about China stopping its purchasing of gold, at least saying that they’re podcasts.

At least that’s what the feedback has been so far. And one was big picture and one was context of the behavior on Friday. Anyway, moving to the main event, right? All right. I’m going to read a couple of excerpts here. I’m not going to give away all the prices. I also in premium, I’ll add a little bit more to it. It’s important to know that he has a report that comes out once a week called the 360 report, 360 degree report. And in that report, he goes over all the major markets. And I’ll just say that with regards to the stock market, we’re near the end of a topping formation.

We’re near a trigger for a sell off. So from a technical perspective, he’s agreeing with data that Michael Hartnett is saying that’s always good when you have cross discipline agreement. In bonds, I haven’t looked closely at that yet. Maybe I should because I’m long bonds and getting my ass handed to me. And in metals, I’ve read that obviously, and I’m going to give you a couple excerpts from that. Okay. First thing I want to read. This is Michael talking this time in April, May, and now June, gold has traded up to 2400 each month and six of the past nine weeks have traded over 2400.

It’s hardly thin air up here is what that action is saying. No sudden spike high and collapse. Instead, gold has been taking the selling without any exhaustive looking high. I completely agree with that. And again, I’m going to add to it from a different perspective, from a different discipline. I’m a watcher of the tape. And starting on December 3rd, I saw the bank of international settlements get very active. When December 3rd, December 4th, that spike high, they came in and sold it. Boom. And usually when they come in and put a lid on something, it’s over.

That’s the top. Instead from December 3rd through February 28th, the market chopped in a big range sideways. And it was during that time I identified a sovereign wealth fund and probably a central bank buying. And on March 1st, that’s when the macro discretionary came in with a vengeance. Now, since the March 1st up ramp, there have been two points where we had a long wick above, if you’re looking at a daily, I forget the days, but they were both of those days were BIS coming in and capping the market. Now, why is this related to what he just said? It’s related to what he just said, because every time that BIS does that, you hold your breath.

Okay. Because that means the buying is done, the market’s going to go down and they’re going to slam it. But that’s not what’s happening now. See the BIS isn’t always bearish. I mean, they are always bearish, but sometimes the BIS has to buy gold. And this is my opinion. They need to keep a little on it so their buyers can get filled. And so they will do that. They will make a market they’re buying for a customer where the bullion banks are, and they’re selling to keep it in a range. They’re being a market maker of last resort.

This relates directly with what Michael’s saying, because every time the last three times the BIS has sat on this market, it’s dropped hard precipitously and then it stopped. Now we could be at the beginning of that happening again. I’m not saying it has happened again, but that tells me that there’s real buying underpinning this and they’re trying to keep a lid on it behaviorally to get that buying filled. So bringing what I just said back to what Michael said, the market makes these new spike highs and then eventually trades up there in size, in volume.

It’s hardly thin air up here is what that action is saying. And he’s right. We are in a new paradigm is not the right word. I mean, everyone will say the word paradigm. We’re in a new distribution of where gold is now. Hopefully it’s not a Wyckoff distribution, but until it looks like something like that, I’m with what Michael’s saying here. I mean, look at this chart. You have to expect it to come back here, right? You would say, Oh, thin air. No, but we’re, we’re trading up here. We’re creating congestion up here, right? It’s not like we have one level new all time highs and then it comes off.

We have a lot of levels. All right. Getting into the nitty gritty. We’ve run several short term metrics again, talking Michael’s words here of daily and weekly momentum timescale charts, not shown here, and come up with a number that if seen this week argues this range bound action on either side of twenty four hundred is over and upside is resuming. That number would be a daily close by August gold this week at I’m not going to give you the number. I’m just going to give you the range to give you an idea between twenty three fifty and twenty four ninety five.

That price last week was twenty three twenty five. So again, continuation from what he’s saying above. It’s not thin air up here. This is this is a new trading range. There’s there’s a fundamental shift paradigm, I guess, is the right word, right? OK. And upon seeing that, I’m not sure exactly what he did, but upon seeing that and testing, he said, well, we’re now in a range and this range bound action will end on either side of twenty four hundred if we get above this number between twenty three fifteen twenty four ninety five.

OK. And so if we get above that, then range bound momentum shifts to bullish momentum. I’m guessing because I see something similar to that, but not exactly. His is proprietary on on my Bollinger Band setup, which also is proprietary, but it’s probably not as complicated as his. OK, so let’s move to silver next. Silver, right. He also has some considerable information on silver, but I’m just going to I’m going to show you the number in silver today because I know that the Arcadia people will strangle me if I don’t tell them something.

If we see the price of July silver trade this week to twenty nine fifty four, that will take out this past week’s highest reading on this meta oscillator, including the upturn process is starting and downturn is drying up. I probably left the word out there. But what you’re looking at in this chart without giving away too much of his secrets, I don’t know too many of his secrets, is this is kind of a momentum oscillator that he has. And if you’re a Bollinger Band person, which I am, there’s a similarity to it in methodology as it’s measuring volatility, not price.

And what he’s noticed and he explains this a little bit. What he’s noticed as is it never gets it rarely gets more than four in one direction before it reverses. So the for example, that red circle up there, that’s three in one direction and then it reversed. And then the the green circle, all the green circles are four in one direction and then a reversal. So he’s saying at the very least the momentum is oversold and that’s why it’s green below and right above. And I can’t find fault with it. I understand what he’s talking about.

So there you go. That’s where is that? Yeah, we’ll come back to silver a little bit. All right. So to clarify, no, not necessarily if we get above twenty twenty nine fifty four. No, not necessarily some instant thunderbolt, but it indicates that the pressures are shifting. So you may have a range bound higher. You may have a violent breakout and then a pullback. But he’s saying it’s an indication at the pressure shifting. There’s always risk to the outside. OK. But, you know, it’s nice to have a big sell off and have your technician come back and say, OK, I’ve done the math.

It could be a problem if we get to here. But if we get back above here, it’s not a problem right now. We’re just still in the range. It’s kind of what he’s saying, in my opinion. Stay with us and we’ll give you some more insights at the end and premium. Geopolitics, no geo Goldilocks for Biden. Michael Harnett said something he said. Geopolitics has no Goldilocks. I just said geo Goldilocks. And and that’s why he’s saying the bio oil. So I’m not going to go through each one of these, but I’m going to go through the comment.

My comment, I should say. But look, Israel, the headline is 200 Gazans killed to rescue four Israelis. You know what? There are valid points on both sides of this. And one side is, is it really worth killing 200 for four? And that is a statistical, bigger picture comment. And then the other side is, well, first of all, they are hostages. And a crime has been committed, taking them and you don’t negotiate with hostages. You don’t appease evil. OK, so there are both sides to that debate. But I’m going to just bring it down to a personal choice.

How many people would you remove from this earth to save your own child? And once you have that number, you have to ask yourself. Are these close enough to be considered children? These four people. Anyway, that’s just an opinion, and I know where I come down on it. Israeli Minister Gantz resigned from the emergency government. That’s bad. That’s bad for Netanyahu. That’s a divided Israel. The Biden administration is discussing the possibility of negotiating a unilateral deal with Hamas independently of Israel to release American hostages. That’s alarm bells. OK, that’s American election politics. Rescue the hostages before the election, right? Intersecting with geopolitics.

Maybe we make the Israelis look bad if we get ours out of there. What are we going to promise them for that? It’s just it’s alarm bells. I don’t know how it resolves itself, but it’s alarm bells. Russian forces appear to have made headway. So, you know, no geo Goldilocks for for for Biden. Senior Russian lawmaker says Russia is going to attack Ukrainian jets where their base means Russia is going to attack more. And the F-16s are going to be targeting Russian bases further further in country. That’s a necessary evil. I don’t like it, but I understand both sides of that equation.

Biden and Macron are going to go out of their way to spend Russia’s money. That’s a bad idea, getting worse. South Korea restarted loudspeaker broadcast in response to North Korea’s, you know, they were sending balloons filled with crap over. So more fog and distractions. Then the Philippines says, look at us. We are referring reaffirming our commitment. Somebody would somebody please bomb us. I mean, that’s really what it looks like. OK, so moving to the data on deck. First half of the week is nothing. Today, nothing scheduled. Tomorrow, nothing significant is scheduled. But Wednesday is a huge day.

CPI. OK, I don’t think CPI is as big as or important as it was two or three months ago. But, you know, obviously it’s a very big thing. And if there’s a surprise, that’s going to really screw things up. The FOMC is the bigger item that day, believe it or not, at 2 p.m. So Wednesday will be kind of like two trading sessions. Thursday is PPI, which will be big, not as big as CPI, but big enough. It’s more of a forward looking inflationary index and that should be clean right now. And Friday is consumer sentiment.

Stay with us. And we’re going to talk about a little bit more about that report. But I want to bring you to the gold chart and the silver chart for a second here. All right. You may or may not recall that when the market made a low in here and stopped, I got alert. I drew two lines here to give you kind of a little range. This is where I identified the buyer that was here coming back. He bought here. He caught a knife. The knife bounced. He caught it again. He caught it again. And then the market just said, I give up and started to rally again.

Right. So here we are. It stopped. Is this a dead cap bounce? Yeah, it could be. But if you look at silver, it doesn’t look like a dead cap bounce. I think the buyer is at least nibbling in this area. And harkening back to Michael Oliver’s comment. See this? That’s the that’s the BIS sold. Retest. Nope, but it holds sold. No retest or a weak retest, but it holds. Okay. I’ll bring it back a little bit. Remember December 3rd. BIS remember when this was the highest we’ve ever seen how exciting it was. Sold. Retest.

And then holds for two months. And that’s the algo buying for a for sovereign wealth fund. So you have to be in my Sunday conversation with Colfax founders. I said you have to be long here and you have to stop yourself out below some level. Maybe it’s Friday’s low. Maybe it’s one of these lows back here. And that’s how I look at gold right now. You have to be long. And I did I am short call spreads against being long miners. But I did punt a little bit long last night. The market opened unchanged. I held my nose and bought a tiny bit.

And put a stop in below. So it’s a small punt and silver. Of course, I should have bought silver, but I bought gold. All right. Let’s take a look at silver. Silver. Okay. Before you get too excited about this and believe me, I can get excited about this. It’s a bounce, right? I mean, we dropped 6%, but it’s a bounce, but it’s a damn good bounce. That’s a damn good bounce. These two days cancel this day out. So if we look at these three days. We’re right here. After three days, we have three days together.

It’s a doji day. That’s still pretty damn healthy. I think macro discretionary is buying silver now. And that’s why it’s reacting so violently. CTAs, which are your smaller hedge funds and your aggregated retail. They’re puking precious metals right now. And you love to see that. And I’m not even being ironic. You love to see that. You want to see them sell without the macro discretionary selling. And if the market can hold at a level here with open interest all the way down. Again, I’ll show that again some other time. You have the market basing for another high, which also corroborates what Michael would say.

Okay. Well, thanks for tuning into today’s markets and metals with Vince Lansing. Show is brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals, who we encourage you to consider for your next gold or silver purchase or sale. Miles Franklin has pricing that’s among the best in the industry and most products. And Arcadia is proud to be a licensed Miles Franklin representative and happy to help whenever you have questions or want to place an order. Where this week’s silver special is one ounce silver Britannias for only $3.15 over spot. Silver Britannia is the sovereign coin from the Royal Mint in England and has the added advantage of being IRA eligible.

Place an order, get more information or speak with me directly. Call us at 833-326-4653 and we’ll be happy to help you get whatever you need. So thanks for watching and we look forward to hearing from you. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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