Vince Lanci: Goldman Raises 2024 Gold Target To $2300 | Arcadia Economics

➡ Arcadia Economics talks about a report from Goldman Sachs that suggests now is a good time to invest in copper, silver, and gold. The report argues that the industrial cycle is turning, meaning manufacturing is picking up again, which will increase the demand for these metals. The report also mentions that a shortage of copper could lead to a rise in its price, which would also affect silver prices. Lastly, the report predicts that gold prices will increase by the end of the year.

The copper story is the silver story. If copper goes up, silver will go up more for this reason. That’s it. And it’s probably going to happen. I’m not saying it’s happening tomorrow. I’m saying this report is saying to the world we’re watching and if an opportunity presents itself, we will get long. We will tell our clients to get long and this thing will go up to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancey where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here is Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. In today’s market rundown we’re going to talk about Goldman and report they just put out that basically puts copper, silver and gold on notice in one report. So let’s get started. Okay. As I just mentioned, Goldman has a report out. It’s primarily discussing copper. The title of it is copper’s time is now. We’re going to go through the main points of that report.

But first let’s check in with the markets to see where they are. All right. The Dow, the Dow, listen to me. The dollar is down 910 year. Bonds are down a basis point. SP 500 is 51 50 up 30. Handles. Wow. The VIX is 1462. Gold is trading 21 60 up 470. After touching an important technical level and finding buying there silver was negative on the night but is now positive at 20 517.

This is all very constructive. Copper is trading 410. It is also strong. Bitcoin is up 25, which is basically nothing. Trading 68. Spot 387. After a weekend of selling that started on Friday precipitated likely by a liquidator of bitcoin who had a short microstrategy position against it, et cetera, et cetera. Ethereum is 36 seven. Palladium is down 16 at 1064. Platinum is trading 922 down $12. Oil is up again, trading 181 32 up $0.

32. Natural gas is up nine cents at one hundred and seventy four, up over 5%. And grains are off the screen, but they are down. Soybeans trading 1185. And corn is trading 428. And there it is. Wheat is trading 538 seven. There’s the Goldfix home page. We have a lot of really good content out this weekend. The big long which discusses the concurrent liquidation of ETF bullion holdings for GLD and SLV with the Comex drawdown.

And we make the case that there’s some risk there that we’re not seeing. Also, Michael Hartnet had a very good report out over the weekend. Over the week. And we walked through it over the weekend describing, well, basically the Fed may not raise the interest rate, I’m sorry, the inflation target to 3%. But they’re acting like they are and the market is treating them like they are and they probably are.

All right, so here we go. Let’s get to the main story here. The main story is this Goldman report. All right. Goldman just put copper, silver and gold on notice in one report. The report’s about copper. It’s called copper’s time is now. And they put in this report six well written, well argued points about why Copper is probably a buy. We’re going to read through the six points, just the titles of them.

That full report is available to premium subscribers at the bottom. We’re also going to do a complete read through and walk through of this report later in the day because I want to touch on the nuances and people who understand the history of Goldman more trading aspects like myself will say this is not something you rely on and I’m going to say to you that it is. And I’ll explain to you what is right about this report and with healthy skepticism.

For now I’m just going to read the six points they make, just the title of the point and I will throw a chart in or two in areas that I can corroborate or contradict what they’re saying. So let’s get to that. First of all, the reasons copper’s time is now. The first one is a turn in the industrial cycle. They say after a prolonged downturn incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle and there’s a chart to that effect.

What do we say about that? Well, yes, the economy, we’ve been talking about this for a couple of weeks and Hartnett has been talking about this more pointedly. PMIs are weak, but they are definitely bottoming. So you’re negative, but you’re less negative. They’re starting to creep up and that’s an indication, a logical economic indication that the consumption that we’ve had for the last year or so has been draining inventories and so manufacturers are starting to manufacture again.

So the economy was consumption and now it’s replenishment or manufacturing. And that is a cyclical sign that the economy is going to kick up. The global economy is going to kick up again from an increased manufacturing because of the runoff. So increased manufacturing means, increased raw materials, means by copper. Second point, China’s green policy put we don’t feel comfortable having an opinion on that except to say that it’s important to read.

And they are actually getting pretty ESG about it when you think about their green movements, electric cars, what have you. All right, Europe’s price stimulus, in the nutshell of that is Europe’s price stimulus augments the demand side, which makes their manufacturing possibly come back. Now, their manufacturing is taking a big hit in the last year for the right reasons, but this could be a dead cat bounce for them.

But Goldman goes through it, I think, pretty methodically about what the pros of that are and the risks as well. So copper itself, copper supply shock progresses. All right. The supply shock, which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increased bind on metal production. All right, quickly, the copper shortage story has been around for a while, and it’s had various little spikes in copper.

But let’s face it, over the last year, copper’s contango has been a reflection of that not really being a problem. But now we’re seeing it creep into the actual manufacturing. If you look in China, a lot of smelters had to shut down, or they were told to shut down because they weren’t profitable. And as a result of that, you have less production. So you have a supply shrinkage that’s working through the system from the vaults to the processing.

Now, that in and of itself is not bullish, but the outcome of that is bullish. Reason I think that’s extremely significant for silver is that is silver story. That’s the same story as silver. Okay? That’s the silver story. Nobody talks about silver. There’s a reason for that. We’re not going to get into that now. But the copper story is the silver story. If copper goes up, silver will go up more for this reason.

That’s it. And it’s probably going to happen. I’m not saying it’s happening tomorrow. I’m saying this report is saying to the world we’re watching, and if an opportunity presents itself, we will get long. We will tell our clients to get long, and this thing will go up. Then they’re talking about, look at what copper and silver have done in the last week or so. They’ve kind of moved in tandem.

More so than silver and gold. Anyway, gold’s bullish. Reawakening. What does this have to do with copper? Right. Well, it has a lot to do with copper. I’m not going to get into it now, except to say that you’re going to probably see if copper rallies, you’re going to see gold miners by copper miners, and it’s already happened starting last year. But let’s read this. The sharp rally in gold prices since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that has been present since late December.

We increase, there’s a lot in here on gold. We increase our average gold forecast for 2024 from 2090 an ounce to 21 80. Announce targeting a move to 2300 a troy ounce by year end. Now, this is embedded in the copper report. Look, if they’re saying to you that gold is going to move with copper this time, and they’re saying to you that copper has got a good chance of moving, or it’s copper’s time is now, then silver’s time is going to be bigger than that.

Now, I’m not trying to pump you up, except to say this is a very well written, well argued report. That, of course, is biased, bullish, but they’re not making stories up. Okay? Aluminum’s China import surge. Aluminium. This is obviously one of their english analysts. In our view, the metal with the most supportive onshore microdynamics so far this year has been aluminum. Now, this is the little phrase there afterwards where aluminum goes in China, silver follows.

That’s my opinion. If you’re making solar panels, you’re using a lot of aluminum, using a lot of silicon, and you’re using a lot of silver. Notice they use the word microdynamics. What they’re talking about is specifically domestically, China’s aluminum demand has increased, and I have seen more silver come out of the Shanghai vaults to that effect. So right now, everyone’s talking about gold leaving the vault. Maybe in six months, you’ll start seeing more silver leave the Comex vault.

That’s how it works. Iron ore’s sobering. Sell off. Sell off, I wrote. That’s a typo. It would be wrong to depict the entire picture of China dynamics as supportive for industrial metals. Iron ore has gotten slammed. Now, they’re going to give you the reasons why it might be over. But that’s an example of what happens if China does not follow through. We’re talking about copper here, right? If China does not follow through, then iron ore is predicting what copper is going to do.

It’s not China predicting what iron ore is going to do. So you have to consider that together. So all that continues. At bottom, it’s a very good analysis, and they’re not recommending you do anything. This is one of the better Goldman reports on copper that I’ve read in a long time. Plenty of charts as well, I’ve only shown you a little bit. All right, so let’s go from there to the news.

The market news. Usually after a weekend, you have a lot of geopolitical news and you have some market news. The market news is there. I’m not going to read it today. You can see it. Bond investors who were once convinced that the Fed would start cutting interest rates are painfully surrendering to a higher for longer reality. Okay, so the market is slowly saying there’s going to be less rate cuts.

Nvidia. Story about Nvidia there. Investors poured a record amount into US equity funds last week. That’s right. A lot of them bought tech. So this stagflation story, which you’ll hear come from me as well as Hartnet, does not seem to be playing out right now. The only thing I think that’s really interesting for me is SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with the US intelligence agency, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s space company and national security agencies.

This whole Musk versus deep state know, maybe at the bureaucratic level it is. But demand’s too important for the military industrial complex. Don’t be surprised if you start seeing generals driving around cyber trucks soon. Anyway, geopolitics, there’s a lot of them, as I mentioned, and they’re all at the bottom. And I’m not saying that they’re very important, but I wanted to include them in case one of them is important.

But I think the most pertinent ones are these. Russian predecessor Putin won 88% of the votes in the russian election where the opposition was banned. According to the FT, russian President Putin commented on the french proposal for a ceasefire during the Olympics, in which he stated that they are ready for talks and will proceed from Russia’s interest on the front line. White House commented the russian election was not free nor fair.

Okay, data on deck. Busy data week starts slow, gets big and then falls off a table. So Monday, home builder confidence. Tuesday, housing starts pretty important. Wednesday, hugely important. The fomc interest rate decision. And at 230, they have a conference after that on Thursday. Initial jobless claims. That happens every week. PMI, remember, PMIs are what they’re looking at right now, right? And us lei leading indicators and existing home sales.

So Wednesday and Thursday are huge days. Friday, take a breather. Attached the Goldman analysis and says Goldfix read through and commentary. We’re going to do that in a separate post. We’re going to basically read through it for people that don’t have time to read it but want to hear it. And we’ll have some quick commentary on that as well. That’s all for now. Here, let me put the chart up.

Sorry about that. Let me do that. Let’s talk very quickly about gold and silver. All right. This is the weekly gold chart. See that? That’s a December 3 high that was tested, violated, and held here. Now, if you look at it on a daily basis, you’ll see that this has been tested well, that’s the line going there. Almost tested multiple times. So there’s buying, there’s buying, there’s buying, there’s buying, there’s buying.

But it’s a little lower. You should be bullish above that line, neutral below that line and bearish below that line. If you see something that it comes back to the line and fails on a retest, it would go down as low as 2077 if that’s the case. But this is the consolidation that Goldman is predicting now. Fomcs this week. I think you’ll have dip buyers going into the FOMC.

After the FoMC, all bets are off. Silver. Silver is its own animal right now. Thank goodness. Right? So these lines here, this line, that’s where I think we go to. We had a run up and I said we’d have a run up and we skated under the ICE patch. The ICE patch to here. And now we’re here. Above this line is a big contentionary. So this is another volatile dead zone.

You don’t want to be bullish or bearish in here. You want to be watching with popcorn. But below here, you’re saying to yourself, this market could be topping out. If gold breaks out, I’m going to buy silver. That’s how I look at it. I’m not saying I’m going to trade it that way, but right here, I’m not saying to be short. I’m just saying this is the area that it was supposed to stop at.

So is it the top of a range that goes back down here and we start to work in here for a while, or is it a gap up that’s going to start getting crazy in here? We don’t know. We know what we hope, but we don’t know. Going back to gold for another second. I want to show you the RSI. The RSI was overbought, is starting to work itself down to less than overbought, and the market is sustaining.

You want to look at things like open interest, et cetera, et cetera. Quick comment about bitcoin. It’s the end of the world. Bitcoin’s going to zero. It’s the end of the world. Bitcoin’s going to zero. You know what? And it probably will go to zero eventually. I’m not saying that, but one thing bitcoin has told you is that every time there is a problem, and there are a lot of problems and a lot of unethical players and a lot of people over leveraged, this market continues to show you that it’s systemically antifragile so far.

I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancey, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin precious metals where this week pre 1933 $20 gold liberty coins are only $65 over spot per coin. Call miles Franklin at 833-26-4653 to get your pre 1933 gold now and we’ll be happy to answer any questions you have and get you any of the gold or silver that you need.

Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your finance advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. .

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