US Manufacturing Slump Is Accelerating

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Summary

➡ The Economic Ninja discusses the alarming decline of U.S. manufacturing, with only two non-contraction months in 2023 and others marked by rising prices and falling orders. As new factories are being built due to fears of losing the semiconductor base in the event of China moving into Taiwan, the ninja warns of potential supply chain disruptions and further job losses and price rises, advising against getting too optimistic about potential short-term lowering of rates.

Transcript

Hey, everyone, economic ninja here. Hope you’re doing well. It’s moving day. Can you even see my pro pure, my water filter back there? Moving the office stuff today and want to take a few minutes, go over the news. I think this is a great indicator of where the economy is and where it is headed. And that is the US manufacturing data. This story is at a zero hedge.

It’s entitled US manufacturing slump or sorry, the sector lump accelerates in December. Orders are down, prices are up. It says US manufacturing saw only two months in 2023 that were not in contraction and ended on a decidedly poor note with the final December print dropping to 47. 9. So only two months where we have not seen us manufacturing in contraction. Now, interestingly enough, what is it? GDP blew up in October.

Right? And one of the reasons why is they said there are all these factories being built and there has to be some people out there scratching their head, and I’m not, because I understand they’re going, well, okay, if factories are being built, that means that are good, we have products. It’s actually backwards. That is totally backwards. You see, it’s funny that we used to make fun of China and their ghost cities.

60 minutes, all the mainstream pundits out there were mocking China. But what happened was China had a surplus of cash because they were selling us all of the junk they were making right on Amazon and all kinds of websites. We got addicted to these low prices through Walmart and these big box stores. And I’m going to be honest with you, I shop at them, too, because I’m looking for the lowest price.

I’m wanting to save as much of my paycheck as I can to be a success in the future. But the fact is, the whole country did. And very few people, might I add, I’m sure that most of you feel the same way. Most people don’t go looking for the lowest price so that they can save the rest of their dollar from their paycheck to stretch it further, using investments or starting businesses or being fruitful.

They just are strapped anyway. They’re totally strapped in debt. That’s why they’re doing that. So China took all that money and built these cities to populate with their citizens. We mocked them. Okay, now we are building a ton of factories because we are in panic that China is about to go and move into Taiwan. And if we lose the semiconductor base, the plants out of Taiwan, we are in serious, serious trouble.

You see, our country is not a producing nation. And so what we did is we came up with the technology of these silicon chips and all this stuff out of Silicon Valley, but then we farmed it out to other countries. So now we have a position where we have mocked one country, a superpower that is getting bigger and bigger every day. It is taking over everything, including currency.

And now we’re building. So as we are building factories that actually caused our GDP to go up alongside of what the government’s doing with all these wars that I’m pretty sure none of us you want to be in because I don’t want to see us in wars. Right. I want to take our money, our tax money, and heal our nation here. All right? We need the money to stay here right now.

We need to strengthen our country. Our country is getting weak all around. We’re all encompassing of weakness. That’s the wrong way to say it, but it’s sad. So right now, we see us manufacturing data only two months out of the entire year of 2023 were not in contraction. People are losing their jobs left and right. People have less pay. This is not a joke. Yeah, there’s companies out there striking.

There’s people striking. And yes, they win. Okay? You get more money. Cool. Now 1000 of you are fired. That’s the reality. So it says here, going into this data, it says across the board it was ugly. With renewed contraction in output as orders fall at a sharper pace because people are ordering less goods because they don’t have the money, which means it’s going to be harder for companies to keep going forward on an ongoing basis.

Rates of inflation picked up. Joint fastest drop in employment since June of 2020. Let me read that again, because right now the White House and the Federal Reserve are telling you two totally different things. Sorry. The Federal Reserve is actually doing a pretty good job of it telling you the truth, but everybody’s interpreting them wrong. The mainstream media and the White House are telling you everything is great.

But right now, the fastest drop in employment just happened across the board, our manufacturing base since June of 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S and P Global Market Intelligence, said us manufacturers ended the year on a sour note. According to S and P Global’s PMI survey, output fell at the fastest rate for six months as the recent order book decline intensified. Manufacturing will therefore likely have acted as a drag on the economy in the fourth quarter, the slowdown.

And again, remember, I’ve been telling you this for a while and I want you to watch. You get to see not only Q four’s earnings, which I believe across the board are going to be abysmal but that is going to drag down all of 2020 three’s earnings. So everybody needs to watch these earnings as they come out in the next couple of weeks. This is a big deal.

Black Friday was not as good as the media is telling you. And we’re going to get the data here in a couple of weeks and that’s going to only hopefully encourage you to prepare more, to save more, to prepare harder, because the opportunities are going to bound those for those that are prepared. Okay? He says. He goes on to say with factories also cutting back sharply on their purchases of inputs in December, suppliers were also less busy on average, again hinting at the development of spare capacity.

While there was some uplift in the rate of both raw material and factory gate selling price inflation, firms cost notably continued to rise at a pace below the survey’s long run average to hint at historically subdued industrial price pressures. Look, if there’s anybody in the industry, in any industry right now that are seeing Price pressuring a build up of inventory and you could share this with me, I want to be able to share it.

I’ll keep your identity hidden. I want to share the truth behind the scenes. Let me know what’s going on. It’s ninjabrohawk@gmail. com. Please don’t email me unless you’re in these industries and just please don’t ask me financial questions. I’m not going to do that. I can’t do that. I’m getting hundreds of emails a day. But I’m trying to find the real information. Are your inventories stacking up? Are people purchasing less? I want to know what’s going on behind the scenes so that we can continue to warn Americans to prepare.

This isn’t supposed to be doom and gloom. It’s supposed to be. Here’s the truth. Here are the facts. Now go do something about it. Be men and women of action. They close in this and saying, this is what he says in closing. Given current order book trends, the overall picture from the survey is one of supply exceeding demand for many goods, which points to downside risk to production, employment and prices.

As we head into 2024, potential supply chain disruptions need to be monitored, however, notably in terms of shipping, as the survey has clearly demonstrated in the past, how supply tensions quickly feed through to higher prices. It’s going to get worse. More people will lose jobs. Prices are going to keep going up. The Fed has not quelled inflation. Do not follow the narrative. Do not fall for the trap of them lowering rates for just a little bit.

It’s going to whipsaw. Hope you had a great day. Economic ninja is out. .

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