Rafi Farber: World War III Kabuki Theater Brings Gold Briefly to $3000

➡ The government is giving $25 billion to meet strict money requirements. This week, there were two instances where it seemed like World War III might start, which affected gold, silver, and bitcoin prices. The ratio of gold to other goods is about to break a long-term average, which usually leads to a big increase in gold and silver prices. Lastly, Fortuna Silver Mines, a company that mines gold and silver, found a lot more silver, which is exciting news.
➡ The value of Bitcoin and the dollar are both tied to gold, so if the dollar’s value drops, Bitcoin’s value will too. Gold’s value compared to stocks is increasing, suggesting stocks may fall. Swiss bank UBS may need a $25 billion bailout to meet new, stricter rules. Despite the Federal Reserve not planning to lower interest rates soon, gold’s value is rising, and banks predict it will continue to do so, possibly reaching $3,000 this year.

They have stringent capital requirements. In order to meet those stringent capital requirements, the government will give them $25 billion. And then that’s really stringent. That’s nice. The land of Arcania. Well, hello there, my friends. Rafi here from the endgame investor with this week’s silver report for Arcadia Economics. And this week, it looks like world War three pretended to start twice. And some interesting thing happened in those minutes when world War three was pretending to start.

And it involves gold and silver and bitcoin. Meanwhile, a bomb dropped about 100 meters away from my house this week. And I’ll share the video on that. But in gold and silver news, what do we got? Well, the gold to crb ratio is right on the cusp of breaking through the 200 week moving average, which has only happened three times since 2006. And each time it has happened, it has been the start of a prolonged bull trend.

Also on the cusp of happening is a golden cross in the gold to crB, meaning the gold to commodities ratio, which has only happened twice since 2006. And each time has happened, it has led to an even bigger bull trend in both metals. The gold versus s and P 500 ratio appears to have reached a head and shoulders bottom. We should be heading up from here. Ubs, remember that bank that took over Credit Suisse? Well, they need another $25 billion bailout, which is nice.

And mega banks mega pump the gold price, but they cant even say the truth about what theyre talking about. And when does silver take over in the gold to silver ratio finally fall to around 20 to one or 15 to one? Well, well take a look at a chart from late 1970s, and it took about a year from 1979 to 1980. And also ill show you that a 20 to one ratio, around 15 to one, not quite 51, but lets say 21, which is pretty good.

Also, it’s a very normal thing even in modern times. In the 1970s, that’s where silver was. But let’s get into it. We’ve got a lot to talk about. And first, this week’s silver report is sponsored by Wartuna mine, symbol FSM. New news out this week is exciting. It is that they found a lot more silver. So April 15, Fortuna silver Mines is pleased to provide an update on its yesy vein exploration program at the San Jose mine in Mexico.

We haven’t heard about silver in a while from, from Fortune, and they’ve been concentrating on gold in Africa. But here we have drilling on the Yesi vein since the initial discovery hole in August 2023, has continued to establish a well defined system with recent results such as 1327 grams, which is 1. 3 ton of silver equivalent over an estimated true width of 3 meters. That’s true width, not false width.

Here are the results of the program. Five drill points here, 1. 3 ton of silver equivalent over here. Down here you have 2. 9 ton of silver over an estimated true width of 2. 4 meters and 472. 15 meters. And drilling on this vein will continue. Additional drilling with three drill rigs will continue to test the depth, strike and infill of the current se vein extent. Refer to appendix one for full details of the se vein drill holes and assay results.

If you want to see the full results for yourself, check out fortunasilver. com and look at the drilling results. And so, Fortuna silver is not done with silver yet. Of course. They are now a balanced gold and silver mining company. And so if we do head to a 15 to one ratio, as I believe we will, Fortuna will benefit spectacularly, as it should. And with that, on with this week’s silver report for Arcadia Economics.

Okay, the first slide I’m going to share here is that we’ve discussed the gold to commodities ratio. And I’ve said in the past, I think that was last week or two weeks ago or maybe both, that we’re not really in a gold to serve or silver bull market quite yet. We’re in a commodities bull market and gold and silver are moving on pace with the rest of the commodity complex.

Well, we’re about to have a series breakthrough here on two metrics. Technically, this is the gold to CRB ratio. And you see here that the 200 week moving average is about to be broken through. The 200 week moving average here we see 8. 16. And the higher this goes, the higher the gold prices relative to other commodities, meaning the more profitable miners become. So if you’re waiting for the breakout of mining stocks, it will be when this graph goes a lot higher.

I think we could head to the old time highs of, what is it, 1615? Something like that. We will get there. It’ll take some time, but this chart is heading higher. So we have the 200 week moving average at 8. 16 and we are now at 8. 11. So we’re about to cross in the last two, three times we crossed that when we crossed the 200 moving averages here, here and here.

And all three times the ratio headed a lot higher, a lot quicker and we’re going to head there again. So if we go to another chart here is a very similar, it’s the same chart, but it’s a different indicator. Pretty similar indicator, actually. This is the golden cross. When the 50 week moving average heads above the 200 moving average, that’s considered a golden cross and that is even rarer.

It’s pretty similar. You could say it happened here four times, but let’s just say three. They kind of meant tangent here. The blue line, the red line didn’t quite cross. Maybe they did a little bit. So the last two times that this happened was 2006 and 2015. 2006 was the beginning of a massive gold and silver bull market relative to other commodities. It was really, really big. We went from here about one, from a ratio of one to about a ratio of, let’s say five or so.

A quintupling, really. And we’re about to hit that again. So the gold to silver. Sorry, the gold to CRB ratio, and that also includes the silver to CRB ratio, just a little bit more wobbly, is about to have a golden cross. And the gold and silver prices are going to start heading a lot higher, a lot faster than other commodities, and you’re going to see a lot of profits being booked by the miners, including our sponsor, Fortuna silver mines.

Now, I wanted to go into what happened this week. This is very interesting and a little bit personal because we had a bomb hit from Hezbollah about 100 meters from my house. Okay, so here’s what happened. We have apartments over here. Apartments over here. We have what was a fence, but there’s no fence. And there’s a hole, which you’ve seen. If we turn it around. You see that over here? If I zoom in, there is a piece of fence on that roof and it hit over there and broke that roof one block away.

And now there’s people pairing this house. Well, there you go. I don’t think this is going to lead to world War three. I think this is all a show on both sides. Neither side wants to go to war, thank God, because neither side has any leaders. Iran doesn’t have any leaders, and their people hate their leaders, and Israel doesn’t have any leaders, and our people hate our leaders.

So we have two instances here. This was on Saturday night, actually. I’m using Paxg. That’s a cryptocurrency. Not really. It’s a token backed by gold. So let’s assume it is backed by gold. And since the futures markets were not active at this hour, I have to use this chart because you can trade tokens whenever you want, 24/7 so this spike here is the equivalent of $3,000 an ounce for gold.

And what was happening here? This is when Iran attacked Israel with 300 whatever missiles of something or other. And the Pax G, the gold token, crypto, whatever it is, was spiking from, where was it? 2300 to about 3000. And what was happening to bitcoin? It was falling about 10%. And here we have. This just happened, I think, last night I woke up and I saw this. So I had to update this chart.

It happened again, not as serious because apparently Israel just like dropped a few bombs on Iran or something like that. It wasn’t real. It was like a theater thing. I think zero hedge called it toothless and it’s not real. It’s all. Everyone has to play their part in this stupid game. I don’t even know what game they’re playing. So we see here again that gold spiked and bitcoin fell.

So I believe this is a foreshadowing to what will come in the real end game when there’s a lot of panic. In a real sense, I think the bitcoin crowd is going to drop everything and sell all at the same time, and people are going to go into real money. And I think that is a necessity from a logical standpoint as well. Because from my perspective, bitcoin is a derivative of the dollar.

Not in the sense that it’s backed by dollars, but it has value because it has dollar value, whereas the dollar has value because it has gold value. So the dollar is a gold derivative. Bitcoin is dollar derivative. And when the dollar falls, everything above it in the pyramid falls, including bitcoin. And we have a foreshadowing of that. Could I be wrong? Yeah, but that’s my position. We’ll see what happens.

And I think we have two foreshadowings of that right here and now. The gold to s and P 500. This is gold relative to the S and P 500 relative to stocks. We’ve been in a bear market since the 2011 top here. So that’s going on 13 years, close to 13 years now. And it looks like we have a head and shoulders bottom here. Here’s the head in 2021, 2022.

Here’s the shoulders in 2018. And now in early 2024. Looks like February 2024. We’ve been heading higher. We broke above the 200 week and the 50 week moving averages here. We’ve poked above it several times here. I hope this is the last time we can start heading higher in a serious way. Gold relative to stocks. So that means that stocks are going to start falling hard relative to real money, as they should in a real deflationary environment where everything becomes denominated in gold and silver.

Ultimately, on the banking front, we have news from Reuters, UBS, remember that bank that took over Credit Suisse when Credit Suisse went bust? That was last year, something like that. So UBS, they need another $25 billion bailout. So it says here UBS added capital needs of 15 to 25 billion are realistic. Swiss minister says instead of calling it a bailout, they’re calling it capital needs, which is the same thing, but you call it a different name, people don’t panic.

So we have here these paragraphs from Reuters estimates that swiss bank will require another 15 billion, 25 billion capital under government proposals aimed at making the banking sector more robust. More robust. Robust. That’s a good, that’s a good word. That makes people feel nice. Robust are about right, Switzerland’s finance minister was quoted as saying on Tuesday. That’s right, robust. Those orders of magnitude are plausible. Swiss finance Minister Karen Keller Sutter.

That’s a lot of ers, told the Tagus, Tagus and Zeiger newspaper. Keller Sutter his mom must be a feminist or something. Another crime against society. Hyphenated names. Hey lady, pick a name. Would you please pick a name? Hi, I’m Emily Jericho Fortescue. Hi, I’m George. Me off YouTube was speaking after the swiss government last week set out proposals to tighten regulation for banks deemed too big to fail, particularly B’s, which said the lender would face more stringent capital requirements in the future.

So they have stringent capital requirements. In order to meet those stringent capital requirements, the government will give them $25 billion and then that’s really stringent. That’s nice. We have another article here from Bloomberg. So I titled it mega banks, megapump gold price targets. But they can’t even say the truth. Gold edges higher after Powell signals no rush to cut rates. Well, that’s odd because the mainstream media always says that higher rates or rates higher than would otherwise be.

For example, when the Fed doesn’t want to cut, that should lead gold to go lower and silver to go lower. But not here. They don’t really address that point. So it says Bloomberg here. Gold edged higher as traders digested Jerome Powell’s comments, signaling of the Federal Reserve has no plans to lower interest rates in the near term. For gold traders, Powell’s remarks didn’t break much new ground, although his comments suggested a make rate cut is off the table and June is increasingly unlikely.

Swap markets show the Fed will only begin easing in September after indicating a July. Indicating July a week ago. Here’s the key sentence. Lower rates are generally positive for gold as it pays no interest. Well, they can’t even say or address the, the issue that the Fed is saying that they’re not going to cut rates and gold heads higher anyway. The truth is, when the currency is backed by so much debt, I think about 93% of the dollar is backed by either treasury debt or mortgage backed security debt.

When you raise rates in that environment, 93% of the backing of the dollar gets cut in price and the Fed has losses, and that destroys the purchasing power of the currency. In this environment, the higher rates go, the lower the dollar goes and the higher gold and silver go. But they don’t address that. They can’t even say it, say it. Say it. All right, I’ll say it. Here are their price targets.

Citigroup raises 2024 gold estimate to 23 50 an ounce and made a massive 40% upward revision to its 25 2025 forecast to 28 75. It said in a note that came after Goldman Sachs group said Friday that metal was in an unshakable bull market, raising its year end prediction to $2700. So the banks are coming around a little bit late. It’s going to be a lot worse than that.

We’re going to head past 28 75. I think we’re going to hit $3,000 this year and passed it. But I’ve been wrong on timing before. I’m not so great on timing, but I know what is going on fundamentally and logically. Here is a nice little chart that I made. I put that red in with paint. We’re wondering when silver is going to finally overtake gold. I’ve shown this from the 1970s.

I’ve shown gold versus silver in the 1970s. This is the gold to silver ratio in the 1970s. So from about 1973, right, 1973 to 1979, gold to silver ratio was stuck in a range of, let’s say around 40, a little bit below 40, 39 38, whatever that is. And when did it finally head towards 15 to one in the 1980 top? Well, that was beginning in 1979. We’re about 40 here and we head to about 15 in 1980.

So in the final year of the 1970s rally, that is when silver overtook gold. And that’s what I think is going to happen now in the final year of this bull market, which I think we’re either in or very, very close to, silver is going to overtake gold pretty quickly and we’re going to head near 2015 to one. And the last chart I want to show you will confirm this.

This is the chart of silver in 1970, just before the gold window was closed by Richard Nixon. May his memory be for a Nixon. I put a red line here where the average price of silver is. In 1970. I eyeballed it. Whatever. So let’s say about 180. So in 1970, we know that gold was $35 an ounce and 180, if you take that, it’s about a 20 to one gold to silver ratio.

So in the sixties, in 1971, gold to silver ratio was about 20 to one. So that’s where it is normally. So people who say that a 15 to one ratio is unachievable. No, no, it’s pretty normal. And we will get there when the public figures out what is going on. And they can’t afford gold, so they head into silver. Right now, the banks are chasing gold, which is why gold is heading higher and silver’s heading higher, too.

But not really that fast, because the public hasn’t woken up yet. But when they do, the power of the public is a lot more powerful than the power of even the mega banks, because there’s like 6 billion people in the world, and there’s only, like, I don’t know, a handful of mega banks, and they don’t really have that much money. They’re bleeding and they’re failing. And, you know, UBS needs bailouts.

So, yes, we are headed to a 20 to 115 to one ratio, which is why I’m a silver stagger. It’s going to be a lot more volatile than gold, which is why I also hold gold. And we’ve seen what happens when there is panic of a possible world war three end game scenario. Gold and silver go up, bitcoin goes down. Will that happen in the actual endgame? I don’t know for sure, but it certainly seems that way.

This is Rafi with the endgame investor with this week’s silver report for arcade economics. You can sign it to be an endgame investor. Subscriber at Substack and check out my free articles there. And if you feel a little bit endgamey, then you can be my patron on Patreon, where I discuss my biblical angle on this stuff. And as always, I’ll see you guys next week, and happy stacking.

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