Here Cones the Sell Off | I Allegedly

➡ Bob Kudla from Trade Genius advises that tech stocks are currently overvalued and likely to decrease in value, with potential losses for those investing now with Dan from I Allegedly. He suggests that the market is in a bubble that could burst, leading to a significant market correction. Kudla recommends investing in gold and silver, which he predicts will increase in value. He also discusses the volatility of Bitcoin, suggesting it could reach a high before experiencing a significant pullback.

➡ The stock market may seem stable, but there’s a lot of insider selling happening, which could be a warning sign. Big names like the Walton family and Jeff Bezos have sold billions worth of stock. The speaker believes we’re heading into a recession and that tech stocks will struggle. They also think that real estate won’t be a good investment for several years, and that banks, especially smaller ones, are in trouble due to bad loans. They suggest investing in oil, gold, and bitcoin, which they believe will hold their value.

➡ This text talks about various financial topics. It mentions that if the stock market falls, interest rates might be cut. It also discusses the high cost of living, with food inflation and expensive rents, and how people are cutting back on expenses. The text also suggests that mergers between companies might happen due to financial struggles, and it ends with a recommendation to invest in energy, gold, and silver.

Hey, it’s Dan. Welcome back. You’re watching. I allegedly, and by popular demand, can’t keep them away. Bob Kudla from trade genius is here. And thanks, Dan found me so I couldn’t escape. No, I love these because they always build this crescendo of questions that they have for you. And with Easter at the end of the month, everybody is anticipating this is going to be a real problem. So thank you for being here.

Thanks for having me. Okay, so first things first. You were talking as we were walking up about certain things going down since we talked last with this bull run. What’s down right now? Cover. You just ran through a litany of them. The mag seven s are down between seven and 14%. So last time I was on if you bought Apple or Amazon or Google or Microsoft, they’re all down.

Some are down double digits. Okay? And I think that’s played out. The only thing really keeping the markets up right now is SMCI and Nvidia, the two AI stocks. And they are what we would call outrageously, obnoxiously overvalued. So if anybody’s buying those stocks now, you’re guaranteeing yourself a loss over the next couple of years. Remember, these stocks have gone down twice, 70% from their highs, okay? In 2000 for Nvidia and 2008 for Nvidia.

So these things are not magical mystery tours here. Say that one more time. They went down how much? 70%. You can look at it. Wow. Nvidia hit a high. Nvidia rode every tech wave. They rode the 2000 tech wave for the Internet. They rode the crypto wave in 2000, not the crypto wave. They rode the crypto wave this time and then the AI wave. And now every time they hit a high, they go down 70%.

So they’re called price for perfection. When you buy a company like that was my job. I bought companies for my company. And you look at how fast can you return the cash. And if I couldn’t return the cash that they gave me to buy the company in six years, we consider that a failure of an acquisition. Nvidia, it’ll take you 25 to 30 years to get your money back.

If you bought it as a private investor, this is pure speculation. I hope I have 25 or 30 years left. Yeah, well, you don’t want to be waiting to get your money back until you die. But the point there is that we’re just living in a massive bubble. And when these things break, they break hard. And we’re probably not looking at a 45% correction when this thing’s all over.

So this next sell off we’re having is going to be short and it’s going to take us into the end of the quarter here. And then April into May is usually a bullish time for the market. When that fails this summer is when it’s going to be all over and it’s going to grind down. You have to look no further than March of 2000 for tech companies. So they popped into March and then they didn’t bottom until 2003.

So two and a half years. And what went up in that time? Oil and gold. And we’re seeing the same rotation start to happen now. Okay, couple things. Bob runs trade genius and he has always been so kind to us. He sets up discounts and bundles, he calls them where he gives you discounts. And if you go to danlovestrading. com, you can take a look at that and get to Bob’s platform.

We’ll talk about that later. But you mentioned gold. Okay, my favorite investment, gold and silver. Right now driving here, they were talking about gold’s going to, gold’s at an all time high. It’s prepared to hit its next test at. So our measured move is at 23 70. People are saying 2400. I think that’s probably fair. And two weeks ago silver started to move. Last week gold started to move.

And on Friday the gold miners started to move. Okay. So we started positioning ourselves in the gold miners and silver miners. Dan will always ask me, well, which ones to buy. Well, my favorite silver miner is heclam. My favorite gold miner is barrack gold. And then I also bought some know, you guys can look that one actually their earnings are so on Wednesday. So you can check to see how they’re going to project out into the future.

But really good. And then once they start cutting interest rates, the Fed, then you want to look at wheat and precious metals. Their finance here of gold and silver mines. And they do really well in that environment. So yeah, this move is just starting. So bitcoin is leading and gold and silver going to play. Know, one thing you have is you have a podcast where you talk a lot about everything that’s going on daily in the market.

And because cryptocurrencies are so popular right now, you’ve been covering that a lot lately. And so check out Bob’s podcast on YouTube daily and I’ll make sure I leave the link down there below. But let’s use bitcoin right now. What do you think is going to happen with bitcoin right now? It’s shot up a ton over the course of just, I want to say a week, but it’s been less than that.

It’s been just a few days. Yeah, it’s up 75% since the beginning of February. So it was. See, what happens in the market here is all time high is kind of like a magnet. And so there was a lot of option activity at the 69,000, $70,000 level. So it draws prices into these, they’re called gamma moves into these option strikes. And so went ahead and hit it Tuesday, went ahead and hit 69,000, went over a couple of hundred, and we got the expected pullback because people took profit at all time highs.

And so our view is as long as it maintains 58, 59,000, we think that’s a good pullback. Anything under 55,000 would then consider to be a failed move. But if it maintains that, then with the having coming up here in the next five to six weeks, we expect a move and it could be as powerful. Our work suggests it gets 109, 113,000 and then we’re going to get a more significant pullback from there.

Okay, so you think it could pull back, shoot up to 109,000, 110,000 and then come back again. Right. God, buying opportunity after buying opportunity. Guys, that’s crazy. Yeah, the markets are getting volatile now, so they’re actually being really good for trading. I mean, you’re starting to see moves that are in some of these names. I mean, if you’re a day trader and you’re trading like Mara, you had like three or four trades in the last two or three days of three or $4 each, you can make your monthly nut just trading these things back and forth and hopping on and off.

But on the swing side, you’re going to make a lot of money here with oil, gold, silver miners now. And bitcoin already moved. Bitcoin front ran those guys. But there’s going to be a lot of move for people that want to be long term swing traders. But tech, get out of tech. Tech is dead. Tech is dead. Okay, before we leave this, okay, you’re not a fan of the altcoins, like Shiba Inu and Dogecoin and all that other stuff? I mean, there’s a few things you like.

What are they right now? Oh, I just like bitcoin and the bitcoin miners. Okay. So yeah, the thing with the altcoins is that there’s a million of them. Right. And if you’re a us citizen, you’re limited to which ones you can buy and when bitcoin’s moving, bitcoin’s the elephant, so everybody’s going to hop on. Look, when bitcoin started to move, they started selling the stock market off Dan, so people could put money in the bitcoin move.

Now bitcoin made the move, they’re going to probably push money back into the stock market again. That’s what happens. And they’ll suck out of all coins and they’ll buy know there’s so many of them, they can just keep producing them like rabbits. Okay, so the tech sector you think people should stay away from, and then as far as silver itself, do you think that we could see a high spike in silver right now? Yeah, I mean, look, the suppression is so great that you really can’t put a target on it.

But I always said that $30 silver in their term is possible and we can even get up to $5,000 in gold on this next move. Wow. Just because they suppress it with short contracts and as they lift them off, you have this natural push up higher. But I’d be happy with a 10% or 15% move in gold and silver because you’ll get 25 30% moves in the miners.

Okay, great. Okay, as far as other stuff that you think, you think that there’s going to be a sell off between now and the end of the month, not to pinpoint you, but do you think that that could happen? Yeah, I mean, that’s what our market work tells us. It suggests it happens, but if it doesn’t happen by Easter, then we’re going to get a crack up boom, higher into Memorial day.

Okay? So right now the market’s been flat, but what’s been happening underneath is that you’re getting fooled. It’s a mirage. So they hold certain sectors up and then they’re selling things off underneath it. We’ve had the biggest insider selling ever in the market. I just heard the Walton family driving here today. Somebody sent me a text that the Walton family sold another $8 billion worth of stock, only to rival our main man, Jeff Bezos.

And Jamie Dimon sold hundreds of millions of dollars of the stock. First time ever. Yeah, first time ever. You don’t listen to him on bitcoin because he has a gameplay, but you listen him on stock stuff. Every time he bought shares in Morgan, they rocketed this first time he’s ever sold. That should tell you everything you need to know about how you should be positioned. He’s the smartest guy on Wall street, okay.

Next to Nancy Pelosi. Okay. So as far as, what do you think about natural gas? And you think that that’s love? It started to move already, so they’ve been suppressing that moving up nicely. We’re in position with EQT, we’re in position with Devon energy. There’s a few other names out there that are doing well. And there’s probably six week move in natural gas, six to ten week move in oil, and then you can put those on the shelf again for the summer.

Okay. And then you always like uranium. You think uranium is going to be a good play long term for that. Lithium mines, what do you think about that? Nothing. I don’t like them. I mean, people aren’t buying electric cars, so I don’t know why people would be buying lithium. I got to do a test drive in a cyber truck. And I have to admit that was pretty amazing.

It was an amazing vehicle. Like, I called it a luxurious tank. This guy had the souped up model, but it’s a rich guy’s toy, as far as I could see. Well, that’s the whole thing is if you live in an apartment, how practical is electric car for you? It’s not at all. That’s the problem. I mean, look, Toyota is going to win this war with the hybrid approach.

I’ve had a few. They’re great cars. They’re just reliable and good gas mileage and everything like that. Yeah. So I’m not a big fan of lithium and copper has not been doing anything they call doctor that has a phd in economics, and that’s just telling you that the economy is starting to drift down. ISM reports have been awful. All you have to do is look at the Warren report, the WRN report, every day.

Those are companies that are laying off more than 100 people. They give 30 day notices every day, company after company after company after company. And then we’re lied and told that unemployment is at an all time low and we’ve had hundreds of thousands of people lose their jobs this year. Well, that’s another mirage. If I get laid off from a job and I take two jobs, they said I gained a job.

Yeah. So it’s ridiculous. What you look at, if you really want to know the macro on that is you look at what taxes are being collected by the state and federal governments, and they’re down significantly because people aren’t making the money. We’re definitely slipping into a recession and it’s going to be stagflationary. So that’s why I think oil and gold, bitcoin will keep their value. And I think tech is going to have a problem.

I think we’re going to repeat 2000 and 2003 so people can look that up. And I talk about that in the podcast, too. So recession is in the bag. There’s no way we’re going to escape it with what’s happening. Okay. And you’re not a fan of real estate right now you see real estate as being a mod. I think last time you said it was six, seven years before real estate will be a good investment again.

Well, residential real estate, commercial real. We’re going to see ghost towns just right up the street here. A whole commercial building is going to go out and they’re going to try to convert it into condos. I grew up in Mount on, Pennsylvania, so if anybody’s from Mount on. Hey, so the PP and L building that’s for sale, that’s the iconic Pennsylvania power and light building, 25 stories. You can see it from 30 miles away.

And it’s being sold for $20 a foot. Yeah, that’s 100 foot. Unbelievable. So, I mean, that’s ridiculous. My friends that are in the foreclosure space went to a conference this last weekend to get approved through all the different commercial lenders to handle the foreclosure business. And they said, dan, we could have been there for three more days because there were so many people to talk to and to get approved from.

And there’s going to be such an abundance of banks that people, literally the owners, turn the keys back into the bank. But some of them have tenants, so they have to be managed and maintained, rents collected and things like that. So we’re going to see a real ordeal with all this stuff. Yeah, the banks are in big trouble and the small banks we’re going to see don’t buy regional banking ETF either.

If it’s going up, that’s your opportunity to get out because they’re in auto loans and they’re in commercial lending and they’re in construction loans and all of those are going to get hammered. Okay? So again, if you guys are interested, go to danlovestrading. com and take a look at trade genius and have access to Bob. Bob has different bundles and his platform has been great. You’ve been doing this for eight years now? Yeah, going on the 9th, 9th year.

And the cool thing with that is that he’s got everything from chat rooms there. He’s got recommendations and you can get access to Bob on a daily basis. But if you like metals, crypto stocks, individual trades, etfs, they cover everything. Over there to options. Yeah. And the shippers are still doing fine. So with the Red Sea, they’re playing a game now, if you notice, they keep saying there was going to be a ceasefire in Israel and it drops the shippers.

But then whenever they do that, just buy the shippers, because two days later, they say that was just a rumor, and then the shippers go right back up again and they’re paying all double digit dividends, so it’s basically free money. And they said that’s going to be a mess at least through the rest of the year. Do me a favor and explain. Okay. In a few weeks, there’s going to be something called bitcoin having.

And could you just, in a minute, just explain real quick what bitcoin having is? Yeah. I mean, really simple is that when the bitcoin miners are doing the calculations, whoever does it the most cost effectively and the quickest gets paid in bitcoin. Well, when they reach a certain amount of tokens that have been created, they cut the reward in half. And that’s what’s happening with having. That’s called the having.

A lot of times you get these big run ups before and after, and then you go into another bitcoin, what they call bear market. The only thing interesting about it this time is this is the first having with a lot of retail. So we don’t know if it’s going to be more volatile with the moves, but bitcoin has been very volatile. We’ve had, like six or 780, 90% drawdowns before it goes new highs, or people are just going to hold it and you’re going to get a slight dip and you’re going to get a higher move.

Remember, people are going into bitcoin because they don’t trust the banking system. And so I don’t think Joe Biden and Janet Ellen has given anybody any kind of encouragement to be in fiat right now. So I think you’re going to see more and more people trying to push into these dips on bitcoin. And I think gold and silver have probably seen their lows for a couple of years.

Wow, that’s great. So gold, silver could have seen their lows, and that’s good. People that have gold in their retirement and things like that, that’s a good thing. Shippers are good. Everything you liked last time. But you think that there could still be a pullback right now in the stock market? Yeah. I mean, look at Tuesday’s pullback. The market wasn’t supposed to go down. It dumped and so it doesn’t take much to light a fire.

You throw a snowball off the mountain, you can end up with an avalanche. So there’s so much leverage in the system right now that we don’t know what’s going to trigger it. We do know that if there’s a day that market goes down one and a half percent, it could cause a cascade. So always watch for that, because the way the leverage is built into these zero days to expiration options that are out there, it’ll force a lot of selling.

So one and a half percent could be the key. Once you see that in either. Are you talking s and p? Nasdaq. Just s and p. Okay. During the day, if you see a one and a half percent move, it’ll force the dealers into selling, and then that could cause a bigger sell off move. Okay, let’s see. Anything with utilities, anything like that. Boring. Boring. Okay. You want to make enough money, but there are some really interesting things.

My family’s biggest position is ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil is pushing up now 106, probably going to salt the highs at 121. But there’s a tracking stock called Xomo, and they do the selling of the calls for you, and they’re paying a 15% dividend. Really? Yeah. So I own some of that, too. And then I own TLTW that does the same thing for TLT. That’s your thing, too. When Powell has to start cutting, TLT is going to move.

And that should be a pretty good move going into recession. As know one thing? There’s an article that I did over the weekend. I covered this, and Powell says the economy is great, it’s very strong. There really is no need to cut interest rates right now. And you don’t know if this was taken from 20 different articles and they put it together for this one CNN article or if not.

But do you think there’s a possibility that they won’t cut interest rates until summer? Oh, they’re not going to cut in March, okay. That’s for sure. And look, inflation is creeping back up. If he cuts into inflation, he may light a bonfire. So I think they’re going to wait till probably June. Here’s the deal. I don’t think they’re going to cut rates unless the stock market falls. Okay.

Because that’s their customer, you and I. Screw us, but that’s their Wall street. So as long as Wall Street’s making money, he’s not going to cut interest rates. Inflation for food is at the highest level. It’s been since the Gulf war, Orange county this week was named the most expensive place to rent an apartment. And affordability is a huge problem here in Orange county. Even though Irvine company, which is the big developer out here owned by Donald Perenn, they announced that they have just a new 246 unit apartment complex that nobody can afford to move into for $6,000 a month.

And it’s a problem, guys, people cannot afford where rents are at. People cannot afford just survival, to say the least. Yeah, people are getting choked out. So when you mentioned food. So we bought a couple of food companies going into earnings, one of them was 33% gainer, another one was 13% gainer. So if you think food inflation, buy Kroger, because as it goes through the system, right. They’re buying it at this price.

They’re holding an inventory. They sell at this place price. Do you think that the merger will go together with Albertson’s? Kroger and Albertson’s? Could be because nobody’s making any money even in the food business. So you’ll probably end up seeing here one supermarket, Trader Joe’s, Costco, Walmart. I think that’s what’s, we talked about this last year, about how you’re going to see more companies merge out of necessity over, hey, we’re going to build this super company.

It was announced this week that spirit and JetBlue are done. And that spirit gets their $69 million consolation payoff and they may be finished as a result of not having this merger happen. Yeah, you can see it everywhere where we live here. Dan and I live in south Orange county, but there’s too many grocery stores. It’s kind of like on every block. I’m kind of complaining, but not complaining because I don’t want to drive farther now because the ones right up the street from me.

But people in California, LA Fitness is closing their center here in Mission Viejo, closing it. And I’ve been noticing, I don’t know if you guys noticed, the gyms are getting emptier and emptier. So people are cutting back on even the smallest exercise cable. People are eliminating everything they can, extras right now, which if you guys follow this channel, that’s what we recommend. Not everybody’s out buying $125,000 Tesla cyber truck, but you’ve got to work on your personal finances, your financial fitness.

I mean, it’s really important, to say the least. Yeah, I mean, you got to grind it. I have a neighbor that every year, as a general rule, calls everybody that he does business with personally and business wise, and asks for a discount. Oh, wow. He just asks for a discount. And whether he gets it or not, it doesn’t matter. He just says, you know what, if I don’t ask, I don’t get it.

You’ll be shocked that people give it to him. People give it to him and you have to do it in a nice way. He just says, hey, I’ve been looking at my finances. I got a call from one of your competitors. They have really attractive offer. I want to give you an opportunity to save your, like they send you over to a different department to save your business department.

When I worked at corporate America, we had to save your business department. Somebody said, we’re leaving. I sent it over to save your business department. And because it’s cheaper to give somebody a discount than try to get a new customer. And so try it. You’d be shocked. Right now we’re going to see. I don’t want to call it a crash, okay? You gave me two reprimands already today for that sell off.

You could see happening between now and Easter still, that could potentially happen. Yeah, I’m expecting it. Okay? But it doesn’t mean anything to me because I’m not in the stuff that’s selling. I’m in energy. That’s where you should be. Energy. Gold, silver. Because look, market on Tuesday went down a lot. Gold, silver, oil up. Okay? So guys, please don’t forget to hit the like button. Please don’t forget to subscribe to the channel.

Take a look at Trade Genius. Take a look at Bob’s podcast every day on YouTube as well. But go to danlovestrading. com to get Bob’s discounts and to get access to Bob. And again, thank you so much every month for doing this lately because of the, at the end of the year you made some predictions, so we’re getting a lot more mail and everybody has the questions for you.

So I am always grateful for that and I appreciate it. And if something comes up during the month, I’m happy to shoot something your way. Send me the emails, guys, because he does answer them and stuff. So I really appreciate this and that you do this and we will see you guys very soon. Onward and upward. And thanks for being here. No, thanks for having me. .

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