Gold Silver or Bitcoin: Jamie Dimon Is Not Your Friend | Arcadia Economics
Summary
Transcript
These numbers are the most important numbers out there. 1995, 2055 and 2085. Anything else inside those numbers? If you’re a stacker, you don’t care. If you’re a long term trader, you don’t care. If you’re a short term trader, you’re not looking at them right, you’re looking at other numbers. When one of those numbers goes off, a phone rings, an alert goes off. Paul Tudor gets woken up out of his sleep and he goes, oh, we’re trading above 2085.
Buy me 5000 contracts. I’m going back to bed. Click. That’s what they do. Welcome to the Daily Gold and silver fix with Vince Lancey, where each morning he brings you the precious metals news and insights to get you ready for your debt. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, I’m Vince. Let’s take a look at the markets little housekeeping. Why bricks 2024 and Nixon 1971 are the same thing.
That’s a short, I don’t know, maybe 13 minutes podcast I did as a follow up to something that was very popular, why they want the gold. And that’ll be out later on today for premium subscribers. And there’s the home page. So let’s get started. Today’s topics are gold’s most important technical levels. Really, you want to pay attention to these. And bitcoin’s having is not priced in. Dear Jamie Dimon, you’re not really helping anyone except yourself.
We know that. All right, moving on to that markets. The dollar is down ten at 100 and 367. Bond yields are up a basis point at 426. The SP is up eleven handles. The VIx is trading 1357, basically unchanged, down 16 basis points. Gold is up 661 at 2037. Silver is trading 22, 67, up 16 and a half cents. Platinum palladium are firmer. Platinum at 892, platinum 963.
Copper is trading 382, up 55 basis points. Oil is down $0. 24. Natural gas is down three cents at seventy seven, fifty seven and one hundred and sixty eight, respectively. Bitcoin is up a rocketing 5% at 57,390 and ethereum is up similarly, although not as much at 32,800. Grains are slightly higher. All right, so let’s start with the beginning. Gold’s most important levels. And Jamie Dimon is not your friend.
So let’s do the Jamie Dimon is not your friend part. Today’s quote is JP Morgan says bitcoin, having and ethereum upgrade are largely priced in. Today’s chart is bitcoin on a monthly basis going back to forever and the havings overlaid with RSI. Now we’re going to go over this and even if you’re not a bitcoin person, you’re going to get something out of this because this is about technicals and this is about sincerity among leaders and this is about thinking for yourself as opposed to letting someone else tell you what your opinion should be, including me.
Yesterday’s activity, precious metals, gold’s behavior was very constructive. It started out weak and that’s to be expected after a rally that we had all week, last week closing out on a Friday. Right. And we talked about that yesterday. And I’d have to say yesterday was a healthy pullback. And on Sunday we discussed the levels that I thought it had to hold and it actually did hold those levels.
So the market is stronger. Now. Silver, on the other hand, had a very bad day yesterday and silver is just in the clutches of people that are buying gold. Believe it or not, the biggest players in the world are buying gold right now. And those biggest players are spoofing silver lower to keep the price of gold down. I promise you that’s what’s going on and it will continue to go on until enough ctas get short and they get nervous and we’re going through that cycle again.
We had one of those last week. Oil. Oil is well after a big rally. Oil is in a range. We’ll have to look at that a little closer. Bonds, no real comment, no feel for that. The dollar, no big deal. Crypto had a strong day yesterday and then continued overnight. So let’s talk about that weeks data. Durable goods orders are today. Normally they’re important. I’m not saying they’re not important, but I don’t think people are buying durable goods right now.
That was like refrigerators and cars and things that people were buying during the pandemic. And I could be really wrong on this, but I just don’t think it’s as important as GDP or PCE or PMI. Notable headlines the US FTC said Monday that it is suing to block the merger of Kroger and Albertson, saying the combination of the two major grocers would result in higher prices for shoppers and lower wages for workers.
That’s true probably. And it’s probably also necessary given what’s going on in the world today. On Monday, Amazon officially becomes a member of the Dow Jones industrial average, replacing Walgreens. Keep in mind that Jeff Bezos just sold a chunk of his own Amazon. Chevron warned investors Monday that ExxonMobil and China’s Sinook are asserting they have a right to preempt the company’s bid for a stake in a prolific project off Guyana.
So that’s actually a geopolitical statement. That whole area is now in flux and will be at fire. Geopolitics. French President Macron said they think a russian defeat is indispensable for Europe’s security. No kidding. Macron also said european countries will increase sanctions on countries, helping Russia to bypass european sanctions. He didn’t say France was not in favor of sending troops to Ukraine. While he stands by strategic ambiguity on the issue, he’s thinking about sending troops to Ukraine.
U. S. President Biden said he hopes a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas can take effect by next Monday. And the US State Department said Hamas must accept the existing deal to reach a temporary truce in Gaza. Those two statements together, that’s good cop, bad cop. I would say there could be something going on. Meaning we may be planning something if they don’t abide by the treaty or the truce potential.
All right, markets, metals, charts, gold. Very constructive day consistent with Sunday discussion. I think I said that silver is getting slapped around by gold buyers. The cycle is starting together, starting again. I will talk about the cycle in a second. Oil is trying to decide after CTA is covered. Jamie Dimon and the havening. All right, let’s look at the charts. Right? Let’s stay on the charts and we’re going to do gold first.
Actually, I have it at the bottom. Let’s just walk through this. All right. All right. The most important number in gold for support is from a firm that your macro discretionary players use. They use several firms, but this is a number that they all have on their radar. And if the market’s going to go down, it’s going to go down after this number is breached. All right, so the firm says next.
As far as gold is concerned, the long term trend remains in a neutral position, but will turn bearish if bullion now breaks down and closes below 1995. That’s the April contract. I have that line right there for you. Okay. Pretty simple, pretty obvious, but that’s what the big boys are looking at. Okay, so anything in between here and there. Here in the number, I’m going to give you the upside.
That’s noise to them, resistance. This is the good stuff. However, on a more positive note, a move now above 2085 on a closing basis would improve the long term outlook to a moderately favorable position. Moderately. Probably wildly favorable, but that’s it. So there’s your range right now. Here’s the number that you have to look at. Now. In the meantime, the near term outlook is also neutral, but it is starting to shape up and a close above 2055 basis April will signal that the trading trend is finally turning positive again.
So I have all of those three lines here for you, right? So this is your support and this is your resistance. And inside that we get above here, you want to get moderately friendly. So I drew kind of a bull flag there, right? You heard me mention it before. So it seems like this bull flag comes in line with this 2055 area. Now, that’s April basis. So these numbers are the most important numbers out there.
1995, 2055 and 2085. Anything else inside those numbers? If you’re a stacker, you don’t care. If you’re a long term trader, you don’t care if you’re a short term trader, you’re not looking at them right. You’re looking at other numbers anyway. That’s the numbers that matter. That’s like all the other stuff in technical analysis. When one of those numbers goes off, a phone rings, an alert goes off.
Paul Tudor Jones gets woken up out of his sleep and he goes, oh, we’re trading above 2085. Buy me 5000 contracts. I’m going back to bed. Click. That’s what they do. We’re trading below 1995. The long says, oh, shit, sell my contracts out, I’m going back to bed. Click. That’s how they operate. 2055. They’re not going to wake Paul Tudor Jones up. They’re not going to wake Warren Buffett up.
They’re going to wake up his trader, 2055, what do you want to do? Yeah, I’ll probably buy 2000. Click, hang up. That’s what happens, right? And that’s how the market gets going. And that’s what happened in November. In November 30, the market settled above 2009. Spot 20, and someone said, really? December 3, buy me 5000 and boom, the market rallied $150. That’s going to happen again. Now they’re watching it, but these are the numbers that matter.
All right, moving on. The hui, the bane of everyone’s existence. I would have to say as far as the Hui index is concerned, it, along with the majority of the gold stocks, continues to act far worse than the bullion. And both the short and long term trends are still negative. In the meantime, for a sign that even the trading trend is turning moderately positive, this index must now close above 211.
Now, he doesn’t say if it’s on a daily or weekly. I’m going to go with a weekly. Okay, but we could be in that bottom now. But I’m not going to blow smoke up. You’re behind. Right? So those are the numbers that matter for gold. You should take those numbers, you should put them on your screen and you’d say when those numbers go off, either you’re going to make a decision or you’re going to get some popcorn and watch the fireworks.
Now, bitcoin, the having, right. Bitcoin is rocketing right now. It’s up 5%. It’s trading 57,000. In fact, let’s go back to. Let’s call it what it is. Let me get rid of my logarithm there. What did I say? We’ll go to the daily. Pardon me. This was my range, right? I’m like range bound. I don’t think it’s going to go much higher. Looks like they want to sell it.
If stocks come off, bitcoin will get hit hard. I thought, you know what, it went above that and the market’s going to go up. So I guess I’m not right, but I’m never wrong. Anyway, so it was a good technical level to trade in. And there you have it. That’s what’s going on in bitcoin. Bitcoin used to have God candles, used to call them God candles. They were 10% moves.
But you’re not going to see 10% moves anymore, I don’t think. I think you’re going to have 5% moves. And those are now your new God candles because the market is being capped. Now, getting back to the actual halving, the blue vertical lines are when bitcoin haven’t, or halves or half fittings, if you believe Finney created bitcoin. The next one is due April 22, I think. Now, what you’re going to see on this chart, if you’re a bitcoin person, hear me out.
Jamie Dimon is not your friend, okay? So when he says, I think the half inning is priced in, he has no idea what he’s talking about, or he does, and he’s just not being your friend. But people that understand bitcoin will probably say, yeah, I get this, right? People that don’t but are interested, you want me to talk to them and you want me to help them out.
Historically, bitcoin will halfing, whatever you want to call it, production will be cut in half. Right? And then afterwards, the market will have a nice bull run. And when that nice bull run starts, it actually frequently coincides with RSI going above 70%. Now, 70% RSI is usually an overbought situation, but bitcoin persists and stays overbought when the 70% is hit and it’s during right after a happening. So I’ll show you what I’m talking about.
Here’s bitcoin. There’s the happening. Hits 70%. Keeps going. This is supposed to be where you get out of your lungs. You follow me? Right, here’s bitcoin. Here’s the happening. Time goes by. Hits 70%. Rallies, more rallies to here, right? It stays above 70% longer than an asset should. Here’s a 2020 happening. Hits the happening. Hits. Market goes sideways a little higher. Hits 70%. Run up higher. Remember, this is log run up a lot higher.
So here we are today. My logo kind of messed it up, but having hits, let me just put it to you this way. We are at 70% in the RSI right now in bitcoin, and the market is starting to roof already. So if you want to say to me that bitcoin is discounting the having sooner, I’d say, yeah, look. Bitcoin discounted the having afterwards. Bitcoin discounted the having afterwards.
The bitcoin discounted the having afterwards. The RSI came up afterwards. Afterwards. Afterwards. The RSI is hitting before the having. Now. Now you want to say it’s getting ahead of itself. I agree. You could say that. But you cannot tell me that this market is not becoming more efficient, becoming more responsive to news, becoming more linked to what’s going on anyway. So let’s see what happens. Right, but I just want you to know that when someone like a bank or Jamie Dimon says, I think it’s discounted, he’s talking his book, he probably wants to buy more anyway.
So there you have it. He’s the bad cop in the good cop situation. Bitcoin is now at an RSI of 70%. Bitcoin is now roofing. It could be the overbought scenario that you want to sell. Right. And that makes Jamie Dimon right, even though he’s not right. But the market, what you can say from this is undoubtedly the market is becoming more efficient. I mean, come on, you have a having.
And the market doesn’t rally until months later. Months later. Months later. The market is rallying now. And that’s the wonder of having a spot ETF. The market gets more efficient. Anyway, you have the levels for gold, you have the analysis for bitcoin. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s gold and silver fix with Vince Lancey, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin precious metals where this week only 2023 1oz.
Silver Britannias are only 315 over spot, which you can get by calling Miles Franklin at 833-26-4653 you please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. .
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