Gold Price Stays In Range Even As Open Interest Drops | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ Arcadia Economics talks about how gold prices surged to over 2400 in April but have been stable for twelve weeks despite constant selling efforts. Vince Lancy’s daily market rundown discusses key levels for silver and gold, the resilience of gold, and a weekly report on precious metals. The report also covers the performance of other markets including the dollar, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. The commentary suggests that the market is absorbing the selling, indicating the presence of physical buyers.

➡ The market for gold and silver is showing signs of rallying, with gold being considered bullish when it’s stable. The market is in a good place, with positive and neutral outlooks. If gold goes over 23 42, and silver over 30 32, it could trigger a significant increase. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and trade wars continue, with potential impacts on the market.

➡ The Federal Reserve’s future actions are uncertain, with some banks predicting rate cuts while others disagree. The market’s performance is being closely watched, with some concern over potential weak monthly close. However, American buying is back, indicating positive market activity. Miles Franklin, a precious metals company, offers competitive pricing on gold and silver, including a special on silver kilo bars.

Transcript

After registering its annual quarterly and 100 week momentum. I’m back. Breakouts in early March charts and prior reports. Gold surged to over 2300 in the first week of April, and shortly after over 2400 after that surge. Price action has wandered sideways, sideways for twelve weeks, constantly at their doubt game and so far, with much time spent on their clock, sellers have little to show for their constant efforts. Welcome to the morning markets and medals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals and financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince.

Good morning everyone, I’m Vince Lancy and this is the market rundown for Monday, June 24. Today’s market rundown we’re going to look at some key levels for silver and gold for the week. It’s an important week, actually. And we’re also going to take a look a little bit more at how resilient gold is through Goldfix’s eyes, as well as a peek at Michael Oliver’s weekly report which speaks about precious metals heavily this week. Before we do that, let’s take a look at the markets. The dollar is 105.54, down 28. That was after being up early in the evening.

Ten year yields are unchanged on the bid side of 426 and a half. The S and P 500 is 5470, up 1.4. Handles rough couple days on the back of Nvidia, giving up leadership or selling off the VIX 13.8 up 61 basis points. Gold is up 462 at 23 26 after a massive sell off on Friday. Silver up eight cents at twenty nine point six one also had a self on Friday. Basically, Friday was an undoing of Thursday, plus some for the metals last week. Copper 442, ups up less than a penny. WTI 81.35 remains strong, up $0.40 today.

Natural gas, 273, up two cent. So there’s a little bit of a back off, but it’s still firmly above call 250 now. Bitcoin, rough couple weeks and getting worse right now. 60,880, down three and a half percent. Ethereum, 3300, down 100 points, also over 3%. The story there, although I’m not sure how it factors in. It could be a by the rumor, sell the news or vice versa type of play. But Mount Gox, which is like the first, the first major crypto exchange to default to investors. Their bitcoin has been released and they’re going to be paid back to people.

Now, whether that is intrinsically bullish or bearish for bitcoin, I don’t know. But I do know that the market is right now taking that news as well. There’s going to be more bitcoin sold into the market. Whether it’s real or not is unimportant as speaking as a metals person who has crypto, who has bitcoin and ethereum in his portfolio. This is what they did with the metals and they did it for 30 years. So buckle up. Palladium down 1090 trading 900 8160 and platinum trading 1000, the figure up 960. So that’s a 2% swing. Played him down a percentage point.

Platinum up percentage point. It’s pretty significant, although I don’t know why. Right, so. But we just know that they want the platinum. They don’t want the platinum as much. I think you’re going to hear this story is going to get more and more traction as you start to hear companies and countries say they’re going back to either internal combustion vehicles or hybrids. Something that’s going to use more platinum is coming out. That’s what it’s starting to feel like. This is the market getting ahead of some trend. I believe grains are mixed. Soybeans pretty strong, 11.64 up 7.5 cents.

Corn offered unchanged at a penny for 28.70 and wheat is 574, offered about a penny lower. Okay, here we go. So tentatively entitled silver and gold updates, nothing too exciting yet, but we’re going to have some. The commentary today will be something that I’ve been saying and sharing with premium subscribers for Goldfix. And that sideways has become bullish, which is a relatively new phenomena. And Michael Oliver’s work backs into it today. And from a technical point of view, he confirms what I’ve been saying or seeing for a while there. And that’s the premium portion of it on the front page.

We did put premium as well as free workup last week. We have an analysis of the debate between Brent Johnson and Louis. Gave or gave Michael Hartnett’s analysis. We have that we reposted this because I think it’s important because now the media and the banks are finally wrapping their heads around why gold is being bought other than the fact that China wants the gold. They’re coming up with reasons and these are reasons that we’ve given in December of 2023. So we’re just, I guess, flexing. Also there’s a boutique investment firm called BCA. Now, despite this title, they’re not bearish, but I think it’s a reasonable report to look at when you’re thinking about was a fake out or was gold’s rally last week a fake out or a breakout.

And you know, Friday would tell you that it was a fake out, but you don’t know. You don’t know. We’ll talk about that lots more. But let’s get to the, let’s get to the story. All right. Michael Oliver on a almost weekly basis, probably a weekly basis, the weekend report, 360 degree weekend report, which is an update on all the markets that he covers as well as what he’s focusing on or what’s changed or become more dynamic. And this week, like every week, he talks about stocks, oil, gold, silver, GDX and wheat. There’s some special attention on stocks this week as technically, I think the word he used was wobble.

And well, we’ve all been looking at the stock market wobble higher for the last year and a half. But let’s be fair. I mean the stock market is rallying one narrowing breadth and I think thats significant. However, were going to focus on excerpts from the gold and silver portion of what he said. Now before we get into what he said, I just want to throw a chart up there because ill be referencing this type of a chart. This was created using a database from one of the Gulfix founders, Randall Blava. And we use it on Sundays and that report will be out as well this weekend.

Today what you’re looking at is the yellow line or gold line is gold futures price and the red line below that is open interest, the blue line as well, but the red line is the actual open interest. And we’re going to use this chart and mark it up a little bit to show you from a different point of view what Michael’s saying to be true. So I was going to start with what we have, but let’s start with what Michael has here because he puts it more succinctly after registering its annual quarterly and 100 week momentum, I’m back.

Breakouts in early March, charts and prior reports. Gold surged over 2300 in the first week of April and shortly after over 2400 after that surge. Price action has wandered sideways for twelve weeks. That’s my emphasis there. Constantly at their doubt. I dig at the bears here, constantly at their doubt game. And so far with much time spent on their clock, sellers have little to show for their constant efforts. Now what he’s saying is twelve weeks are sideways and there’s been selling, there’s been buying as well, but the market hasn’t really budged much. Now before you push back and say, well, it hasn’t gone higher either.

No, we’re going to show why he’s actually right. Why there’s been selling that the market has absorbed and not buying that the market has kept low. Technical level, weekly neutral unless above 23 42. Okay, so what he’s saying is since the breakout in March here, I’ll bring it up for you. Since the breakout in March, that’s this line here, the market has gone sideways for twelve weeks. Now. It’s a big range sideways, we’re not used to that. But it is sideways. And he’s saying that it’s absorbed selling. And how do you know it’s absorbed selling? Well, I’m going to show you how.

The arrows denote open interest decreasing. And this market is driven, the futures market is driven by funds who get in the market rallies and then they sell it, driving the market lower. So starting from left to right, the market was higher off screen, the market dropped. The open interest dropped to the red hard line. Now I’m not saying that line is a hard line that you have to use technically, but it is a level that gives you an idea of when the open interest reverses. The market went up again. Open interest gets to a level, it starts to decline.

The market didn’t sell off. This is what’s happening now. Let me go to what Michael’s talking about. Michael saying the market has gone nowhere essentially for twelve weeks and the open interest has cratered. This is a sign of selling. This market is selling off. People are selling this market and it’s not going down. I’m going to tell you exactly what’s going on and then I’m going to show you in the previous what happened. The future speculators are selling right now and physical buyers are taking again. Those physical buyers are over the counter. They’re either central banks, I’m not so sure about that, or they’re sovereign wealth funds or they’re very big macro discretionary funds that like to trade a little bit more discreetly.

And you’d be right to say, how do you know that? And say, nobody knows that. But here’s the proof. Michael goes back and he talks about when the market started rallying in March. Well, I go back to December and we’ve been talking about this for a while. And it’s true. On December 3, December 4, gold made a violent spike high on that Sunday, Monday. And then it just proceeded to come off and it got slammed. But it got slammed, but it stayed here. Meanwhile, everyone and their mother, who was long speculatively sold, they got out. And for this two month period of time from literally what’s almost three months, from December 5 through February 28, the market went nowhere.

In a big range, but nowhere. And the open interest cratered. And then on March 1, back to Michael, the market starts to rally and the open interest ramps. This is american hedge fund and global hedge fund money coming in. You can ignore this one for now. Same thing. Then we get to this area here, and you have another slam down, regardless of why. But the market did come off its high here. And the open interest again starts to crater. That speculators getting out of the market, but the market doesn’t drop. See, this is not normal for gold.

Gold likes to sell off with the open interest. This goes up, that goes up, this goes down, that goes down, this goes up, that goes up, that goes down that the market’s not going down. So every time you get a red line down here, boom, the market’s down there. The next red line down here. Even lower markets up here. The next red line here, the market’s up here. So the market is making higher lows as the open interest is making its lows very significant. What happens in between those rectangles? Well, that’s the beauty of it, right? What happens in between is we rally rally base.

Rally little base. By the way, this little base here was also confirmed with open interest coming in, rally base coming back fully to what Michael’s saying. If his momentum indicators trigger and there’s a price for that, then this range will also be done and the market will go higher, which is why we say now in gold in this era, sideways is bullish. Now there are levels to get concerned about. Below those levels, sideways may not be bullish, but right now, if you had to close your eyes, you’re saying sideways is bullish. You’re no longer saying sideways is bearish as strongly as you used to say.

What I’m saying is we should all get over our trauma here. The market is in a good place, not going wood. All right, so that’s my observation on his comment, which is always good to hear when someone from a different discipline, a different approach agrees with you. Of course, there’s risk in that as well. But anyway, so here you go. For him, he’s pretty much positive and neutral with the market. If we have a weekly, I’m not sure if it’s a trade or a close, you’ll have to look at his report. But if we go over 23 42, that should reignite us out of the range.

Moving on to silver. Silver. He says if we get back up there again and it will likely break through that now, dual set of highs. If you’re a bear, you don’t want to even see silver trade this week. Up to 30 32 basis July futures, much less close above there. Consider it a secondary signal from this already upturning weekly momentum situation. Technical level 30 32 July futures. Here’s July futures for you. All right. He identifies first an obvious trend line. Now I’m approximating it. That’s not his trendline. And when we broke through the trend line, that’s a negation of that trend.

And I think he’s talking about these double highs here, the rallying to sell off. Now he says if the market gets up to 30 32, this shouldn’t be a problem. Ok, I believe those are the highs he’s talking about. I have to look at the report again. But what he’s basically saying is, look, we had a potential corrective phase that we went through. A note as a technician, I’ll say this to you. Whenever you see a trendline and you go through it violently, not meander through it sideways, that’s a good thing. Now can we go down? Of course we can go down.

But he’s saying if we get above 30 32, the momentum should reignite and this market should ramp higher above this area at least. Good news. So you have your levels, right? We’re getting levels here, right? So gold is 23 42, silver is 30 32. Move on to the GDX. The daily momentum factors we looked at last week, price versus three day average, have shifted to positive. Not wildly positive, but positive. GDX ended up with a positive week weekly momentum. Price versus three week average has a level to watch for further upturn. Technical level 33 98. I have not charted that we have much more of the metals portion of that report in premium.

Turning to market news, the news that we’re focused on today shows more battle lines being drawn on trade. So first of all, not on that topic. The US will be forced to build a massive increase to fund a massive increase in its budget deficit with short term debt, analysts have said, with consequences for money markets and the battle against inflation. Okay, here’s between the lines. We’re funding it with short term debt because the market won’t absorb long term debt. When you start seeing funding it with short term debt, start thinking financial repression is getting closer. It’s not here yet, but it’s getting closer.

China has agreed to enter talks with the EU over its decision to impose higher tariffs on chinese vehicles. Well, that’s all part of the trade wars. Chipmaker Nvidia became the most valuable company, publicly traded in the US for a period last week, topping Apple and Microsoft. And then it promptly sold off for two days. Apple is withholding a raft of new technologies from hundreds of millions of consumers in the European Union, protesting Europe’s trade restrictions and accusations of monopolistic behavior. So again, that’s EU protecting its own market from what it believes is monopolistic America. It’s all negotiation, okay? That’s all it is.

Geopolitics. I think that geopolitics is. I have an opinion on Israel now. They’re in the process of winding down or ending their Gaza bush. Rafa. Rafa. And ramping up their Lebanon thing. And if you look at what’s going on in Israel from a really big picture thing, which is what we do, because I don’t know what’s going on on the ground. There’s Israel. Since I think once Israel said, okay, shit, the US is going to start pulling out or being less of a presence here. We have to defend ourselves. And then you had the. This all started with Hamas invading Israel or invading Gaza, the Gaza portion of Israel, however you want to describe Gaza and slaughtering some people.

And Israel, you could argue, has been pushing back too much. But, you know, I mean, if you feel existentially threatened. Are they. But it’s a hot button issue right now. But the point is, one of the things from a geopolitical person that I follow very closely was said to me, he said, Israel, if Israel starts a three front war, it will not survive. It will be gone if we don’t help them. And that three front war would be Gaza to the west, Lebanon to the north, and Iran to the east, coming through Syria or what have you.

Jordan. I’m sorry. That’s what they’re doing. It’s like they’re doing serial wars. The Hamas thing. Iran stayed out of it. Lebanon, well, that could get worse, but Iran is staying out of it. So far. I feel like Israel is just flexing on its borders, not necessarily expanding, although that could happen. But it’s almost like they’re in a prison. And I’m not taking sides on this. They’re in a prison. Like, okay, we need to pick a fight with the three biggest guys one at a time. But what’s amazing is that it hasn’t escalated. They’re not fighting all three fronts at the same time.

It’s kind of like they’re rotating anyway. I don’t know what it means, but I do think it goes towards a bigger thesis that I have, and that is that this whole thing since COVID everyone’s on this page. I mean, China and the US are on the same page on this. This is a takedown of western power to give to the BRICS. All right, data on deck. Speeches today. Tomorrow, speeches in case Shiller home price index, Wednesday, new home sales is the focus. Thursday, jobs, jobless claims and pending home sales. And Friday is Pce. Everyone will be looking for PCE to confirm what last, what CPI did.

So inflation is going to continue to drift lower. And I’m not sure what the Fed’s going to do about that. The banks are split in their comments. Some think that there will be a cut to two cuts. Reputable banks and at least one reputable bank says, you know what, they might not cut at all. And both have valid points. It’s really up to the Fed. Anyway, let’s take a look at the chart and we can go there. Silver, the daily. Gold, the daily. Oh, yeah. I do want to make this comment going back to say, actually more like May when we broke out from here.

That’s like the second level breakout. This is support that identified. This is where sovereign fund, I’m pretty sure, was buying. And we came back to here and I thought, oh, maybe they’re buying there now, maybe they were, maybe they were not. Who knows? But we held here. So, aligning myself with Michael, but giving you a downside level, I’m neutral, friendly to the market unless it goes below this line, which is 22 88 on a spot. Okay. And so reignition. So I’m using Michael’s level for reignition above, what is it? 23 45. Call it 23 60 on a, on a printer.

23 45 on a weekly settlement. That’s how I’m looking at it. And this is why this is all very important. This is the end of the month. Right. And every month we’ve had, except for last month, strong closes here. I’ll show you what I mean. Strong monthly starts here. Strong monthly, close. Strong monthly, close off the highs, but strong monthly, close. Not bad. Not bad. Massively strong monthly. Close. Frothy, but still a massively strong monthly close. Frothy, massive. And now we have this long wick here. This could be the month we have a weak monthly close, especially with, as Craig Henke has noted specifically, I’ve been saying that the market’s being sat on, but it’s not dipping more than one day or dipping more than one week at a time.

He noted that the last three, three out of the last four Fridays have been sales. And so I want you to think about that in preparation for this Friday. This Friday could be a sale because we have three long wicks above on the candles and that might break the back of some people. But all that said, buying is back. American buying is back. So that’s it, everyone. Have a great day. Good to see you all again. Well, thanks for tuning into today’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. The show is brought to you each day by Miles Franklin, precious metals, who we encourage you to consider for your next gold or silver purchase or sale.

Miles Franklin has pricing that’s among the best in the industry on most products, and Arcadia is proud to be a licensed Miles Franklin representative and happy to help whenever you have questions or want to place an order where this week’s silver special is et al Preziosi silver kilo bars for only $1.79 over spot, and certainly with premium still on the low side while the price is pulled back. If you’re looking to add to your silver stack, the Etel Preziosi kilo bars are a great way to do so, and you can find out more by calling us at 833-326-4653 or emailing arcadiailesfrank.

And as always, thanks for watching. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching.
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