➡ Raph from the Endgame Investor discusses the biggest gold bull market in history, which was not from 1978 to 1980 as commonly believed, but from 1972 to 1974. He suggests that the gold market since 2008 is nothing compared to what was seen in the 1970s, and predicts a stronger gold bull market in the future. He also discusses the normalization of the yield curve spread, which has turned positive for the first time since 2021, indicating that 10-year yields are above 3-month yields. This could potentially lead to a financial crisis, which he believes will be worse than any previously experienced.
➡ The article discusses the potential for an upcoming financial crisis, based on various economic indicators such as the 10-year rates, national debt, and bank loans. It suggests that the crisis could lead to hyperinflation or a banking system collapse, which would increase the value of gold and silver. The author also mentions a theory that the crisis could occur around mid-2025, based on patterns in past financial crises. Lastly, the article emphasizes the importance of understanding what real money is and saving it, as it is more reliable than possessions during a financial crisis.

🎵 My little boy 🎵 🎵 My little boy 🎵 Well there my friends, Raph here from the Endgame Investor with this week’s Silver Report. And today, we’re gonna go into a shocking fact about the 1970s bull market, gold bull market that I never knew before. And thanks to a guy named James Flanagan of GAN Global Financial, he has pointed out to me that the biggest gold bull market in history was not 1978 to 1980, actually. It was from 1972 to 1974, meaning just after the breaking of the gold window, or the closing of the gold window, or whatever you want to call the gold window, whether it was breaking or closing or whatever.

That was the biggest gold bull market, and not the 1980 top. How does he know this? Well, the numbers are actually pretty simple, but the graphs can fool you. What is the importance of this? Well, mainly that what we have seen since 2008 in the gold market is nothing compared to what we saw in the 1970s, so that is still to come. And when it does, we all know that silver will briefly head down to a 15 to 1 ratio, and that is when you want to buy anything you can get your hands on. So we will get into that, and the normalization of the yield curve spread, the 3-month to 10-year yield curve spread is now finally positive.

It is above zero, which means that 10-year yields are above 3-month yields for the first time since, what was it, 2021. We’ve been in an inverted yield curve for over 2 years, and that has finally ended as of last Friday. And when that happens historically, we have between 1 month and 6 months until the next Keynesian recession, which yields into a financial crisis, which it will this time, and it will be worse than any other that we have ever experienced, or better, depending on what side of it you’re on. We’re going to go into the reverse repo decline rate for the entire year of 2024, which has been pretty constant, and the silver trend line remains intact for most of 2024.

Despite the ups and downs, the uptrend line is firmly intact, and probably will stay intact until we get to the next financial crisis. This silver report is brought to you by the Dirty Man Safe, which you can get for 10% off by using the term Endgame10 at checkout. Check the link in the description. What you can do is bury it somewhere on your property and then salt your entire yard or wherever it is that you put it, so that metal detectors are completely useless. Or you can cover it in carbon fiber paper, which makes it impervious to metal detectors.

And then don’t tell anybody, like I just did, what can I do, I’m advertising it, I’m kind of caught in a conundrum here. If you have not subscribed to the Endgame Investor on Substack, check the link in the description below and do that right now to support this channel. In any case, let’s begin with the slides for this week’s silver report. For slide 1, we have this text that I copied from a slideshow by James Flanagan. I figure this is not private information. This is all public knowledge, so I can take one piece of a slide from his presentation, which is a paid service and I highly recommend it if you’re not a technical trader.

This guy belongs to a technical school and I check in with the techies because I am more of a fundamentalist and I don’t deal with these technical signals that much. So what they say has value to me, which is why I pay him for the service. But anyway, mind-blowing, when was the greatest gold bull market? I have always thought that it was 1978 to 1980, and of course, it depends how you count these things. This is an art, not a science, and none of it is exact. However, if you count a bull market from breaking previous highs, from the moment where previous highs are broken into space, meaning you’re now at new highs that have never been reached before and from that moment on, the new bull market starts, then from that calculation, the biggest gold bull market was from June 3rd, 1972, at $44.05, December 30th, 1974, at $195.50.

That was an advance of 344% and a little more than two years, and there you have, by comparison, July 26th, 1978, at $195.50, which is exactly the old high of the 1974 bull market. So you have $195.50 to January 21st, 1980, that famous date that we all know at $850. You could say $872 if you’re counting by midday or something, but he’s counting $850 by spot gold, I think. So that is 335%. And if you want to count it by $872, maybe you meet the 344%, but I haven’t really calculated it. The point is that the strongest gold bull push was actually in the early 70s right after, just a few months after, less than a year after the closing of the gold window.

By comparison, we have January 2008 at $850, which is where we left off from January 21st, 1980, 28 years later. Isn’t that a movie now, 28 years later? Should I put that in? Seven, six, 11, five, four, 17, 32, the date. $850 January 2nd, 2008, to March 17th, 2008, 1032. And then we start again from October 6th, 2009, at 1032, where we left off in 2008, about a year later, year and a half later, until September 6th, 2011, at 19, 20, and 30 cents. That’s only an 85% run, compared to 340%, 335%. The point is what we’ve seen since 2008 has been nothing.

Nothing! Absolutely nothing! Stop it! We are still going into the strongest part of this gold bull market, which will be when silver reaches the 15 to 1 ratio very briefly, and that is when you want to either trade your silver for gold or buy whatever you can, because that is when the world is dying for a monetary medium that will preserve whatever is left of the division of labor, and we’ve been through this before on the silver report. Let’s go to the next slide. These are the graphs to show you what the greatest gold bull market was, versus what was the second greatest, and this is 1972.

We see here at $44, where this red line is, that is the old highs, right here, right there, in that little notch. We go up to $195.50 on December 30th, 1974. That is the greatest bull market ever for gold, and we see we have inside this gold bull market a lot of regressions over here, or bear corrections, bearish corrections, and some of them are even more than 20%. This is one of those from about $125, $130 to about $90. That’s more than 20%. Again, here, I think it’s about 20%. We have bear markets embedded within the greatest bull market, and we’re going to have that again.

It’s not going to be different, but let’s compare it to what we think, what we thought was the greatest bull market in gold. That’s 1978 to 1980, and it was in silver, but it wasn’t in gold. Here is the comparison. This is the greatest versus the second greatest over here. You can see here that even though this one looks more extreme, this one actually was by a percentage basis. The charts can be very fooling. Now, let’s get into timing and the inverted yield curve, which is now normalized or is on the way to normalizing. It depends if you want to define normalization as above zero or substantially above zero, and there are different definitions in that.

Again, this is an art, not a science, but here you can see that we have broken through the zero line, meaning finally, 10-year yields are above 3-month yields for the first time since whenever this is, this is sometime in 2021, early 2021, so we have been inverted for the longest time ever. This below zero area here is longer than any other time we were below zero, which is every time upon normalization led to a recession or a financial crisis or both. If we zoom in, how long did that take? Well, we can see the shaded area here with recession and the moment.

Here is the first example, the moment that we broke through zero. We hit above zero for the first time here or the last time. There was a few crossings over here, but we’re counting from the last one. Yes, we could cross below zero again this time, but we’ll see what happens. But if this is the last cross above zero in the modern era for this yield curve spread, then you can see here from December 28th to July 3rd, 1990. So that’s about six months. That was the 1990 timeline from cross above zero to recession, six months, 2001.

It was about a month. If you count from here or here, it’s also about a month. There’s only a few weeks difference from mid January or mid February to early March, something about a month like that. That was upon normalization until recession over here in March 2001. 2008, great financial crisis. The count was three to six months, depending on exactly how you count it. If you want to count it from here, this break above zero or this one, it’s only a difference of a few weeks. Or if you want to count it from this one, which is two or three months back, it’s three to six months, meaning it’s not very long.

It doesn’t matter exactly how many months, but we’re not talking years here. We are almost there. Ten-year rates bounce off 50-week moving average on the technical charts. These are one of the few technical signals I actually use because it’s very basic. I don’t take these all that seriously in terms of technical signals, but this is a very basic one, so I do follow it. We see here that 10-year yields have bounced off the blue line, which is the 50-week moving average. And we also have a downtrend line here, starting in, what is it, October 2023, which was a very bad month.

And we have the downtrend line in yields, and we’re tagging it again at 4.4. We should break it about 4.5 and hit a double top here, meaning resistance in yields. And I expect a breakthrough here as we head into a debt crisis with yields heading higher and higher. And there you have the spiral, and it will only be escaped through hyperinflation or the collapse of the bank system. It will be one or the other, and either way, the purchasing power of gold and silver will skyrocket. This is a calculation that I thought was very interesting from EGI endgame investor subscriber Dr.

John Hartnett. These are the quality of the people that we have on the sub-stack on endgame investors, so you can benefit from their comments as well. He says here he’s calculating the possible triangulation trajectory of the next financial crisis. So he puts here, this is the fractional change in the national debt of percent per year, quarterly, I think, or is this monthly? I think it’s quarterly. So we have here the rate of the change of debt. So whenever we see a spike in the rate of the change of the national debt, we have a financial crisis here.

So here he points out that this is the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. And it took 23 years to get to the next financial crisis at the Great Financial Crisis Depression. He calls it, and here is the largest spike in debt quarterly change in 23 years. It took from here to there. And the next huge financial crisis happened 11 and a half years later, which is about half of the time period. So assuming, I don’t know if he’s right here, he might be wrong. Well, we’ll see. In retrospect, everything is 2020, but we’ll see.

So he’s hypothesizing that 11 and a half years, half of 23, and therefore half of 11 and a half from 2020 would be 5.7. So we’re talking about somewhere in the middle of 2025, which is imminent. He says here, I don’t have the data for the national debt before 1966. But what is curious in these time intervals is that if you extrapolate backwards in time, double the 23 years example, meaning 46 years, you get 1939, July 1st, 1939. What financial crisis happened then? I don’t know. But I do know that that is when World War II started in all wars, our bankers’ wars.

So he’s kind of drawing a parallel between war and financial crisis. And I think he’s right here. I don’t know if he’s right about the timing on this methodology, but I thought it was interesting to see. And we’ll see in retrospect if he’s correct. This is a chart I kid jiggered from Fred showing the national debt to the monetary base ratio. As you know, the national debt builds itself off of the monetary base. You can’t have too much debt with too little of a monetary base. That creates a toppling pyramid, which is a financial crisis. And so since 2008, we have a trend line here for where that ratio can hit before there is a crisis.

We see here that there was a crisis hit over here at about 0.09 or whatever that number is. And then we have a trend higher here at about 0.16, 0.17. The trend line is about to hit again over here in 2024. This is a quarterly chart, I think. But the point is we’re almost there. We’re almost there on this metric as well. And we’ll see how we’re almost there on another metric, which is this one, which is the reverse repos, which I’ve shown before. But here, I want to show you for all of 2024, going back to the beginning of 2024, you can draw a trend line.

And you can take this number, subtract this number at the end, and you get a rate, a monthly rate of about $40 billion a month for the entire year. And since we are at about $130 billion left at this rate, if the rate for this year for 2024 continues into 2025, then we have three months until these things drain out. I know I keep extending the time because it keeps getting annoying. But these are going to run out, and they’re not going to stay there forever. I know it’s very frustrating, and it’s frustrating myself as well.

But the trend line is still there, and it is still going down. And once it does, it will have a drain on bank reserves, which will lead to the final repo crisis in my estimation. And now to silver, we see here that for almost the entire year, mid-February 2024, the silver trend line remains intact. The uptrend line is pretty steep. It’s pretty firm. We’ve gone from 22 to about 31 now. And we’re nicely above the trend line here. It’s about $30.50 is the tagline. And I think we’re going to maintain that until we get to the next financial crisis, at which point I expect silver to crash along with gold, but only very briefly.

And that will be your final opportunity to buy. I don’t think there’s going to be that much difference in the price and the physical because premiums are going to skyrocket when this happens. And then we’ll head up to 50 and beyond, and we’ll be in the final financial crisis and the monetary reset and everything that we are hoping for. The last slide that I wanted to show you is the bank loans, the rate of bank loans, the year-over-year rate of increase or decrease in bank loans. And we see here that loans drop every time that there is a recession, and they go below zero here.

They did that in the early 90s. They dropped at the 2001 recession. They went briefly to below zero. 2008, great financial crisis was more extreme, a huge drop in bank loans and year-over-year bank loans. And then there was huge deflation over here in 2010, 2009-2010. We see the same thing in 2020, this spike in bank loans. That was thanks to the money printing and then a huge fall. And then we’re back up again. That might have been the stimulus checks or whatever it was, or the reverse repos flowing into the banking system from the Fed. It could have been a lot of things.

It’s been very zigzagging because of all the printing. But we’re back down over here, and we haven’t moved much for the last year and a half. So it looks like the final recession is very close on many different metrics. I know it’s taken a long time, but it really should happen this year or this coming year in 2025 exactly when. I don’t know, but it’s very close. And you’ve got to keep the faith, understand what money is and what money is not, and block out the noise and stick with logic and stick to the ground level of this pyramid.

And don’t be tempted to climb up it, no matter how much money people are making on the top, because in the end it is all coming down. We’ll be up to the people with the real money on the bottom floor to build it back up. And in order to build it back up, they will have to take ownership of large chunks of the thing that have fallen down. This is Rafi the endgame investor, and you can support this channel by taking ownership of a dirty man safe code endgame10 at checkout. Check the link in the description below and sign up to be an endgame investor subscriber on substack.

Link in the description below. And the next thing we are going to discuss on the Patreon, where I go into biblical lessons on money, is that what gives man respect, what gives a man respect or covet in Hebrew, is not the possessions that he has, but the possessions that he does not have. Because what leads to covet, what leads to respect among people who respect your reputation, is money itself. Not money that you steal, but money that you save. And it will go into a biblical passage that proves this point. Point being that possessions come and go, especially in financial crisis.

They can go very quickly, but what maintains itself in a financial crisis is money. Not money derivatives, but money itself. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.