Western Investors Start Coming Back Into Gold Silver | Arcadia Economics

Global Gold ETFs experienced their strongest month since April 2022, attracting US$3.7 billion in July, the third consecutive monthly inflow. All regions saw inflows with western funds leading the way. That’s not normal. Recent inflows and the rising gold price pushed Global Gold ETF total assets under management to $246 billion a month and peak. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey and today’s market rundown we’re going to look at potential gold cherry on the top of this rally and preview an excellent silver report by BOA.

The gold cherry refers to ETF flows as cataloged by the World Gold Council. We’ll be looking at that report. First let’s look at the markets. The dollar is up 8 to 9 pips at 103.24. Ten year yields are up about a basis point at 395. The S&P 500 is up 16 handles at 53.56. The VIX is 20.60 up 24 up 0.24. Gold is 24.41 up 10.50 10.75 strong overnight. Silver is 27.90 of 44 cents that’s 1.6% stronger as it should be. Copper is 405 up almost 7 cents at 1.73. So you can see the base metals are moving in tandem a little bit.

Silver getting a little proper kick from the base metals it seems. WTI up 59 cents at 7805. Natural gas a little bit of a pop there. Up 8 cents at 2.22 top of the range. Crypto Bitcoin was down all night but now it’s up 59,700 up about a thousand. Ethereum was up slightly all night and has popped some more. So maybe Ethereum is leading this little rally here. 26.68 up 114 up 4.5%. There was a lot of selling in Ethereum this couple days as reported by Zero Hedge and that’s probably futures players slamming to buy like they used to do in gold.

Palladium is up 28 at 9.34 and Platinum is up 17 at 9.37. Interesting I wonder if that’s tied to the recovery or if it’s just a bunch of noise. Tough to say. Grains are all down. Wheat is the worst at 549 down 7.7 cents. Soybeans are down 5 cents at 1023 and corn is 377 down a penny and a half. There’s the gold chart. You can see it looks pretty good. This day I think caught a lot of people by surprise and silver. Well silver’s got more to run. Let’s take a look at our topics today.

There’s the home page. Stories we put out over the last two days the gold gang gets capped and traded. That is despite the nebulous title that is about how a market any market but using gold as an example because it’s the most obvious is kept in a range and accumulated by someone who wants to buy it. In this case it’s capped by the people who cap it all the time. That would be the central bank of central banks and then it’s traded by the funds and the bullion banks but this time it’s being accumulated by the central banks of the BRICS persuasion.

I think it’s a very good explanation of what’s been going on since December 3rd and probably before that. On the left Mr. Bean defends free speech. That’s an unlocked post. Nice little interview he gave there or at least a speech he gave there about the goings-on in the UK with the clamp down of free speech. He’s a bright guy. Then Hartnett small biz stripe that’s the weekly Hartnett update. He’s saying that he gives some technical levels below a certain level let’s call it 50-50. In the S&P 500 we go from a soft landing to a hard landing below 50-50 then the Fed has to cut more than 25 basis points more than 50 basis points.

The longer they wait in sympathy with the other banks like Citibank and TPM and Goldman Sachs the worse it’ll be. That’s the banking industry’s perception right now. I’m not so sure that Jerome Powell agrees with them but that’s where it is. Hartnett is premier macro analyst and he lays out the if then scenario that you need to hear if you’re a trader of that type of persuasion. Anyway the cherry on top. The World Gold Council sees western activity up-ticking. Here’s a little excerpt from that. Global Gold ETFs experienced their strongest month since April 2022 attracting US 3.7 billion dollars in July.

The third consecutive monthly inflow. All regions saw inflows with western funds leading the way. That’s not normal. Recent inflows and the rising gold price push Global Gold ETF total assets under management to 246 billion a month and peak. Let’s just go to the picture. Let’s give that a little more justice. This is the world’s ETF inflows or outflows which are below the line. North America is in dark blue. Europe is in light blue. Asia is in gold and other is in some I don’t know periwinkle and then the gold price is overlaid on it.

You’ll see that over the last three months we have had a definite net inflow. Now if you just look at the Asia portion of it Asia has been buying forever so I don’t know why they’re saying Asia slow down. They’re not selling. Look at these last three months buying, buying, buying. Maybe not buying as much compared to everyone else right now but they’re buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, nothing, buying, buying, buying. Okay so there’s a problem that might be selling. Anyway on the you know notice the world is split into Asia versus the west or let’s just call it the BRICS versus the G7.

So on the BRICS side they’re buying. That would be Asia and other. On the west North America and Europe we had not been buying right but over the last three months North America and Europe in combination have been growing in appetite right. So here we have the U.S. selling a little bit. Europe buying a little bit. Then we have North America. I shouldn’t say U.S. Canada is definitely part of that. They’re probably buying more than the U.S lately. Anyway so you have a U.S. selling a little bit but Europe really starting to pick up and now the U.S.

picks up. So the trend is the west is buying gold again right. Are they buying physical gold? Well we’re not so sure about that. Let’s read a little bit more on that. Asia extended its inflow streak to 17 months attracting $438 million in July. Despite July’s slowdown Asia has registered inflows of $3.6 billion a year to date. Significantly outpacing all their markets driven mainly by Japan and China. COMAC’s total net long sell notable rise rising ending July at 738 tons 2% higher month to month right and we have that full analysis at the bottom and stay with us.

There’s going to be a little bit of a premium comment about this analysis a meta comment if you will. Tomorrow we have we’re going to break down and walk through a special Bank of America silver analysis. Not many banks write anything on silver specifically but Bank of America will from time to time and their knowledge of the marketplace is good. They’re telling us a lot which means they have a lot more they’re not telling us whether you want to view that as a reason to buy or not it’s entirely up to you but they do know the industry which smells to me like they have a customer who’s buying through them which would be of the Asian persuasion I think and finally on that you know Bank of America from a trader’s perspective Bank of America has a very large short position in silver futures that’s not that’s probably not speculation that’s probably longs hedging physical that’s probably their hedges for a client who’s taking physical delivery but we don’t know that’s exactly how JP Morgan operates.

Anyway we’re going to talk about that tomorrow but we’re going to talk about the World Gold Council at the end here. All right market news now I’m not going to go through all this you can go through it but there is a there is a theme there’s always themes but there’s a theme that’s not being talked about and probably won’t be talked about for years but it should be talked about now if you’re in business and you want to think about what AI is doing aside from aside from getting people fired.

See this here—dead people are being brought to life. Now, I don’t necessarily mean in the Michael Jackson hologram story. What I mean is, you can use a deceased person’s distinctive voice to do an audiobook now. American private equity and venture capital firms are buying the rights to do this from top entertainers. You know, so, you know, Jimmy Durante—you get it, you get a distinctive voice—and then they’re going to use them for book reading.

Not only is that something to monetize because people will continue reading books, but they’ll have them read to them. It’s also internationally monetizable. See, you’re going to be able to take—I don’t know—John F. Kennedy’s voice and have him read something in Chinese to a Chinese person who wants to buy a book, okay? So, American culture will be exported. Remember in the ’80s when stars were doing commercials in Japan? You know, Lost in Translation was the Bill Murray movie that centered around that. Well, that’s going to happen with virtual people. That’s going to happen. So, your brand as a person, as a movie star, is going to attract commerce.

Okay, so the applications for AI are just not known yet. But what does that do? That makes a lot of money for people that are smart, and it gets a lot of voiceover people fired. This is, you know, this is the double-sided sword blade. Anyway, there are a lot of other things in there, but I just think that’s very interesting. That’s going to change the whole economy.

Alright, moving on—politics and geopolitics. Look, we happen to be right about that comment a couple of days ago when we said that it’s awfully quiet coming out of Ukraine and Zelensky. While they start an offensive, Russia is doing a counteroffensive that’s going to dominate the news, especially a fire at a reactor, which—I’m not saying it’s nothing, but I am saying it’s, you know, it’s not dangerous for the nuclear aspect of it. So basically, this is about Russia, and there’s a big push—you know, maybe we can get Russia off-sides going into an election. Wouldn’t that be nice for the Democrats?

Alright, data on deck—big week for data: CPI, PPI, housing starts, and others. Okay, so today’s the easy day. Tomorrow is PPI, which is forward-looking for CPI, and Wednesday is CPI. Now, I don’t know, I don’t know how to look at these yet. I think the Feds—I think CPI is going to continue to creep lower, and PPI may or may not creep higher. The other stuff? I don’t know, but I think this is kind of important. Housing starts—I think it’s important because housing leads a recession more than anything else, okay? Housing starts drop, people get fired, houses go down in value, people don’t feel as wealthy, they stop buying stocks, etc., etc., etc.

Okay, before we get to the premium portion, I want to do a final market check and give a little comment here. I’m going to go down to the hourly silver—give me a second, give my bearings—copper. Nice. See this little high here? If you’re a technician, silver broke it, and copper broke it. So, as long as copper stays above here, right, then silver is not going to be weighed down by copper, right? So, three cents lower, you’re nervous about silver, right? Okay, from the copper perspective—gold, on the other hand, this is just such a lovely thing. Alright, this market was supposed to go to here. I think I said that. I’m like, you know, I think it should go there or will go there, and it didn’t. I’m like, oh my goodness, this guy who’s buying in here, he bought here. Surprisingly, this held, and he bought in here. I know this is a buyer, and my goodness, I think this buyer’s moved up to here now. I didn’t draw a line there yet, so let’s do that. What’s that—horizontal ray—let’s go right there and say that this line may not mean much anymore.

So, if this market here—we’ll go to a four-hour—excuse my incompetence with the chart—if the market goes below, I’m always talking about the downside because I’m always long people. If the market goes below here, you’re not bearish until it gets below here. If it goes below here, you’re bearish in there. In the meantime, in the meantime, look at this four-hour line, right? This is actually a thing of beauty. What I mean—draw it on the four-line. Someone said, “I’m done waiting, I’d like to purchase,” and someone else said, “I agree.” Alright, so what does that mean? Slammed, covered by the retracement, I’m done waiting, my average price is good, and so now the market gets ahead of itself, gets slammed. Now it’s below this line, right? So, this line doesn’t really matter anymore. So, take this line and go like this. Alright, and now this is your trend line, meaning that’s the trend line. It gets above it, it gets pulled back to it, it’s getting above it again. Let’s see if it gets pulled back to it. So, this line here that I just kind of made up—ignore it. That’s your trend line, right? Let’s go to the one-hour—it’s pretty, right? That’s a pretty trend line—gets ahead of itself, the buyer backs off, gets ahead of itself, the buyer backs off. Very much a Bollinger Bands, if you are familiar with them.

Okay, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals, who we encourage you to contact for your next gold or silver order. And Miles Franklin brings us a gold and silver special each week, and if you’ve been looking for a pullback in the rally to purchase gold and silver, this week’s deals include constitutional junk silver for only $2.50 over spot, and that’s for the half dollars, with the dimes and quarters being even a little bit less. Miles Franklin also has the Trump Fight for America one-ounce colored bars that are $6 over spot, which capture the iconic photo from July 13th. And on the gold side, Miles has one-ounce buffalo rounds for only $99 over spot.

So again, if you’ve been looking to buy gold and silver when the price has pulled back and the premiums are still low, now’s your chance, and you can call us at 833-326-4653 to place an order or get pricing on any other item. So, give us a call at 833-326-4653. And as always, thanks for watching.

Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice, and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching.
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