Vince Lanci: Silvers Potential To Reach Fruition This Month (if not this week…) | Arcadia Economics

➡ Arcadia Economics talks about the current state of the financial and precious metals market. It explains that people are buying gold not because they expect the Federal Reserve to ease, but because they want the gold. The article also discusses the prices of various commodities and currencies, and suggests that banks might be buying gold. It ends by discussing the potential for silver’s price to increase.

➡ This article talks about the current state of the gold market and how it’s influenced by various factors. It suggests that the value of gold and gold stocks are on the edge of changing, and this could be influenced by the upcoming non-farm payrolls data. The article also discusses the impact of China’s stimulus on the market and mentions a few significant business news. Lastly, it advises to keep an eye on the manufacturing PMI data to understand if the economy is shifting from consumer to producer.

➡ Always talk to your money guide (financial advisor) before you make any choices about your money. Thanks for tuning in.

I’m telling you, I’m telling you first, if no one else is telling you, this is not people buying gold because the Fed’s going to ease. This is people buying gold because they want the gold. If they were buying gold because the Fed was going to ease, they’d be buying silver too. Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancey where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here is Vince. Good morning, everyone. Hope you had a good weekend and a happy Easter. I’m Vince Lancey and in today’s market rundown we’re going to talk about gold’s price action with emphasis on technicals and a commitment of traders report and silver’s potential coming to fruition this month, if not this week. Let’s take a look at the prices first. The dollar is up to at 104 spot 55.

Ten year yields are largely unchanged at 421. The S and P 500 is 5267 up three handles. The VIX is 1363, hanging in there up about 63 basis points. Gold is 22. 49 up $16. That’s 71 basis points. Another new all time high overnight, starting in asian hours. Silver is trading 25. 04 up $0. 07. Copper is up five cents at four hundred and three. Bitcoin is down almost 2000.

That’s at 69 spot 508. Ethereum is 3544 down 103. Platinum palladium are both up. Palladium is up a percent at 1024 and platinum is at 911, up $6. 88. Oil is unchanged. That’s interesting. Natural gas is unchanged at 83 43. If you’re not watching. And natural gas is trading 165, the one handle, try not to care too much down there unless you’re trading it every day. Grains are mixed.

Soybean is 1192, up four and a half to $0. 05. Corn and wheat are down 431 and 558 respectively, down three and $0. 08. Wheat is pretty volatile. Okay. Oh, incidentally, if you’re looking at your screen and you’re seeing multiple different prices for gold, gold’s up $40. Gold’s up dollar 20. That’s not volatility. One of the screens is futures and the Comex futures close earlier on the weekend.

On Thursday this weekend and spot kept trading. Comex is opening from a 02:00 close and the market had a nice $20 rally after 02:00 so you’re not seeing things. Gold’s up $16 from 05:00 p. m. On Friday for 05:00 p. m. On Thursday, I should say. And it’s up dollar 35 from 02:00 p. m. So it’s just dollar 20 in different stamp. All right, let’s get going. Oh, there’s the homepage goal.

We trust has they put out an annual report. If you’re not familiar with it, you should get familiar with it. Their report comes out in May and it’s a big fundamental write up with interviews and historical perspectives and features that you don’t get anywhere else. I think it’s very good. But before that, a tease. And it’s not even a tease, it’s a material report. They put their graphics out first and they’re known for very good graphics, but specifically they’re very clean.

They’re not jumped up with a lot of lines. There’s a message in each chart and you could see the message. It’s not like you’re being distracted. Very good. For people like myself, I’d have a hard time concentrating on anything more than five minutes. But anyway, we have that chart book here and you can also click on here and get it from their site. It’s, as people call it, the gold standard of gold studies.

And I don’t disagree. Okay, let’s get to the main event. Here are, well, there it is. Are banks buying dips now? Thats a question I asked myself this weekend when I was looking at the commitment of traders and the CFTC analysis. The answer is probably yes. Ive been saying theres been a big buyer for months, but the buying has changed, starting in that daily uplift there daily chart up a second.

Theres a daily chart. I kept saying theres a ledge here. It keeps getting bought. It doesnt make sense. Central banks wouldnt be buying at this level. They would be even more patient. Im like discretionary funds could be buying, but they’ve already bought it. I think the banks are buying it. I’m not sure. The question is, are they getting long? Next question, right in my head, are they getting long or are they covering shorts? It’s probably a little bit of both, depending on the banks and how much in the know they are.

So let’s take a look at that a little bit. All right. First thing, just to get this out of the way, just because I saw this and it just blew my mind. Bloomberg’s this morning, Bloomberg says those bets on Fed easing are juicing a rally in gold which hit a fresh record. Boy had jumped to as much as 22, 65, 73 an ounce on Monday, up 1. 6% from Thursday’s close.

After setting a series of peaks in recent sessions, a host of other drivers have helped push up the metal by around 14% since the middle of February, including elevated tensions in the Middle east and Ukraine and strong buying by central banks, particularly in China. There is nothing in that statement that is incorrect. The lead sentence. I’m telling you, I’m telling you first. If no one else is telling you, this is not people buying gold because the Fed’s going to ease.

This is people buying gold because they want the gold. If they were buying gold because the Fed was going to ease, they’d be buying silver too. Silver’s an economic metal. They’re buying copper. Theyre buying gold. Theyre buying copper for economic reasons. Theyre buying gold for monetary reasons. And silver just started to catch fire last week. So why are these metals being bought? Its all central bank and far east bind.

China is going to stimulate. Thats what that bazooka post is I have there anyway. So theres nothing wrong with what theyre saying there. Its actually its correct. Look, anytime you’re reading a western journalist, they’re going to tell you that whatever’s happening in gold, if it’s going up, is because of something the US is doing. If you can’t keep the price in gold in check, blame it on the Fed.

Don’t say that there’s anyone else out there in control anyway. MSA. Right. Michael Oliver, this is the main event. Right. He has updated his charts and he has a full report out to paying clients. 360 update. We have excerpts for gold and silver here for you. Not a lot new on gold. And can there be, I mean it’s doing what he said it would in November and frankly what we said it would after the November close of above 2009 spot 20.

Anyway, he’s updating silver. He’s moved on properly. He’s looking at the next move which should be in silver and the next move which should be in the, in the miners. Anyway, let’s read, I’m going to read the next Serp or two from his work for you. All right. So this is me talking here. Similar setups as we, as he and we noted in November for gold are upon us.

Specifically, price action for this month will likely determine spelling silver’s next dollar four move as well as minor direction. I don’t propose to know much about miners except that when they golf, you make money. Silver. All right, here’s Michael Silver annual momentum for April. We want to see a monthly close of 25, 25 or higher. Now we’re very close to that now, right. Often with such structures, when we’re so clear, large and ripe, waiting for a monthly close can mean missing a lot.

Meaning we’re at the beginning of the month. Now, if we’re trading 25 50, do you wait another 29 days anyway? And he offers an explanation for that at another price. So it’s kind of like if we close above 25 25 at the end of the month, you’re bullish. Or if we trade above a certain price, and I subscribe to his advice on that, I’m going to give you my version of it.

I don’t want to share too many of his numbers, but I’ll give you my version of it. If someone gives you a number 25 25 at the end of the month, and you’re like, okay, well, what happens if it happens during the month? Well, you have to come up with a matrix, a grid. The answer is, aside from having a number that someone else gives you, you want to ask yourself, what are the chances that we will finish above 25 25? If we’re trading 25 60 on the 30 April, the answer is 99.

9%. What are the chances? And you take the price and you work backwards through time. Now, that may seem like a lot of work, especially if you have a life and you’re not doing this for a living like I do. Another way to do it is, if you’re familiar with options, look at the 30 day option. Okay. The 30 day option. And look at the $25 strike. Okay.

And look at the delta of the call. Delta of the call is the probability of that option finishing in the money. So if we’re trading 25 60 and the delta of the 25 call is 70, then there’s a 70% chance we will close above 25, which is essentially 25 25. So with a 70% probability in mind, then you would put on 70% of your position, depending on how big it is.

Okay. Just. Just a way to give yourself some sanity. Moving on to the GDX. Van Eck gold miners etf. I like this analysis. GDX. For this momentum chart, we specified that a monthly close for March at 3155 or higher would do so in the final hours of the month. GDX got above 3155 and hung in there to close at 3162. So it’s on for GDX. It’s interesting that GDX and silver are.

Call them both on or call them both on the cusp. Right. So this would be do or die. I wouldn’t say die. I would say this would be do or keep your powder dry. Again this week. So I would be very friendly. By the way, the only data you have to worry about this week really is Friday non farm payrolls. All right. Relative performance, an interesting one that everyone’s talking about, relative performance of gold miners versus gold.

We specified a monthly spread close for March at 1. 46% as a breakout. There was a sharp gain this month in the spread, meaning in March, but the close was at 1. 426%. GDX’s price expressed as a percentage of gold. So you see a downward slope there, right. So basically the GDX versus gold relationship is at resistance, right? Right. The, the, uh, and by the way, if miners don’t perform today and gold stays up 1315 $20, well, that resistance is failing.

So, you know, that’s the point. You want to see. You want to see the GDX move with gold right now. You don’t want to just see gold move anymore. And that’s why he’s giving you the lime to sand silver as well. 25, 26. So really everything is on the cusp. So if you’re naked long gold and you’re a relative value player, sell some gold, buy some gold stocks.

I’m not telling you do that. Just hypothetically, that’s how you do it. If you’re naked long gold and you don’t want to deal with miners, well, you should just sell some gold and do nothing. On the other hand, if you’re flat and you’re looking to do something like, ah, gold’s really high, don’t want to buy it. Yeah, you should do hypothetically like I did last month. You know, I bought miners when Druckenmiller announced.

I’m like, I guess he knows something. Cause I had just been long gold. I’m like, all right, I’ll sell some gold. I’ll buy some miners. So I was in a relative value play anyway. So that’s the insight. There’s a lot more on that as well as our own insights, which goes to the point of the banks buying the dip. And I’ll show that on the chart in a second.

Market news. The market news. There’s plenty of news items, but none of them are really specific. But I’ll just say this, China stimulus is starting to be felt in the markets there. I’m not so sure that the data is as good as they say it is. At and t. Better late than never admits that they lost millions of accounts. OpenAI and Microsoft are planning a $100 billion data center project for an AI supercomputer.

So when they talk about bitcoin stealing energy. They’re not talking about AI stealing energy. OpenAI, by the way, is Microsoft. Home Depot is placing an $18 billion bet that it will take the retailer beyond its big on its stores. That’s them saying to you, retail is dead right. They’re going upstream. They’re gonna start partnering with developers or housing developers. Not institutional, not a commercial. Plunging demand for commodity offices in the US is driving growth for the highest quality properties.

Plunging demand means plunging demand. That means of the 500 properties that are emptying, three will be filled up because they’ll be premium. So there’s nothing bullish about that. Lloyds of London, which is a big reinsurer, is saying that the Baltimore port is going to be a big deal in terms of insurance. And when you see insurance companies coming out announcing the losses, they’re prepping their shareholders for lower stock prices.

They’re also letting the government know, you better help us. We’re going into an election year in election, I’m sorry. So I don’t think you’re going to see any losses advertised. The government’s going to take care of them. In China, they’ve launched a new car. They’re selling the cars at a loss. Reminds me of Japan in the eighties when they sold chips at a loss subsidized by the government.

Sayonara, Tesla. I know Sayonara is japanese, but I don’t know the word for see you later. In chinese geopolitics, I say the main event was Erdogan getting a vote of no confidence from the mayoral municipal elections, which is going to affect him somewhat. But I don’t put too much of a thing on it. Today we have some data. 945 us manufacturing PMI. That’s the next leg, right? If we’re going from a consumer economy to a producer economy, PMI will go up.

If PMI is not going up and people aren’t spending on stuff anymore, well, then they’re not making stuff to replace that stuff. So you want to look at it like that. It’s like, okay, are the manufacturers kicking into gear again? Well, then PMI will be strong. And you can see Fridays, non farm payrolls. There’s the premium report, CFTC analysis. Our banks getting nervous. What are they doing now? So now we’ll go to the chart.

I’ll show you what I’m talking about there. Let’s go to the daily. See these channels here? You’re not going to, I can’t prove it to you, but this is central bank and sovereign fund buying this one maybe, but these three are okay. Now when the market ramped here, that was macro discretionary and momentum type funds saying, is it safe? Can I buy it now? And for some reason they bought it.

They probably were told that these guys were done buying, that they bought it, they get them here. Then I noticed, I mentioned several times that there was a ledge here. And I’m like, the central bank wouldn’t be buying up here. They don’t buy like that. They buy weakness, they don’t buy flat price. I’m not saying they can’t, but historically they don’t do that. They don’t put a line in the sand.

Okay. They buy over time and they’ll let it keep coming down. So who was buying? At first I thought it was macro discretionary. I have changed my mind, or put it this way, I don’t feel as confident about that anymore. I think that was bullion, bad buying. And the reason I think that is when you look at the CFTC analysis, even though they’re short, on paper, theyre not short.

Theyre long when the market goes up, even though theyre short, macro discretionary isnt buying as much as they did on the way up. This is not macro discretionary buying as much as they normally do. Then the market got so this bind is here. And then the CFTC report comes out and I see that the banks have largely done nothing. So if theyre doing nothing, on paper, theyre buying dips, meaning theyre selling rallies to people that are buying it.

But when it comes back in, theyre buying it back. So theyre not. Theyre selling ten to buy 15. Theyre not selling ten to sell five anyway. So I believe that the banks are your, I dont want to call them friends, but lets just say theyre your frenemy. Now, I believe the banks arent lending support to this market, and of course theyre fickle and they can change their opinion on a dime or newsletter.

But right now I think the banks are playing this from the long side. The most important thing about this whole meta analysis im giving you is this. Gold doesnt do what it does without the bank of international settlements knowing about it. They didnt let it happen here. Shit, I’m talking about, no, you’re not allowed to go up. No, you’re not allowed to go up. These are significant levels that we had here.

Maybe true is a little weakly you or me here. Yeah, they’re letting this happen. Letting me. The forces in the market are bigger than the players in the market right now. That’s what’s going on. Anyway, I’m Vince. Let’s take a quick look at the markets again. Golds are 14. Don’t be surprised if we come off today. I mean, you know, this can’t keep going on again. I’m always careful, but that’s pretty much it.

Have a great day. I’m Vince and good luck. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancy, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin. Precious metals for this week’s special is 2023, dated 1oz. Silver cougrands for only $3. 10 over spot. Cougarands come from one of the major sovereign mints in South Africa and are also IRa eligible. Find out more about how precious metals IRA works or to get your cougar ants, call or email us at 833-326-4653 or arcadiafranklin.

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