Vince Lanci: Silver Hits Highest Close in 11 Years | Arcadia Economics

Someone asked me where I think the market will go, and I said it should go to $23.50 within two months, and that’s what we did. So I’m not taking credit for that except to say it’s a good rule of thumb. Now, this is done, and I drew another one. I’m not showing you here. The other one goes further back, so these things are very fractal, and if this line hugs, okay, I have another line coming on that gets us to $24.70 in two months. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy, and in today’s morning meeting, we’ll be talking about, well, we’ll touch base on the charts and kind of do a checkpoint to see where we are for gold and silver and copper as well. Let’s start with the prices. The dollar is overnight, up 18 at $104.46, 10-year-olds are $4.33 unchanged, SP 500 is $53.13, up 7, the VIX is $12.43 unchanged. Gold is $23.84 down a buck, a buck and a half. We’re stronger overnight. Nobody took a big run. Pretty much a sideways quiet night.

Silver, $29.63, up a penny. Copper, $4.89, up about a penny. Very quiet, right? WTI, $78.79 down 18 cents, natural gas, $2.32. It’s in gear now, up 2 cents. Crypto, Bitcoin, $66,111, essentially unchanged. Ethereum is $29.98, hugging the $3,000 level. Just a quick comment about the markets to give you some perspective. Bitcoin was up 7% yesterday. Silver was up 3%, 3.5%. Gold was up a little over a percent. And copper was, despite having a great day, they got under control. We’re going to look at those charts in a second, but here’s the front page of the gold fix.

We sent this out. We sent a premium post out already. We really recommend this. We subscribe to Grant’s interest rate observer, and this is a couple of weeks old, so we shared some of the excerpts with you. Hopefully, you won’t mind too much. All right, checkpoints for gold, silver, and copper. That’s what we’re going to talk about today for a little bit. So this is going to be basically a chart checkup. First, a couple of comments looking at the charts at a very, very broad level. Silver, I believe this was the highest close in 11 years.

The reason that’s important, other than the fact that it’s the highest close in 11 years, we’re not the only people who look at those. Managed money looks at those. That’s macro discretionary money. That’s the big boys. The big boys aren’t really in silver yet. They’re, you know, they got into gold in March. They’re not in silver yet. And if this market is anywhere near this price, come May 30th, they’re going to pile in. And I’ll show you what you can expect if they pile in based on what they did to gold. Gold, hovering below 2400 with no real selling, just patient buying that gets impatient periodically, measured moves.

The comment about gold focuses on the fact that I’ve said in several different ways, there’s no real selling. There’s only buying. There’s no, there’s no short, there’s no reason to short this market anymore. There’s just reason to buy dips. Carlations don’t matter until you want to buy all those things mean the same thing. And that is, there are a lot of people who want to buy gold with varying levels of patience. Some of them will wait for a $300 dip. They may or may not get it. Some of them will wait for a $50 dip.

They may or may not get it. Some of them will wait for a $10 dip. They may or may not get it on their schedule. And so because these people are waiting, events are catalysts. CPI, PPI, you know, they draw a line in the sand and they say, if it’s not down by CPI, just get it done. Okay. So that’s where we are right now. There are a bunch of people waiting for the ticket window to open for a concert. Okay. That’s an analogy. I grew up with that analogy. Anyway, so the reality of that is, unless there’s an event, I would not expect a washout.

You know, unless there’s some sort of a geopolitical event, I would not expect a washout. Every other dip is going to be bought, especially on data because there’s buying out there. And I think the banks are the buyers now as well. So the banks are buying at $20 low. Okay. The funds are buying the $50 low and the central banks are buying at $200 low. That’s the way to think of the cohorts right now. CTAs, they’re making money. We don’t care about them right now. Now the measured moves concept, that’s a technical concept.

I’m going to show you that. Copper, copper, the copper move raises awareness to potential problems in silver. So COMEX is basically toast. Now that’s actually not bullish for silver. And I’m going to contradict that right now. Copper draws attention to silver because let’s face it, we’ve been waiting for a short squeeze, a physical short squeeze on the COMEX for 10 years and we think it’s going to come in silver and it comes in copper. So anyway, it’s not a full squeeze yet, but what I’m getting at is for copper to do this, we’ll get the attention of the CFTC.

It will get the attention of people in the physical market and they will, as a result, keep an eye on silver. Now, paradoxically in the past, that would make silver go down. It would go up a little bit and then it would go down and it would go down because once they get copper under control, silver goes down. And I was expecting silver to go negative when copper got to unchanged yesterday and it did not. And the answer, the answer is the copper squeeze motivated shorts to cover in silver, which is not surprising.

What’s surprising is that when copper sold off, silver did not. And my conclusion from these three things is there’s no lid on this market anymore. There are just too many people out there who think that there’s a lid. There’s no lid. No, how fast it gets, it gets above the lid or the top is a different story, but there’s no lid on this market anymore. It’s over. It’s over. All that matters is for people to believe. And when they start to believe more, when they start to be awakened to the awareness that the lid is off, they’re going to buy it.

And some of the people who think the lid is still on this are central banks. Those guys waiting for $300 dips, they might not get it. And if they do get it, you know, it might be after it rallies $2,000. Anyway, okay. So let’s look at a couple of charts here, right? All kinds of charts I’ve looked at today and I just want to throw a couple at you. So there’s silver. That’s a monthly chart in silver. If this market closes anywhere near here at the end of the month, you will have massive money likely piling in.

Technicians talk a lot about the cup and handle. I’m not a believer in that formation. I’m not going to argue with you about it, but I’m not a believer that formation is real. It’s not structured the way I would structure, but this one is real. This is the head and shoulders. People are calling this kind of like a round in the bottom. Well, this is a head and shoulders, shoulder, head, shoulder. Now it may not be perfect. You have to look at volumes and whatnot, but if this breaks, which it essentially has, if you draw it from here, it’s broken.

If you draw from there, it hasn’t. If this breaks, if you consider this broken, then this market has $8 to run. Okay. So that’s enough for me for starters, right? Next chart, gold, a little bit shrunk in there. All right. Gold has, let’s see if I can make this a little bit bigger for everyone. I can’t. All right. Work with me. Here’s your monthly chart. Here’s your cup and handle, which is legitimate. And here’s your breakout of the cup and handle. Okay. When you look at a big structure like this, you, you know what your target is.

My target is X. My target is Y, but along the way, you’re looking for side posts. You see this here? Now, I didn’t see this one. Someone else showed it to me. Actually it was Jordan at the Delhi gold. This creates a measured move of this depth higher. Okay. This creates a measured move of this depth higher. And we got them. I saw this one. So it’s kind of like, these are little saucers or little cups or shot glasses if you want, right? So a move like this should get you a parallel move above it.

If this is a ball market, a move like this. So you add these together, you get that and you get that. We are at the level we should be at this point in the move. Okay. So a pullback right now would not be unhealthy. Now I don’t want one, but it might not be a bad thing. Now, next chart. About a month, a month and a half ago, someone asked me for a target. I think it was Chris at Arcadia and or someone close to Chris. And I said, I don’t really do targets, but I’ll give you a level that I think we should, we should hit.

And I broadcasted it. This is a GAN fan. I’m not going to get into details of it except to say that I connected a few people are familiar with it. It’s, it’s a Fibonacci Fibonacci levels, but it’s more oriented towards speed or time. So I connected the bottom of this, which is the low. And I connect a wick to wick and I connected to December 3rd top, which was important to me December 4th. And so I just let that go. And I’ve let that there for a while. And when we broke, when we touched here and pulled off and then started and started back in here, this is when the macro D started buying.

Someone asked me where I think the market would go. And I said, it should go to 2350 within two months. And that’s what we did. So I’m not taking credit for that except to say it’s a good rule of thumb. Now this is done. And I drew another one. I’m not showing you here. The other one goes further back. So these things are very fractable. And if this line hugs, okay, I have another line coming on that gets us to 2470 in two months, which is completely consistent with what’s going on in the world now.

So I would not be unhappy if the market pulled back here and stayed in here a little bit and then took off. Okay. So if this line hugs, even though it doesn’t mean anything anymore, if this line hugs, if it oscillates around this line a little bit, then this other structure I have going back further says 2470 should happen within two months. Who knows the mysteries of technical analysis. Let’s go to the news, okay, before I really get into this. The market news is interesting today. For me, it’s very thematic. And I didn’t set it out to be thematic, but it is.

For example, this news story, the consumer price index rose 3.4% April from a year earlier, a decrease from 3.5% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Well, the OER, which is supposed to soften the CPI did not. So my guess is it will soften aggressively the next two months, which means you’re going to have a very politically favorable environment for Biden. You’re going to have the setup that he’s going to want for Pal to ease. The question is will Pal to ease. So data as politics, McDonald’s plans to sell a $5 meal bundle this summer as the burger giant seeks to hang on to cost conscious consumers and rivals increased promotions.

This is extremely upsetting to me as a person that understands corporate culture. You see, when Pal lowered rates, he told companies to raise prices. He said, I’m quoting, I have the recording somewhere. Inflation is half my mandate. And then we got the price increases we got and they never came back down. See, they’re not lowering prices through creating a new product. Okay. So everyone’s buying the current thing and the current thing is going up in price and they can’t buy it anymore. Let’s buy them something cheaper. This is the same way you do drugs.

I mean, this is just, you know, it’s the same thing as selling the drug and then giving away the, uh, I don’t like it. Okay. Instead of, instead of doing this, I don’t want to sound like Elizabeth Warren here, but this is how they operate. Now I don’t blame the companies. I blame government for not knowing how companies operate. Okay. So basically you’ve got your $5 meal. It goes to $10, right? The burgers get thinner. The fries get smaller, right? Oh, no one’s buying a $10 meal anymore. Well, let’s sell them a new $5 meal with even smaller burgers.

Moving on de-globalization. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway unveiled a big investment in Chubb, one of the world’s largest publicly traded property casualty insurers. It was most recently involved in the news as the insurer of the collapsed Francis Scott Keybridge in Baltimore. This is very cool. You know, a lot of people looked at insurers like Chubb and said, well, insurers are going to have higher costs, you know, shipping, terrorism, what have you. And so they sold them. And Buffett said, well, people are still going to need insurance. Trade is still going to happen.

And he picked the one with the biggest global exposure rates are going to go up. We still need oil. The rates for oil are going to go up for insurance, for oil tankers, et cetera, et cetera. So in a de-globalized world, companies remain global, but countries do not. New US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to redirect shipments to Europe and put increased pressure on Brussels, which is scrambling to avoid being caught in the trade war between Washington and Beijing. They are caught in the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

Mercantilism makes non-ideological alliances. Meaning, I’m woke. You’re a bigot. I need food. You have food. All of a sudden, I’m not so woke anymore. That’s how it works. And I wrote Japan there because Japan is an example of that. Ideologically, Japan is Western. Okay. But geographically, they’re Eastern. Expect them to be involved in more and more trade and be a side show in the bricks at some point. MMT. Last one. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. President Neil Kashkari repeated central bank likely needs to open to keep interest rates at the current level for a while longer and question how much they’re restraining the US economy.

Now, this guy’s a moron. I mean, he’s a midwit moron. I’m sorry. I mean, he’s more powerful than me. He’s obviously better connected than I am, but he’s a moron. And the Fed’s message here, his intended message is higher for longer, don’t get crazy. Okay. And this part here, how much they’re restraining the US economy. You don’t say that. He’s saying that the Fed isn’t that important. The Fed’s not stopping the economy. He thinks, along with Powell’s message, that he’s telling the Treasury to stop spending. But all he’s telling these idiots in Washington is the Fed doesn’t matter.

And if the Fed doesn’t matter, you don’t even anymore. And that’s what MMT does. Sorry, but he’s hurting this country. People like that are why we have problems. Anyway, data today, jobless claims, Philly Fed, Philly Fed might be important. 10 a.m. on Friday, US leading economic indicators, precious metals. You already saw the story we sent out premium. I added a little something today as well, weekly commodity catch up. Anyway, let’s check back with the markets. And let’s hide all that stuff. Gold’s down a buck and change. Let’s look at last night, okay? All right, so here’s the reopen.

Market does this. All right, so I’ll give you a little story here. We’ll use silver, right? Silver, looking at futures, it’ll be testing 24. Silver goes to $24, test it, and comes off. Not an aggressive test. It’s a probe. It’s a little recon, right? Look at the market as a living being. I will say the phrase stop fishing. It doesn’t have to be stop fishing. The market is seeking the weakest hands. Were there stops right there? No, there were not. Maybe there’s stops right above. The point is the market is seeking to take out the weekend, and it thinks the weekend is right above $24.

I’m sorry, well, $2400 in gold, $30 in silver. Anyway, so the market is going to find out if there’s buying or selling at $30. And if it doesn’t find out today, it will probably find out tomorrow. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancey. Brought to you each day by Myles Franklin Precious Metals, where this week’s special is one ounce gold Australian kangaroos for only $59 over spot. Gold Australian kangaroos are one of the coins coming from one of the six sovereign mints, and with the gold price pulling back recently, you can get your Australian kangaroos at only $59 over spot by emailing our katyatmylesfranklin.com or calling 833-326-4653.

Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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