Vince Lanci: Silver Head Shoulders Pattern Shows $30 Within Reach | Arcadia Economics

➡ Arcadia Economics in this article talks about how big investors are starting to look at silver as a potential investment. It also discusses how Costco has been selling a lot of gold bars, making a lot of money. The article also mentions that the price of gold has been going up because people are worried about inflation and the US’s financial situation. Lastly, it talks about how the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, has been higher than usual and what that could mean for the economy.

➡ This text talks about the unpredictable nature of market trends and how they can be influenced by buying and selling. It also mentions a special offer on silver coins from a South African mint by a company called Miles Franklin. The text ends with a disclaimer that the information provided should not be used for financial trading without consulting a financial advisor.

For institutional discretionary markets, they’re looking at silver. Now, I’m not saying that they should be buying silver because it’s a very small market compared to the amount of money they can plow into it, but oh, boy, if they do, $30 will be a joke. And mind you, we’re trading above $28, which is above the level that they tamped it down. How come there’s no tamping now? I’ll tell you why.

Because you can’t stop a freight train. You can only slow it down. Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals and financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Pretty char. Right. We’ll talk about that in a minute. What are we going to do today? I thought we’d talk about the costco story out on gold.

It’s the second one out in a couple months. I think it’s significant and entertaining. We’re also going to talk about the last eight days in gold, and we’re going to go through a little bit of this chart. First, let’s start with market prices. The dollar is trading 10407, down 410 year. Yields are down a basis point of be 552. 18 up a handle. The VIX is 15 spot ten.

Stable. Gold is down $4 at 23 48. Coming off its lows, silver is 28. 07, down $0. 05. Copper is up two cent at 430. Oil is up thirty eight cents at eighty five, ninety four. Natural gas is creating 186, creeping higher. That should be on our radar now a little bit. Bitcoin is down 100 at 69. Kind of crabby, meaning walking sideways since that little spike. Ethereum is 3317.

Platinum is 983 a $4 and palladium is down $2 at 1091. Grains are all up with wheat dragging everything higher. Wheat is up percent and a half, $0. 08. That’s a big move to have these grain moves like that. Anyway, here’s what it is. It’s the world now. Costco drainage, SoC gen chartage. Okay, we’re not going to show you the SoC gen chart. You’ll have to. You’re going to have to be a premium subscriber to see that.

But we’re going to discuss it in an overview, confirming what probably most of you who chart already know. We’re also going to talk about the Costco story. So this is the front page of Gulfix. It’s just been nonstop. The information flow has been nonstop and we’ve been trying to share that as efficiently as possible. Here’s today’s CPA analysis. Some of you may be seeing this after CPI is out.

There’s the story we put out yesterday. Free to all. Okay, let’s go to the Costco thing. Here’s the headline. Costco selling as much as 200 million in gold bars monthly. Wells Fargo estimates Costco has turned into money for Costco, where yellow metal sales began last year have turned into a cash cow for the big box retailer. In fact, sales are so brisk that analysts at Wells Fargo expect revenue may now be running at 100 million to 200 million a month, a rapid acceleration since bullion hit the warehouse club late in the summer of 2023.

Quick comment. It was 100 million a month on the first month they did it. It’s probably up to 200 million a month. Gold’s higher, right? Our work suggests there has been significant interest given Costco’s aggressive pricing and a high level of customer trust, Edward Kelly, an equity analyst at the bank, said in a note to clients Tuesday. The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts quick online sellouts of products and Costco’s robust monthly ecom sales suggest a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch.

Comment physical bullion places you can buy physical bullion are like exchanges, right? If their pricing is good and they advertise and they give access, boom. It’s like electronic trading. Okay, so the world has become an exchange and Costco realizes that. We also sent a story out on Amark yesterday. Kupperman from Praetorian Capital quite nicely explains that model. Well, he doesn’t call it that model. I’m going to call it that for you.

But anyway, Costco selling gold, which means theyre buying gold from Appmex or someone amp or whoever. Okay, so if Kellys assessment is correct, that will represent quite a move for a product that only debuted last August and generated about 100 million in sales in Costcos fiscal first quarter. That ended in late November. My mistake ended in late November. They were 100 million. But now its 100 $200 million a month, it’s closer to $200 million.

In the last two months. I can tell you that Costco is selling 1oz bars made of nearly 24 karat gold. While the price is not disclosed online to non members, it’s estimated the product generally sells for about 2% above spot price, which as of Tuesday morning was around 23 50 an ounce. That will put the price of Costco just more than 2400. Gold has been on a tear this year, with spot prices rising more than 30% in 2024 both pushed higher by a persistent bat of inflation that started in 2022 and investor fear over the state of the deteriorating us fiscal situation.

Yeah, that’s good analysis. That’s what’s going on. The government is on pace for a $2 trillion deficit this year, adding to a total debt load that has surpassed 34 trillion. All right. Nothing really to say about that except, except they’re not buying ETF’s folks, they’re buying physical. So Wall street needs to get its head out of its ass and start being honest. All right. Today’s CPI, some of you may be seeing this before, some afterwards.

I’m going to give it to you in a paragraph. What matters? The last two months of CPI have been hotter than normal. And they have been explained in subsequent fashion to rationalized legitimately that seasonal adjustment, not seasonal adjustments. People raise prices at the end of the year. So January CPI is higher, February CPI is higher, which means by March CPI should back off to back to its downward trend.

That’s what they hope. If it does not back off to that trend, then you know that inflation has done is bottoming, okay? Especially with commodity prices doing what theyre doing now. So if it doesnt back off, theyre out of excuses. Okay? But if it does back off, then you know that this made sense and inflation can resume lower. Most of Wall street thinks it will resume lower if it does resume lower.

Thats called a miss. And a miss is bullish for stocks. If it comes in too hot or too high, it should be bearish for stocks and bearish for gold and bearish for silver. But it’s been acting, it’s been, the markets have been defying bearish news lately. So just keep an eye out for that. That’s all you need to know about CPI. You can wait for the numbers to come out and you can pretty much get an idea what’s going on.

There’s the, the soccer report. Stock gen doesn’t do a lot of technical analysis, but when they do, it’s clean, it’s accurate. And we’ve looked at this, bonds, FX, Brent and silver, and look, to have silver in a report is amazing. To have silver in a title of report is super amazing. To have silver be bullish in a report tells me, your humble correspondent, one thing, they’re showing this to institutions now, institutional macro discretionary funds are looking at this.

Now. I’m not saying they’re buying yet, but they’re on the fence. And if they’re thinking about it and you give them an excuse, boom. So this market is probably in the process of attracting all that money that bought gold for institutional discretionary markets. They’re looking at silver now. Now I’m not saying that they should be buying silver because it’s a very small market compared to the amount of money they can plow into it, but oh boy, if they do, $30 will be a joke.

And mind you, we’re trading above $28 which was, which is above the level that they tamped it down. Right. How come there’s no tamping now? I’ll tell you why, because you can’t stop a freight train, you can only slow it down. All right, let’s go to the chart. I’m not going to show you their chart, but I’m going to show you my chart. Now I’m not a technician per se.

You may remember over the last month I talked a lot about this dead man zone, the 25 26 area, all these wicks here. I’m like we have to get above these wicks, we have to get above these wicks. I call that the deadman zone and all that. Well I saw this but I never really, I never really looked at it but im going to show it to other people, other technicians have looked at it.

A couple of my mutuals on Twitter and Jordan and I have talked about it but this is, its a really pretty looking head and shoulders, inverted head and shoulders. It really is pretty. Now theres more to a head and shoulders than just these three things. Im not going to get into the fine details but they matter. My understanding is that the other things that need to go along with the head and shoulders, like for example rising RSI, even though you have changing levels in slopes, that’s an example.

There’s other examples, volume related examples. So this is bonafide. That’s it. Where’s it going to go from here? Nobody knows. Nobody knows. But it’s reasonable to expect if you are a technician and most institutional macro discretionary players use technical analysis. You take this amount and you add it to that and that’s your first target. You take this amount and you add it to that and that’s your second target and you say well that’s just geometry.

No, it’s not just geometry. The market got pushed down this far by selling. It’ll get pushed up that far by that buying. Okay, and more. But that’s all I’m going to say about it for now. Um, that’s it. Uh, have a great day. Let’s see what CPI does. Uh, just, yeah, be ready, be ready. The world’s catching on. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancy, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin precious metals, where this week’s special is 1oz 2023 dated silver cougarands for only $3.

10 over spot. Cougarans come from the south african mint, one of the six major sovereign mints, and are IRA eligible. Find out more by calling milesFranklin at 833-326-4653 or email us@arcadialesfranklin. com Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. .

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