➡ Vince Lanci on Arcadia Economics discusses various financial and precious metals news, including the stability of gold prices around the 2600s per ounce range. He also mentions the impact of the post-election period on gold prices and the anticipation of potential changes in price views. Additionally, he talks about various market trends, including Bitcoin’s surge above 100K, and the expected addition of 220,000 jobs in November. Lastly, he highlights the importance of observing how stocks perform relative to gold in the coming months.
➡ The market is currently in a big uptrend, but it may go sideways for a while due to election volatility. The focus is on silver, and if it closes the week above 3150, it’s expected to rise further. However, if this doesn’t happen, the market could potentially go lower. This information is not financial advice, but for informational purposes only.

RBC excerpt on gold. There’s a lot more in there. After the post-election weeks of gyration for gold since late November, it is largely held in the rough 2600s per ounce range, notably in line with our Q4 forecast of 2665. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. A lot to talk about. A lot to squish in. I had ideas and then better ideas came up and etcetera, etcetera.

However, just quickly, there’s been reports of gambling on what I say in the morning. So just to make it easy for you all, I will say the M word once every broadcast, even if it doesn’t call for it. And you guys can just do your over under bets on that community of degenerates that I know and love so well. And I will say the M word at some point in this broadcast. Anyway, I’ll participate as well in the gambling. Going forward, we have a lot to cover, right? So, RBC on commodities, CME one ounce futures.

That’ll be in premium. We’ll be discussing that in premium tonight. And unemployment, that’ll be in premium as well. Okay. So, start with the markets. You can look at that. Ten year yields are unchanged at $4.18, $1.0577 up five SP 500 to 6073 flat bid. VIX is 1360, a little bit higher. Gold is 2640, up nine bucks, stable and higher. Silver is 3122, down nine cents. Choppy copper is up a little bit, up about almost a percentage point. For 19 WTI 6795, choppy and lower down 60. Natural gas 283 coming off the highs down 6 cents.

Bitcoin special founders commentary for Bitcoin. We’re going to go through how that whole stop run went from 98 to 103 to 91. We’ll go through that in a special podcast later on today. Fascinating stuff as it relates to gold as well. All right. Ethereum 3874, palladium up 10, platinum down to 936 and platinum 975 and platinum that really spread is really widening. The grain complex 995, unchanged for soy corn, 422 unchanged wheat, 560 up three tenths of a penny. Very stable market right now and pistachios are, I’m sure pistachios right now.

All right. Here we go. Mercantilism, getting it out of the way. All right, discussion. RBC is has a report out called deferred dilemma. We’re just going to read it. We’re going to get through all this today. RBC excerpt on gold. There’s a lot more in there. After the post-election weeks of gyration for gold since late November, it is largely held in the rough 2600s per ounce range, notably in line with our Q4 forecast of 2665. Now the next paragraph they’re hard for you to see. I’ll just show it to you. While Trump’s electoral win and Republican sweep has impacted the thinking around growth uncertainty and rate cuts and thus gold, we are hesitant to change our price view when even if the underlying thinking has shifted.

Bottom line, our bottom line for you. What does all that mean? It’s pretty significant the way they wrote that. Wait until the December outlook for us to make a new comment. Meaning they’re leaning towards lowering expectations if Powell doesn’t cut, although I don’t think he will. See this chart here? As good as RBC’s writing has been. Guys, if you’re listening, you have a third grader with crayons drawing your charts. This is a very informative chart. Just not easy to read. This is dollar rates and correlations. You’ll notice the one that you care about as a gold person is the gold one, the yellow one.

We’re going to go through how to read this in a heartbeat at the bottom in premium. It’s actually very informative. Given the fact that the world has broken into east-west factions, this chart will tell you who’s the dominant force during any given period of time, like a six-month period. I think it’s a great chart if they could just get rid of the crayons. News and analysis, we also do the unemployment numbers as well. News and analysis found this. We just sent out a full version of the unemployment prep. We’ll touch on that a little bit near the end of this conversation for free listeners.

UBS go for gold in 2025. That’s also been picked up by the Jerusalem Post. Bitcoin breaks 100,000, the best gold comparison. That’s our opinion. Missouri bill bans CBDCs, makes gold, and silver legal tender. That’s not brand-new news for hardcore people, but it’s significant. It’s just showing that the shift is continuing to change and the federalization of gold is also growing. Zero hedge edit, Bitcoin cracks 100,000 and that’s a written version of the post that we all, hopefully, that we all heard yesterday morning. PDF, the 2020 COVID censorship report. We don’t do stuff like that, but it was just, I think it’s like a public service to put that out.

There’s a Joe Rogan interview in there, and the guy goes through this report that the government used to censor during COVID. And it’s quite revealing, and the explanation is quite good. Next, market news, buffering, buffering. I had a lot of things I wanted to go through here, but BTC surge is above 100K. We’re going to have a stop-run discussion on mechanics. OpenAI is creating a new, more expensive tier for its flagship. We used chat GPT. This new product so far is nothing special. Everything is buffering. We’re thinking about this. We’re doing that, and the answers are a little bit better.

But it will destroy the workplace as we know it. Why? A product doesn’t have to be better to be used. It only has to cost less for the user, the bottom line versus the top line. In an economy that’s in a world, this is what we are in the West, in an economic world where we’re not interested in growing the business, we’re interested in cutting costs, the bottom line is more important than the top line. In sales, you understand this. Customers will put up with decreased service. Three people are going to get fired at $1,000 a month for this new product at $200 a month.

The customer will put up with shittier service because that’s how it works. That’s what happens in a secular, stagflationary environment. That’s how you end up with a car that becomes a Ford Pentel. They keep cutting back until stuff blows up. The pandemic disrupted the trading behavior. You can read that. I’m just going to give you this comment. No shit. What did you think would happen? Giving people money, giving them a Fed put, and all that free time. Basically, people traded like idiots during the pandemic. Data on deck jobs. You may be seeing this before.

We’ll give you a little bit of insight into that. Data on deck, if you’re seeing it after, well, hopefully you already know what’s going on. Well, I moved through that really quickly. Why don’t I just share a little bit more before I go into the premium. Before I do the final market check, we’ll give you a little bit of the the payrolls. Analysts anticipate that 220,000 jobs were added in November, a significant rebound from November’s dismal 12,000, which was heavily skewed by hurricanes and the bomb strike. Also, hat tip to zero hedge.

I read their premium report and I’m paraphrasing a lot of their stuff in this one, pressed for time today. Lost jobs from these disruptions are expected to be re-added with ING estimating a base figure of 109,000 jobs. Forecasts range from 105 to 284, with bullish projections from major banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Give you some bottom lines. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Wage growth are projected to grow by 0.3%. What does this mean? Well, you’ve got to go into these numbers looking at what the market’s bias is.

The market’s bias is back to bad news is good news for stocks and for gold and for easing. Why? Because the market over the last month has become nervous about the potential for pound not cutting. He might not cut this month, and so they want to see bad news so he can cut. The data for the last month has been violently mixed. The payrolls numbers that came out this week, the earlier numbers, the ADP and what have you, they weren’t that bad, and then other things were bad. So the marketplace wants to see it’s less confident about how easy than it was, and so therefore it wants to see weak data.

So strong data could be bad for stocks and bad for gold, and strong for the dollar, because then everyone will say, oh shit, he’s really not going to ease. Boom, and that’ll just seal it and things will drop off. If that happens, you want to see how stocks perform relative to gold. If gold’s down 2% and stocks are down 1%, well then forget it. We’re done for the next three months. If stocks are down 2% and gold’s down 1%, well then cross your fingers. It might be a good thing coming into the middle of the year.

All right, so that’s my take for you guys. I’m going to share a lot more of this in premium. We’ll do that cut off in a minute, but let’s take a look at the markets. Okay, well look, we’re building a little bit of a shelf here. I like this constructively. I don’t have my moving averages up, but give me an idea. The old gold, you’re trading a wedge. There’s a line going up, a line going down. You’re trading a wedge like from here to here, but you’re still in a big uptrend. So this market can go sideways for a while.

Again, I have no strong opinion between the 15 and 100 day moving average. And I told you what I’m doing. I’m going to be selling butterflies. I’m selling straddles and buying wings, selling ironflies, because I think from here to the end of the year, the market’s going to continue to calm down as we work off all this election volatility. Could we sell off? Sure, we could sell off. But again, my levels are, I’m focused on silver right now. See that? I have percentages up. I don’t know why I did that. I was probably comparing it to something.

There you go. So silver above 3187, 88, 3185. And spot for me, that’s above the level that you need to care about. Look, it’s real simple. If spot closes the week above 3150, then you’re going to get Michael Oliver’s number in March at 3187, clicked. And then you’re probably also going to get Jordan’s level at 32 clicked. So I’m just putting my, that’s an alert. Like I’ll get an alarm. If it closes above there or trades above there, I’m going to bet that it’s going to close above there, obviously. And then the week is, and then we’re off to the races next week.

Unless that happens, this V, you know, those measured moves I like, the V and you get the measured move, this V becomes a channel and the channel comes sideways and we could go lower again. All right, so have a great day everyone. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again next week. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed, financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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