Vince Lanci: Breaking – Bullion Bank Pulls Forward Gold Price Targets | Arcadia Economics
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Breaking bullion bank pulls forward price targets. You’re not going to hear this anywhere else before us, but a major bullion bank raised their price targets yesterday. They’re not going to use the word raised. They use the words pull forward. And we think this had a big impact on why the markets were so decidedly strong on Friday and today. Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.
And now, here is Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. And today’s market rundown. We’re going to talk about gold and the Super Tuesday electoral results. That’s two topics before that. We’ll look at some headlines, but first, let’s run through the markets. The dollar is down 15, trading 100 and 361. Us bond yields are 414 70, basically unchanged after a strong day yesterday. The S and P 500 is up 16 at 1599.
That’s a bounce. Yesterday was a down day. The VIX is trading 14 seven. Gold is trading spot gold is trading 21 32, up $5. Picking up overnight. As we head into european hours, silver is actually up for a change. That’s good. 23 75, up $0. 09. Bitcoin, amazing round trip yesterday. It’s trading 66 81, up 4. 75% and ethereum is up 8%. So we do have a little bit of an alt season going on here.
Copper is up 50 basis points. Platinum palladium are up a little bit and crude oil is up. Natural gas is almost perfectly unchanged at 190 spot seven. And grains are not on your screen right there, but grains are mixed with corn up. Okay, we have a lot to talk about today, so I’d rather just get the information in your hands and we’ll discuss the other stuff in premium later on.
The title tentatively is breaking bullion bank pulls forward price targets. You’re not going to hear this anywhere else before us, but a major bullion bank raised their price targets yesterday. They’re not going to use the word raised. They use the words pull forward. And we think this had a big impact on why the markets were so decidedly strong on Friday and today. We’ll give you a little bit of that in a second.
All right. There is the quote from the report. We pull forward our long standing six to twelve month baseline gold price target of 21 50 an ounce and upgrade the zero to three month and six to twelve month base case targets. We’ll get into what those are in a little bit. So as we said today, we’re going to talk about, briefly, Super Tuesday, all time highs in gold and bitcoin, and pal speaks today in the premium section.
We’re going to stay online here, and we’re going to talk about the bullion bank raising the price target for gold, and the election coverage in a little bit more of an editorial fashion. Yesterday’s stock activity, us equities declined on Tuesday, weighed down by tech shares. Market news or news that we think matters? These are the things that we think are going to drive markets today. Well, the Super Tuesday has to be talked about, right? So let’s just get to that, right? Trump, as expected, dominated Super Tuesday.
Of the states that have reported, Nikki Haley managed to win only one, Vermont. And Trump is thus approaching the number of delegates needed to secure the party’s nomination in July. With little to no challenge, Trump and Biden within their respective parties. A lot of Super Tuesday’s discussion in the media will be devoted to how the results could affect the presidential election this fall. And we’re going to tell you how they’re going to affect the economy in short order in very simple terms.
We’ll discuss that a little bit later on Powell today. All right, Powell’s going to be speaking today. He testifies today and tomorrow in the House of Representatives and the Senate, respectively. It will be interesting to see if there are any clear signals about when the first interest rate cut may come before or after the summer and about QT policy. Most likely, Powell reiterate that there is no rush to cut rates.
He may not cut rates at all. Everyone’s focusing on that. Don’t focus on that. Start focusing on things like QT going from being tapered to being stopped altogether. Focus on things like the reverse twist, Operation Twist. Remember that? Well, Operation Reverse twist may be happening, which is a form of QE. Notable headlines here’s the payoff that we all care about as precious metals enthusiasts, the price of gold has surged to a record high, driven by growing expectations of us interest rate cuts, investors hunting for haven assets, and months of prodigious buying by central banks and chinese investors.
That’s the most important part. The yellow metal struck 21 41 an ounce on Tuesday, beating the previous record of 21 35 set in December. That’s spot futures did not make a new all time high spot did. That’s again a comment on the markets itself. Quick comment on that. You want to watch as a trader, the EFP, which is going to be more obvious than silver, and you want to watch the Shanghai Comex premium spread as it widens.
We go up as it shrinks, we go down. Bitcoin reached a new all time high for the first time in more than two years, topping at 69, 200. Well, and then it sold off violently, six, 7% in sympathy with the stock market. But bitcoin is not the stock market, and it went back up. So every dip because of stocks coming off is now being bought. How long that will go on, I don’t know, but that’s what’s going on now.
China will target economic growth at about 5% this year, a rate that analysts have described as ambitious as the world’s second largest economy battles challenges ranging from a property slowdown to weak investor confidence. You can read the rest there on your own. You have a little bit of news about target. We have the iPhone sales plunging 24%. That’s a big headline out there. Bottom investors have punished banks with heavy exposure to commercial real estate.
Commercial real estate banks are at risk of going under. Regional banks, not the big ones. President Joe Biden on Tuesday will launch a new task force to take on unfair and illegal corporate pricing, which Biden sees as a major reason why consumers are not feeling the impact of cooling inflation rates and a strong economy. Well, that’s because inflation is the rate of change in prices, and high prices don’t come down.
When inflation goes to zero, high prices stay high, and, well, that’s what you get when you tell people to raise prices. Top mainstream media news links, we have that in there as well today. That’s refreshed geopolitically. We’ve got one of each. There’s a bunch of them out there. But basically Hamas, no exchange with prisoners unless there’s a ceasefire. Russia, we’re not really happy with Macron said. And US State Department says we’re backing the Philippines and we’re not happy with what China did.
That’s the gist of those things. Today’s data on deck. There’s a lot of data, but people will be focused on what Fed chair Powell says in front of Congress. There could be some gold questions, right. That’s come up recently. We covered that last week. And there could be some questions about the operation twist, although I don’t think the congressmen or senators have the brain power to discuss that.
Well, let’s put it this way. If they do have the brain power, their constituency doesn’t, and it’s not going to help them get votes by talking about esoteric things like yield curve control and manipulation of yields. But there’s the rest of the data. You can see that. All right, so let’s get to the headline. Here’s an excerpt of the comment now. Citibank is a bullion bank. They are one of the most influential in the world in precious metals.
They don’t grab headlines. They don’t push it on retail. That’s not their business. They’re much more like a morgan than a Goldman Sachs. Their approach is while they have governments as clients so they don’t mess around, they have a report out that came out today. So this is really cutting edge for everyone here. No one else has this except maybe zero hedge, right? Global commodities pulling forward the bullish gold thesis, record prices ahead, question mark.
Citibank says we pull forward our long standing six to twelve month baseline gold price target of 21 50 an ounce and upgrade the zero to three month and six to twelve month base targets of 2000 202,300 respectively. Then they include a couple of charts. There’s a full report on this. We just have an excerpt. We have an extended excerpt. The s and P 500 index in gold terms, that’s what they have there.
So I guess they’re showing the relative value of gold, two stocks and the city official sector gold demand outlook that’s pulled from a report that we shared with premium subscribers earlier in the year. Okay, so what’s the quick comment on that? There’s really no quick comment. Look, when the price goes up and you have a price target, you either raise your target or you don’t. If you don’t raise your target, you’re either being stubborn or you know something and you believe that you’re right for the right reason.
If you do raise your target, and frankly, you either raise your target early or late. If you raise your target late, that’s because the end of the year is coming. You want to make sure your target is closer to reality, right? That’s just the politics of keeping your job in this business. But if you raise your target early in the year like this, it’s no joke. Now I want to tell you that they’re raising the target because they really think it’s going to 2500 or 5000.
And that could be true. But I don’t know. What I really think is the practical reason they’re raising their target now is because the election is coming up and the election is going to be a disaster in my opinion. Meaning just to get a little bit ahead of ourselves on the politics of it. Elections bring about increased certainty until going back to 2008. If you think about it, in 2020, we had a contested election.
It’s still being contested. Whether you agree with it or not, it’s still being contested. And who were the people involved in that election? Biden and Trump. If either one of them are involved in this election coming up, Trump versus Biden, Trump versus, I don’t know, Newsom. Biden versus Haley, not going to happen. But you get my point. If either one of these two are in this, you have a problem.
And the problem is, whatever the election is, someone half the country will be aggressively unhappy. And that’s an election that creates uncertainty. And if election creates uncertainty, then you’re going to see gold and bitcoin, and God willing, if they let it, silver rally. Believe me, silver is being sold because gold is being bought. I’ve said that a million times. And that’s just what’s going on. All right, so that’s the connection between politics and gold and the rate raising.
Now, we have a lot more on that. We’re going to go through in premium at the end of this segment, so stay with us for that. Here’s the commentary on the market today before I put a chart up. Gold all time, new highs and spot stable today. Now, I wrote stable when it was unchanged. Now it’s up $5. Stable, bullish. Right. Silver continues to be sold as a hedge for gold, but even silver is up now.
Interesting. Oil, weak and weaker yesterday, but strong today. Bitcoin, ethereum, new all time highs, then a steep sell off, then a re rally. Look, I mean, if tech sells off 1% and bitcoin sells off 6%, and then tech rallies 25 basis points and bitcoin rallies 6%, you got to pay attention to that. Stocks were weaker on tech yesterday and they’re noisy. A little bit stronger. Looks like everything, everybody’s.
I think I know what’s going on here. And bonds were stronger yesterday and flat today. The dollar is mixed. Okay, so the market today is kind of just squaring up anticipation of pal saying something that could be surprising. Anyway, we’ll give you a little bit of. A little bit of eye. Can you. On the charts, there’s the daily spot gold market, my price targets. I don’t have an upside price target, but I gave you a guideline and that guideline is around 2300 in gold based on that gan line.
And those are my. I’ve refined my levels to watch if the market comes off, and those levels are 20 113. Between ten and 13 is fine on that first level. On the downside, that’s not very important, in my opinion. And 2077 to get bearish. So between 20, 113 and 2077 I’m not of any opinion at all. Below 2077, I would be leaning towards a bearish vibe. And as long as we’re above 20 113, why would you be anything but long? Takes out a new high and doesn’t get rejected.
This market has been permitted to rally. Now it’s being permitted to rally. You know what happens after that? It gets encouraged to rally. Heaven forbid if that happens. Okay, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancey brought to you each day by Miles Franklin precious metals where this week 1oz silver canadian maple leaves from the Royal canadian mint are only 339 over spot.
The silver maple Leafs are one of the most popular silver products and also come from one of the major sovereign mints. To get yours, call Miles Franklin at 833-26-4653 where you’ll have your own dedicated broker who will be happy to answer any questions you have for any of your precious metals buying or selling needs. So call Miles Franklin at 833-26-4653 please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.
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