UBS On Gold: Its Not They End Yet (Of The Rally)

Today we’ll be discussing UBS maintaining reaffirming their price targets for gold even after the run-up and we’ll also be touching on multiple news stories that cover our area of interest but first let’s start with the markets themselves. The dollar is down 10 at 100 spot 60 10-year yields are 360 down one the S&P 500 is 56 52 up 23 and a half the VIX is 16 98 down 15 gold is 25 80 down two bucks was down nine bucks on the lows silver 30 spot 80 up seven cents copper 425 penny and a half gold silver creeping lower as implied WTI above 70 again at 70 39 but down 27 cents this morning natural gas 236 a strong day yesterday bitcoin took it on the chin again yesterday but it’s strong now so we’re in a range between 57 and 61 don’t get too crazy trading 59,000 eight update 61 ethereum is 2300 up 12 platinum palladium again diverging palladium 1093 up 14 and platinum 984 down two grains are flat to slightly stronger soy 1020 unchanged corn 399 effectively unchanged and wheat 585 up 2 and 2 and 80 basis points so 2.8 cents all right you’re looking at the gold chart there that’s a weekly that’s a uh channel that i decided to put up for future analysis it starts here on the daily want to talk about the gold charts in a second the news ubs maintains we describe what we’re going to see we’re seeing it now here’s the front page gorman pulls up on silver we explained how we felt about that and uh how they’re going to suggest a play it evidence suggests swap dealers acting like they’re closing shop that’s a sunday two-hour conversation that we had with founders ubs this report just went out ubs reiterates spot to 2600 by year end and 2700 by mid 2025 we’re going to discuss that right now and there’s other stories all right ubs maintains ubs updated its view on gold on september 12th in a two in a two-page note from its cio it reiterated two clients its current position on gold post the rally all right number one they maintain a bullish outlook for gold the projections of u.s dollar 2700 by mid 2025 2600 by end of the year by the way the current macroeconomic setup including ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitics supports their forecast investors their investors are advised to maintain an allocation of gold as it continues to act as a hedge against market volatility full analysis in that link right there sharing there’s a big contextual comment that’s in that analysis that we gave and i want to share a little about a little bit of that with you now ubs does not represent traders although they do trade their own book ubs has pensions wealth funds and affluent clients they protect these people zealously so they’re not raising their target that is by all risks of short-term mindset bearish when you don’t raise a target after a rally it’s bearish ask any equity guy however because they are incredibly conservative they’re not going to do that and i’ll give you an example on december third sunday night which led into december fourth gold had an unprecedented 165 rally that morning this same cio put out a note to their clients he’s singapore based by the way and he said gold is overbought do not buy do not sell implicitly he’s saying gold’s going to continue going up don’t get excited by this rally and don’t view it as a time to puke and he was right so i tend to view this person this the cio at ubs as someone who represents their client books interest who tends to come out at important moments and says toe the line get out or buy the dip now later on between december and february he said if there’s a dip we would be a buyer but we’re not a buyer yet so i’ve seen this guy whoever he is i’m not going to say his name here really do right by his clients and as an experienced trader who watched ubs for years they’ve always done that when they put their public face on and they’re trading their trading is just like any other bank’s trading but they protect their clients so there’s that whole story there the news there’s a lot of news there’s enough news that i’m creating at least temporarily precious metals section all right so there are three stories that i want to get out there they’re going to develop but i want you to see them first you get it here first and if it’s worth reading about we’ll hopefully put some meat on the bone for you all right g7 has an embridge answer top commercial banks join g7 led central bank digital currency trial london 40 of the world’s leading commercial banks have joined a g7 led pilot scheme with the new york fed and leading central banks from europe read the bis korea and japan the bis for a new digital currency platform designed to speed up and enhance cross-border payments there’s a link to that story is right there originated with reuters which is really just a rewrite of the press release that the imf came out with i think it was the imf maybe the bis same thing second story russian gold what is russia doing with china some russian businesses have begun using gold to pay chinese suppliers to get around us sanctions and threats of sanctions against chinese banks affecting russia china bank transfers this is out of an asian uh story the bottom line here is we all know about the russian sanctions but the us is now threatening china with more sanctions against aiding and betting russia so russia is almost preemptively carefully advising their businessmen and trans actors of business in china to use gold whenever appropriate and it goes through how they actually get the gold to them they use carriers uh what have you that’ll be replaced by blockchain down the road but they will be using gold third story tax abolition new jersey joins other states in eliminating sales tax on gold and silver mike i’m not sure how to say his name mahari uh noted this sound money advocates are hailing their hard-fought victory today as new jersey’s senate bill 721 was signed into law thereby removing sales tax on purchases of gold silver and other precious metals above one thousand dollars effective january 2025 so other states and now new jersey are eliminating sales tax being more permissive with the use of precious metals as a substitute for money itself you can’t tax money so to speak so there are implications for this and the implications are exactly what you think they are in any just zooming out a little bit the federal government generally speaking does not mandate what the state should do generally speaking it waits for a majority of the states to agree on something whether it be row v wade when they uh passed it and when they removed it whether it be um uh pot when enough states are in on it and have legalized it then the federal government says oh we can make money off of that and they’re going to change the law when enough states have this approach towards gold and silver the federal government’s going to do it as well that’s how these things happen ground up determines top-down behavior when it comes to policy and this will also partially rescue the u.s we need to own more gold and silver and in doing this it’s going to encourage it at the individual and state level and the federal government it’s going to clear the way for in my opinion down the road a federal asset-backed bond because there’s going to be no local sales tax when you buy a treasury there’s no federal state or local sales tax that’s why it’s beautiful so when you buy a gold bond in the future there will be no maybe there’ll be federal but there’ll be no local state or sales sales tax all the states remove sales tax from gold and silver then that’s creating a pre-packaged market for the federal government to distribute uh product or uh mandate that’s a mandate okay moving forward today u.s retail sales at 8 30 a.m pretty important uh let’s see what the market does but tomorrow is the fed open interest rate decision there is a debate about 25 to 50 basis points this is real this is very new uh all the data has been 25 basis points 25 basis points 20 all the data is saying that but then yesterday i forget his name dudley dudley comes out and basically says we should have 50 basis points where he makes it look like it’s not such an easy decision and then uh nick timaros he’s in a story i have up here where is that under market news wall street journals i’m gonna try to say his name timaros wrote fed repairs to lower rates with size of first cut in doubt the central bank usually prefers to move in increments of a quarter point this time it’s complicated now i’m not sure if he’s just throwing it out there to give the well-balanced uh story for conversation or he’s really channeling something that the fed is uh is uh considering i don’t know but uh my bet is on 25 basis points uh but i’m not betting right all right so let’s go back to the markets the final market check all right what did i give i gave you some levels yesterday right here we go maintain gold bullishness on any day that does not want today that does not settle below 25 44 85 make it 25 64 29 unless we settle below 25 64 the market should flag and then work higher silver so it was actually easier ready based on this and some work that myself and me and another another founder did uh this is crazy it’s like this is not headline stuff don’t put it in a headline uh silver should just go up now right it’s crazy to say but let me give you a level unless silver cracks 30 19 and settles below unless silver settles below 30 19 or trades below 29 84 today tomorrow should be another update that’s it have a great day thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with vince lancey brought to you each day by miles franklin freshest metals who we encourage you to contact your next gold or silver order and miles franklin brings us a gold and silver special each week and if you’ve been looking for a pullback in the rally to purchase gold and silver this week’s deals include one ounce silver fill harmonics from the austrian men and the austrian figure fortunately these beautiful coins are only three dollars and 10 cents over spot while we still do have silver under the 30 dollar level which it obviously eclipsed earlier this year and on the gold side this week’s special is one ounce gold cougarands for only 60 dollars over spot and again you can place an order by calling 8 3 3 3 2 6 4 6 5 3 or emailing us at arcadia at miles franklin.com happy to answer any questions you have and get you set up with whatever you need so call us at 8 3 3 3 2 6 4 6 5 3 and as always thanks for watching please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching
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