Michael Olivers Important Message To Precious Metals Bulls | Arcadia Economics

We’ve noticed that most market research timing reports, even those that claim a positive bias towards gold, have been skeptical of the recent advance. Many have urged their subscribers to take profits repeatedly, here and there, and often expressed doubt that this surge is sustainable. That’s the sort of advice that is tended to move many gold investors out of the market based on being cautious. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince.

Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy, and this is the morning meeting. We’re going to be talking about precious metals again today, but I want to talk about them in the context of where we’ve been and where we’re headed. And we’re going to do that with the help of Michael Oliver’s 360 weekend report, which we subscribe to and are permitted to share excerpts from with our audience. So we’re going to share some of that with you. We think it’s a very important moment in time to that effect, and we want to update everyone and keep everyone’s hand on the wheel properly.

Okay, before we do that, let’s take a look at the markets. Here we go. The dollar is $104.54 down eight basis points. Ten-year yields are $442 down two basis points. The S&P 500 is $5.31. $53.10 up two handles. The VIX is $12.45 up 30 basis points. Gold is $24.19 down five. It was then around nine bucks last night. Silver is $31.68 down 12 cents. Copper is 508.70 up almost two cents. WTI is down a buck 15, 78.57. That’s good, incidentally. Lower oil means they’ll be able to ease, which will make gold and oil go higher.

But there you have it. Natural gas, $2.70 after a tarred day yesterday is up an additional 2%. Bitcoin also had a very nice move yesterday, $71,380, basically unchanged today. Ethereum, $3,792 up 130. You’ll see Ethereum catching up to Bitcoin, and that’s because the ETF potential for Ethereum is back on the table, and the market’s broken free of $3,000, and it’s now threatening $4,000. All right, those are the markets. Well, let’s finish them up, actually. Platinum and Palladium. Palladium 1028 up a buck. Platinum 1048 basically down a buck. So that gap is narrowing.

That’s pretty significant. I’m not sure what it means yet, but I know it’s significant. Soybeans, corn, and wheat. Soybeans are down $0.08 at $12.29. Corn is $4.47 down $0.02, and wheat is $6.95 up $0.02. So the grains are soft, but wheat bucks the trend. Excuse me. All right, what are we going to do? We’re going to talk about… I’ll leave this chart up while I intro this. Speaking about gold and silver and miners, actually. Even though miners haven’t moved like gold and silver, they certainly have moved off their lows. After a big move, all good risk managers catch their breath and reassess.

Many are telling clients to peel off length, and Michael Oliver is not. Rather, he is giving the go-ahead to not be cynical and wait for the next shoe to drop, as it so often has in the past. As we have said before, the lid is off on these markets, and it will be a matter of shortening time before the rest of the world realizes it. And this weekend, in his weekend 360 report, he updates subscribers on all major markets. Stocks, bonds, gold, miners, et cetera. But he’s focused this week on monetary metals, and T-bonds.

We’re going to share an excerpt from the monetary metals with you. And before we share it, we just want to add this. After a big move in any market, it’s always good to take stock, and most of you probably are. The external advice you’re going to get is likely from many people, and I’m not saying they’re wrong, but I’m saying they’re going to say, take some profits here. And that’s the old gold and the old silver. And the reason it’s the old gold and the old silver, not just because the lid is off, or because I say the lid is off, but because we’re always waiting for the other shoe to drop.

We have been trained to think, you know, the lid isn’t off. And I’m telling you that the lid is off. That’s why I say that. It’s a psychological thing. So when advisors tell you to take profits, that advice could be very, very good. Always close risk when you’re unsure of a situation. That’s a motto that I stick to very strongly. However, 20, 30 years of this have made us all potentially people that cut profits short. Right? So temper your cautiousness with enthusiasm. This time is different. And the price action is different.

Empirically, it’s different. And so the behavior that led to the price action is different. Will it continue to be different? Nobody knows. But with all that in mind, I’d like to share with you some things that Michael has said on that effect. So that preamble done. Here’s the front page. Russian gold reserves grow again. Russia has seized over 700 million euros. And Michael Hartnett report is out. That’s the front page from yesterday. Important update for Michael. We’re going to get to that presently. And I guess my comment is we’ve come a long way.

We have a long way to go. All right. Here we go. Regarding this is an excerpt from his report, and we’ll have the link to his site if you wish to subscribe there. We have no financial relation with him other than Goodwill. Regarding the monetary metals acceleration and our analysis of those markets by Michael Oliver, MSA markets, we now argue that gold and related are entering the more dramatic phase of their bull trend. Furthermore, we argue that this bull trend is of greater magnitude and significant than prior bull trends, especially when compared to the external economic, social and political factors that were then in play from the mid late 1970s and from 2000 2011.

This is not just another gold bull trend. We’ve noticed that most market research timing reports, even those that claim a positive bias towards gold, have been skeptical of the recent advance. Many have urged their subscribers to take profits repeatedly here and there and often expressed doubt that this surge is sustainable to the point of what I just said. That’s the sort of advice that is tended to move many gold investors out of the market based on being cautious. No doubt many analysts have been biased distorted by the technical actions that they’ve grown accustomed to since the mid 2020 highs when gold had entered a range and silver and the miners entered a staircase corrective decline.

Those dynamics are misleading and have no doubt caused many orthodox technicians to accept the recent behavior by these markets as normal. In fact, it was highly abnormal. MSA will alert their subscribers to any credible correction, but we don’t want to scare our subscribers out of what will likely be the most significant investment decision of their lives. That is being in the current monetary metal advance, remaining in. We have a longer excerpt from that section at the bottom with a couple more charts to go with it. I want to share with you that knowing Michael for a relatively brief period of time and not not a huge technical analysis person, I appreciate it when someone who has been bullish takes stock of a situation, but doesn’t in a knee jerk fashion tell you take your profits.

Frequently, hundreds analysts, they will say that because they don’t want to be wrong. And because they have been bitten in the ass, you know, metaphorically, so many times by a market distorted by banking behavior and skewed in perception by mainstream media coverage. So we all tend to become a little bit scared and disbelieving of our own good fortune. Well, you can believe it. It’s happening. He goes on to continue back the vibe of his report. He goes on to talk about there are retracements headed our way, right? They could be big, but none of them is meaningful.

I’ll let you know if they are meaningful. That’s his point about the credible correction. But this is unlike most other rallies. To just cap that off, if you’re asking why is it unlike most other rallies as I do? Well, empirically, the market is at all time highs in all three commodities simultaneously. This isn’t silver. This isn’t gold. This isn’t copper. This is commodities and metals are the energy of the future for all these other reasons. All the other reasons that we talk about are here. The other reason that this is different is because if you are a technician and you see that ridiculous cup and handle, well, that’s the purest formation I’ve ever seen in metals.

And it’s not only the purest formation, it’s the purest formation that actually happened. It didn’t get rejected. How many times have pundits been saying to you over the years, this is a cup and handle, or that’s a wedge, or this is going to be a breakout. It’s not a breakout until it’s a breakout. Well, we’re in the breakout now. So believe it. The lid is off. And I happen to agree with Michael. If you are nervous and you do want to take profits and a portion of your money is trading scared, then take those profits.

But most stackers aren’t trading scared because they’re not trading with leverage. So let’s move on. Anyway, I think it’s a very good, very heartening, very wise message from Michael to subscribers. And I fully subscribe to that message. In market news, moving to market news, the Wall Street journalist Tim Rose posted the Fed staff expect core PCE rose 2.75% April from a year earlier while he added that most analysts likewise have core PCE rising by 0.24% in April, which would put the six month annualized rate of core PC inflation at 3.2%. Okay. If that just made you dizzy, they’re not alone.

This is space being filled. There’s nothing to talk about right now. So they’re going to talk about what they think is going to happen. USF DIC chairman Gruenberg told staff he plans to step down after successors confirmed. You’re going to start seeing, well, you’re already seeing it, but executives, call them boomer executives, executives at major financial firms are going to start going into the sunset. Now, the knee jerk reaction by people is, oh, they’re going to sunset because of a recent scandal or because of recent that, or they’re, or they’re taking it, uh, uh, for the team and those things are all true.

Also, I think the smart money in the smart management is getting out before the shit hits the fan, not after. On that note, Jamie Diamond told investors on Monday that the search for his eventual successor was on the way. No scandals at JP Morgan this week. Right. People are getting ready to move, to move South to go to Florida, to go to the Caribbean, Microsoft is touting new computers with advanced microchips. Now, why did I put this here? Because if the eighties through the O’s was about software, let’s call it the nineties through the tens was about software.

The twenties through the forties will be about hardware. You remember when the whole computer thing started? It was computers. This computer is better than that computer. And they started racing each other in terms of their performance. And then between say the nineties and the tens, it was all about the software computing power had starts to double, but there’s really no improvement to it. Well, now we’re in the hardware era. This is why we have to reshore manufacturing. The chips determine the hardware, the hardware determine the capacity, supercomputing. All these things are going to make hardware more important than software.

Again, AI might be an exception, but think about it. Can you use AI without really stepped up computing? And that’s what’s going on there. And they’re at the bottom. Daddle and deck today, just speakers premium. You see the, there’s the picture, right? And we have a little bit more of that excerpt and again, happy to plug Michael’s work. Vince, have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancy brought to you each day by miles, Franklin Precious Metals, where this week’s special is 2023 dated one ounce silver Cougarands from the South African mint for only $3.10 over spot.

And even with the price rallying, fortunately, the premiums are still on the lower side and to get a full price list or place an order for silver Cougarands at $3.10 over spot, just email us at Arcadia at miles, Franklin, and we’ll be happy to get you set up with anything you need. And as always, thanks for watching. Hope you’re having a great day out there. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license, financial trading advice, and is to be used for informational purposes only, please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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