Bob Kudla – What We Are Witnessing Is The End Of The [CB] Watch What Happens Next –
Summary
➡ The text discusses potential changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy through 2024, suggesting that rate increases might be delayed due to weaker economic indicators. This period might see growth in the value of items like Bitcoin, gold, and silver. It also covers a perspective on the current political situation, the state of the economy, and trading options available. The speaker is critical of the current administration’s economic strategies, viewing them as delusional, and suggests an impending economic downturn.
➡ The summary is about the deteriorating economic conditions; people above 50 are losing their jobs with little hopes of finding new ones, the median sale price of homes has dropped significantly, causing forced sales at discounts. In the global context, there’s a brewing discontent among citizens leading to potential intra-country strife due to economic hardships and immigration issues. The potential outcome of this tumultuous situation might heavily depend on U.S.’s stance and strength. On a closing note, the guest, Bob invites listeners to join his trading system.
Transcript
They have a lot higher fuel costs than the red states. And do you think this is because of their entire agenda, their green New Deal? Is that why it’s pushing the cost of energy in these states much, much higher than the red states? Dave, you’re trying to hurt me. I live in a blue state. Oh, boy. And, yeah, you should just read our electric bill, and you should read the legislation that they put out here.
California is trying to go, I think, by 2030. They’re trying to go, like, all renewable. And there is a chart out there that shows that the higher the renewable rate is as a percentage of your energy use, the higher your average cost of living is. So it’s not just gasoline, which we’re getting hit with taxes on that. But electricity. We get taxed on. We had a nuclear power plant.
I’m still getting taxed on the nuke plant. Shutdown that. They shut a nuke plant down in our area. I get hit with that, and then we get hit with carbon charges. So, yeah, absolutely. They’re making themselves non competitive, and you’re just going to see more and more high paying manufacturing jobs moving to the red states, and especially red states that have organic, natural gas and oil production in it.
So, yeah, absolutely. It’s just mind boggling. And Europe is just totally screwed. So we’ve been doing a great trade. Just because you sell our natural gas to Europe, they got to ship it there. So the shippers have been doing just outstanding, and that’s going to continue for a couple of years. So the people in California, are they complaining at all that the energy costs are very high? Yeah, we’re kind of numb to know a lot of people here make a lot of money, so I think it’s more lost than them.
I guess if you get more into the communities where there’s probably more the know, or in the Central Valley where people have to drive a lot and a lot of farms, I’m sure there’s a lot more dissatisfaction regarding the energy area here, but not so much. It’s kind of weird. People here are stupid. Yeah. I mean, now we’re coming up to the holiday season, and we just had Black Friday.
How do you think it’s going so far with the retail sales for this holiday season? Yeah, they say they’re up two and a half percent, but there’s a caveats here. Number one is that inflation, if you believe the inflation number, even the best case inflation number is three and a half percent. Right. So we’re actually falling behind on an inflation weighted basis. But what I’ve also been told is that they’ve done a lot of what’s called buy now, pay later schemes.
Remember the old layaway when we were kids? Right. A lot of that’s coming back in terms of, hey, you could buy it now and then you could pay it over time. I mean, if you buy anything like on where was I just saw it, I forget. I saw a thing on Amazon. You can buy it now and you could break your payments into like four or eight payments.
So they’re doing those kind of things just to induce purchases. And I don’t know about where you live, but where I live, black Friday specials started right after Halloween, so they’ve been trying to kill inventory here for the last month. So I say it’s tepid at best. And you can look at the credit card spending. We’re over a trillion dollars now. So basically this is the yolo trade because people’s credits are being tapped out.
So it’s going to be really interesting to see going forward, more retailers are going out of business than ever before. And in January and February, usually when they clear the inventory, they’ll start shutting down more stores again. I suspect that’ll continue. Do you think they had to do that, buy now, pay later, because people are maxed out on their credit cards and they had no room to do that, so they had to introduce this? Yeah, absolutely.
And they’re not charging interest. So it’s really just it’s just really a scheme just to move inventory at this point. Yeah, I totally believe that. So do you think after the holiday season because people always they don’t want to give up their way of life, they want to have a nice holiday. So people are most likely going to purchase just like they did last year because they don’t want things to change.
Do you think 2024 is going to be a disaster? Because we’re already getting companies already projecting layoffs right now. Oh, yeah. I mean, our prediction is 2024, recession is baked in. There’s no way they can get around it. They may be able to cover some of the numbers up because of inflation in terms of looking at numbers, but from people’s lifestyles, it’s going to feel like a pretty severe recession.
Yeah. And they’re already laying people off now. What do you call the report that you have to do to say that you’re going to lay off X amount of employees 60 days ahead? That is surging right now. My daughter has a friend that works at Amazon Distribution, and they did a massive purge and in September, and they didn’t really hire everybody back for the Christmas season. FedEx told pilots that are contract pilots to seek work elsewhere because they’re not going to have enough flights to cover it.
Shipping companies that are shipping stuff out of China. Mayor slate off 10,000 employees. Wow. Which tells you and then Gigi Ping came here, licked Tin cup to make nice with the US. Because their manufacturing is getting absolutely obliterated. So even if we were friends, China would be in big trouble because nobody’s buying anything. So, yeah, 2024 is like inventory is going to be scrapped, the restocking is going to be low.
Everything’s going to be optimized. What do you call it? They right size it. In other words, they say, I’m going to fire you. So, yeah, my expectation is that we’re going to be in big trouble at 2024. Yeah, it’s starting to look that way. And while I guess the entire system is breaking down, it’s very interesting that bitcoin is continually moving up. I mean, it’s up to 37,000 and I don’t know, with your algorithms and what you’re seeing, do you think it’s going to go up? Do you think it’s going to go down? Where do you think it goes next? Yeah, so our algorithm actually looks at the momentum it was following this price up, but from a macro point of view is we think when these ETFs are released, we think this is like Front buying Dave by BlackRock and others to build up their collateral for the ETFs that they’re launching.
So we expect a pullback in bitcoin until the Fed blinks, and then we should see bitcoin, then move up higher. I don’t know how far down it will go. Our suspicion was going to get to the low 20s, but I don’t think it’s going to get down that far anymore. And here’s a tell for people. Look what’s happening with Mara and Riot and the other bitcoin miners. They’re not tracking like they used to track.
And when you see divergences like that, that’s like gold is going up, but the gold miners are not, is that it makes the underlying price suspicious. So we think it’s an anomaly. The other thing that happened to Dave is that Janet Yellen changed. It’s called the QRA, which is basically the average size of the duration for the bonds that she sells. And that falling. It’s almost like a stimulus.
And bitcoin and gold reacted positively to that. So the good news there is that once the Fed blinks, and they’re going to have to blink at some point here in the next six months, is that it’s going to buoy bitcoin and gold to much higher levels. Now, if you’re a long term holder in both, don’t do anything. If you’re a trader, when you get a sell signal for a swing trade, then you can modify your size or sell your position because it will dip back down four, five, $6,000 before it moves back up higher again.
When you say the Fed might blink, what do you mean by blink? Well, when they actually start lowering interest rates and or initiate bond buying again, because at some point, I think it’s $9 trillion we have to refinance in the next two years. $9 trillion? Right. I don’t think there’s enough private capital out there in the world to absorb $9 trillion of new and existing bonds, us. Treasury bonds.
So that means the Fed has to come in and raise their balance sheet again. That’s what I mean by blinking. And that’ll be inflationary and then Bitcoin, Gold, silver, energy will all move with that. So do you think the Fed through 2024, do you think they’re going to keep the rate steady and then start lowering it, or do you think they’re going to bring it up one more time and then start lowering it? Yeah, that’s the big don’t.
I don’t know. I mean, Jerome Powell is kind of pissed at Janet Yellen because she pulled a fast one here in terms of changing the mix of the Bonchies buying, I mean, selling. And it just basically is countering what he’s trying to do in terms of stamping out excess speculation in the markets. And so he may try to raise it one more time just to make that lower end of the rate range intolerable.
And so a lot of people are saying that he’s going to do it December, but here’s the deal. If he doesn’t do it in December, the January macro numbers for the economy are going to be too weak for him to probably pull the trigger. And so then he’s probably done. But what I’ve been reading, though, from people far smarter than me are saying that he may just be steady Eddie in 2024 until things get intolerable from the economic standpoint, and he has to follow the economy down by lowering rates.
So people are saying that he’ll be lowering in March. We don’t think so. He probably won’t lower interest rates till the summertime unless he absolutely has a gun to his head. Yeah, I think you’re right. I think he’s probably going to lower probably like, in July, August, because I don’t think he’ll do it during the election period of time because it’s too close, and I guess it would cause too many problems.
And I don’t think they like to do it during the election period of you know and this is kind of setting up the same way. Remember when they bounced George Bush out to bring Clinton in? This is setting up the same type of scenario where economic weakness and he held off on lowering the rates until it was too late to help Bush. And I think the same thing setting up here with Biden.
I don’t think Powell is a big fan of the he’s. He’s he’s a Republican, so I don’t know how much he wants to lend a hand to the Bidenomics. Right. So it’s going to be really interesting to see. But I think he’s going to hold steady longer than people want him to and probably longer than the economy can tolerate. So, as this is all playing out, we’re seeing gold, it’s over $2,000 an ounce, and people are saying it’s going to go much higher.
Where do you think it’s going to go? I agree with that. I think once this QE goes, the suppression in the short interest in gold, I wouldn’t be shocked to see an easy doubling gold prices in the next 18 months for sure. Silver for sure is going over $30. And a lot of these banks, they nakedly shorted a lot of silver and gold contracts that they haven’t covered yet.
And I mean, you look at Citicorp has $190,000,000,000, what they called assets sold, or how do they say assets sold, not yet bought, which basically is saying we have naked short positions. But that’s a lot of money. Most of the stuff they’re shorting is they’re trying to suppress interest rates and they’re trying to suppress gold and silver prices. And so when those things unwind in 2016, platinum palladium doubled in four months because Putin decided not to export platinum and palladium, he got into a TIFF.
And the people that were short the contracts got their heads handed to them and there’s nothing like a short squeeze to move prices very quickly. And that’s what’s going to happen with gold and silver. These things aren’t just going to slide up, they’re going to pop like a cork that’s been held underwater. So it’s all going to come to fruition here when he has to take off the brakes.
And then just like bitcoin, gold and silver will go in the same direction. Yeah. Since we’re heading into 2024, it’s a volatile time with layoffs. We see bitcoin and gold moving up and with the Fed rate. So for those people that are looking to get into trading and looking to trade not just bitcoin and gold, but other stocks, do you have any specials or anything running this month? Yeah.
So, Dave, since we’re talking after know, we just finished our Black Friday special, we’re going to extend it one more week to next Saturday for your listeners. So just go to Trade Like a Genius. com or Tradegeniusacademy. com or Tradegenius Co, and they all go to the same place and you could check out our bundles. Lowest prices of the year. We haven’t raised them. So these are killer good prices.
You could trade stocks with US crypto, you could trade options and futures in our room. And one thing that we added this year, Dave, we added a new enhanced indicator that basically took two of our existing ones and modified to code based on what we’re seeing in the market. And we create it’s called the Trade Force indicator. And it really is designed for one decision kind of indicator.
So you can basically see the buy and the sell very easily and people are absolutely loving it and it’s flying off the shelf. So any level of bundle that you buy from us, you automatically get that the trade force indicator we’re charging for our services, nothing compared to what you’ll get out of it. And we’re doing quite well. Volatility, which is coming into the market here with a recession, is our friend recessions.
People are worried like, oh, there’s a recession. How do you make money in the stock market? Tremendous opportunities, depending on what the recession is. That’ll depend on what will move. Like if it’s going to be an inflationary recession because there’s QE, but economic conditions are falling. Gold, silver, bitcoin, energy will move with the Fed pumping money in. If it’s a good old fashioned recession, you buy bonds like TLT.
And in 2008, when we had our last big recession, it went up 40%. I don’t know about you, but I’ll take a 40% year any day of the week. And all you had to do is sit and wait for the Fed to come back in the market again and you close your bond position and you made really good money and you sidetracked the whole market sell off, which is coming.
We will get in 2024 a good double digit. What I mean, double digit over 20% reduction in stock prices. And that doesn’t mean that gold and silver and bitcoin and bonds won’t be a buy. They absolutely will be depending on how the Fed reacts to it. So tremendous opportunity now. And also we’ll help you in terms of what sectors to stay away from. And so that if you have your own personal accounts that you don’t trade but you have professionally managed, you can at least advise your advisor to make sure you keep them on their toes so we can help you regardless of how you like to trade.
Great. I’ll put all the links at the bottom of the video to make it a lot easier for people to go right mean. Right mean. We’re talking about the economy falling apart and things not going well. But Biden’s economic advisor, Bernstein, he’s, and actually, you know, they’re moving in the right direction, the right track. It feels like they’re continually keeping this narrative up, that everything is fantastic. What do you make of this? There’s a psychological term for that.
It’s called delusional. Yeah. So look, obviously they have to say that because you’re going to run into election season, say, hey guys, we’re not really doing that well, but hey, vote for us, right? These guys firmly believe in their heart of hearts they’re creating a more just and fair and prosperous society for everybody. It’s just pure delusion because these people are academics. They don’t live in the real world and they’re so arrogant that they never admit that they have a problem.
How many times does communism have to fail before people say for the Communists, say communism doesn’t work. Right, they’re just full of beans here. Their right track is actually total control of your entire life. So in their sense it is going the right way for them, but from an economic prosperity standpoint, absolute disaster. And it’s getting worse. This is the first time in my life that I feel there’s going to be people that are totally going to be hopeless.
Can you imagine living a middle class or slightly above middle class life between when you’re born until you’re like mid fifty s, and at that point on you’re in poverty? Can you imagine the anger that’s going to be generated from that? And I think that’s what we’re seeing, Dave. If you look around the world, I think people are waking up and like, oh my God, what did we allow to happen? And I think it’s going to be nothing like unmet expectations of a population to really blow people out of power.
This whole thing is reminding me of 2008, 2009, when Obama was in office, when everything well, he was coming into office, he was running against McCain. McCain was saying, the economy is great, and then the economy crashed in October, I think the market came down. And then throughout that period of time, people were struggling through the Great Recession. And it feels like we’re back to where we started, but actually worse.
And people are feeling it right now and they’re struggling. I think it’s worse, Dave, because there’s no escape. Now. If you’re over 50 years old and you had a great job and you lose that job, you’re not getting another one. Right. I think we’ve talked about this before. I have two friends that are in the It consulting space. Both of them made over $200,000 a year. Both are laid off.
Laid off awful. And I just talked to one guy last Friday and asked him how’s the job search going? He said, I may have something in January. I might. So he’s been out of work six months. Okay. He already sold his house and downsized his home. He was lucky. He was able to sell pretty close to the top and buy something cheaper that he’s not carrying a mortgage.
But other people that have a mortgage, they’re going to be blowing out of the houses. Before we got on the call here, I just got a report of the 17. 6% reduction in the median sale price of a home from October 22 to October 2317. 6 reduction in average median sales price. So people are going to be forced to sell. They’re going to be forced to sell and they’re going to be forced to sell at a discount.
So people that think they have cushion in their homes to be able to live off of, at the end of the day, they may not have any cushion whatsoever. And it’s just going to be brutal. I’m just going to be hard to watch. Yeah, I agree with that. But I think what’s happening now, since people around the world are seeing this and experiencing it, especially in those countries that have been really hit hard, like know france and Ireland and the Netherlands.
I think there is change right now because in Argentina, we have the new president, Javier, and he’s talking about closing the central bank. What do you make of mean where he’s saying there’s no negotiation? Yeah, no, this is the end game for the central banks. They took it as far as they could. And yeah, he doesn’t mince any words either. If you ever listen to his translations, I mean, he is not kind to leftist.
He doesn’t view them as opponents. He views them as vermin because he views them as pure. Then, you know, you had that election, and then you had the election in the Netherlands basically said closing Islamic schools, you commit a crime, you’re not a citizen, you’re deported. No more immigration in this country. And then in Ireland, they rioted downtown Dublin because migrants stabbed some Irish schoolchildren. And so I just think it’s boiling over and people are really angry.
And people always say, well, this is how kind of world war II got started, because the communists were in power in a lot of places in Europe, and you had this right reaction when I mean right I mean, right of center politics, and it went too far, and then you ended up having a global conflict from it. And I think we’re seeing that same reaction again. The left never gives up until they get blown up, and I think we’re at that stage again.
So do you think this is leading to World War Three? I don’t know if World War Three, but there’s going to be probably a lot of intercountry strife. Is that a good way of putting you know, if the United States melts down, then we’ll have World War Three. But if the United States stays monolithic and keeps our military strong and engaged, which I’m not advocating one way or another, I’m just speaking truth here, it’ll probably keep the lid on a lot of things.
I think the Chinese back down this, know, Russians have no hope to challenge us. Iran did not engage because we parked three aircraft carriers around Lebanon. And know and they know full well if they engaged, that they would be basically obliterated. And whether you agree with or just disagree with what’s happening over there, it is what it is. But if the United States if we have issues here, then I think the whole world will go into some sort of wild kind of a devolution, if you will.
That’s kind of my view of it. Bob, thank you very much for being on the X 22 Report Spotlight. Once again, if people want to join up to your trading system, how can they join? Yeah, go to Tradeligagenius. com, pick one of the bundles. Make sure you get the Black Friday special. You can call us or you can chat with us and we’ll get the right plan for you, depending on how involved you want to be.
There’s just seven bundles so you can pick the one that works best for you. And like I said, the pricing is always the ROI is in your favor. Thanks for letting me share that, Dave. Great. I’ll put all the links at the bottom of the video. Bob, once again, thank you very much for being on the spotlight. I really appreciate it. Thanks, Dave. You, too. Thank you. .
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