Hey, everybody, economic ninja here. I hope you’re doing well. You know what’s not doing well? Commercial real estate. I know we’ve talked about it before, but today we’re going to talk about clos, or collateralized loan obligations. And their distress rate just surpassed 10%. Actually made a big jump up. I want to talk about that. It’s important because the bonds and the security instruments, financial instruments that are attached to these are hurting.

They’re in the hurt locker. And the companies trying to raise money to get out of these problems are finding that the borrower costs are exploding higher, and they’re getting into more and more distress. All right, real quick, before we go on the crypto trader pro course, the pre filming discount has about 28 hours left, and it goes away forever. So if you want to go take a look at that, the links down below.

Crediq’s research team continues to examine the commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation ecosystem for multiple perspectives. Multiple perspectives, including Crediq’s latest loan information from March of 2024, reporting that reporting period. In this report, we explore the breakdown of the distress levels of commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations during the first quarter of the year. Now, from some of the largest issuers of CRe CLO debt over the past five years include MF, one, Arbor Loan, core benefit, Street Partners, Bridge Investment Group, FS Rialto, and TPG.

Now, Crediq consolidated all of the loan level performance data for every outstanding CRE CLO loan to measure the underlying risks associated with these transitional assets. Let me break that down real quick. They took a bunch of companies that have a lot of these CLO loan obligations out there, and they compared them together, and they take into account when these are all up, when they’re maturing, because these loans have to be refinanced every five years or so.

Okay. Many of these loans were originated in 2021, at the time when cap rates were low, valuations were high, and interest rates were low, and at this, and are starting to run into maturity issues given the spikes in rates. Now, they say that the distress rate for these clos climbed from 7. 4%, as published in their 2023 summary report, to 10. 2% at the close of the 2024 first quarter, continuing the upward trend that commenced last summer, leading to a 440% increase.

This metric includes any loan reported 30 days delinquent or worse, as well as any loan that is under the special servicers title. Way to put that is you’re in trouble, but we are in trouble as the lender so let’s put you under this new office. We’re going to try and figure something out. But special servicing doesn’t always mean that it ends up rosy and cheery. Okay, breaking down the distress rates by property type.

The office sector leads all categories at 16. 2%. Multifamily and retail round out the top three at 11. 1% and 7. 5%, respectively. Industrial, hotel and self storage are operating below 3%, with self storage at 0%. When examining distress rates by loan payment status, it is interesting to note that 44. 6% of the distressed loans have passed their maturity and have not paid off in breach of their loan terms.

It’s a clear indication that the momentum of the commercial real estate loan modification is likely to continue. Outstanding CRE loans amount to approximately $75 billion in loans. The vast majority of these cre CLo loans are structured with floating rate loans with three year loan terms equipped with extension options. If certain financial hurdles are not met, let’s break that down simply, or what does this all mean? Rates can’t go down.

Now, they can do that head fake. The Fed could do a head fake, but the bond market is not going to allow it, especially as more countries dump our us treasuries. When the government or when any companies need to take out debt, and they do it in the form of selling bonds or issuing bonds, they are having to pay higher rates because they are dealing with all of the flood of sales of bonds around the world.

This is a serious time. Well, how does that affect commercial real estate? Well, it really affects it. And think about it. If you’re a real estate investor, but you’re just into, let’s say, one to four unit, you know, multifamily properties, start thinking about the opportunities in the, in the commercial sector when it comes to residential real estate, because a lot of these properties were purchased by individuals or companies way back when, when these rates were lower terms were better, and now they can’t refinance them and their margins have went to nothing.

Their cash flows are going to nothing if they refi at these new terms. So that’s what should be getting people excited. Look, I just want to bring you this update, because from going to, you know, 2023 numbers to the first quarter of 24, going from 7. 2% to what, 10. 4, I believe that is a massive jump. And that jump is only going to get worse as these rates, even if they just stay where they are, it’s going to get worse.

I believe that rates are going to go even higher. But only time will tell. Hope you got something out of this. If you want the crypto trader pro course again, there’s less than, like, 28 hours left of that deal. Hope you have a great day. The economic ninja is out. .

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