What’s that? War were declared. And the question I want to deal with is will the movement of American forces, they haven’t joined the war yet, and hopefully they will not join the war. You should be very clear. I should be very clear that I’m very against the United States joining any war here. This is not their fight. They can’t afford it, and it would be very bad. And lead us closer to World War III, which we are all trying to avoid. This is our fight, our business. We have to do what we have to do, and America should not be involved in any way.

But as I was saying, will the movement of American forces away from bases around Iran in fear that they might retaliate for whatever it is that America might do? Will this itself lead to a acceleration of the X-State when the Treasury runs out of money? And my conclusion is no, and I crunched the numbers thanks to Grok. I was lazy and I asked artificial intelligence. Corporate tax day has come and gone. There was an influx of cash into the Treasury. It brought it up to a high water market, about $446 billion.

We’re on our way down again, which means we have about between seven and nine weeks before the Treasury runs out of cash and the debt ceiling has to be raised. Whereas for those who believe that the war between Israel and Iran might lead to World War III, two indications that it will not. First of all, the Shekel is at its strongest level since the beginning of 2023, which signals that markets believe that Israel is winning whatever exactly that means. I don’t know, but if they thought that Israel was losing, the Shekel would go down and it isn’t.

And yes, I know the Shekel is fake, but so is the dollar and it will all go away. All currencies will collapse, including the Shekel, because the Shekel is just a dollar derivative. But in the meantime, it’s going up in the current fiat system. You guys take Shekels? I just got back from a trip to Israel. All I got is a fist full of Shekels. We’re going to talk about Japanese bonds. We’re going to talk about Japanese core, core inflation, highest since 1982. And gold is in a correction. It’s been in a correction for the past four, five weeks.

And you should know that since the rally began in late 2023, the majority of the time gold has been in a correction since that time. Even in 1979, gold was in a correction. The majority of that year, the rallies were shorter, comparatively in 1979, of course, was the moonshot of gold to 872 by January 21, 1980, and the near collapse of the entire fiat system. So gold corrections are totally normal, even in hyperinflationary times. But if you look at the pattern, the times for the corrections are getting shorter and the times for the rallies are getting longer as this continues on.

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We know that the debt ceiling has not been raised, so whatever is in the treasury’s account is the last amount of cash it will have. There will be no major infusions as the next major tax day is in September, which is already after the x-state for the treasury to zero at its cash balance is scheduled to arrive, which is sometime in early to mid-August. According to some estimates, some estimates late in July, we’ll see exactly. But we’ll see here, we have $409 billion left. And on the bottom of here, you can see the $409 billion figure here of the treasury’s total cash balance.

This was as of Wednesday, I believe. Yes, June 17th because Thursday was Juneteenth, whatever that is. You can see this is the total amount of taxes that were infused into the treasury on June 17th. It is a total of $18.837 billion. That’s very, very little. So the major influx was on June 16th, which was corporate tax day. That is now over. And we have about $409 billion left to burn through. How long will that take? Well, we can see the next slide. On April 23rd, we had about $606 billion left in the treasury.

Now we had $332.9 billion as of June 11th. And now we have $409 billion. So there was an influx from $333, let’s just say, $333 billion at the bottom there on June 11th to $446 billion high mark on June 16th. So that’s an influx of about $113 billion for corporate tax day, which is around where I thought it was going to be. $100 billion, maybe a little more, which is exactly where it turned out to be. So we have now about seven to nine weeks of cash left at $410 billion. At that point, they’re going to have to raise the debt ceiling.

And then we’re going to see a war between the repo market, the overnight market between banks and the treasury, which will be fighting over the same dollars. And that will lead to, I think, the final QE and the final inflationary round for this fiat system is over. Next topic, will the Iran-Israel war bring the X date for it? Will it cause the treasury to spend more money than it has without this war? Well, I asked Grok, this was just a simple mathematical question. I don’t use AI often, but I didn’t want to do the research on this.

And this was much quicker. How much money I asked, Grok, has the US spent moving its forces in and around the Middle East since the Iran-Israel war broke out? Grok says, based on the scale of assets involved, carriers, historians, jet tankers, and 40,000 troops, the spending could easily be in the range of $100 million to $500 million over the past week. This is a rough estimate. Historical operations like the 2023 surge to the turbine after Hamas attacks cost billions over months, adjusting a similar trajectory if the conflict persists. So we’re talking about an X date of August, which is about seven to nine weeks from now, talking about maybe $500 million a week, maybe a billion dollars a week at seven to nine weeks.

It’s like seven to $9 billion. It’s not going to be that big of a change. So I say probably not significantly. It won’t bring the X date forward unless the US gets directly involved in the war, which I hope and pray they will not because I know that if they do, the hatred of Israel and Jews worldwide will escalate very quickly because nobody wants to be involved in any more Middle East war. If they’re not in the Middle East, so stay out. Let’s talk about Turkey. Continues to hyperinflate. Why am I talking about Turkey? Because there was some speculation there could be a fight between Israel and Turkey.

No, there won’t be. Turkey is not in any shape to do that, nor do they want to. This is a total crazy speculation. I think it was from the Middle East eye. There was some kind of article about it. So I’m just responding and saying, no, it’s not going to happen. We don’t hate each other that much. We don’t really like each other, but I’m not. We, you know, the governments don’t really like each other, but there’s still flights between the two countries and nobody’s in the mood for a big war between Turkey and Israel.

So you can see Turkey’s currency is still hyperinflating on the same hyperinflationary trajectory. The hockey stick turned at around 2020, 2021 over here, and continues to move up in a very Argentinian fashion. Venezuelan fashion. We’re just below 40 per dollar right now, and it will continue this way. Turkish stocks are no shelter protecting from Turkish hyperinflation. We can see the two charts here. The blue is the dollar to lira exchange rate. The higher that is, the lower the lira is. And we can see since 2020, it’s about 476% just rounding it off to 500%, which it will be soon, maybe in a few weeks.

The Turkish stock market is of about 22.8%. So Turks have lost a lot of purchasing power staying in stocks as their currency hyperinflates. The only answer when money is dying, when money derivatives are dying, you go into money itself, which is gold and silver. With gold, they would be not only preserving their purchasing power, but increasing it. Here we can see in contrast to the lira, the shekel is actually strong. It’s at its strongest mark versus the dollar since January 30th, 2023. The war has not really damaged the shekel much at all.

In fact, it has strengthened it. I can only speculate that currency traders, the forex markets believe that Israel is winning the war. I don’t know exactly what that means, meaning the war. I’m not a geopolitical war strategist or anything, but the general feeling in this country is that we’re doing well. And hopefully if the United States does not get involved, we can finish this up in a week or two. By finish up, I mean get rid of the nuclear development program. We have no plans on invading Iran or invading anything, just getting rid of the threat to Japan.

Japanese bond yields still way above trend line. You can see how there’s three trend lines here from 2023, the black trend line, which is the intermediate trend line, the blue trend line, which is the short term trend line, and the red trend line, which is the very short term trend line. I’m sure there’s different words for these. I’m not a technical analyst, but all trend lines are intact very well. You can see that Japanese bond yields are heading higher and the higher these head, the worse the bank of Japan is doing. And when the bank of Japan goes bankrupt, the yen collapses.

The higher bond yields go, the closer the yen is to collapse in real purchasing power terms. You can see that Japan core, core inflation, you can see this practically and empirical evidence here. We were at 3.3%. You can see in that little red rectangle there. This is from tradingeconomics.com, CPI, core, core, whatever that is in Japan increased to 3.3% in May. The last time we were at 3.3% I marked here in this chart from trading economics is March, 1982. So Japan is at the highest inflation rate. It’s not really inflation. They just call it that.

It’s just consumer prices rising since March, 1982. The yen is in serious trouble. This is also obviously excluding the post-COVID era. So let me just qualify that the highest inflation since the pre-COVID era since 1982. Finally, we’re going to talk about the gold run. It’s still in a correction or there is a high that has not been broken at 3,500 yet for about six, seven weeks, it looks like. I don’t know what the rally has been since late 2023. The black boxes below are corrections. The blue boxes are advances. You can see that the black boxes carry the majority of the time since the rally began in 2024.

The blue boxes are the minority of the time. And this is despite this being the strongest gold rally since the 1970s and it will get stronger, but you can see here the black boxes are getting thinner over time as the rally continues and the blue boxes are getting thicker, which means the corrections are getting shorter and the rallies are getting longer. This will continue until the dollar implodes in my view. Even in 1979, more than half the year of the best year in gold prices in history, more than half of that year was corrections.

The blue boxes are advances. The black boxes are corrections. You can see that the black boxes take up the majority of 1979 though as the year went on, the black boxes got thinner and the blue boxes got thicker. This final blue box does not take into account the move in early January, which led from 560 to 872 ultimately. So we see very similar patterns between this year and 1979 corrections, just like we saw in 1979 in advances, just like we saw in 1979. There’s nothing out of ordinary here and the rallies will continue.

The corrections I believe will get shorter and then finally the dollar will die once the next QE round begins and the Fed has to inflate or die. It will choose to inflate and kill its own currency and then they will abdicate and fly to some island somewhere in the Pacific where nobody will lynch them if there’s enough fuel in the plane to get them to escape there. This is Rafi of the Endgame Investor with this week’s silver report brought to you by Kootenai Silver, symbol K-O-O-Y-F in the U.S., symbol KTM in Canada.

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See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.