Summary
➡ The article discusses the potential end of globalization and the beginning of isolationism, with a focus on the impact on markets. It also highlights the demographic shift of the world’s population getting older, affecting productivity. The piece further talks about the fluctuation in gold prices and the influence of the COMEX and Shanghai exchanges on these prices. Lastly, it mentions the possibility of peace negotiations and their potential impact on the market.
➡ Vince has been discussing the current state of the gold and silver markets, which have been eventful despite prices leaning lower. He also mentioned the new forecast demand from the Silver Institute and the debate on whether silver is still money or has become a fully industrial commodity. To keep up with these topics, you can visit gold and silver daily dot sub stack dot com, where they will be hosting a live event where you can ask Vince questions. Remember, this information is for educational purposes and you should consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
Transcript
Hartnett says to buy gold. Don’t get crazy, but that’s what he said, and we’ll read a little bit of that in a sneak peek at his weekend report. He also says to buy treasuries and non-US stocks, so we’ll take that as it comes. In premium, we have a nice, another nice note from RBC. RBC’s commodity comments post-election. They have some things to say about gold, and we’re going to touch on that and share the rest with premium. Let’s start with the markets. The dollar is $106.51 down 35. Ten-year yields are $444. Unchange. S&P 500 is $59.22 down 25.
The VIX is $14.66 up 36. Gold is $25.66 up 2 in the middle of its range. Silver stronger up 15 to $30.58. Copper $4.14 and change up almost $0.08. Wow, it’s extremely volatile copper, right? I mean, it’s making silver look like mellow. WTI down 9 at 68, 68. Sorry, natural gas, 252 down 6. So that’s a break. Bitcoin up 3,000, extremely volatile, like down as low as 86 last night. I think 87 up as high as 92. So think if you see that kind of volatility and you’re trading it. Ethereum 31.16 up 57.
Palladium up 20 at 9.62. And Platinum 9.48 up 9. Gold silver down again, right? Gold and silver lower. Gold silver is lower. Is that bullish? Well, yeah, it could be long term, but short term, it means nothing. It means they’re just covering their shorts and silver because that’s what they do. Grades, soybeans 9.97 up 8, almost 9 cents. Corn 4.16 up a penny and a half and wheat up to it. Looks like it’s soybeans turn to rally. I have no idea. I just like to, again, speculate on grains. Front page. Yesterday, I had a nice conversation with someone who said there’s so much stuff coming out about gold and I can’t believe it.
And, you know, the fire hose comment that was sent to me in the past and, you know, having a hard time keeping up and. Well, my response to him and I’ll share it with you is is there’s always a lot of stuff coming out of that gold. There always has been. We’ve just been lied to for decades. I don’t give you an idea the extent of the brainwashing of getting gold out of the collective mindset. Of investors. Gold is money. Gold is a hedge against dollars. Gold is a hedge against geopolitics, you know.
Gold is everything you need it to be. It’s the imports. There’s an old there’s an old cartoon. It’s a great one. Wall Street likes to come up with these. You know, this is a hedge for that. This everything. Everything Wall Street does is a product. Right. So this is a hedge for Japanese stocks. This is a hedge for American stocks. You know, well, they’re perfect hedges for very narrow risks as if we can define the future. Long Gold is an imperfect hedge for everything. So and they needed to get it out of there because it was stealing market share.
And that’s what they’ve done. So this stuff has always been out there. It just hasn’t been talked about. And now they’re talking about it. So what does that mean for silver? Well, silver is still in the repression mode. You know, silver is not special. So silver is more special than gold. Anyway, that’s my personal bias. Front page. Why did I bring all that up? Because we had some good stuff yesterday. See that story in the middle of their bank. Gold vols indicate sell-off pause. That was the recording that I did with you all yesterday.
If you tune in yesterday, but I changed the title at the last night because I got a piece of information saying also about the moving average. Remember the chart thing that I went through was talking about the moving average. Well, I got a piece of information at the last minute that that said to me the market was bottomed for a day or two. And I changed the title to indicate that and I put it at the bottom. So I didn’t get a chance to discuss it. But it was in the premium section.
I guess what I’m saying is there’s way more. There’s a lot that comes out of this out of this office. All right. The second story on the left there, Michael, every economic strategy in a multipolar world, those of you that are fans of reading Zoltan Pozar’s 5000 word missives. Well, this is a 14000 word missive. And it’s a handbook on future statecraft. And we wrote a 1500 word summary. It’s it’s very well written, referring to his piece. Ours is pretty good, too. But we recommend you read that because it does talk about it does talk.
Actually, he uses the term. What’s the term he uses? Uh, macro economic. Super macro strategy. It’s it’s geo economics. You know, how you’re how the geopolitics is intruding on your macro economics. Right. So so you better make your policy decisions domestically with an eye on what the world is doing to you. It’s no longer like, oh, the world’s okay out there. The world is not okay out there. And the third piece there is metals under truss under truss. Wow. Truss. That’s actually pretty cool. I should patent that. All right. Discussion. Let’s go to the discussion.
Two stories today. Hartnett by gold. That’s my question mark. And the RBC. Let’s start with the Hartnett one. Hartnett’s report came out late last night. And that gets an early copy that gets sent to founders. And we’ll discuss it at length over the weekend, as we always do for premium. But here’s a little, a little, you know, it’s like, well, I can’t believe he said buy gold. We say allocators heading into Q1 2025 should buy treasuries, buy international stocks, buy gold. And the reason for buying gold, I put in parentheses. He says secular inflection point and globalization rising isolationism and coming inflection in demographics.
The world is getting too old for work. These are my words. Plus massive energy needs of AI. Gold and crypto remain the best secular inflation edges. The whole thing is premised on an observation. And that’s a pretty simple observation. We all see this. Stocks are rallying with the dollar. That’s the American exceptionalism story. You know, our currency is better. Our stocks are better. And I touched on that yesterday, how Indian stocks sell off. That’s because we’re the global reserve currency. Stuff that Luke Grohman talks about on your accounting sheet. That’s exactly, you know, that’s exactly what’s going on now.
Anyway, so there’s no, there’s no reversal of that trade to do, you know, unless you want to short the dollar and short stocks. He’s saying if you look at that trade, the opposite of that trade economically is kind of like a stagflation. And he’s saying buy treasuries if you’re worried about U.S. stocks, buy international stocks, because these are allocators. They have to be in stocks. He’s implicitly saying sell U.S. stocks and buy gold, which really caught me by surprise, because, you know, we just went through a sell off and we may have more to go.
And he even includes a chart showing, you know, all the money coming out of gold. So he’s throwing gold down in a contrarian basket because you’re a contrarian guy, right? And he’s saying that, you know, the world could be headed for stagflation. He’s got a couple interesting charts and I just want to share one with you, see if I can make this bigger. Oh, yeah, good. All right. So globalization to isolationism, U.S. duties collected as a percentage of total imports. So from 1891 to 20, you know, 24. And the blue line is duties collected.
So tariffs collected from imports. Right. And you could see that from 1891 to now, it’s been, you know, an obvious decline. And that’s an increase in globalization. And now he’s saying, well, we’re at the beginning of we’re de-globalized. Right. We’re de-globalizing. That started it during Covid. Right. And it hasn’t even kicked in yet. People stop talking about it. It hasn’t even started yet. Right. And so isolationism, which is protectionism, which is the M word mercantilism. That’s right. They’re never going to say that word because it implies gold. They won’t say it until it’s too late.
Really, guys like me, Michael every and and I think Zoltan said it once, but he never said it again. Anyway, look at this chart and you say, OK, look at this smooth holly. Right. We spike that we start to drop Berlin Wall drops, NAFTA drops. All these things are increasing globalization as smooth holly ended. And then 2018, boom, US, China trade war. Now you’re like, what happened to markets when it nothing really happened to our markets, but it was a big deal internationally. And so now here we are with the reversal. He’s saying that chart is around the bottom of globalization ending and isolationism beginning.
So I think it’s actually pretty cool. Now, this is not going to happen tomorrow, but he’s saying, you know, get ready for this. And then the demographic part, the demographic part is, you know, we’re worried about we’re looking at immigrants coming in. Well, he’s saying that if you look at the whole world, the whole world is getting too old to be productive, but too young to die. You know, not his words, mine, but that’s the idea. Anyway, so that’s good. And that was sent to founders in in raw form. And it’ll be gone over this weekend.
So he’s not saying sell gold. Let’s put it that way. RBC commodity comments, the road ahead. RBC, again, it’s been putting out some good stuff, some thoughtful stuff. They talk about post-election on oil, natural gas, gold. You know, they cover all the commodities. But there’s a nice section of gold, a nice little section of gold there. Let me give you an excerpt from it. After hitting an all time high and then falling substantially as the election wiped out uncertainty and the dollar and rates move notably, we’re actually quite comfortable with prices at current levels pulling the quarter to date average in line with our Q4 forecast.
We view this as a cleaner base to gain from. OK, the market has regressed to their level, right? Of a cent, which is kind of like that chart that I showed yesterday. This is not a reason to buy gold. OK, this is not a bought to short term oversold. And maybe it’s OK now. And they elaborate more on the starts a little bit. But the phrase we view this as a cleaner base to gain from. Yeah. Get rid of the tourists. That’s my way of saying get rid of the tourists. So we have that full report at the bottom for premium subscribers.
News and analysis. There’s there’s charts I mentioned. This is what we put out yesterday. Bank goal involves indicate self pause. I just talked about that. Michael, every economic strategy in a multi polar world, I touched on that as well. And comment Fort Knox holds nothing but moths and IOUs. That’s an editorial thing. I kind of threw out the founders. I’ll be sharing that as well this weekend. But it’s a story about something I read that reminded me of a story on the floor of one of the older brokers said there’s nothing in the Fort Knox vaults except IOUs.
Half we say half eaten IOUs and moths. And I laughed because I was like a young derivatives neo Keynesian trader. He’s like, I was like, you know, you’ll find out kids someday. Well, that someday has happened. Anyway, moving on. Market news. If you want to know why stocks sold off yesterday, by the way, let’s look at the stock market again, the markets again. This is all a mild reaction to what Powell said yesterday. So the dollar weakened. Powell basically implied that he might not be cutting. OK, so the market reset a little bit off of that.
The dollar weakened, right? Because money went back into bonds. The S&P 500 got softer. The VIX popped up a little bit. Pop is not the right word. Bounced gold. What did I say yesterday? A hundred a moving average sideways. When I say sideways or puke, something like that. Well, sideways for a day or two. Right. Let’s see what happens next week. Silver 20 cents higher. Right. So basically this is a this is a sign for everyone to say, oh, oh, he might be he might not be cutting. So let’s unwind. It’s an unwind day.
You know, WTI hard to read on that because it’s it’s OPEC is really determining that. And, you know, it’s Bitcoin started. We showed you the trial on that. It’s Bitcoin’s turn. We think Bitcoin is going to do a gold thing. So that’s what that’s what happened yesterday. That’s basically this is all because of what Powell said. The question is, is it a pullback to buy if you’re a stock person or is it beginning of the end? You know, of course, we all want it to be the beginning of the end because we think the market’s a big bubble.
But you can’t sell politics, geopolitics. I haven’t talked about this recently. And for a reason, all the news coming out is consistent with what I’ve said. Peace is coming. We’re all negotiating. Come by our stuff. And I’m not, you know, empty threats. I’m not going to I’m not going to regurgitate that and take up too much time, except to say that I’m watching it now, because it’s when I hear things like yeah, the negotiations aren’t working out so good. That’s what I’ll be like talking about it again. So I think right now, everyone is going.
Everyone is so unconsciously relieved that the U.S. didn’t go into turmoil after Trump won. And everyone’s like, oh, we’ll have peace. Oh, we’ll sell gold. I think this is me channeling Hartnett. Anyway, that on deck, we pretty much had the big stuff this week. Retail sales is today. The RBC post election comments. And before I let you all go on this Friday, let’s take a look at the markets. I have nothing earth shattering to say today or change. All right. There’s the four hour. Let’s get to the daily start with the daily. There we go.
Well, that looks ugly, right? Let’s change that. That’s better. OK, so there’s that hundred day moving average. I took it off the screen, but it came in right here. First time down to it, we bounced. Right. That means there’s more buying than selling, obviously. But what is that? Well, the first time down to the buying first time down to a moving average like that, that’s short covering people that were short covered at the hundred day moving average because it makes sense. Second time down, if it’s bought, it’ll be bought by some short covering and some people who want to add to long.
Don’t bet on that right now. OK, third time down, if it does hold a second time, third time down is the charm. There are no triple tops. There are no triple bottoms. Yeah, there are. But that’s we’ll discuss that. The triple bottom will be made. And then the fourth bottom won’t hold. So I’m just saying, if you want to buy the dip, if it goes down here again, that’s fine. But don’t expect to make money the next day. OK, that’s the gold comment. Silver. Silver, something a little bit more interesting that you’re probably not going to hear anywhere else.
A couple of days ago, the COMEX lowered margin requirements by eight percent rather quickly on silver. But I don’t think they did it on gold. So we know what that means. It’s less bearish. It’s bullish. But I’m going to give you a perspective. This is a sign that China is taking pricing power from the US. Here’s what I mean. People talk about, oh, the COMEX is going to end. The COMEX is going to die. No, don’t expect that. I mean, maybe it could happen, but it’s not going to. Right. But the COMEX wants to do is survive.
Right. And there’s a competitor over in China now in Shanghai. And that competitor saying your price sucks. Our price is better. It’s higher. And so the COMEX raises margins as it goes up, which is not unheard of. Right. But the Shanghai exchange doesn’t. Right. Shanghai futures. They don’t. So you can make the case. You can make it. Well, Shanghai exchange wants to go higher. They’re manipulating because they’re not raising margins. And the New York exchange is manipulating it lower because they are raising margins. Right. Let’s say you make those cases. It’s who moves first.
It’s who blinks first. That loses. So the market makes a high and the COMEX raise the margins, tapping it and the market drops and the COMEX lowers margins. See, they’re lowering their margins, my opinion, early. But it’s the kind of thing I need a more data points. I’m not going to say I’m right. But when you start lowering margins as your market drops, even though even though it hasn’t dropped enough for them to usually do that, that’s a reflection of you’re getting worried about the price discrepancy between Shanghai and the U.S.
Right. If Shanghai is trading 10 percent over on the highs and then let’s call it 5 percent, 5 percent over on the highs and then silver drops and it’s trading 10 percent over. That’s because silver margins are too high here or too low there. Right. Well, who moved first? COMEX lowered his margins because the premium over here is too big. The prices are beginning to converge higher. The COMEX wants to stay in business. So they have to look at Shanghai and say, shit, their price is 7 percent higher. We have to get our price higher.
It’s like looking at your competition and saying they have the better price. We have to go with their price. Right. That’s it. That’s that’s the that’s the you know, out there, you know, ridiculously huge picture that may not be right concept for you guys to look at. And so Shanghai has set the margin for COMEX today, my opinion to really tell. Anyway, I’m Vince. Everyone have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and medals with Vince. I sure do hope that you enjoyed the show and thanks for being here with us this week as we’ve covered all the things going on in the gold and silver markets, certainly in eventful time, even if price is going a little bit more towards the lower side.
But fortunately, to catch up on all the things that happened, we do have arcade economics, gold and silver daily sub stack where this week we looked at the new forecast demand from the silver Institute, some of the implications of the new doge board and also taking a look at whether silver is still money or if it has become a fully industrial commodity, something that I know is often on a lot of people’s minds. So you can find all of that at gold and silver daily dot sub stack dot com. I might add that we will be having our first live event inside of the sub stack program.
Again, if you go to gold and silver daily dot sub stack dot com, you can sign up and find out more. We’ll probably be our beloved Vince Lancy and you’ll have a chance to ask him a question. So golden silver daily dot sub stack dot com so that you can have a great recap of what’s happened to catch up on over the weekend. And with that said, thanks as always for being here this week and we will see you again next week. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.
Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].
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