Or analysis of what we think is going to happen with gold under Trump. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. Today’s Market Rundown. It’s Monday. Semi-holiday. Today’s BOA’s latest on gold post-election RBC from a more big picture point of view and BOA from a more CTA point of view. Both are relevant. But first, let’s start with the markets. There’s a gold chart for you there.

Dollars up 51 at 105.46. Ten-year yields are 429. Down one, the actual bond market is closed today. So if you’re looking closely at that, don’t. Yes, it’d be 560.20. Up 23. The VIX is 15.30. Up 37. Gold is 26.59. And change, down 24. Silver, considerably stronger. Was actually up on the evening for a while there. 31.24 down five cents. I know that’s no consolation right now. Copper is 427. Down two and a half cents. WTI down a buck 34.69.43. Natural gas 261. Going its own way. Wow. Up 20 cents. Up eight and a half percent. I’ll have to look into that.

Okay. Bitcoin. Up 1700. 82,197. Hit 80,000 member trades over the weekend. Hit 80,000 over the weekend. It has kept running. I believe this is part of the reallocation. Post-Trump, et cetera, et cetera. Ethereum, 31.80 also rallying. Pretty strong over the weekend, but nowhere right now. Palladium down three and a half at 9.87 and Platinum 9.74. Up three. Gold-silver ratio down on a down market. So you could see gold-silver correct as people take their money out of gold. If everyone’s taking their money out of gold and some people are covering their shorts and silver as it drops, well, you’re going to have what we have today.

Grains are. Weeks down 11, 2 percent, 577. This whole Russia Ukraine thing probably is really plain havoc with that. Soybean up four cents and corn unchanged offered. Okay. What is this chart? Well, we’re going to get into that in a second. I want to go through the actual stuff. And what is this chart? We’ll get into that in a second as well. Let’s go through some of the stories. RBC, BOA on gold and other commodities. There’s the front page over the weekend. We put out these stories. We direct your attention to the op-ed piece or analysis of what we think is going to happen with gold under Trump.

The title says it all. All right. So for the discussion, BOA put out their systematic flows analysis, which basically covers CTAs and CTAs, if you’re not familiar with them in terms of their protocol. They’re basically high net worth individuals who have their money with advisors who trade using algorithms for the most part. So this is what BOA says about CTAs. In commodities, our model stopped out of its stretched long position after futures declined by 2.7 following the election. Christ’s trend remains elevated and some CTAs may not have fully sold out of their longs.

It’s very revealing. The small money, the hot hedge fund money, the CTA money, the retail money sold post-election, which is what we thought would happen. And you may remember last week I sent out a report for an institutional report from Goldman. Their comment about being CTAs are selling, but we don’t see macro discretionary selling yet. So this confirms that two banks are seeing CTA selling, which means the tourists are getting out and the macro discretionary guys have not sold as of yet. Could be good, could be bad, but just know that the first leg of sellers has hit the market.

And that little green down there, that’s saying, if I can make this bigger, that doesn’t get any bigger. That means that if the market rallies, they’re going to buy again, they’re done selling. Now, silver, they may get short. And I’m talking to you as a silver person, I want them to get short because a couple months from now, that’ll bring silver to $40 without a problem. We have that full analysis and it covers every market. Moving on to the next one, RBC has been surprising lately. And that’s one because I haven’t seen a lot of other stuff recently, but very thoughtful pieces coming out on precious metals recently.

Commodity survey, precious to me. While directionally many of the undercurrents continued month over month in October, the positives, precious metals were up nearly 18 billion in money coming in, far outweigh the negatives. All other assets on that basis amount of two minus 10.9 billion, pushing total commodity investor assets under management tracked in this piece to nearly 590 billion. Unsurprisingly, the positive tailwind is really about gold given its run of records. Even with the post-election reset, our conviction remains for 2025. Now they get into their, it’s a lot of very easy on the eyes charts to read, showing you that basically as the East has stopped buying, the West has bought.

And that trend seems to be in place despite the post-election behavior. And there’s another report they have, as I said, they’re very thoughtful recently. RBC’s election quick take, there’s a link to that. We kept them there. We put back in there for you guys. Let’s see if this chart shows up any bigger. No, it doesn’t. All right. Production is not my first name, but look, everybody’s out of commodities except for gold. They’re into commodities. So if you’re a contrarian, you’d be like, oh, maybe I’ll buy some oil and sell some gold. You know, I think you’re starting to see that.

People are selling some gold and buying some Bitcoin. It’s, you know, it’s the hot thing, right? That’s how CTAs are working now. They’re probably buying Bitcoin futures. Who the hell knows what to do? But that’s how they do it. All right. News and analysis over the weekend. Special trouble monetized gold’s value. We mentioned that already. Steny Druckenmiller interview, that’s open to all. He has been speaking twice, I think, in the last two months and they’re very good. It’s very good to hear same person talk. Founders’ weekend reading. Very special piece there.

HeartNet, Trump 2.0 trade breakdown. Short piece, very tactical. And Sunday CFTC discussion, which we put out almost every week describing the commitment of traders reports with other analysis. Summary of that is the bullion banks are still absent without leave. And the market is functioning normally, but it’s more volatile because there’s nobody stomping it. Sorry, I don’t mean manipulate it. Just nobody who’s more aggressive on the inside of the market. So you’ve got the producers selling it when it goes a lot higher and you’ve got the macro discretionary buying it when it goes a lot lower.

But in the middle, the bullion banks are just sitting on their hands because I think they’re hurting. I think they’re hurting. What do I know? Market news. Some interesting stuff here. I wanted to go through it, but I don’t know that I have enough time. Let’s talk about AI for a second here. All right. The real news about AI now, the current news is AI has run into a wall. Now mainstream media is going to talk about the wall that’s being run into or whatever they’re going to talk about. But in terms of its improvement, it was improvements were flattening out.

They were basically just throwing GPUs, throwing power at it, and it was rampant. And so it’s kind of flattening out. And chat GPT or open AI, I’m not sure how you look at it. They have realized or they’ve figured out or they’re trying this. They’re working on reasoning. So reasoning, I’m not really qualified to talk about what it is versus not reasoning. But from my use of it, it seems to me like it integrates more. So you tell to do one thing and then you’ll do something else. I forgot what it did, the first thing.

Now it’s putting things together and it’s trying to connect the dots and it takes a little bit longer, but you have a more thorough answer. So they’re ramping up again because of this reasoning concept. Virtual currencies intended their rally on Sunday. Who cares about that? Apple may never find another product with as much revenue potential as the iPhone. This is the news trying to keep you from selling Apple. It’s not your father’s Apple. It’s a different kind of Apple now. US has reportedly ordered TSMC to halt shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers.

I have a relationship with someone who is a key supplier to ASML and TSMC as a result of that. And I had dinner with him last week and he said, they sold them one. You only have to sell them one. Basically, China will reverse engineer. That’s what he said. And he’s not cynical about it. He says, they have kill switches in the machines, so they can hit a button and it can stop working. The question is, will they hit the button? No. Anyway, so it’s already gone. You can’t keep China down. You can only slow them down.

Most companies are trying to figure out how artificial intelligence may change the way they do business. Chegg is trying to avoid becoming its first major victim. All right, so the only education company was for many years to go to source for students who wanted to help with their homework or a potential tool for plagiarism. OK, Chegg was one of those companies. There’s two companies like Chegg and Course Hero. I found that in the beginning of my professorship, they would go to these sites and I’m old, right? They go to these sites and they pay because apparently other students would upload the tests that they had gotten previously with the professor and they would then have the answers in them as well.

And some of the answers were right. Most of the answers were right, some were wrong. And I couldn’t believe it. Like I was just, I was like, you don’t have to do the work anymore. You don’t even have to study. You’re studying like for a little bit of money. And so I subscribed and it was fascinating. But footnote for my class, because I was new, there were no tests. So I seeded it with tests with bad answers for fun. Anyway, I caught a couple of them. There you go. Moving on. CPI, PPI, data on debt this week, CPI, PPI.

Tuesday, and just give me a little run there, Tuesday, NFIB optimism. That’s small businessman’s optimism. So small businesses are important when you’re looking at an economy that’s potentially cratering. So you’re looking at, is unemployment going to get worse? NFIB would be the leading indicator. CPI is on Wednesday, PPI is on Thursday, and retail sales minus autos with autos with manufacturing is on Friday. And there’s BOLCTE is RBC and gold pole selection. We would recommend you take a look at that. And let’s take a look at the charts themselves. Let’s start with gold.

All right, so here’s, here’s the bad medicine. See this year here, let me go to the monthly first. That’s me replicating a Michael Oliver channel. Right? And it’s very big picture. But it’s big picture stuff is very useful when you’re trying to, when you’re trying to find your way off of a script. Now, this is a line that I had driven before, drawn before. Because oh, I forget why now. But if I draw and I leave it there, it’s probably important. Looks like this is obviously a little, a little bull flag, but I probably drew it because the BIS capped it.

This is a weekly. Anyway, the market’s coming off. Do not be surprised if it goes to 2531. Don’t be surprised. It’s okay. It’s going to happen. We were above, right? This is the channel. Like, you know, this is the channel going to infinity. We’re going to infinity, just not this week. All right, so that’s a monthly channel, right? So do not be surprised. Silver. So it’s pretty simple, right? If it goes up, great. But it goes to 2531. Don’t be surprised. Am I short? No. Was I short for a couple of days? Yeah.

Will I get short again? Yeah, but not right now. This is crazy. I’m just watching it. It’s too euphoric for everyone. All right. Silver. Here’s a similar channel in silver. Okay, but silver is more volatile, right? Also silver is being, you know, ringed and twisted with the whole gold, silver spread and sell the silver to buy the gold stuff, which I believe and I know is happening. Okay. So what I’ve done here is I tried to give you a picture of volatility. The, let’s focus on the yellow one, right? The yellow channel with the yellow dotted line in the middle.

Silver is inside the yellow channel on its trend higher 60% of the time, right? Okay. So if you’re having a conversation with someone at a cocktail party, we’re silver. Well, it’s going to go this way, give or take, right? It’s going to be in this channel, give or take, right? So 60% of the time that’s where silver is going to be, right? Now, if you were to say, well, I want to know where it is almost all the time. That’s 80% of the time or 90% of the time. And you say, well, you know, it’s not going to go much higher than this red line.

It’s not going to go much lower than that red line. And there’s silver. Now silver is more volatile than gold. So for silver, my first level was don’t be surprised if it gets to 3150 again, and it’s pretty much there now. So, but because it’s more volatile, I have to like, make these dotted lines, I have to make them wider, right? So don’t be surprised if silver goes to 2950. Looks like it’s $30 basically, don’t be surprised if silver gets to 30 and goes higher. Okay, be a little concerned if it gets down here.

But if you have some money in your pocket, that’s a really, really good place to buy because when it gets down here, it doesn’t stay down here long. And I believe if it were to go sideways and go lower and break the shell line, I think if it gets down here, that’s when you’re going to start seeing the EFP start to switch, you’re going to start seeing the CTA get short, I want the CTs to get short, and then you’re going to start seeing this market decouple from gold again, and start to get bit.

Anyway, that’s my take on it. Gold will be coupled with the dollar again, because the West is the buyer, when the West buys, they look to the dollar to decide if they’re going to pull the trigger or not in gold. Same thing for everything else. Bitcoin, you guys know that I like that. I have a piece coming out of it later on today. And oil, I want to like it, but I just can’t get out of its own way. Have a great day. I’m Vince. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lance.

We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching
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