➡ This text talks about a discussion on materials and miners, and mentions various charts including an asset quilt. The speaker thanks Vince and Lancy, and reminds viewers that the video is for information only, not financial advice. They should consult their financial advisor before making decisions. The speaker ends by thanking the viewers and promising to see them again tomorrow.

If the Fed’s going to cut, then the likelihood of big cap companies underperforming relative to cyclicals, industrials, goes up. And that means miners, which is what we’ve felt in our little neck of the woods. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, afternoon, evening, or whenever this may find you. This is the Hartnett Blow Show Walkthrough. And I’m Vince Lancey. Hartnett’s Weekly Report has presented two ways of video walkthrough with commentary.

And Hartnett’s main points are broken up below. New subscribers are encouraged to listen. For a translation of Michael’s particular brand of lingo, and the gold fix new odds take of his analysis. Normally I say it’s Exxon analysis. This week it is not Exxon. Not because it’s bad, it’s just absence. I can’t tell if this is a holiday report or a redacted version was sent out. Hard to tell. But I think it’s a holiday report. The title is the flow show, my herd is my bond. Have no delusions. There’s very little to talk about here. And I’m not going to try and make more of it than what it is.

A little PSA, the founder’s discussion today will be at 2 p.m. And we’ll do a CFTC run-through. I also want to do a live Q&A on the Goldman Ultimate Gold Primer report. There’s part one in the lower right-hand side and part two in the top left-hand side. The lower right-hand side, which was the market structure, we had almost no commentary in that report. Because it was very much like a nice little textbook. The top left-hand side, part two, we have some commentary in that and some things to say that might add a little color to what you’re looking at.

So we’ll read that commentary and we’ll field questions by anyone in the founder’s group that has them. And then we’ll share that with premium afterwards. Who knows, maybe some good topics for future conversations will come up. All right, so let’s go. This is the Hartnett report this week. So hopefully he’s on holidays. So you’re looking at a big dead spot there. Okay, the flow show my herd is my bond. Scores on the door is gold 26.3%, Bitcoin 20%, stocks 13.9%, investment grade bonds 8.2%, high-yield bonds 8.0%, government bonds 6.3%, cash 2.7%, commodities 2.6%, US dollar minus 9.1%.

Oil minus 11.4% all year to date. The biggest picture record $97 billion inflow to global bond funds in the past four weeks. Year-to-date bonds annualizing a record $700 billion inflow led by inflows to investment grade bonds. Sharks 2 and 3. Shark 2 2025 is on track for a record year of inflows to global bond funds. Truck 3 record $57 billion inflow to investment grade bonds in the past four weeks. So as external so goes internal is my take or observation. Meaning global bonds are being bought and in the US investment grade bonds are being bought. So in the US we’re rotating from government bonds to investment grade bonds, more or less, or maybe from stocks to investment grade bonds.

Who knows? But bonds are being bought right now and they have it for quite a while. The other expression to keep in mind is there’s an expression called down and out. It’s a nice little axiom to describe equity flows as well. So if people are going to take their money out of US big cap stocks, what are they going to put them in? Well, they’re going to go down into smaller cap and they’re going to go out into other countries. So down and out is reflected in bonds as well as in stocks. Coming soon, August 11th, Nvidia, 29th PCE, September 5th payrolls.

The 10th is PPI. The 11th is CPI. And the 17th is the FOMC. Interesting. CPI is after PPI this year, this week, this month, I should say. And there’s also one other thing that not mentioned there. I’m not sure when it comes out, but there’ll be revisions to the payrolls probably out September 5th as well. So you may or may not recall last September 18th when the Fed cut 50 basis points unwarranted. If you’re looking at it politically, then is definitely probably warranted. The revisions and payrolls were lower at that time as well, I think, I’m pretty sure.

And now that will probably be something that’s expected to happen again. So barring a big upside surprise in payrolls, this is my opinion, you’re going to see the Fed cut at least 25 basis points. Maybe 50 if it’s another really weak revision. I also think what it’s worth based on some things that I’ve read and what we I think what we all feel is that the Fed is less interested in inflation and more interested in unemployment. It’s not to say that I’m interested in inflation at all. It is to say that inflation is no longer the most important part of the mandate.

And now they’re basically throwing in the towel and two percent inflation from multiple angles. He said a couple of things rebalancing of the mandates. I forget the actual quote was I have it somewhere. That was the first thing. The second thing is they abandoned the F.A.I.T., which was a policy measure used starting in 2020, which Powell also blamed in part for his reticence to raise rates. So, of course, you always blame the textbook when you’re wrong and you always take credit when you’re right, such as the way of bureaucracy. Anyway, so that’s that. So here we go.

And video stocks next week. So video earnings, right? So flows and flows to bonds 23.0 billion stocks, 3.0 billion cash, 1.3 billion gold, 0.1 billion outflows from crypto, 0.7 billion flows to know that’s a great bond inflow past four weeks. Biggest since July of 2020, 57.4 billion. Europe equity outflow, biggest in four months, 2.3 billion. German equity outflow, biggest in three months. 18th week of UK equity outflows. Okay, so if you’re looking at this internally, look at this as in Europe, people are selling stocks and buying bonds. It may mean nothing. In Germany, people are selling stocks and buying bonds.

In the UK, they’re selling stocks and, I don’t know, probably buying gold at this point. And in the US, same idea. July 2020, that’s when the Fed probably really started kicking in with their with their saving the market. I guess bonds should be bought if you think we’re going to cut. That’s the first thing to buy. And there’s the FICC inflows. That’s the institutional money. They sold gold and silver. They bought emerging market debt. They bought bank loans. I don’t really care about tips. They put that there, but it’s hard to have to really measure it at a small level.

On the other hand, Bank of America, private clients, 4.1 trillion assets under manager, 64.1% stocks, 18.1% bonds, 10.7% of cash. So this money, if you’re looking at the Fed cutting, this money goes into stocks. The question is, will it chase it higher or will it be buying a falling knife? Nobody knows. GWIM buying industrials. That’s consistent with something we just sent out, the founders. High yield bank loan, ETFs, past four weeks, selling energy, healthcare, that’s also consistent. If you think it’s going to be the very, very short version of something we just noticed. If the Fed’s going to cut, then the likelihood of big cap companies underperforming relative to cyclicals, industrials, goes up.

And that means miners, which is what we’ve felt in our little neck of the woods, selling energy. It’s kind of crazy, but Bank of America’s private clients are selling energy stocks and buying mining stocks. So this could be a very crowded trade, meaning it could go on for a year of buying metals and selling energy. I’m just saying, if you’re buying energy, if you’re contrarian and you want to buy energy now, just know that there’s pressures of rotation. It’s kind of like in the CTA reports, when everyone says, let’s buy energy and sell metals. Now they’re selling energy and buying metals, but they’re doing it at the stock level.

Bone bear indicator dips to 6.0 from 6.1 on DM equity outflows, bad global equity breadth, and bearish hedge fund positions offset by low FMS cash levels. So essentially that changed. Asset cash flows table one, equity 3.0 billion inflow, 10.7 billion inflow to ETFs, 7.3 billion outflow from mutual funds. Hot money in, stable money out. You can read that as bearish. You should read that as bearish, but it doesn’t mean much. Bonds inflows past 17 weeks, precious metals inflows past two weeks, 0.1 billion. I’m just looking at commodities. Equity flows, I threw that in there today. U.S.

outflows resume, outflows past six weeks, outflows and inflows resume, emerging markets. You look at that and you say that’s bullish for gold. This says this should be accompanied with this emerging markets up and U.S. outflows out. That’s consistent with a weaker dollar and strong gold. By style, inflows into large U.S. cap, 0.8 billion outflows of U.S. value. This is what’s been going on for years, U.S. growth, small cap. I don’t know how to read that, but by sector, I’m interested in materials here, inflows, tech, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. You can see that materials, that’s basically, miners is in that category, I believe.

Although this is a snapshot, it’s more helpful if you had a chart showing continuity, but they give us enough as it is. Here’s the main discussion. There is no main discussion. Here’s the asset quilt, there’s the rest of the charts, and we throw in the asset winners and losers for you. That’s it, founders. I’ll see you at two o’clock. Enjoy the rest of your day. Thanks, Vince, Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show, and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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