➡ Vince Lancey discusses the relationship between gold, the U.S. dollar, and emerging markets. He explains that when gold’s value increases, the dollar’s value decreases, and emerging markets perform well. He also mentions that gold is currently following a trend similar to past election cycles, and he predicts that the market will stabilize at the 100-day moving average.
➡ The speaker discusses the trends in gold prices, suggesting that they may either stabilize or drop significantly. They note that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term momentum of gold remains strong. The speaker also discusses the impact of presidential terms on gold prices, arguing that it’s not the president but deficits that matter in the long run. Lastly, they mention Fortuna Mining’s successful third quarter and their plans for reducing costs in the future.

Gold is money, and gold is a nation, right? If another economy is doing well, that’s money out of dollars. Well, gold is a competing country. Gold is an emerging market. I was taught by a mentor. So if gold is going up, then the dollar is going down, and emerging markets are doing well, we can’t have that in the U.S., can’t we? Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince.

Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and a little bit of a head cold, so bear with me, please, if I sniffle more than usual. We have some things to talk about, right? Live by the sword, die by the sword, I think is the expression that I used this morning. American exceptionalism on display. All right, we’re going to go through gold, where we are, what it means in the short term, what it means in the long term, and it’s going to be a lot of charts to give you an idea of how to comprehend if you’re worried at all.

You shouldn’t be, but if you’re worried at all, give you an idea of what we’re doing here. All right, let’s start with the markets. The dollar is up 26 again, 106.74. That’s American exceptionalism. U.S. 10-year yields are unchanged, or 44. The S&P 500 is $59.92. Up one, the VIX is $14.14. Up 13, almost down like 40% in the last two weeks. Gold, $25.53, down 19. Silver, $29.89, down 39. Copper, $401, down $0.04. WTI up $80, that’s $69.08. Natural gas, $270, unchanged, under original breakout, I think. Bitcoin, $91,357. Up $680, or is it $880? $880.

Ethereum, $3,183. Ethereum is the silver in crypto. We’re going to sell Ethereum so we can buy our Bitcoin. Same idea. We do it all the time. Palladium, down $5,928. Platinum, $933. Oh, it’s flipped. Up $4. But that’s not a reason to be long platinum. It’s short Palladium. It’s just a reason to be short Palladium right now, because platinum is the stable metal. Palladium is the lunatic, right? All right. Grades, nothing crazy. Soy is up a little bit, corn is up a tiny bit, and wheat is down 3 cents. There’s the gold chart.

One of the charts we’ll be looking at today. Now let’s take a look at our front page. American Exceptionalism on display. I recorded a conversation with Peruvian Bull. That should be up in a day, maybe today, I’m not sure. And I had a nice conversation, nice little conversation with Andy Scheckman yesterday. I’m not sure when that’ll be up, but I’ll let you know when that happens. But this is not about me. This is about what we’re talking about here. So discussion, live by the scimitar, die by the scimitar. Could use other names depending on what country you’re picking, but I’m talking about Eastern buying.

And we have a Michael Avery geopolitical analysis, a very good in depth. It’s almost a handbook that we’re going to, we’re writing this up now. We’ll put it out today. It’s not going to go out with this video. All right. Who page? Tom Vlongo, very popular person, friend of mine. I would consider him a friend of mine, even though he has bad taste in music. I’m kidding. His taste in music is fine. Mine isn’t mature. Metals under Musk. We talked about that or Trump Musk, president Musk, et cetera, et cetera. All right.

Here we go. A discussion, American exceptionalism, memes, bricks. These are topics that we’re going to touch on with these charts. Taurus may be inflationary for US people, but it is deflationary for emerging markets, fear, Trump 2.0, macro discretionary boys and CTA tourists. Okay. I have some typos, take care of their oversold today. Overbought last month and do presidents matter? All right. The chart we start with first is from the market here. I wish that was a little bigger, not this bad since COVID. Now, what are we looking at there? We’re looking at a chart that’s return on capital and that little green circle I have down there at the bottom.

That is how much gold has come off as a return on capital. And it hasn’t been this low since COVID. So what happened after COVID? Now I’m predicting to saying things don’t stay at the extreme forever. Next, fear of the unknown is unwinding. Gold is a hedge against the unknown. The VIX is the line set aside against gold there. All risk off and hedging assets are sliding as American money leaves. That’s the VIX, which has gone from 23 down to 14. That’s 40%. Is gold down 40%? No. My point is people that were worried about the American election are selling everything that was a hedge for it.

And the VIX, the bond volatility, gold, that’s going to happen. This has to happen. We’ve discussed this many times. All right. Oh, I didn’t mean to be there. I mean to be here. Gold is an emerging market. It competes with the US dollar for money. As India and China go, so goes gold in the short term. Talking about two concepts in this graph, the first one is this. The reason gold goes, we say that the gold goes up because it’s denominated in dollars. Yeah, that’s right. Gold goes down because it’s denominated in dollars. Yeah.

But this is the global reserve currency, folks. The global reserve currency is what things are denominated in. So if the dollar is strong, then another country’s currency is weak. And if the country’s currency is weak, then their need to borrow in dollars to finance their economy goes up and their stock market goes down. So if you are an emerging market like India, which is shown here, you will track gold because you have a lot of gold in your economy, sure, but also because, well, you need dollars. So that’s the first thing.

If you’re an emerging market participant, if you’re an India and you’re on the cusp, you’re selling your stocks now. And you’re also, you’re not selling gold, but you’re not buying anymore. You’re like, okay, we don’t have a lot of money this month. We’re going to have to wait till next month. So it’s the marginal buyer that’s going to back off. Now, have they backed off today? No, but the market is anticipating them to back off. Second thing is, and this is more to my heart, when you look at emerging market currencies, as I do, it’s this country, that country, that country, throw gold in there.

Gold is a competing country to the US. Gold is a currency. Gold is money, and gold is a nation, right? If another economy is doing well, that’s money out of dollars. Well, gold is a competing country. Gold is an emerging market. I was taught by a mentor. So if gold is going up, then the dollar is going down, and emerging markets are doing well, we can’t have that in the US, can we? And so something happens like this, and you see things go. So if India and China go, so goes gold in the short term.

Okay, that’s it. Gold is an emerging market. Another reason gold is weaker. Here’s an analog from Refinitiv. Well, I put the buttons on there, same shit, different election. This is a chart of Trump in gray 10 days before the day of the election, and then up to 30 days after. And this is the chart updated to the 2024 election. Same shit, different election, folks. So there’s a pattern here. This is not unknown territory. This has happened before. It’s all happened before. All right, so let’s give you an idea of the analog, right? People get in before the election, they get out, and I’ll show you later on.

And what happened to gold under Trump? Well, it did okay. Yeah, it did very okay. It did as good as it did under Biden. I’ll show you that in a second. Much needed return to trend is in play. Okay, so now the market’s dropping, where will it stop, right? Nobody knows this answer. They’re lying to you if they do. But I’ll give you an answer where it should stop or pause, right? And that is the 100-day moving average that we hit. Now, when you hit a 100-day moving average and you’re a big boy like a macro D guy, you’re going like this.

100-day moving average alarm goes off. You say, should I buy more or should I sell? Now, at this point in the cycle, and I say this cycle because after the election, at this point in the cycle, some of them are going to buy. Some of them are going to sell. So the market should stabilize here for a day. I would love it to stabilize here for a month. It can do that. This is what was happening here. Okay, it was stabilizing at the 50-day moving average back here. I would love it to stabilize here for a month.

Everyone gets killed that’s low in options, right? Everyone sells that’s long, the speculators are out, and the market doesn’t drop. And that’s because there’s no organic selling. Still, there’s no producer selling. Maybe there will be. I don’t know. So my prognosis is either a pause or a puke is coming. Okay. Now, the reason I say okay, I could go up or I could go down, right? No, no. Sideways or a puke. A puke is it drops hard and then at some point it finds a buyer and it stops. That’s your puke.

The rest of the American sellers have to sell. Still above the upper band of the big picture trend. Okay, so big picture. I just gave you a relatively small picture. Here’s the big picture. The yellow lines there, that’s an approximation of something that Michael Oliver drew last month. And that’s the trend for gold going back to 2018, actually. But let’s start with 2021, right? And we’re still above it. Look at that. We’re magically back to those lines that I drew there. I don’t even know why I drew that line anymore. Oh, that was with the BIS cap at one time.

And here we are back to my line. And my line is intersecting with his line in this area. And, you know, lo and behold, we’re still above this long-term trend. So as much as I want to be saying the momentum is only higher now because we’re above this trend, part of me says, yeah, well, we’re going to back-test that, you know? And the other part of me says, well, we’re above trend, and I’m not going to be surprised if we go back into it, at least for a time being. And I would wait for—let’s assume that I’m a client of Michael Oliver’s, which I am.

We’re mutual. Let’s put it that way. I would look for something—I don’t know what he’s going to write. Okay, I’m not predicting anything. But I would look for something coming out. I’m saying long-term momentum is intact. Short-term momentum has taken a pause. I’ll let you know when it kicks up again. And that’s it. So what am I doing with this chart? And RSI is already oversold. Okay, so look at the RSI. Look at that steep drop, the yellow line at the bottom. Can it keep going? Yes, it can keep going. But this is—you kind of want this.

You kind of want this to just get it over with. Rip the band-aid off. Get the bad blood out of your system, whatever you want to call it. But we’re still above the upper band of the big picture trend. I will be perfectly happy with us going back down to $2,300. I would. You may not be, but I would, because, well, you’ll see in the end why I don’t give a shit about price today. There is—oh, boy. Did I chop off my words? Hold on. Yeah, I chopped off my words. All right.

There is no difference. A little closer look between Trump 1 and Trump 2, right? There is no difference between election week in 2016 and election week in 2024. The top is 2016—I’m sorry, 2024. The bottom is 2016. The two vertical lines, the line on the left is nine days before the election, where I identified the trend to sync up even more, and the other vertical line is the day of the election. Okay? So we sync up. We get that last puff of buying—oh, my God, the end of the world could come, and they buy gold, right? And they buy VIX, and they buy all this other stuff.

And then the election comes, and then the downward slope starts. It’s all been foretold. Okay? The only difference is this year, both of you are familiar. I’m showing you a line chart. If you were showing a candle chart on 2016, the market rallied almost $100, and then went back to unchanged. So in the day, it was unchanged, but it had a $100 higher range. And that’s because they weren’t ready for it. They’re like, oh, we didn’t think they were ready for it. Market was capped. Everything was cool. Obviously, I’m a conspiracy theorist. I do believe in that, and I’m right.

So we know they don’t like headlines, but they don’t care about price anymore, as long as stocks rally typos. Do presidents matter in the long run? Did you know that until August of this year, gold had gone up more under Trump one than under Biden? And it wasn’t until approximately August of this year that gold under Biden started to rip higher. Now it’s because the election coming up to be electing Trump 2.0. Okay? So do presidents matter in the long run? No, deficits matter in the long run. So on the left-hand side, you have Biden, and under his regime, we’ll call approximately 68% as of today.

Gold over four years was up 68% during Biden’s reign. Trump 1.0, gold closed at approximately up 61%. Not bad. Not a big deal. Doesn’t matter who the president is. And frankly, gold will be higher under a guy who decorates his hope and gilded gold, right? A guy who’s anti, anti-Wall Street. I mean, I know he’s going to hire Wall Street people, but you have to understand Trump is a corporatist. I keep talking about this. I’ll spell it out in a podcast, but Trump is a corporatist. Corporatists don’t like financial people. They deal with them.

Corporatists default to banks. Corporatists say, screw it. I’m defaulting. Try and take the asset back, right? He’s done that several times. Corporatists say, how can I get the middleman out? That’s the banker. And how do you do that? Well, gold standard removes the Fed. Bitcoin removes the banks. This is his culture, right? He’s not anti-vault. He’s anti-bank. He’s pro-gold or Bitcoin, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, yada, et cetera. But that’s the whole deal. That’s what’s going on, right? So I’m betting. I’m betting. I’m not betting on how many things on.

I’m betting that the market is going to pause or puke. So I’m either going to be, let’s say, let’s say I had three contracts to buy. I’d buy one here and I’d let the other two go. Maybe it’ll just drop and I’ll buy two more. But if it continues to rally, the rallies won’t be answered. At least I bought one. All right. News analysis, founders, quick takes. Interesting, because there’s a nice really, there’s a really nice chart in there about which country really gets affected by tariffs the most. And it’s fascinating because you can see who the ones that are going to be forgiven and who the ones that won’t be forgiven, like who they’ll get car bouts.

And then you see China’s like 60%. Republicans keep the house. We branches. That’s a zero head story. Good coverage of how that went down. Some of the long though talking shit about markets and gold open interest is very important. Now that was yesterday. Today’s news. You can take a look at that. And data index, CPI, PPI. There you go. Quick check on the markets. My dog is barking now. Gold’s down 19. So, you know, kind of stabilizes. This could be the pause. That refreshes. All right. Have a great day, everyone. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy.

I sure hope you enjoyed the show, which was brought to you today by Fortuna Mining, who just released their third quarter earnings last week and came back with a record quarter, especially with the elevated gold price. Fortuna Mining had record attributable earnings of $50.5 million and also free cashflow of $56 million in the quarter and perhaps even more significantly as they are nearing completion of their Linderra Leech Pad expansion program where Haganosa mentioned in our call last week that between Linderra and the phasing out of their San Jose mine, they may be looking at $150 to $200 less and all in sustaining costs going into 2025.

So a great quarter for Fortuna. A lot to look forward to going forward. And I’ll link the end of this call to the call we did with Fortuna last week if you would like to find out more. So thanks again to Fortuna. Thanks to you for watching. Appreciate you being here and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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