Summary
Transcript
And if you want to get a better handle on the geo-economic tsunami that is coming our way as an extension of topics we’ve discussed here on mercantilism and geo-economics in particular. The first we will unveil how Apple and Amazon invade your home from a perspective you have never seen before. The second is we will note the changes in Korea and ask the important questions that force us all to think what comes next for the BRICS G7 game of chess we are all pawns in. We will also discuss gold yesterday. So stay tuned for much more than you bargained for.
All right. Let’s start with the markets. Catching my breath there. The dollar is unchanged. 10 year yields are 384 up one. The S&P 500 is up seven handles continuing yesterday’s rally at 5465. The VIX is 1624 bouncing around and unchanged a little higher. Gold is 2461 up a very solid almost 14 bouncing after yesterday. We will discuss that chart you’re looking at right there in a minute. Silver up an even more impressive. We’ll put that up for you there. Many of us are silver bugs. Silver recouping all and then some. At 2817, 2018 up 61.
Copper is 411 up 7. WTI is 7811 up 48. Nat gas is 223 up 2. Crypto. Bitcoin is 58808 up 121. Ethereum is 2641 minus 22. Platinum and Palladium are neck and neck now. Platinum is 938. Platinum is 940. Up $6 and up $16. Grains are all up. Soy is up 4 cents at 998. Under $10. That’s sad. I’m such a soybean person historically. Corn is unchanged bid at 386 and wheat is up almost 8 cents at 560 spot 20. All right the gold chart. You may recall yesterday we created a trend line for you and the point was here’s the trend line.
Let’s bring it out to a dollar to an hour and see how it looks. There’s the trend line there and the thing I said about this trend line was you want to see how the market acts when it gets to it. If it gets through it you do not want to buy it for a day trade unless it goes through it and comes back up within the hour within leaves a long wick and that’s what happened yesterday. What is going on today? Well this trend line is no longer worth anything to us so we’re going to bring it over here.
Now why is that relevant? Well it’s relevant because if you go out to the four hour you’ll see this. This is where that original trend line was when we just moved. Back to the one hour. See this pattern here? This is the one hour. Let’s start this over for everyone. This is the trend line we drew yesterday and this is the break of it and this is seemingly a new trend line. See this behavior here? That’s a buy algo. See this behavior here? That was a buy algo. How we act coming out of the algo is what you care about.
So if we come out of the algo and rally then there’s more buying than selling after the algo. If we come out of the algo and sell off then there was really only one short cover of buying. Now if you take this line and you bring it over here and you say there there’s your new algo. He’s buying a lot more than last time. He’s buying for a longer period than last time and lo and behold see this behavior right here? That’s not an algo. That’s the market getting away from the algo.
The market gold could be back up to the 2480 range again. I’m not predicting it but once again here’s your new line. If the market comes back to this line you don’t want to buy it below the line. If the market keeps bouncing off or near the line and going higher then you’re fine. That’s the gold market. The silver market is actually much simpler. The silver market says we have been oversold relative to gold and we’re going to make up for some lost time. Here’s your algo buying. That might be an algo.
It doesn’t look it to me. This seems obvious. This is the short covering here. We’ve covered the metals. I want to get to these bigger picture concepts because they’re going to affect you and your children drastically as well as hopefully have something meaningful to add to your current life. There’s the front page. Here’s why ANZ bank sees 2550 gold by end of year. That’s a bullish report. The Federal Reserve does not own gold. That’s a free report, a free analysis and Goldman looks at the Escondida copper strike cost. Very good analysis of the financials and the effect on the companies behind that.
Moving onward. Yesterday’s CPI. There’s the summary of the Goldman Sachs analysis. July CPI rose 0.17 month over month roughly in line with expectations. The composition was mixed as large declines in the volatile used cars and air first components were offset by above trend increases in car insurance and rent components. There’s the key numbers. Stocks rallied. It was favorable for a rate cut, but net net slightly mixed, but net net slightly favorable, but gold sold off. There were too many longs. Stocks rallied. There weren’t enough longs apparently, but people pared back their bets on rate cuts.
I would have to say that the market was really more interested in the economic numbers coming out. We have retail sales tonight. You may see that before you see this. There you have it. Let’s get on to the two things that I want to talk about. Apple is seeking new sources of revenue. It is moving forward with development of a pricey tabletop home device that combines an iPad-like display with a robotic limb. The company now has a team of several hundred people working on the device which uses a thin robotic arm to move around a large screen.
The product which relies on actuators to tilt the display up and down and make it spin 360 degrees would offer a twist on home products like Amazon’s Echo Show 10 and Meta’s discontinued portal. All right. I want to talk about this because this goes back to some things that I think are very important. Your home is the customer. There are two models for making your product if you’re selling one indispensable in a home. You sell them the hardware or you sell people the software. Now, Amazon sells the software, the service, what you consume, the goods, the services, the thing that you interact with, the platform.
Apple likes to show you the hardware, the portal, how you don’t talk to me about Siri and all. Forget about that. Let’s go back to their model, right? How you consume the PC, the iPhone, the iPad, the robotic arm and both of these there’s a line in your house drawn. Amazon rules everything outside the outlet. They go into the computer line. They are the service that you see. They project the service that you consume. Apple owns everything inside the house. Apple owns everything coming out of the they own the iPhone, the iPad, the computer.
It’s very similar to the electrician’s model. Electricians make money two ways by wiring houses and then by selling things that plug into the outlet, right? Amazon wires your house. Apple sells you things that plug into the outlet. Now, once these rules are established and these businesses operate that way, they then seek to compete in other areas. Apple will sign up or develop software that’s proprietary that you can use on their phone in your house. Amazon will develop hardware to put in your house. These are home invasion things. The dividing line for these two models is the outlet.
It’s the drywall. It’s the inside the house versus coming into the house. What is, for example, what is Echo? Echo is Amazon’s attempt to put something physical in your house. Where’s that Google? I don’t know. I don’t have them on Alexa. In your house and the presence of that thing in your house makes it easier for them to sell. Okay. What does Apple do? Apple says, well, you’re on our device. We may as well build the software that you interact with stuff. It’s like the Apple Shopping Network instead of Amazon. Now, to the extent that these models have succeeded or failed, you create fallbacks.
We’ll give that some other time, but Apple has the walled garden model. You’re there for the phone. You’re there for the thing, right? Whereas Amazon is there for the service. Okay. There’s actually a gender thing here. Men like the hardware and women like the software. Women like the service. They appreciate the service. Men think the cool thing to hold in their hand. Now, the latest foray into this is Apple. Apple is going to create a robot arm with an iPad attached to it. What will this robot arm be? Well, I’ll read it to you.
The robot arm will be, excuse my scrolling, the babysitter for your child, the playmate, the TV, the teacher, the dad. It will become a substitute for all interaction with your child. Now, that’s a bit black-pilled, I know, but that’s the risk. If you become lazy or preoccupied or don’t think about what you want to do, it becomes the toy your child plays with, but it’s not just playing with it. The toy ends up teaching the child because the toy has an iPad face. And I’m just telling you this is what’s going on.
So again, Amazon sells everything up to the outlet. They used to, right? To get you interested. And Apple sells everything inside the walls of your home. So Apple is using their technology to put, you know, echo or whatever these other products are called out of business by saying ours is more helpful. So it’s a tabletop robot. You know, go play with your robot. So on the table, you learn chemistry, you do things, great applications, great tool, but parents have to be vigilant. All right. The next thing, I’m not going to get into the details of the next thing because I’m working them out myself, but I’m just going to share this with you.
It’s tied to, you know, mercantilism. It’s tied to the BRICS G seven war. It’s tied to the ideology versus economics battle that’s going on. And it’s tied to historically what happened in Germany. So here’s the news. Now I know it’s not going to happen tomorrow, but South Korean president Yoon laid out the blueprint for establishing a unified Korea and said the freedoms enjoyed in the South must be extended to the frozen kingdom of the North. Yoon said they will create a North Korean human rights fund to support activists and offer to create a working level consultation body with North Korea while he added they’re already, they’re ready to begin political and economic cooperation.
If North Korea takes the initial step to denuclearize, how likely is this? Not very likely, but they’re talking about it now. This is what’s going to happen down the road. Five, 10 years from now, if we don’t blow ourselves up, the North and South are going to get together again. And what will that mean? You know, the North’s going to push back on this. Everybody’s playing to their home crowd. I’m going to ask you some questions here, right? Take a look at that picture. North Korea and South Korea together, Japan right there.
Right. What happens if the Korea’s unite? What does it signal to world leaders? What does it imply about the battle between ideology versus economics? Ideology is how we’re focused right now. And economics is how they’re focused. It’s almost like abstract versus reality. What happens when, what happened when Germany reunited? How do geoeconomics, mercantilism, ideological differences and regional economics factor in big, huge, okay? What does it mean to your country and to you? What does it mean to the EU, Western thought, Eastern thought, BRICS, Enbridge, the global negotiation? Who will broker such a deal? Imagine if it’s China.
One thing is for sure, like the Berlin wall falling, it will shake the world economically, ideologically, and set the table for decades of behavior as the reunification of Germany did. It would sweep the table and be a triumph for one ideology over the other. Why is this going to be discussed more? Because South Korea is increasingly being isolated and they’re a powerhouse, right? They are ideologically Western, but geographically they’re Eastern. They have to get along with their neighbors. What better way than to partner with North Korea? Now, genetically they’re the same, but ideologically they’re far apart.
There’s going to be ways around that. South Korea is going to pay North Korea to be their friend again. North Korea is going to provide them with customers. South Korea is going to provide them with manufacturing. Actually, North Korea has got plenty of manufacturing, but you could see how this happens. What did it say for the US when the Berlin wall fell? Well, who benefits when the DMZ gets dismantled in Korea? Do we benefit? Do they benefit? Well, trade-wise they benefit because all trade is local now. Ideologically, there will be a compromise. That’s it.
I mean, that’s what’s going on. The world is… This would be the thing that just ends all the mercantilism. I mean, the mercantilism would actually get bigger, but it would end it regionally. Regionally, they would be unified. It would just make Japan the odd man out. Believe me, Japan and Korea do not have a good history. Japan really laid waste to Korea back in the day. I have some friends that explained it to me. So that’s it. Apple will become your child’s babysitter, tutor, playmate, if you’re not careful. And if the Korea is united, you have to ask yourself, who wins? How does it affect you? What happens to the East versus the West? That’s it.
I think it’s important. Back to the markets. Well, there you have it. Gold starts to move. Silver leads the race. This is really good. Really good because the dollar is nowhere. It’s almost like the metals lead the dollar going lower now. And then after the dollar goes lower and news comes out, the metals retrace and then they lead again. Interesting. Well, we’re going towards the BRICS Summit. And those who have to buy will continue to buy. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals, who we encourage you to contact for your next gold or silver order.
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