Vince Lanci: What We Learned From Yesterdays Fed Meeting | Arcadia Economics

Treasuries, they think, are on a rate cut path build a less negated by data events. Why? Well, they think that everyone’s too short treasuries. They think that the treasury cycle is going to turn and they think that the market will start to, in an orderly fashion, discount treasuries being bought. And if treasuries are going to be bought because of rate cut, then you’re also discounting the dollar weaker and gold higher. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day.

And now here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and in today’s Market Rundown, we’re going to update you on the BRICS. Quick update there. A little quick recap of the Fed and touch on some base metals. Okay, tentatively titled Fed Day Hangover. I don’t know if that’s a good title or not, but we’ll just leave it there for the moment. Before we do that, we’re going to go to the markets themselves. So let’s do that. The dollar is, that’s the gold-silver chart weekly. The dollar is $1,049 up 20, continuing the bounce of late yesterday.

Ten-year yield is $431 unchanged. S&P 500 is strong, only down 4.5 handles this morning after more new all-time highs. The gold is $23.11 down 12 bucks. Silver is $29.19 down 48 cents. We’ll touch on that in a second. Copper is up about half a penny at $4.51. WTI is $78.12 down 27 cents. Natural gas is $288, well off the highs now down a penny. Bitcoin had a bounce yesterday, but back on its behind $67,800 and change down $328 and Ethereum is $3,500 down $58. Platinum Palladium are both down. Platinum down more than Palladium today.

$8.97 down $9 for Palladium. Platinum $9.48 down $14. And the grains, we’ve got the usual mixed bag, but it’s not the usual rolls being played. Soybeans are perfectly unchanged at $11.72. Corn is up 4 cents. Give you a little more height there. There you go. And wheat is up 8 cents. So we’re kind of back to the normal behavior there. Okay, just looking at the prices for a moment. Yesterday’s price action was CPI came in very, well, relatively soft. And in doing so, it rallied a risk on, it ignited a risk on rally.

And that dragged stocks, bonds, gold, silver, copper, everything higher. And then as the day waned on, and then the Fed decision came out, we’ll discuss that in a second, but the Fed decision made everything retrace a little bit. The problem is it made gold and silver retrace more than stocks. So I think the market is going back to its old ways a little bit. So just be aware of that. And we’ll get to those details in a second. But the gold market and the silver market are under pressure now. And it’s not unhealthy pressure.

It’s basically the stragglers that are long need to get out. And I do think we, I do think we’re going to have another washout low or small. And I think that’s going to be where the market could bottom, but it could take a month or two. Remember, you know, I said sideways choppy over the next month or two is probably what I want. At least, at least what I hope for. Okay. Yesterday, we put a, we left a lot on the playing field yesterday. Here’s the CPI report. Here’s gold’s path forward, which actually gets into what I just touched on now.

That went out this morning at 7 a.m. Here’s the Fed day recap and analysis, a very in depth explanation of what happened and China gold and dollar death. We unlocked one of those and well, there you go. That’s it. And then you saw what we did yesterday. The dollar can end up lower on the day. It did. Gold and silver could end up higher. Okay. Bricks update. Now I just want you to step back a little bit. We’re all interested in what the bricks are doing in M trade. And probably there aren’t many people that are more interested than I am.

But, you know, fortunately I have a lot of reading and experience and analysis under my belt on all this stuff. So stepping back for a second, as we approach, just looking at it through the eyes of Russia and China, as we approach the October summit, you’re going to see more and more press coverage in the East. And that’s because Russia is running the show this year. And Russia is like the U S in a sense that they’re big on propaganda and they’re big on raising awareness, right? So everything that comes out, remember last year, everything that was said last year was said by Russia and contradicted by China, but Russia would, some people in Russia would say one thing.

And you know, the point is that there’s a lot of hype surrounding this and it’s not necessarily, it’s not pointed at the West, even though it is pointed at the West. How could you not pay attention to it? It’s pointed at their own people. They’re kind of like cheerleading. They’re helping them feel good about themselves. And, and that’s why the West is, you know, the Western press is going to continue to say, Oh, we’re going to ignore that. And we’re not going to pay attention to it. Uh, that’s just nonsense. It’s just them talking to their own people, which is a crucial error.

Uh, but they can’t talk about it and fan the flames. All right. So, so you’re going to see more and more information come out on this and it’ll be harder to, uh, differentiate between what’s news and what’s hype. Well, enjoy it, read it all and you make your own decision. But this brief conversation is going to hopefully give you some perspective on what’s coming. Like, so for example, when Pepe Escobar writes about it, you know, he’s, he’s very well connected and he certainly knows the industry. He’s also going to be a voice from that region.

He’s a connection from the East to the West. And so, you know, he has a lot of intelligence information as well. He’s talking about things now that, that, uh, in his roast recent writings, he’s giving you an update on what’s going on, kind of like a real time update. So it’s surrounded in pros and, and, and, and it’s, and it’s, and it’s accurate. Just know that, you know, uh, this is, Russia wants information out there and they’re getting it out there and the West keeps ignoring it, but it’s true. Okay.

So moving on from that. So some factual things M trade is operational and growing with the BS a part of it. That’s a fact. Okay. The four counter parties that started it, well, they were really kind of like front men for the bigger players and it worked. And so now they’re all going to start announcing, we’re going to join it. We’re going to join it. We’re going to join it. So it’s almost like someone else started it and the Saudi Arabians joined it. The Russians will join it, you know, all these other people will join it, but they’re already a part of it.

Okay. So it works at the technological level. And they have a lot of the deals hammering out, but they do have some loose ends. Remember, there’s going to be, they’re going to show their best face right now. Gold and the unit concept are being heavily discussed, bad emotion, spelling there in certain circles, close to adoption, whether they adopt the units rules per se, we’ll cover that again here, uh, over the next week or so, uh, whether they adopt the units rules or not to me is irrelevant because the units premise is solid.

They’re going to adopt it or a version of it. And that means you’re going to have 40% gold, or more in whatever they use to guarantee each other’s international local commodity trades. Okay. Uh, as I just said, Russia is driving the news cycle. Now we’ll continue to keep it in the Eastern press. The West will continue to ignore it. All right. US, the US, Saudi Arabia dollar packed expired on June 9th, making it less politically onerous for countries to transact in their own currencies. Now, some will tell you it wasn’t official. Some will tell you it was official, whether it was or was not, does not matter.

This clears a political, uh, this removes a political obstacle. Is USA going to be mad? Is USA not going to be mad? Well, they didn’t call the dates over and they didn’t call us for another date, you know? So like it’s kind of on them to, to call us to Saudi Arabians can say, but they were already doing this. They were already, you know, transacting in you on transacting in, you know, uh, uh, uh, gold really actually, and transacting in rubles and transacting in rupees. They’re already doing that, you know, uh, uh, but I don’t mean to minimize it.

You know, one of those guys, Oh, they’re already doing it. What’s the big deal? No, no, no, no. It’s a big deal. No, it’s a big deal because every time they do a deal in another currency, they’re not doing it. The old dollars. And then they look at the dollars and they’re banking and they say, well, what do I have this for? And they get rid of them. The dollars float around there and pals kind of vacuum them up or the dollar goes down. Financial repression is really coming here, but that’s another conversation.

Um, an obstacle you’re going to start seeing it’s been there since the beginning, but they’re not going to talk about it. There will be trust issues down the road related to central counterparty custodianship of gold blockchain or not. Okay. I’m Saudi Arabia. You are China. I’m going to sell you oil. You’re going to pay me and you want at the end of the month, we’ll square up any differences that we need in gold. Okay. That’s great. Where’s the gold? It’s got to be somewhere. Well, we’re going to use blockchain to verify it.

Yeah, I know. I know you’re going to use blockchain to verify. And that makes people much more trusting and more comfortable. You know, it’s like, it’s like a proof of life sort of thing, you know? Uh, but, uh, who’s, who’s watching the gold? If you, a lot of these guys don’t trust each other either, you know, uh, we’re not talking about, you know, uh, a group of Democrats, uh, that democratic nations, let’s not talk about Democrats or Republicans. So I guess what I’m trying to say is that, is that all the details aren’t ironed out yet.

And when you’re dealing with a physical asset, such as gold or silver, it’s real. And so somebody has to see it. Somebody has to watch it. And I have believed since the beginning that China is moving to be one of the major hubs. So, uh, you can store your gold in China. And if you trust them, you know, uh, you’ll store your gold in China, kind of like everyone trusted the U S for years, but there’s probably multiple hubs. I don’t know how it’s going to operate, but look at it like an affiliate affiliated vaults, like the COMEX has or had anyway.

So, uh, look for problems down there, but you won’t hear about the problems though. After, after the conference, I’m just, there’s a lot more information. It’s going to come out. And if any of it is truly new, I’ll have, I’ll have an analysis for you, but until now, enjoy it, take it in and see what’s going on and just marvel at the complete tone deafness of the West as the world changes outside their window. You know, it’s like our political leaders just pull the shades down and say, nothing to see here.

Okay. CPI fed recap. I didn’t extend to one yesterday. I’m just going to read you a little bit of a report from IMG again, uh, uh, which I’ve attached at the bottom. The fed left interest rates change unchanged at five and a quarter, five and a half percent. They’re updated forecast leave 2024 growth and unemployment unchanged, but inflation projections are higher than previously thought. As they signal, they are on track to cut the policy rate only once this year. IMG thinks they will start in September with a higher chance to end up cutting rates by more treasuries.

They think are on a rate cut path, build a less negated by data events. What? Well, they think that everyone’s too short treasuries. They think that the treasury cycle is going to turn and they think that the market will start to in an orderly fashion discount treasuries, um, being bought. And if treasury is going to be bought because of rate cut, then you’re also discounting the dollar weaker and gold higher. That’s what they’re thinking. But the, the, the long story short is inflation is cooling. Pal is happy about that. He’s not going to pull the trigger.

He’s also looking at some other factors and, uh, but then stop the market from going up. The market thinks he’s going to ease. Right. So it really is a fight aluminum and copper. They also put out, uh, IG also put out their industrial metals monthly. And, uh, uh, again, their stuff is easy to read, uh, but it’s not, you know, vapid, right? Our monthly report looks at the performance of iron or copper aluminum and other industrial metals. In this month’s edition, we take a closer look at aluminum, aluminum, and discuss where we see prices headed in the second half of the year.

Now we had that full report at the bottom. We just went through that. The market news, nothing special there, nothing new. Uh, oh, I do want to comment on this. Brussels will impose tariffs over the 50 of up to 50% on Chinese electric vehicles, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risk starting a costly trade war with Beijing. These people are just idiots. I mean, they’re all idiots and they’re, they’re idiots who just don’t care. All right. If China makes a better product, then let’s say BMW, right? Then China’s going to, uh, sell more of those products.

And, uh, if the European union puts a tariff on those products, raising the price, then people won’t buy them anymore. They’ll buy domestically. So that’s your buy European, that’s your domestic push. The problem is, and this is, this always happens. If I make a BMW for $50,000 and you make a Chinese EV for $30,000 and the taxes, I’m exaggerating, but the taxes that come in on the EV bring it up to $70,000 in price. Well, BMW can raise their price to 69,000. See tariffs, even if you don’t buy the good that’s being tariffed, cause domestic inflation.

Those of you old enough to remember in the 1980s when inflation was very high and American cars were made of shit, you know, the, the people with money were buying BMWs. You’re like, Oh, that’s expensive. It’s a foreign car. Those are expensive. You can’t get those as good as you get as cheaply as you can. And we thought it’s cause they were foreign notes cause we were paraffing them and we were terrifying them to subsidize, to keep alive our, um, our auto industry. So it’s happening again in New York. Europe is just a mess.

You know, the U S is going to do the same thing, but it hopefully won’t be as egregious. Uh, geopolitics, the usual stuff is in there. Hamas is saying, we’re going to do what you need to do. And Israel saying, no, they’re not, uh, Russia, but you know, a necessary update. Russia’s nuclear powered submarine and other Naval vessels arrived in Cuba for a five day visit to the communist Island in a show of force amid spiraling US Russian tensions, according to AFP news agency. See, this is Russia, right? Russia’s pushing back, you know, how would you like to, how would you like to have some Russian ships on the great lakes? That’s what it’s like for them to see our military, you know, in the black sea, right? That’s, that’s how they feel.

I’m not saying that I agree with how they feel, but I’m saying, you know, let’s bring some ships and put them in Cuba and see how you like that. And we are a long way from having, uh, uh, Bobby and John Kennedy from running this country data on deck today is PPI, right? So PPI is pretty important and you can have any nice reaction on that. Uh, and Friday is consumer sentiment. And we have the ING reports as promise. These are, they’re very good. They’re, you don’t have to spend a lot of time reading the mother.

Anyway, I’m Vince. Have a great day. See you tomorrow. Well, thanks for tuning into today’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. Show is brought to you each day by miles Franklin precious metals, who we encourage you to consider for your next gold or silver purchase or sale. Miles Franklin has pricing that’s among the best in the industry on most products and Arcadia is proud to be a licensed miles Franklin representative and happy to help whenever you have questions or want to place an order where this week’s silver special is one ounce silver Britannias for only $3 and 15 cents over spot silver Britannia is the sovereign coin from the Royal mint in England and has the added advantage of being IRA eligible place an order, get more information or speak with me directly.

Call us at 833-326-4653 and we’ll be happy to help you get whatever you need. So thanks for watching and we look forward to hearing from you. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.