Vince Lanci: How Trump Verdict Affects Election Gold Silver | Arcadia Economics

Expect gold, silver, and vix to climb between now and then unless certainty returns. So we’re in a situation now where if you’re in a card game between certainty and uncertainty, you know, they’re playing uh hearts, uncertainty is just a position to win and certainty has to shoot the moon in order to win. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day. And now here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey and in today’s morning meeting we’re going to be talking about politics.

We’re going to be talking about the Trump verdict, what it means for the election, what that means for the markets, and well the nation itself and without getting too editorial about it, these things are all going to be market focused but you have to talk politics here and not in a partisan way hopefully. All right, let’s start with the markets. Okay, we’ll look at some news too. Let’s start with the markets. The dollar is down 13 at 104.60, 10 year yields are 455 unchanged, the S&P 500 is 52.26, down 8 handles, the VIX is 14.39, down 7, gold is 23.43, down 20 cents, silver is 31.28, up 12 cents, a bounce after yesterday’s drubbing, copper is 4.61 down a penny and a half, continuing yesterday’s sell-off, WTI is 70.32, it had been climbing for the last two or three sessions and yesterday it took a real shot to the gut, only up 11 cents today.

Natural gas, 2.34, it went down yesterday, it’s also down a little bit today, down a penny, Bitcoin 68,000 and change, essentially unchanged, Ethereum 37.84 up about a percentage point, platinum, palladium both up, palladium up a dollar, platinum up nine dollars, you can see that relationship. The interest in that market is if someone’s unwinding a very big platinum, palladium spread, palladium is 948 and platinum is 1035. Okay, grains, grains are all strong, relatively uniformly, okay, so soybeans 1211 up 9 cents, corn 441 up 2, 3 cents, wheat 694 up 5 cents.

All right, the main event, divided we fall. Okay, let’s start with the home page. These are stories that were done before for the most part, but they’re extremely relevant now and need to be touched base with as we look at how this verdict will affect the calculus going into the election, which affects the markets themselves. On the top left hand side, this is the data from a poll and it’s very disturbing. I would recommend, if you’re interested in learning more about how divided we are going into this election, this is a very good, very objective poll and something that was alerted to me back in December by Michael Oliver and we just talked about this the other day with Tom and Palisades.

So it’s extremely current events and it’s extremely relevant if you’re looking for insight into where the divisions actually run. You’ll find that the divisions aren’t the problem. Both sides are acting the same way in reaction to the division and that is an increasing call for violence, an increasing justification for removal of democratic privilege and freedoms. This post here, this was a founders post. It was purely about the election and it was not too long ago, about a month ago, and it was about the election adding uncertainty and that’s where that’s what we latched onto.

We’re going to include some of that in this conversation so you can see more directly how this can snowball the Trump verdict. And we have the verdict and we also have how he responds to that. Anyway, moving to the events themselves. All right, so we’re going to go through the process of what this implies for the election and therefore the markets. First of all, everything about this election increases uncertainty. Elections are supposed to close the book on uncertainty. We’re supposed to have our moving on, however you want to call it, peaceable handover.

Well, we’re in a situation now, excuse my hair, where uncertainty is increasing going into the election and will not be resolved, likely will not be resolved on election day. All right, so just tagging that thought process onto what happened yesterday. Trump was found guilty and he will appeal. Biden’s legal team, this is me talking, right, my opinion. Biden’s legal team will go state by state seeking to minimize Trump’s electoral footprint while Trump’s lawyers seek to counter that. So as a felon, he can run. We had one run before as a convicted felon. Whether the appeal goes through or not is not the point.

But Biden’s attorneys, I would think will go state by state since where every state has its own rights or its own policies and they will seek to minimize his footprint, if not take him off the ballot altogether. I don’t know, this is what lawyers do and Trump’s people will be seeking to counter that. And that’s now. Now, this will damage Trump’s totals. He’s already gone from, depending on who you’re talking about, who you’re talking to, he’s already gone from 53% chance of winning to 49%. I don’t give much credence into polls like that.

But I do give much credence into the damage that this will cause, not just to Trump’s campaign or Trump’s chances, but to the turnout of voters in general. All right. This damage will, this will damage Trump’s totals, but it also may damage Biden’s in terms of turnout. Think about people on the fence. Think about people that they just might not come out, right? This might suppress democratic turnout a little bit. I don’t think it’s going to suppress Republican turnout. As long as Trump fights, people will vote. The election will not be over until January if either one of them runs and loses.

And that’s another opinion of mine. If the election were decided in November, it would be over. But between the end of the election and the actual changing of the guard, if it happens, there will be fights. And we have the details of how those fights will go down at the constitutional law level. The BRICS Summit will be right before our election. Last year, the BRICS Summit was in August this year. It’ll be in October. Almost seems intentional. So think about that. You know, this is all going to affect markets extremely a lot if it hasn’t already.

Expect gold, silver, and VIX to climb between now and then unless certainty returns. So we’re in a situation now where if you’re, if you’re, if you’re in a card game between certainty and uncertainty, you know, they’re playing, let’s call it hearts. Uncertainty is just positioned to win. And certainty has to shoot the moon in order to win. Okay. There has to be an event, strip the analogy away. There has to be an event that collapses all this uncertainty, like, you know, clearing the table type of thing. And it would be something like Trump and Biden, if neither one of them run, that’s an increase in certainty, right? If Trump for some reason is not going to run.

Okay, could happen, right? I mean, this is going to be a slog now. Then Biden won’t have to run. Neither one of them runs, you could have a tentative piece, right? Other examples, I don’t know, but there are, there’s a lot more black swan stuff creeping up here. So anyway, you don’t want to be short gold and silver and actually the VIX in this situation. And it’s, it’s, it’s real. It’s been going on for a while. All right. Speaking specifically to uncertainty, T.S. Lombard said in a report that we shared with founders on the front page, depending on who wins the election, right? We’re, we’re done with the verdict.

He’s going to appeal that and it’s going to take time and it’s going to take energy. And you know, we all have limited bandwidth. If Biden wins the election, electoral fraud cases and similar challenges from Trump are likely. So like what happened in 2020, but it’s going to be more pointed, more focused and probably more evidentiary. On the other hand, if Trump wins, you actually will have a table turn. There’ll be a constitutional crisis or a repeat of January 6th. So if Trump wins, I believe that the Biden side will seek to delay the inauguration, will seek to, there could be a crisis, you know, the constitutional crisis, a military crisis.

I mean, we’re talking banana republic shit here. Okay. Or repeat of January 6th is likely. And that would be repeated January 6th with Biden supporters storming. Now, this is not the sixties anymore. You know, uh, uh, this is not the eighties anymore. This is the, the radical wing of the left have been training for stuff like this, you know, and Tifa, how are we saying, uh, you know, during the riots and in 2020 during COVID, you know, we’re probably going to have summer riots this year. I mean, this is, this is, this is what they want on some level.

It’s, it’s perverse. Okay. Here’s some evidence of that effect in a leading indicator risk, rising risks of post-election market volatility, both the Biden and Trump campaigns have been beefing up their legal teams on the expectations of a prolonged bout of post-election legal mayhem. This may not show up as well as I’d like it to, but it’s kind of like this. It’s a timeline from May through January 25th. Number one court rulings. We just had those number two, the next signpost. I mean, there’s going to be appellate cases as well, but the next signpost is, is party conventions, right? In July, you have the Republican national convention.

In August, you have the democratic national convention. And I believe the democratic one is in Chicago, just like it was, uh, in 68 number three campaign home stretch. Uh, I think this might be inaccurate now because they’ve changed their dates on the debates, but there’s going to be debates, you know, I mean, Biden could boycott a debate because he doesn’t want to debate a felon. This stuff is, you know, uncertainty by gold, by silver, electoral college certification challenges. All right, here we go. On December 11th, there’s a deadline for states to appoint electors.

That’s going to be watched on December 17th, vote of state electors for president and VP on December 25th, deadline electoral votes received by the Senate president on January 3rd, the house speaker will be elected before, okay. Uh, the, uh, uh, the inauguration January 6th, Congress counts the electoral votes and it’s also an insurrection anniversary. So there you go. This is what you have to look forward to. And, uh, well, that’s why the world’s buying gold and that’s why the world’s buying silver. Let’s go to the market news, shift gears a little bit.

Uh, the U S economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than initially reported, primarily reflecting softer consumer spending on goods. So GDP, uh, came in and previous GDPs, which were cooked higher, were revised lower. Uh, the staggering electricity demand needed for, to power next generation technology is forcing us to rely on yesterday’s fuel source call. Yes. Uh, look in Europe, when they shut down nuclear power plants, they had to sneak coal back in there because you turn it on quickly and, uh, it’s a, it’s abundant and it’s laying around.

So, uh, ESG is a, is a joke. ESG is not a joke. They’re going to come back with that, but the whole, uh, renewable energy thing is a joke. All right. Uh, U S officials have slowed the issuing of licenses to chip makers, such as Nvidia and advanced micro devices for large scale accelerator shipments to the middle East. Okay. So the walls are going up. Geopolitics, Israel, we’re not stopping. This has come up a lot, uh, very recently and it’s probably going to pass quickly, but I want to, I want to tie it in with the, uh, the verdict news and I want to tie it in with the risk.

The bone of contention, which the president seems to have, uh, uh, overturned was Ukrainians are not allowed to fire into, after a certain distance into Russia’s border. And that inhibits them from defending themselves. And I’ll get to that in a second. And the way we prohibit them is by not giving them the long distance missiles that they need. Now, if just being objective about this, we don’t want them shooting too far into Russia because that, you know, makes things, it adds more uncertainty. On the other hand, Russia is using missile bases from deeper in to hit Ukraine.

So you can hit a long distance Russian missile with whatever we’re giving the Ukrainians because we’ll only go to, let’s say 10 miles on the other side of the line. Uh, and that makes it hard for the Ukrainians to defend themselves. Now, we all know this will be abused. We all know this will cause problems. And the, the, the, the reason that it was not permitted was because we thought the bigger risk would be to provoke the Russians, uh, and to do some collateral damage in areas that are not missile related.

We see what’s going on with Israel right now. Uh, and they just voted on that and they, they voted to not to read, they re voted to not give Ukraine permission to do that. But yesterday, Biden, I’m not sure if it’s a special privilege or something, but Biden said, no, they could do it. So this is crazy. All right. It kind of reminds me of, and again, you know, it reminds me of, uh, Clinton, you know, I mean, the parallels there and it’s not just Clinton, but Clinton was the one that we saw when a president has a crisis that he can’t control the spin on or news that he wants to get off the headline.

There’s other news that can happen. So, uh, certainly if we give permission to Ukraine to do that, then this war could escalate and, uh, well, you could have a new headline tonight saying Russia fires missiles into Poland. I don’t know, but you get my point. Um, China has told other governments will now join the Swiss peace conference and said the conference does not meet its condition since Russia is not attending. There you go. With Korean leader, Kim guided a demonstration of large scale, multiple rocket launchers, cornered KCNA. Uh, there you have it.

Today’s data, today’s data is PCE and it’s expected to soften, but, uh, not as much as, uh, most people think it will to get the fed to actually ease in, uh, July. So here we go. Goldman says we estimate that core PC increased 0.26 month over month of pace. Well below the 0.36 average of the prior three months, but probably not sufficient for a July cut, if maintained in May and June, right? Goldman recently pushed its first rate cut forecast from July to September. So they’ve gone from six rate cuts in January to basically zero, right? And that’s where we are now.

I’ve also reattached, uh, the, uh, election for premium, uh, uh, uncertainty aspect. Uh, this one here, that one there, and you can see this, this is a lot on the site. Going back to the charts, right? We want to talk about the destruction, for lack of a better word, it’s going to be hourly or the Dale. It’s going to daily, the daily. Okay. So you have silver having a nice big down day and, uh, take a step back and say, we are now in a wild range. That’s going to be contented.

The market, if, if things get normal for this, the path to normalcy is for this market to decrease in volatility and stay in these ranges and then base for a bigger move, much bigger move higher or a crack of this line, let’s say. Okay. So by the way, this trend line, if you look at this trend line, it’s a, if we break that trend line, I’m nervous. Trend lines broken sideways on trend lines. It’s trend lines that are broken, sharply lower or held and go higher are trend lines. So don’t worry about this line.

If we go through it sideways, gold, well, gold, you know, gold cracked and it stayed cracked. So I would like to see for this, for this complex to go higher. I would like to see silver shop around and gold regained this area. And then they get back on the same page and boom, it’s off to the races. Do not sell silver short. That’s a metaphorical statement. Um, I want to talk about this today, but I’m just going to give you a teaser. We’ll talk about it next week. Silver is going to be collateral in the new bricks coin.

It is. That’s why India is buying it. That’s why India is repatriating their gold. That’s why everyone wants their collateral back. Silver is going to be monetized as a monetary store value collateral. And that’s a disaster, uh, for, for industry. It’s going to be a big deal. Anyway, um, Vince, have a great weekend. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince. Brought to you each day by miles, Franklin precious metals where this week’s special is 2023 dated one ounce silver Cougarands from the South African mint for only $3 and 10 cents over spot.

And even with the price rallying, fortunately, the premiums are still on the lower side and to get a full price list or place an order for silver Cougarands at $3 and 10 cents over spot. Just email us at Arcadia at miles, Franklin, and we’ll be happy to get you set up with anything you need. And as always, thanks for watching. Hope you’re having a great day out there. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

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