Vince Lanci: Golds Battle Around $2300 Starts Now | Arcadia Economics

➡ The market is expected to remain steady for a while, possibly hovering around 2,300. This is due to a big buyer keeping the market stable, and it’s suggested to be prepared for this sideways movement. In other news, Apple’s revenue has declined due to falling iPhone sales and increased competition, but the company is buying back its own shares. Lastly, Sony Pictures and Apollo Global Management have made a $26 billion all-cash offer for Paramount Global, indicating that cash is currently cheap and rates may decrease.

This war exists for one, excuse my spell, reason only, to give the West time. Time for what? Well, no one can be exactly sure of the specifics, but part of that time needed is for the monetary change coming. Part of that preparation is to make CBTC ready for the plebs. They’re accelerating that. That also means getting rid of cash. Buy up all the gold you can for the central banks, not just the bricks. It’s a race. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day. And now here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the market rundown.

And we’re going to be talking about the war in Ukraine quickly, some research from Goldman Sachs on gold and lithium in Australia. I have a little bit of a cold. And we’ll look at a couple of gold charts. So let’s get going. There’s the whole page. The dollar is 105.16, down 17. The US 10 year is 457 unchanged. ESP 500 is 50, 81, down 3 handles. The VIX is 1449. Down 18 basis points. Gold is down 550 at 2297. It’s going to hold around 2300 for the bulls and for the bears. They want it to go under 2300 significantly. Silver is 2646. Down 19. Copper is 448, up 2 cents a change. WTI is 7956, up 7 cents.

And natural gas is 184 spot 7 unchanged. Natural gas is higher because Europe’s natural gas is starting to pop a little bit. That’s US natural gas. It won’t correlate 100%, but it will pop a little bit. Bitcoin is 58,900 and change. Basically a change. Ethereum is 2964. Down 23 platinum. Platinum continue their reversal. Platinum is down half a buck at 935. And platinum is up 15 bucks almost at 964. There you have it. That’s the trade. I think people are piling into that now. Grains I think are all up again. Soybean coin wheat, set 1193, up 6 corn, 449, up 3 and wheat 618, up 15. So it’s all about wheat with corn trailing it. All right.

Why are we wasting money in Ukraine if we can’t win, if they can’t win? There is a sentence, there’s a quote from an old post I did about a year and a half ago called after this Ukraine wars over money will never be the same. That Zoltan Pozar talking about the Ukraine war and what it really is. It’s a line in the sand or demarcation. We have a link to that post there. It’s a very good post. It talks about the evolution of money and the Ukraine war seems to be the line of the sand. And I’m going to come back to that later on. But you got in the premium, we’ve got Goldman Sachs, Aussie Gold, and Lithium.

And we have some gold levels to talk about. So let’s talk about, let’s take a look at what Goldman has for us. They have, this is an equity report. I don’t know these companies, but they’re Australian majors that deal with lithium and gold. There are 25 gold charts alone here, specifically about the Australian gold mining industry. They have their companies that they pick, they like who to sell, who to buy. You’d have to know something about the industry itself a little bit better than I. There is Australian lithium and gold mining coverage. There’s all their commodity forecasts. We included that there as well. And buy these companies, sell those companies. If you look closely and you freeze the screen, you could probably get a clue what we’re talking about here.

IGO, PLS, LTR, CXO, MIN, NST, EVN, RL, CMM, DEG, and QOR. Some cool maps. If you’re trying to bone up on lithium production, that’s one of them. There’s several like that. And there’s a gold reserve map. Gold reserve map. Who has what and where. So very good report if you’re trying to get a handle on it. We want to talk about, well, that’s the markets. I want to talk about this first. Excuse my sniffles. Ukraine can’t win. Now, we’ve known this for some time. At the beginning of the war, we do this. But as time is going on, we kind of get comfortable thinking, well, we’re not losing so we can win. We’re not losing so we can win.

So I’m going to tell you, if you don’t know already, if you do know, just so you hear it again, say don’t forget, Ukraine can’t win. Why Ukraine can’t win? Well, they don’t have enough people. It’s demographics. They don’t have enough training. They don’t have enough weapons. They get them from us. They don’t have the manufacturing to make new weapons. They don’t have the talent to fight the war. This war exists for one, excuse my spelling, reason only to give the West time. Time for what? Well, no one can be exactly sure the specifics, but part of that time needed is for the monetary change coming. Part of that preparation is to make CBTC ready for the plebs.

They’re accelerating that. That also means getting rid of cash. Buy up all the gold you can for the central banks, not just the bricks. It’s a race. The world is in hold right now because this war and everyone’s gathering their things, you know, taking balls back from recess. The bricks are buying gold. The West is buying gold too. Don’t let them think they’re not. And prepare for the cascading fiat default potential that will come from it. When the war ends, the world’s going to be different. The longer the war goes on, the better the Russian economy gets. And we know that. We know that. Right? During a war, Russia’s economy gears up manufacturing. And when you gear up manufacturing for war goods, you end up gearing up manufacturing for consumer goods.

Okay. They had a consumer product industry, whether it was good or not is irrelevant, but they had one. They had an economy because they had a war machine. The factories that made bombs made refrigerators. That’s how it worked in Russia, in Soviet Russia. And all we’re doing is, you know, throwing fertilizer in their economy by letting them do this, by giving them a reason to make stuff. They’re going to improve. They’re going to improve their economy. Not to mention the fact that these embargoes or these sanctions are just driving the price of oil down for China to buy, but giving Russia a bigger lucrative marketplace. Russia is selling more oil at a lower price. They’re not even selling it in oil at a lower price.

But anyway, the longer the war goes on, the better Russian economy gets. So why would we do that? Why would we do that? We know we’re doing that. Why would we do it? We do it because we’re preparing for something bigger. And that’s something bigger is, you know, CBDC. Right. Why CBDC? Well, aside from the power grab, because they think that they need to do that to keep the tax base together so we can compete with the BRICS more efficiently. They don’t want us going there. All right. CBDC means you have to use their money. This is what mercantilism is about. Mercantilism is everyone gets little bits of paper and the king has all the gold and silver.

And the king has all the gold and silver. And he says what the silver and gold are valued out of the paper, but the paper doesn’t really exchange for silver and gold. The king uses his silver gold to trade internationally, like we will trade with the BRICS and the BRICS will trade with each other. But the people are captive in the country by the paper. The paper is not accepted in other countries anymore. There’s no international trade. This is part of the globalization. Anyway, Ukraine can’t win. So why are we fighting to buy us time markets? Let’s talk about gold for a second. Story time. Here is. This is a weekly chart of gold. Now, tell you a quick story.

Four weeks ago, when this week ended, I said to subscribers, you need to be bullish above the bottom of this wick and need to be bearish below it. Where you get in and where you get out is up to you. And at the time I was not bullish because these long weeks make me think the markets going to come off. But the point is you need to be bullish above this wick. The next week we finished strong, right? The next week we finished soft, but we stopped here, which was the bottom of this wick. But then we penetrated it this week, but remained in love with it. So which brings me to the next chart. The buyer here is the buyer back on that other wick.

This is macro discretionary buying. This is probably the same person. This is either a big, big macro fund, mine, or funds. Or it’s a sovereign wealth fund buying it. If it’s a sovereign law fund, we’re going to stay in this area and trade sideways for a long time. If it’s macro discretionary, we either want to rock it or crap out. I don’t know. But all these lines here, this is all the same type of buying. It doesn’t look very helpful when you look at it that way. But believe me, this is where the rally started right here. This is where the rally, this is where the life was caught on that one day. And then it tested it.

So this buyer is letting it come to them when they can. But this buyer is still there. So see this whole area of lines, treat this as a congestion area. If we get through it, you should assume that we’re going down, which means you should be speculatively speaking, you should be long now and stop yourself out somewhere in this area or below this area, depending on your paint tolerance. But this market is long above this congestion now. Now, if we get below this area, well, one of two things can happen. One, it will crap out. Or two, it will wick and then come back in here and then just go sideways. I’m betting on this market to go sideways for now.

And why am I betting on that? There’s the hourly. The hourly doesn’t look as obvious, but I wanted to break it out that way. The hourly, well, here, let’s go back to the real chart. Where’s gold trading? 2,300. We’re near a strike. And the battle starts now. If the macro-long discretionary guys are not going to sell, tactically speaking, and the banks have kept a lid on it, which they have right now, then the waiting game happens. This has been happening in gold forever. We get near a strike. The market is easily managed near that strike. And we see how long you can make the long in options and futures wait until they cry out, called time is on the bank side historically.

So sideways is bearish, right? But that’s the old days. The new days is, well, there’s a big buyer underneath and maybe sideways isn’t so bearish anymore. Anyway, that’s it. The point is, don’t be surprised if we go sideways and hover around 2,300 for a week or two. Really, don’t be surprised. I would like to see the market drop $15 and then go back and finish on changing it. Then I know that the sovereign buyer, where the big buyer, the macro buyer is still there. And then it’s an opportunity to double up on my position. But right now, flat is where it’s at for me. You might want to buy strength. If you’re a momentum trader, you might want to buy dips if you’re not.

I’m not a dip buyer. And you might want to just be long here with a stopout below that area. Finishing up with the news, I kind of skipped around today. Right? Ukraine can’t win market news. Well, Apple’s revenue declined for the fifth time in the past six quarters dragged down by ailing iPhone sales and new competition. But the stock finished higher because they’re buying their own shares. So bears are going to say, well, that’s because they’re not innovating. Well, they can spend their money on buying their own shares. And they’re right. Bulls are saying it doesn’t matter. They’re buying their own shares. So you have to ask yourself, is Apple buying the wrong stock? Right. I mean, John, it’s not buying their stuff anymore.

The other thing is Apple probably has something that they’re working on that they’ll announce it. And that’ll be another reason to buy the stock. Anyway, lots of news today. Nothing special. This one’s special to us. Sony Pictures and private equity firm Apollo Global Management have submitted an all cash $26 billion offer for Paramount Global. Now that’s significant for two reasons. One, it’s all cash. If it’s all cash, then cash is cheap. Meaning that tells me rates will come down. People are spending money as opposed to doing shares for shares. Apollo Global Management, well, Apollo Global Management, if you click on that, is going to take us right to the most recent report they have on which actually is about gold.

And Apollo is a pretty serious player. Anyway, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Have a great weekend. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancey brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals, where this week’s special is one ounce gold Australian kangaroos for only $59 over spot. Gold Australian kangaroos are one of the coins coming from one of the six sovereign mints and with the gold price pulling back recently, you can get your Australian kangaroos at only $59 over spot by emailing our katyat milesfranklin.com or calling 833-326-4653. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

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